Showing posts with label Entitlements. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Entitlements. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Budget Discord Simmers on the Left

Democrats aren't serious about reducing the national debt, and they never will be.

At the Wall Street Journal, "Some Liberal Groups, Lawmakers Worry About Cuts to Social Security, Other Entitlements":
Cracks are showing in the Democratic coalition as the next round of budget talks gets under way, hurting the chances for progress toward a broad deal that changes the tax code and significantly narrows future deficits.

While Republicans are still smarting over nasty infighting they engaged in during the debt-ceiling fight and 16-day government shutdown, Democrats have stayed united. This helped them beat back Republican demands to undo or scale back President Barack Obama's 2010 health law as a condition for ending the showdown.

But with eyes now turning toward a newly formed budget committee, some liberal lawmakers and groups are worried that Democrats will negotiate cuts to Social Security benefits and other entitlement programs. The president's budget blueprint, which was released in April, proposed slowing the growth of Social Security spending by using a new measure of inflation—an idea that drew a rebuke from some lawmakers and liberal groups.

"The president is about to run into a major base problem if he tries to do this," said Rep. Keith Ellison (D., Minn.), co-chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, referring to using the new formula, the chained consumer-price index, to determine benefits. "My advice to him is: Don't do it."
Well, when has O ever worried about the base?

And frankly, President Obumbler's not serious about entitlement reform. We'll be over $20 trillion in debt when he leaves office, and perhaps much more.

Monday, June 3, 2013

How Will U.S. Fund Entitlements?

At IBD, "Social Security Report Alarming; But D.C. Calm":
Disability beneficiaries face steep cuts in just three years under current law and today's new retirees are expected to outlive the Social Security Trust Fund by two years.

Yet the annual report from the Social Security and Medicare Trustees was taken in stride in D.C., as a full-fledged effort at entitlement reform remains far from the agenda.
When asked about how the administration would avoid scheduled disability benefit cuts of 20%, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew alluded to "the 1990s and policy choices made in time" to avert a similar set of cuts.

That policy choice involved one Social Security trust fund, the main Old Age and Survivors Insurance fund, lending to another in 1994. Almost 20 years later, even as Social Security is expected to run an annual cash deficit of $75 billion, the current administration is signaling that it's prepared to kick the can again. That is, unless it gets a big-enough tax hike to minimize benefit cuts.

Meanwhile, the White House hailed the "good news for seniors and taxpayers" that Medicare's hospital insurance program will be solvent through 2026.
Continue reading.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Capitalism and Inequality

I thought this was going to be another mindless partisan hatchet job on free market economics, but I was wrong. It's a thoughtful piece on the problems of inequality, surprisingly balanced. I think I winced only once, which is amazing for an essay at Foreign Affairs.

See Jerry Muller's lead article from the March/April issue, "Capitalism and Inequality: What the Right and the Left Get Wrong." This part is especially good:

Capitalism and Inequality
THE FAMILY AND HUMAN CAPITAL

In today's globalized, financialized, postindustrial environment, human capital is more important than ever in determining life chances. This makes families more important, too, because as each generation of social science researchers discovers anew (and much to their chagrin), the resources transmitted by the family tend to be highly determinative of success in school and in the workplace. As the economist Friedrich Hayek pointed out half a century ago in The Constitution of Liberty, the main impediment to true equality of opportunity is that there is no substitute for intelligent parents or for an emotionally and culturally nurturing family. In the words of a recent study by the economists Pedro Carneiro and James Heckman, "Differences in levels of cognitive and noncognitive skills by family income and family background emerge early and persist. If anything, schooling widens these early differences."

Hereditary endowments come in a variety of forms: genetics, prenatal and postnatal nurture, and the cultural orientations conveyed within the family. Money matters, too, of course, but is often less significant than these largely nonmonetary factors. (The prevalence of books in a household is a better predictor of higher test scores than family income.) Over time, to the extent that societies are organized along meritocratic lines, family endowments and market rewards will tend to converge.

Educated parents tend to invest more time and energy in child care, even when both parents are engaged in the work force. And families strong in human capital are more likely to make fruitful use of the improved means of cultivation that contemporary capitalism offers (such as the potential for online enrichment) while resisting their potential snares (such as unrestricted viewing of television and playing of computer games).

