California GOP Senate Primary Down to Final Stretch

The wide discrepancies in the CA Senate poll findings are problematic. Chuck DeVore released a poll Monday which has him at 19 percent and within the margin of error compared to Fiorina's support at 28 percent. That sounds more reasonable to me, although Fiorina's got an undeniable advantage in getting the message out in paid television media. Things will tighten up in the last week of campaigning, and my sense is that grassroots turnout's going to help DeVore much more than either Fiorina or Tom Cambell, the third candidate in the race (see video at bottom). In any case, folks might also take a look at this commentary as well: "Why Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina Cannot Beat Barbara Boxer (Why Chuck DeVore Can)."

GOP Senate Candidates Debate on John and Ken Show (May 25, 2010) – UPDATED!!

Attended the debate with Tom Campbell, Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore. John and Ken's announcement is here. And KFI AM 640's live media player is here.

Posting just a couple of snapshots for now. I've gotta run a quick errand and I'll update and revise into a full report later (lots of MSM outlets on hand, so I'm interested to see how they spin this):

UPDATE: Okay, back now. The top photo above shows Chuck DeVore and Tom Campbell waiting for the debate to begin. At the second Campbell chats with Carly Fiorina during one of the commercial breaks.

There's an AP report up at SF Chronicle, "GOP candidates for Senate debate for last time."

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I learned my lesson from John & Ken's Sheriff Arpaio show last month (small venue). I got over to the Ayers Hotel in Costa Mesa at about 12:30pm. Carly supporters had reserved the first half-dozen rows, but the cool John and Ken set-up guys told me to sit anywhere. Maeve Reston from the Los Angeles Times was seated near the front. I introduced myself. She was holding a seat for Robin Abcarian:

Ms. Reston has a surprising piece at today's LAT, by the way: "Conservatives Ramp Up Attacks on Campbell Over His Moderate Social Views."

I spoke with Ms. Abcarian when she arrived. I'm hoping it was off the record, since I didn't have too much supportive to say for Carly Fiorina (although I mentioned I'd support Fiorina if she wins the primary).

Here's Campbell just minutes before the debate began. All that you've heard about him --- amicable, contemplative, scholarly --- is true. Sitting in front, I quietly nodded hello and he nodded back:

John Kobylt opened the debate with a question on immigration for Carly Fiorina, seen here responding. She's got a standard line, "The federal government must do its job and secure the border." And there's not too much difference among the candidates on immigration and not too many sparks flew at this point.

DeVore's got rock-solid credentials on illegal immigration. He hammered Barbara Boxer and the Obama administration, charging the Democrats with the politics of amnesty. DeVore told the audience that in 2006 he "led the walkout" in the California Legislature against then-President Vicente Fox of Mexico.

That's John Kobylt below moderating the panel. Before wrapping up, he gave each candidate a minute to speak on their top issues. Earlier Carly Fiorina had come under fire from both Campbell and DeVore for her role in the 2008 financial bailout (she was 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain's top economic advisor). She spoke up vigorously in defense of active government action, arguing that the U.S. had to "get credit flowing." And she shifted to sloganeering when she suggested that "what we need in Washington is someone who understands how the economy works." She reiterated this point (with minor variations) for the remainder of her talk. And she concluded by rebutting DeVore's attack on her support in 2000 for California's Proposition 26, arguing that the measure would have made vital investments in state education modernization. [And see Robin Abcarian and Maeve Reston's surprisingly fair write-up below] Interestingly, Carly Fiorina reminds me of Hillary Clinton in 2008 --- like Clinton previously, Fiorina clearly adopts the (somewhat annoying and ultimately ruinous) stance of the putative frontrunner. Fiorina was cordial to those in the front rows, as well as John and Ken and the KFI crew, but again she's got that air of inevitability that's dangerous to have in electoral politics. That said, I came away impressed, despite Fiorina's long history as a gender-mongering RINO.

The room held at least 150 people not counting those standing at back. At the picture below, that's Diane DeVore leaning foward at right, in purple, talking to her daughters, "The DeVorettes." Also, right behind the DeVores is my good friend Frances Akhavi of Constitution and Country, a conservative interest group in Orange County.

Folks left pretty quickly, although the DeVores, O.C. locals, posed for pics with the platoon of conservative activists hoisting "Honk for Chuck" signs along Bristol Street :

See also Robin Abcarian and Maeve Reston, at LAT, "Republican candidates spar in U.S. Senate debate":

With two weeks to go until the June 8 primary, and more than one-third of Republican voters still undecided, the candidates were more willing to pull the gloves off than they were earlier this month when they met at the Museum of Tolerance for a more restrained debate.

