Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Rain and Snow for Thanksgiving

Here's the forecast, "Megan Parry's Thanksgiving Eve Forecast."

And at the Los Angeles Times, "Is the Thanksgiving week storm approaching Southern California really a ‘bomb cyclone’?"

And, "Rain and snow likely to break California’s most enduring Thanksgiving tradition: perfect weather":

SAN FRANCISCO —  Trolling the East Coast and Midwest with tales of Thanksgiving dinner while wearing shorts under sunny skies is a California tradition.
But this year is going to be different.

Forecasters are warning of a stormy Thanksgiving holiday week marked by rain across the state and snow levels so low in elevation they could close major freeways like Interstates 5, 15 and 80. The storm is expected to bring such cold temperatures that snow may accumulate even on the floor of high-desert cities such as Lancaster, Hesperia and Barstow. Up to 2 feet of snow could hit Big Bear and Wrightwood and up to 4 feet around Lake Tahoe and Mammoth.

The forecast has holiday travelers checking their plans and hosts fretting about whether turkey al fresco for 20 could end in disaster. Just two years ago, Los Angeles sat down to a Thanksgiving feast just after the high temperature hit a crispy 92 degrees — an all-time record. This year, San Diego could be facing one of its coldest Thanksgivings since records began being kept in 1874, with a forecast high of just 60 degrees.

“Everybody can definitely break out their Uggs and Lands’ End parkas,” climatologist Bill Patzert said. L.A.'s high temperature on turkey day could remain in the 50s; San Francisco, possibly in the 40s.

And with rain probably persisting in Southern California into Thanksgiving evening, with a slight chance of thunderstorms, the holiday week might lead to the discovery of new roof leaks.

“Put your water buckets next to your turkey,” Patzert said.

But as you imagine a rain-slicked ride to your holiday dinner or a soggy drumstick, there is something positive to say about the wet Thanksgiving forecast. “This could put an end to the fire season. This is large enough, if it delivers,” Patzert said.

Much of California has been abnormally dry so far this autumn, leaving vegetation tinder dry and threatening to keep fire danger high until rains arrived. Some of California’s most recent destructive fires have hit during November and December while rainfall has been absent, such as the Camp fire that ignited on Nov. 8, 2018, destroying much of the town of Paradise and killing 86 people, and the Thomas fire in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, which began on Dec. 4, 2017, burning more than 1,000 structures and killing two.

Fire danger continued on Monday, with a fast-moving brush fire threatening numerous homes in Santa Barbara. The Cave fire was being pushed down from Los Padres National Forest toward communities by powerful winds. Highway 154 was closed, and officials were dealing with spot fires breaking out dangerously close to homes. Firefighters are hoping they can hold off the blaze until the rains arrive.

Until this storm, the fall of 2019 has been among the top five driest starts to the water year across Northern California, which began Oct. 1, said Nina Oakley, regional climatologist for the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno.

Sacramento has reported no measurable precipitation between Oct. 1 and Sunday — a parched situation that has occurred in only four other years since records began being kept in 1877, Oakley said. San Francisco has seen only 0.03 inches in the same time period...