This affects the ability of children to make use of formal education, which is increasingly, at least potentially, available to all regardless of economic or ethnic status. At the turn of the twentieth century, only 6.4 percent of American teenagers graduated from high school, and only one in 400 went on to college. There was thus a huge portion of the population with the capacity, but not the opportunity, for greater educational achievement. Today, the U.S. high school graduation rate is about 75 percent (down from a peak of about 80 percent in 1960), and roughly 40 percent of young adults are enrolled in college.

The Economist recently repeated a shibboleth: "In a society with broad equality of opportunity, the parents' position on the income ladder should have little impact on that of their children." The fact is, however, that the greater equality of institutional opportunity there is, the more families' human capital endowments matter. As the political scientist Edward Banfield noted a generation ago in The Unheavenly City Revisited, "All education favors the middle- and upper-class child, because to be middle- or upper-class is to have qualities that make one particularly educable." Improvements in the quality of schools may improve overall educational outcomes, but they tend to increase, rather than diminish, the gap in achievement between children from families with different levels of human capital. Recent investigations that purport to demonstrate less intergenerational mobility in the United States today than in the past (or than in some European nations) fail to note that this may in fact be a perverse product of generations of increasing equality of opportunity. And in this respect, it is possible that the United States may simply be on the leading edge of trends found in other advanced capitalist societies as well.
And this section's politically incorrect:
WHY EDUCATION IS NOT A PANACEA

A growing recognition of the increasing economic inequality and social stratification in postindustrial societies has naturally led to discussions of what can be done about it, and in the American context, the answer from almost all quarters is simple: education.

One strand of this logic focuses on college. There is a growing gap in life chances between those who complete college and those who don't, the argument runs, and so as many people as possible should go to college. Unfortunately, even though a higher percentage of Americans are attending college, they are not necessarily learning more. An increasing number are unqualified for college-level work, many leave without completing their degrees, and others receive degrees reflecting standards much lower than what a college degree has usually been understood to mean.

The most significant divergence in educational achievement occurs before the level of college, meanwhile, in rates of completion of high school, and major differences in performance (by class and ethnicity) appear still earlier, in elementary school. So a second strand of the education argument focuses on primary and secondary schooling. The remedies suggested here include providing schools with more money, offering parents more choice, testing students more often, and improving teacher performance. Even if some or all of these measures might be desirable for other reasons, none has been shown to significantly diminish the gaps between students and between social groups -- because formal schooling itself plays a relatively minor role in creating or perpetuating achievement gaps.

The gaps turn out to have their origins in the different levels of human capital children possess when they enter school -- which has led to a third strand of the education argument, focusing on earlier and more intensive childhood intervention. Suggestions here often amount to taking children out of their family environments and putting them into institutional settings for as much time as possible (Head Start, Early Head Start) or even trying to resocialize whole neighborhoods (as in the Harlem Children's Zone project). There are examples of isolated successes with such programs, but it is far from clear that these are reproducible on a larger scale. Many programs show short-term gains in cognitive ability, but most of these gains tend to fade out over time, and those that remain tend to be marginal. It is more plausible that such programs improve the noncognitive skills and character traits conducive to economic success -- but at a significant cost and investment, employing resources extracted from the more successful parts of the population (thus lowering the resources available to them) or diverted from other potential uses.

For all these reasons, inequality in advanced capitalist societies seems to be both growing and ineluctable, at least for the time being. Indeed, one of the most robust findings of contemporary social scientific inquiry is that as the gap between high-income and low-income families has increased, the educational and employment achievement gaps between the children of these families has increased even more.
And from the conclusion:
For capitalism to continue to be made legitimate and palatable to populations at large, therefore -- including those on the lower and middle rungs of the socioeconomic ladder, as well as those near the top, losers as well as winners -- government safety nets that help diminish insecurity, alleviate the sting of failure in the marketplace, and help maintain equality of opportunity will have to be maintained and revitalized. Such programs already exist in most of the advanced capitalist world, including the United States, and the right needs to accept that they serve an indispensable purpose and must be preserved rather than gutted -- that major government social welfare spending is a proper response to some inherently problematic features of capitalism, not a "beast" that should be "starved."