This time, Campbell attacked Fiorina for her sparse voting record and questioned her party loyalty. DeVore pounded Fiorina for supporting a proposition that would have made it easier to pass school bonds. Fiorina chided Campbell for backing tax increases to help balance the state’s budget.

Campbell and DeVore also ganged up on Fiorina, whose spotty voting record has left her open to accusations of less-than-stellar citizenship. DeVore got in a two-fer when he noted that in 2000, while Fiorina was chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, she co-authored an op-ed with Silicon Valley venture capitalist John Doerr calling for voters to pass Proposition 26, which would have changed one of the tenets of Proposition 13 by lowering the constitutional requirement to pass school bonds from a two-thirds vote to a simple majority of the electorate. “And you didn’t even bother voting in the election in which it was defeated narrowly!” he exclaimed.

Be sure to RTWT.

'Bounce Boxer' Bumper Sticker!

I picked up a new batch of "Bounce Boxer" bumper stickers at the Irvine Tea Party. And it turns out that Opus 6 recently displayed a sample on her soccer mom transportation unit:

I'm going to be updating my bulletin board today and tomorrow, and will update with photos.

Conservatives to Endorse Chuck DeVore at Tea Party Express

At LAT, "Conservative activists plan to endorse Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in Senate race":

A national coalition of conservative activists plans to endorse Republican Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the U.S. Senate race, spurning two more popular candidates in favor of the underdog bidding to take on Democrat Barbara Boxer.

The Tea Party Express, whose backing helped propel Scott Brown in his successful effort to claim the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts, will announce the endorsement Saturday at a Nevada rally headlined by conservative stalwarts such as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Samuel J. Wurzelbacher, who is better known as Joe the Plumber.

"Of the three candidates running, Chuck DeVore embodies the conservative ideals we are fighting for: basic fiscal sanity and limited government," said Levi Russell, spokesman for the Tea Party Express. "He is the obvious choice."

Although this is the group's first endorsement in the 2010 primary election cycle, Russell concedes it is unlikely to have as great an effect as the Brown nod, which brought about $400,000 and intense volunteer support to the Massachusetts race.

That contest was a special election targeting a seat that held great symbolism. The California race will be competing for money and volunteers with many contests across the nation.

"We are trying to put the spotlight on him," Russell said. On Thursday the group will announce how much money it plans to give DeVore, whose fundraising has lagged.

The California race is already attracting national attention as Republicans ponder the possibility of knocking off three-term incumbent Boxer. Polls have shown former Rep. Tom Campbell and former Hewlett-Packard chief Carly Fiorina as the front-runners in the GOP primary, with DeVore trailing far behind.

The most conservative and least well-known of the three candidates, DeVore has long counted on such grass-roots support to help carve an improbable path to victory, and has visited "tea party" groups across the state in addition to traditional GOP organizations.

The endorsement "sends a signal to primary voters that I'm not the business-as-usual, establishment candidate," said the Orange County assemblyman, adding that he would also be able to use the group's extensive e-mail list ....

The Tea Party Express endorsement is also likely to come with the most hoopla. It will be announced at the "Showdown in Searchlight," a rally in the Nevada hometown of embattled Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Thousands are expected to descend on the tiny historic mining town, kicking off a 42-city, 20-day "Just Vote Them Out!" bus tour that will end in Washington on April 15.

DeVore said he plans to ask Palin for Palin's endorsement on Saturday.

DeVore needs money to get his message out. Visit the campaign homepage to make a contribution.

RELATED: At Fox News, "Tea Partiers to Congressional Democrats: You'll Pay in November."

Chuck DeVore Tea Party Rally!

Orange County Tea Party Patriots (in coordination with OCLA) sponsored a "unique indoor tea party rally" today at the Hills Hotel, in Laguna Hills, California. Below is a crowd shot at about 10:30am. The event is still filling up. Notice on the right the "Hunt for Sheriff" sign. That's Bill Hunt, who spoke passionately about the issues (more on him below):

The event was specifically billed as as "We the People" demonstration designed to send a message to "political machine" leaders in both Washington and Sacramento. The webpage for "Unplug the Machine" is here, and at the badge:

These women are with the Sisterhood of the Mommy Patriots):

That's conservative comedian Evan Sayet, just after he spoke:

Dr. Obama Joker was in the house:

This is historical impersonator Peter Small. He did a rousing rendition of Thomas Jefferson, generating tremendous applause with his recitation of the Declaration of Independence:

Here's candidate Bill Hunt, who's running for county sheriff. Not only is he passionate, he's as angry as the angriest tea-partier:

But he's a real friendly guy in person:

This is Dawn Wildman, one of early leaders of the California tea party movement. She spoke about where the tea parties stand today, especially in the context of a major election year in the state:

I didn't catch all of Wildman's speech. My camera was running out of batteries and I ran down to the mini-mart on the corner to get more. On the way back, some fellow patriots were directing drivers and passers-by to the event:

Back inside, here's the tea party sign of a friend who works nearby my college in Long Beach:

One cool thing about the indoor tea parties is that you can really decorate the place:

Chuck DeVore's speech was the main event:

These are your typical Orange County tea party patriots and elderly activists. Whoo!! OMG JOHN BIRCH FASCIST SCARY!!

