Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Melissa Francis: 'C'mon Donald!' Iowa Caucuses: Trump Didn't Spend Enough Money (VIDEO)

Watch the Outnumbered analysis featuring Rich Lowry and Andrea Tantaros.

Toward the end of the clip Melissa Frances jumps in with some numbers, comparing the Cruz campaign's big expenditures to the billionaire's tight-fisted failures in the Hawkeye State.

Via Fox News:



PREVIOUSLY: "Donald Trump's the Biggest Loser Coming Out of Iowa (VIDEO)."

Monday, February 1, 2016

Donald Trump's the Biggest Loser Coming Out of Iowa (VIDEO)

Yeah, well, I said as much earlier, although the campaign's just beginning now.

And frankly, he gave a classy concession speech, which I'm just now seeing, since CNN was running with somebody, I think Hillary, at the time.

As far as expectations go, he's definitely taken a beating. The sign of a winner, though, is how well they take defeat, with sportsmanship or bitterness. The Donald's gonna be fine. He needs to be on the ground campaigning in New Hampshire first thing in the morning.

In any case, at U.S. News and World Report, "In Iowa, the Emperor Has No Clothes":


The day has arrived. GOP front-runner Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed consummate winner, is now officially a loser, placing second in the Iowa caucuses behind Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

Trump lost despite polling nearly five points ahead of Cruz and the other GOP candidates. He could taste the victory. "Unless I win," Trump said Sunday, "I would consider this a big, fat, beautiful – and, by the way, a very expensive – waste of time. … If I don't win, maybe bad things will happen."

In contrast, a noticeably subdued Trump whitewashed his loss when he took the stage after the caucus, simply encouraging supporters to look forward to the future. "New Hampshire – we love New Hampshire. We love South Carolina." Rather than castigating the people of Iowa, as many expected (and as he's done before), Trump spun the loss as beating expectations: "I absolutely love the people of Iowa. … I was told by everybody, 'Do not go to Iowa. You cannot finish even in the top 10.' "

But overall, Trump's entire campaign has been predicated on his being a winner. And as Talking Point Memo's Josh Marshall summarized, "If you're a 'winner', if you're the alpha, you have to win."
Keep reading.

Anti-Establishment Caucuses, With Unexpected Winners

Here's Susan Page, at USA Today, "Big night for the anti-establishment candidates":
It was a big night in Iowa Monday for anti-establishment candidates — just not always the one who expected it.

A Republican race that seemed to be heading toward a romp to the nomination by billionaire businessman Donald Trump suddenly has turned into a fierce and more extended battle: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the opening contest of the 2016 campaign, and Trump only narrowly managed to finish ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

In the Democratic race, a hairs-breadth divided former secretary of State Hillary Clinton and challenger Bernie Sanders, a stronger showing by the Vermont senator than seemed possible just a few weeks ago. While Clinton did better than her humiliating third-place showing here in 2008, it means that she once again heads to the New Hampshire primary with something to prove.

In speeches to supporters as the results came in, Clinton declared that she was "breathing a big sigh of relief" but acknowledged that she now faced "really getting into the debate" with Sanders about the country's best course forward. Sanders said to cheers that he had taken on "the most powerful political organization in America" and fought them to "a virtual tie." Trump, speaking with unusual brevity, insisted that he "loved" Iowa and might be back one day to buy a farm.

And Cruz, like Trump a candidate viewed with suspicion by the Republican establishment, declared to cheers, "God bless the great state of Iowa."

The polls were proven wrong: Trump had led in the last dozen statewide surveys.
Keep reading.