In the United States, for example, measures such as Social Security, unemployment insurance, food stamps, the Earned Income Tax Credit, Medicare, Medicaid, and the additional coverage provided by the Affordable Care Act offer aid and comfort above all to those less successful in and more buffeted by today's economy. It is unrealistic to imagine that the popular demand for such programs will diminish. It is uncaring to cut back the scope of such programs when inequality and insecurity have risen. And if nothing else, the enlightened self-interest of those who profit most from living in a society of capitalist dynamism should lead them to recognize that it is imprudent to resist parting with some of their market gains in order to achieve continued social and economic stability. Government entitlement programs need structural reform, but the right should accept that a reasonably generous welfare state is here to stay, and for eminently sensible reasons.

The left, in turn, needs to come to grips with the fact that aggressive attempts to eliminate inequality may be both too expensive and futile. The very success of past attempts to increase equality of opportunity -- such as by expanding access to education and outlawing various forms of discrimination -- means that in advanced capitalist societies today, large, discrete pools of untapped human potential are increasingly rare. Additional measures to promote equality are therefore likely to produce fewer gains than their predecessors, at greater cost. And insofar as such measures involve diverting resources from those with more human capital to those with less, or bypassing criteria of achievement and merit, they may impede the economic dynamism and growth on which the existing welfare state depends.
Folks can quibble with Muller's concluding thoughts. I don't think the right doubts the "indispensable purpose" of the social welfare state. It's the left's never-ending program of expanding it that's the problem (which includes the promulgation of really terrible policies that in fact hurt social welfare rather than improve it). And of course the left will never "come to grips" with the futility of ending inequality. And leftists couldn't care less about harming "economic dynamism and growth."

In any case, read the whole thing. A thought-provoking essay.

Friday, February 1, 2013

Federal Spending Set to Climb Nearly 2 Percent This Year

At IBD, "Austerity? Federal Spending Set to Climb 2% This Year":

In the wake of Wednesday's news that the economy contracted slightly in the last three months of 2012, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid laid the blame on budget cuts.

"The economy was rejecting the austerity and brinksmanship," he said.

That theme — that spending cuts are putting economic growth at risk — has been gaining traction these days, particularly among those on the left.

Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., said the GDP drop showed that pushing "big austerity measures now will hurt the recovery."

Former Obama economic adviser Jared Bernstein asserted U.S. policy has been based on "austerity at (a) time when we need a fiscal push."

And the liberal Center for American Progress complained that "fiscal austerity threatens the U.S. economy."

On the surface, it might look that way.

In its GDP report, for example, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said government spending dropped 6.6% in Q4. And unless Congress acts, more than $1 trillion in automatic spending cuts will start to kick in as part of the so-called sequester.

But dig a little deeper, and there's little to back up all this austerity talk.

Spending: Up

According to monthly spending data from the Treasury Dept., total federal spending — which includes transfer payments and other federal outlays not counted by the BEA — increased by $98 billion in Q4 compared with Q3. And spending was up $31 billion when compared with Q4 2011.

For the entire year, spending in 2012 was virtually unchanged from 2011, and was up $86 billion over 2010, a year when the government was still spending stimulus money in earnest.

Plus, the "fiscal cliff" deal worked out between President Obama and the Republicans actually added almost $50 billion to planned spending in 2013, and a total of $332 billion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Almost half of the 2013 increase will go to pay extended unemployment benefits, which Democrats have long argued are highly stimulative.

Reid himself has said that unemployment benefits "help our economy because recipients spend the cash they receive on the things they need right away."

In addition, even if the "sequester" should go through, federal spending will continue to climb.

No Real 'Cuts'

In fact, if nothing else changes, spending in 2013 will be $3.6 trillion, an increase of nearly 2% over 2012, according to data from the CBO. That's because the sequester's "cuts" are actually just reductions in planned spending hikes.
More at that top link.

And see Holly Robichaud, at the Boston Herald, "Need to face reality":
This week Senator Mary Landrieu claimed that our nation doesn't have spending problem. This U.S. Senator is denying that we face $16 trillion in debt. That equals $146,000 per taxpayer. I don't have an extra $146,000 to give to the federal government. Do you? This announcement of Landrieu comes on the heals of the President telling Speaker Boehner there is no debt problem.