Here's Chuck after being presented with a "Legislator of the Year" award:

Steve Poizner, candidate for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, also spoke. But the crowd was thinning by that time. (Poizner, who's supposed to be weathly, should be matching Meg Whitman dollar for dollar in the state's advertising wars, but so far it's been all Whitman all the time.)

As grassroots populists, the tea partiers have always prided themselves on their fierce independence from the two major parties. The movement has been anti-government as much as it's been anti-Obama for most of the last year, and RINOs like Dede Scozzafava have no future as GOP candidates as long as tea party activists comprise the bulk of the local primary electorates around the country.

But with today's Chuck DeVore tea party we've seen a formal merger between the tea party base and the most conservative candidates in the California GOP. I've noticed this coming for some time, actually, since at least January, when I reported on Mark Meckler's speech to the Orange County GOP Central Committee. (Local party officials were out-pledging themselves to adopt the most conservative/libertarian principles, and they said they'd bolt from the national party should it sell out the interests of local organizations.)

And note something else: Dawn Wildman spoke of how California's tea party movement is by far the largest in the nation (even bigger than Texas'), and after last May's repudiation of the Schwarzenegger tax-hike initiatives, the California tea parties sent a message nationwide that big-budget tax increases will face massive rejection at the ballot box. Thus the message of tea partiers out west will have dramatic ramifications for what happens elsewhere around the country this year. And recall that when the tea parties gave a dramatic lift to Scott Brown in Massachusetts, the results there showed that activists were pragmatic and focused on good government (and not just ideological purity). All of this is coming together in a way that's almost certain to realign the political system from top to bottom in November.

As we saw last week in Nashville, there's still a lot of debate over the direction of the tea parties and whether the movement will continue to thrive in the absence of a centralized leadership. But from my own activism and analysis of events, it's clear to me that the conservative right has coalesced, pragmatically, around the need to take back power this year; and it may well be that the tea parties have indeed "taken over" the Republican Party. No doubt isolated elections around the country, featuring candidates with diverse constituencies and less competitive electoral circumstances, will take place without a super-mobilized tea party base. But where the GOP is considered competitive in Democratic-controlled districts, folks can expect much more of what we've seen in places like NY-23 and Massachusetts. Indeed, at this point the real focus should be on the candidates themselves, not the tea parties. If the event today was any indication, those in the grassroots will by and large fold their interests with the Republican Party.

We've been witnessing a great awakening of political activism this last year. It's been amazing to see everyday citizens -- many who're participating for the first times in their lives -- get so passionately involved in backing candidates and issues in an effort to restore limited government in the United States. What's been equally amazing is how dramatically the tea parties have destroyed whatever assumptions pundits have had about the direction of national politics in the Obama era. When the president confessed he'd be satisfied to be a "great one-term president," it was totally clear to me that the tea party patriots have gotten a piece of the man, somewhere deep down in the recesses of his being. All of this has been epic, a genuinely revolutionary phenomenon.

CA GOP Matchups With Boxer

From today's poll at the Public Policy Institute of California (via Memeorandum):

In a theoretical Senate matchup, Boxer falls short of a majority against each of the potential challengers. She and Campbell are in a close contest (45% to 41%). While 79 percent of Democratic likely voters favor Boxer, 84 percent of Republican likely voters favor Campbell. Independents are more divided but favor Boxer (42% to 37%). Gender differences among likely voters are stark: Boxer has a 14-point lead among female likely voters (50% to 36%), and Campbell has a 6-point lead among men (46% to 40%). Boxer has an 8-point lead over Fiorina (48% to 40%) and DeVore (47% to 39%).

There's not much difference between Fiorina and DeVore vis-a-vis Boxer, but considering the former's big money and name recognition, the results are a bit surprising to me (she should be doing better).

DeVore has improved a tiny bit in this poll (compared to here), although he's got a lot of ground to make up. (Name recognition is driving Campbell's support at this point.)

My sense is that he's got to get aggressive with some media and advertising, and that takes money. He's got a money-bomb gearing up for February 1st, so check that out if you're able to help. Tom Campbell will not protect innocent lives if elected, and as noted, Fiorina's pro-life posture is sketchy. See, "Life, Values, and California's GOP Senate Primary."

