Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton Hold Strong Leads in New York Ahead of Primary, Poll Finds

Trump holds a 36-point lead over Ted Cruz in New York, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll.


Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton hold double-digit leads in New York and are poised to regain their footing in their home state’s primaries next Tuesday, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll finds.

On the Republican side, Mr. Trump holds a 33-point lead over his closest rival, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, 54% to 21%, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz trails both, as the top pick of 18% of likely Republican primary voters.

Mrs. Clinton maintains a 14-point lead in the Democratic contest, outpacing Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders 55% to 41% among likely Democratic primary voters. The former secretary of state’s lead is built on strength among women, African-Americans and Democrats age 45 and older.

The survey results will be welcome news to the two front-runners, who have both lost ground in recent weeks. Mr. Trump is looking to bounce back from a decisive loss in last week’s Wisconsin primary, while Mrs. Clinton has lost eight of the last nine Democratic contests.

“Right now, the front-runners look like they will erase recent setbacks and add significantly to their delegate margins,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey. “New York is not likely to enhance the hopes of those trying to close the gap in the delegate hunt.”

Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump remain the clear leaders in their parties nominating contests. Mrs. Clinton has a particularly strong advantage because of her support from her party’s so-called superdelegates, the elected officials and other party leaders who have a say in determining the presidential nominee.

Mr. Trump is in a tougher spot because he is in a race to collect the 1,237 delegates required to clinch the nomination before the party gathers in Cleveland to determine the nominee. He has so far won 743. A big win in New York would help him reset his campaign narrative, after he surrendered delegates to the Cruz camp at a string of recent state party conventions.

On Monday, Mr. Trump, prompted by the result of the Colorado contest in which Mr. Cruz won all 34 delegates, complained that the GOP delegate-selection process, which differs from one state to the next, was established by party bigwigs to prevent political outsiders like him from winning the nomination. “The system is rigged, it’s crooked,” he said in an interview on Fox News.

At the same time, he acknowledged that two of his children won’t be able to vote in the New York primary because they missed the registration deadline. “They feel very, very guilty,” he said.

The Republican contest in New York, like the Democratic race, is limited to voters who have registered with the party.

Mr. Trump leads his two remaining rivals by at least a two-to-one margin among just about every demographic group in the New York electorate, among them women, college graduates and those primary voters who practice a religion—three groups with which he often struggles.

New York will award 95 Republican delegates next Tuesday. A candidate can win all of the delegates from any given congressional district if he eclipses the 50% mark...
And get this:
In the latest poll, New York Republicans were also asked about the biggest question hanging over the GOP contest: What should happen if no candidate enters the convention this summer with a majority of delegates, the threshold for clinching the nomination.

A large majority—64%—thinks Mr. Trump should win the nomination if he has the most delegates, even if he falls short of a majority, the poll found.

If Mr. Trump doesn’t win the nomination, most primary voters also said they would oppose any effort to crown someone who didn’t run for president this year, throwing cold water on speculation that party leaders should nominate House Speaker Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) or some other Republican who sidestepped the primary. Some 59% said the nominee should be someone who ran in the primaries, while 32% said it would be acceptable to have a nominee who didn’t...
More at that top link.

The party bosses are clueless if they think a "dark horse" nominee at a "brokered" convention is gonna fly.

RELATED: At NY1 News, "NY1/Baruch College Poll: Trump Leads Rivals by 43 Percentage Points."

Sounds a little too big of a margin, but hey, if Trump can clear 50 percent, it'll be winner-take-all for the delegates.