I know that liberals want to tax the rich. Even if we tax the rich 100%, that won't make a dent in our debt. This money is going to be paid by the middle class and future generations unless we rein in spending.

It is time for some honesty from the Democrats!
Well, don't hold your breath. The left lives on lies. Pure lies. All the time. From Obama down to the most disgusting trolls of the progressive fever swamps.

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Prop. 13 Tax Restraints Targeted for Attack by California Legislators

I blogged on this in November, after it became clear that the Democrats would have a super-majority in the legislature.

See IBD, "Proposition 13 Property Tax Curbs Face Attack In California":
The tax revolt that swept California and the nation starting in the 1970s may have run out of steam, but its landmark law, Proposition 13, is still largely intact.

That could change in the next two years as Democratic state lawmakers with a new two-thirds majority in both houses take aim at Proposition 13 tax restraints in their hunt for money.

Taxpayer advocates are girding for battle. "This year, for us, will be devoted entirely to defending Proposition 13," said Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayer Association.

Backers of Proposition 13 warn that changes could pinch family finances and hurt businesses, large and small, in a state with joblessness still near 10% and costs higher than many locales.

Passed in 1978 with nearly 65% of the state voting yes, Proposition 13 is a shield and political symbol. It has kept California property taxes moderate and predictable, capping them at 1% of a property's value when it last sold, plus a 2% annual inflation factor.

Critics long blamed the law for state fiscal woes. But mainstream politicians knew it was popular and didn't want to touch it.
Isn't this amazing.

Just yesterday the Los Angeles Times reported on Governor Brown's announcement that the California state budget is in the black. You'd think that these people would try to restrain spending rather than go hunting for ever more "revenue" sources. The maw of the leftist entitlement state is never sated.

There's more at the link.

Friday, January 4, 2013

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Firm Hired to Overhaul California's State Government Payroll in 'Over its Head' and 'May Be Unable to Reach its Goal'

It's utterly asthounding, the amount of money burned up by the endlessly voracious bureaucratic entitlement state. But California keeps throwing up example after example. One of these days it's going to be a bunch of road warriors out here. We're just counting down to the fiscal apocalypse.

At the Los Angeles Times, "Overhaul of California government payroll system at risk of collapse":
SACRAMENTO — One of the state's biggest technology endeavors, a $371-million overhaul of the government payroll system, is beset with problems and "in danger of collapsing," according to the state controller's office.

The company hired for the project is in over its head and may be unable to deliver on its promise to update a payroll system so old that even simple salary adjustments can tie it in knots, the controller's chief administrative officer said in a letter.

The state has spent at least $254 million so far on contractors, staff salaries, software and more for the system upgrade, which is five years overdue and has nearly tripled in cost since lawmakers authorized it in 2005.

"The project … is foundering and is in danger of collapsing," administrator Jim Lombard wrote to the contractor, SAP Public Services, in October. Lombard said the new system is not capable of processing "any portion of the state payroll population, let alone the full population of approximately 240,000 employees."

An SAP spokesman, Andy Kendzie, said the company is meeting its contractual obligations.

"Considering the project's complexity, and the many requirements involved in payroll processing, there have been some challenges," Kendzie said in a statement. "Despite these, SAP remains committed to the overall success of the project."

Technology quagmires have become a hallmark of California state government, with delays and cost overruns common...
Do tell.

Go finish reading at that top link.

Not to worry about yesterday's failed Mayan apocalypse prophecy. The ethnic wizards of our once-Golden State will be sure to see that puppy through!

Friday, December 7, 2012

Obama's Fiscal Cliff: It's Nothing But a Power Play

From Charles Krauthammer, at the Washington Post":
Let’s understand President Obama’s strategy in the “fiscal cliff” negotiations. It has nothing to do with economics or real fiscal reform. This is entirely about politics. It’s Phase 2 of the 2012 campaign. The election returned him to office. The fiscal cliff negotiations are designed to break the Republican opposition and grant him political supremacy, something he thinks he earned with his landslide 2.8-point victory margin on Election Day.

This is why he sent Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to the Republicans to convey not a negotiating offer but a demand for unconditional surrender. House Speaker John Boehner had made a peace offering of $800 billion in new revenue. Geithner pocketed Boehner’s $800 billion, doubled it to $1.6 trillion, offered risible cuts that in 2013 would actually be exceeded by new stimulus spending and then demanded that Congress turn over to the president all power over the debt ceiling.

