Monday, May 9, 2022

Roe v. Wade Abortion Leak May Upend Congressional Midterms in Orange County

There's a lot of competitive seats around here. 

I doubt the shift of women voters will that substantial in South Orange County (think Dana Point, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, and Mission Viejo, etc.), but up North --- in very ethnically diverse areas like Anaheim and Santa Ana --- I can see a huge mobilization of women shifting their preferences to pro-choice Democrats. 

In 2020, Buena Park Republican Congresswoman Michelle Lee won the 48th Congressional district at 51 percent of the vote. That's razor thin. Seats like this may flip back to the Democrats in November, and it may be thanks to women voters riled up over Roe v. Wade

At the Los Angeles Times,"Galvanized by abortion fight, Orange County women could upend congressional races":

The Supreme Court’s expected decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade could galvanize Democrats and turn some reliable Republican voters — especially women — blue, according to polls and interviews. It’s a small bit of hope for Democrats, who are widely expected to lose control of Congress in this year’s election.

Polling shows that women are more likely than men to consider a candidate’s position on abortion when deciding how to vote. Women who are college graduates are also more supportive of abortion rights.

These college-educated women could be pivotal in congressional races in Orange County, where they make up more than 40% of voters — as well as in contests in similar swaths of the nation, such as the suburbs of Atlanta and Phoenix, said Mike Madrid, a GOP consultant who favors abortion rights.

The landmark 1973 court ruling asserted a constitutional right for a woman to have an abortion. If the decision is reversed as detailed in a draft opinion leaked last week, abortion would be inaccessible in roughly half the 50 U.S. states.

Overturning Roe could be “an earthquake” that upends the political leanings of suburban women, said Madrid, who has studied that voter bloc for years.

“This is a really discerning, sophisticated, informed voter that knows exactly what they are voting for. They’re voting really strategically,” he said. “They are voting against extremes. They are not voting ideologically.”

Danielle Sams, 37, typically votes Republican, including for President Trump in 2020. After hearing of the likely end of Roe vs. Wade, the registered nurse said candidates’ views on abortion could influence her votes.

“I am a ‘my body, my choice’ person because I work in healthcare. I believe in being able to choose,” Sams said as her 2-year-old played on a scooter near the Seal Beach Pier.

Sams, who is registered as a nonpartisan voter, lives in Seal Beach, which is in one of four primarily Orange County congressional districts that are expected to be among the most competitive in this year’s midterm election.

While these races are unlikely to determine which party controls Congress, they will help decide the margin, and therefore the degree of power the GOP wields...

Still more.