Nearly Three-in-Ten California Voters Identify With Tea Party Movement

From yesterday's Field Poll, "NEARLY THREE IN TEN CALIFORNIA VOTERS IDENTIFY STRONGLY OR SOME-WHAT WITH THE TEA PARTY MOVEMENT. ONE IN THREE VOTERS ALSO NOT CONVINCED THAT OBAMA WAS BORN IN U.S.":

*****

Greater than six in ten California voters (61%) report having heard of the tea party protest movement. This includes 12% who say they identify with it a lot and 16% who have some identification with it.

Registered Republicans and strong conservatives report greater awareness of the movement and are significantly more likely to say they identify with it a lot. While majorities of Democrats, non-partisans, liberals and political moderates are aware of the movement, very few of these voters identify with it a lot or somewhat.

The poll also queried respondents on President Obama's qualifications for office, i.e., "Was Obama born in the U.S.?":

In this survey The Field Poll asked California voters their opinions on this matter. The results show that two-thirds of voters here (67%) say they believe that Obama was born in the U.S. However, 11% think that he was not and another 22% say they aren’t sure.

There is a wide variance in voter beliefs about Obama’s birthplace by party and political ideology. In addition, voter opinions are also correlated with whether or not a voter identifies with the tea party movement.

Eighty-five percent of Democrats, but just 42% of Republicans, maintain that Obama was born in the U.S. There is also a wide divergence of opinion between liberals, 96% of whom believe Obama was born in America, and conservatives, of whom fewer than half feel this way (45%).

Just 29% of the voters who say they identify a lot with the tea party movement believe that Obama is a U.S.-born citizen.

Nearly Three-in-Ten California Voters Identify With Tea Party Movement

From today's Field Poll, "NEARLY THREE IN TEN CALIFORNIA VOTERS IDENTIFY STRONGLY OR SOME-WHAT WITH THE TEA PARTY MOVEMENT. ONE IN THREE VOTERS ALSO NOT CONVINCED THAT OBAMA WAS BORN IN U.S.":

*****

Greater than six in ten California voters (61%) report having heard of the tea party protest movement. This includes 12% who say they identify with it a lot and 16% who have some identification with it.

Registered Republicans and strong conservatives report greater awareness of the movement and are significantly more likely to say they identify with it a lot. While majorities of Democrats, non-partisans, liberals and political moderates are aware of the movement, very few of these voters identify with it a lot or somewhat.

The poll also queried respondents on President Obama's qualifications for office, i.e., "Was Obama born in the U.S.?":

In this survey The Field Poll asked California voters their opinions on this matter. The results show that two-thirds of voters here (67%) say they believe that Obama was born in the U.S. However, 11% think that he was not and another 22% say they aren’t sure.

There is a wide variance in voter beliefs about Obama’s birthplace by party and political ideology. In addition, voter opinions are also correlated with whether or not a voter identifies with the tea party movement.

Eighty-five percent of Democrats, but just 42% of Republicans, maintain that Obama was born in the U.S. There is also a wide divergence of opinion between liberals, 96% of whom believe Obama was born in America, and conservatives, of whom fewer than half feel this way (45%).

Just 29% of the voters who say they identify a lot with the tea party movement believe that Obama is a U.S.-born citizen.

'Bear Flag Revolt' May Help Chuck DeVore in California

Notice the irony at the screencap. My latest article, the lead story at the moment, is up at Pajamas Media, "Brown Victory Alters the Playing Field in California GOP Senate Primary." Funny how a Carly Fiorina campaign advertisment is plastered in the middle of an essay explaining how she's headed to the defeat at the hands of tea party activists:

California is expected to again face a multi-billion dollar budget deficit, and unemployment remains at 12.4 percent, the fifth-highest rate in the nation. And from San Diego to San Francisco, the Golden State’s grassroots tea party movement has been protesting vociferously against the Democratic-socialist takeover in Washington. There’s going to be zero tolerance for RINOs among conservative activists. Carly Fiorina’s already been hammered as “the next Dede Scozzafava,” and DeVore’s long been identified as the only “mainstream conservative” in the race. As Dan Riehl wrote last November:

DeVore is sharp. He combines a solid conservative record and set of ideas with the polish from having worked in D.C. before going on to the Aerospace industry. His returning to electoral politics and being retired military has given DeVore the type of polish and discipline that wins political campaigns.

And I can attest, from a year’s worth of activism in the local tea party movement, that DeVore is going to have a lock on the conservative base of the GOP’s primary electorate. Even local party officials are talking about a “second American Revolution.” Somehow I doubt that Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina will generate much enthusiasm among the state’s movement activists. Based on this analysis, I expect that Chuck DeVore will emerge as the Marco Rubio of the GOP Senate primary in California (with a similar set of political assets).

RTWT at the link.

Join the revolt: Chuck DeVore's campaign page is here.