Boehner was stunned. Mitch McConnell laughed out loud. In nobler days, they’d have offered Geithner a pistol and an early-morning appointment at Weehawken. Alas, Boehner gave again, coming back a week later with spending-cut suggestions — as demanded by Geithner — only to have them dismissed with a wave of the hand.

What’s going on here? Having taken Boehner’s sword, and then his shirt, Obama sent Geithner to demand Boehner’s trousers. Perhaps this is what Obama means by a balanced approach.
More at that top link.

Social Security Will Boost Debt by 18 Percent of GDP in Just Twenty Years

At IBD, "Social Security to Up Debt By 18% of GDP In 20 Years":
Since 2007, Social Security has gone from running an $81 billion annual cash surplus to an estimated $58 billion deficit.

Yet despite that $139 billion swing toward red ink, Democrats insist that Social Security hasn't added a penny to the deficit and, therefore, should be off the table in fiscal cliff negotiations.

In reality, Social Security's deteriorating finances explain 15% of the $900 billion-plus increase in the overall budget deficit over the past five years.

Even more striking, Social Security's cash deficit will balloon to $155 billion by 2022, the Congressional Budget Office projects. That rise amounts to more than one-third of the overall deficit increase over the coming decade if current tax and spending policies stay in place.

IOU Accounting

So how can liberals argue that Social Security doesn't cause deficits? The $2.7 trillion Social Security trust fund doesn't hold any resources to help the government afford benefits. Instead, it represents a Treasury promise to cover any cash shortfall until the trust fund's special bonds, really government IOUs, are all spent.

That makes the retirement program's cash shortfall a problem for Treasury, but not Social Security itself, liberals can argue.

Yet either way, the impact on the government's bottom line is the same.

On its current path, Social Security's cash shortfall would raise public debt by 18% of GDP through 2032 — just before the trust fund is exhausted — an IBD analysis based on the 2012 Social Security Trustees report finds.

In 20 years, if Social Security is left unreformed, its cash deficit will hit 1.4% of GDP. On top of that, the extra interest due on the debt incurred by redeeming all of Social Security's trust fund bonds would amount to another 1% of GDP.

Bottom line: Social Security alone would increase the deficit by 2.4% of GDP, making it too big to ignore.

Because health care is by far the biggest driver of long-term budget deficits, there's no reason to think that the non-Social Security part of the budget will have money to spare to cover such a big Social Security deficit.

There also are important reasons to reform Social Security beyond fiscal prudence. When President Clinton put Social Security at the top of his agenda in 1998, he told Congress that reform wasn't just about saving money but also providing more support to lift low lifetime earners and elderly widows out of poverty. Such efforts have been stymied by political stalemate.

How about adults at the halfway point of their careers who face the prospect of retiring after the Social Security trust fund is depleted?

An IBD analysis finds that an average earner (about $43,000 a year) with 20 years left until retirement would have to set aside more than 5% of wages each year to make up for a nearly 25% automatic benefit cut under current law. That assumes Treasury returns and a lifetime annuity.

The government should let these workers know if they need to do more saving before it's too late.
RTWT.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

When Work is Punished

From Tyler Durden, "The Tragedy of America's Welfare State."
Exactly two years ago, some of the more politically biased progressive media outlets (who are quite adept at creating and taking down their own strawmen arguments, if not quite as adept at using an abacus, let alone a calculator) took offense at our article "In Entitlement America, The Head Of A Household Of Four Making Minimum Wage Has More Disposable Income Than A Family Making $60,000 A Year." In it we merely explained what has become the painful reality in America: for increasingly more it is now more lucrative - in the form of actual disposable income - to sit, do nothing, and collect various welfare entitlements, than to work. This is graphically, and very painfully confirmed, in the below chart from Gary Alexander, Secretary of Public Welfare, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (a state best known for its broke capital Harrisburg). As quantitied, and explained by Alexander, "the single mom is better off earnings gross income of $29,000 with $57,327 in net income & benefits than to earn gross income of $69,000 with net income and benefits of $57,045."
Welfare Dependency
And Check Instapundit as well from some video, "It’s as if there’s some kind of Dependency Agenda at work here."