Jeb Bush Heckled at Iowa Rally Featuring Paid Seat-Fillers; Scores 6th Place at 2.8 Percent (VIDEO)

At New York Magazine, "Jeb Bush’s Last Rally in Iowa Weighed Down by Dated Conservatism and Reports of Paid Chair-Fillers":
The vibe at Jeb Bush’s downtown Des Moines caucus “briefing” Monday afternoon is upbeat and upscale — but it's taking place under the shadow of reports circulating in the right-wing media that the campaign is paying an army of “seat fillers” $25 an hour to make this rally look full. Paid or unpaid, the attendees are more Young Republican than the Baptist-camp-meeting look that prevailed at the Mike Huckabee rally I attended Sunday.
The caucus results are here, "Republican Iowa GOP Caucus Results 2016." Bush didn't even clear 3 percent.

Watch:



How Ted Cruz Pulled Off Victory in the Iowa Caucuses (VIDEO)

From Philip Bump and Scott Clement , at the Washington Post, "How Ted Cruz won Iowa":


Powered by enormous support from very conservative voters, Ted Cruz surged past expectations to capture a victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday night.

Cruz earned the support of 4 in 10 “very conservative” voters in the state, a group which made up 40 percent of the electorate according to preliminary entrance poll data. Cruz was also backed by 1 out of every 3 evangelical voters -- an important victory in a group that was nearly two-thirds of the electorate.

Donald Trump may have been hampered by two unexpected factors: Weaker than expected performance among new voters and a late surge by Marco Rubio. In the last Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll in Iowa, Trump led Cruz among first-time caucus-goers by 16 points. On Monday night, Trump’s margin among this group was closer to half that.

Rubio earned about as much support from new voters as did Cruz. and was the preferred candidate of about 3 in 10 Iowa Republicans who made up their minds in the last week.

TRUMP FADES WHILE RUBIO CLOSES STRONG

Nearly half of Republican caucus-goers report making their final decision in the week before the caucuses, and the entrance poll shows Rubio performed best among this group. Nearly 3 in 10 of final-week deciders supported Rubio; he garnered about as much support among those deciding in January, but only about 1 in 10 of those who decided earlier than that backed Rubio.

Equally stark was Trump’s weakness among late-deciding voters. Just 14 percent of Republicans who decided in the final week supported Trump, compared with 23 percent of those who decided earlier in January and 40 percent who made their decision in December or earlier.

LARGE EVANGELICAL TURNOUT

Cruz leads among evangelical Christians, who made up over 6 in 10 Republican caucus-goers, their largest share of the vote in recent cycles. Cruz garnered about one-third of the evangelical vote, compared with just over 2 in 10 each for Rubio and Trump. Trump’s margin was similar among non-evangelical Republicans, though they made up fewer than 4 in 10 caucus-goers, lower than 2012 or 2008...
Yes, Rubio did do extremely well, and sucked the air out of Trump's momentum.

But the night really does belong to Ted Cruz. It's impressive, especially considering how he's been taking it from all sides all week, and then proved 'em all wrong.

Donald Trump's a big loser, but he's far from out. This is fantastic because it makes New Hampshire a week from tomorrow a real decision-making and game-changing contest.

Still more.

PREVIOUSLY: "Ted Cruz Beats Donald Trump in Iowa's GOP Caucuses."

No Hillary Clinton Validation! Iowa Democrat Caucuses Too Close to Call! (VIDEO)

Following-up, "Ted Cruz Beats Donald Trump in Iowa's GOP Caucuses."

It's too close to call on the Democrat side.




Expect updates. Hillary's giving her, er, concession speech right now...

Ted Cruz Beats Donald Trump in Iowa's GOP Caucuses

Our long national nightmare is over!

I had on CNN, which had Marco Rubio making a victory speech for his surging 3rd place finish (which is hella impressive). But I missed Donald Trump's concession speech (gonna have to find it on YouTube in a little bit).

Meanwhile, I've got Fox News on now, and we're awaiting Ted Cruz's victory speech. It's really major.

Here's Politico's banner headline, "CRUZ WINS IOWA":
The result is a blow to Donald Trump, whose candidacy is premised on his strength and ability to deliver wins.
More at Instapundit, "NBC CALLS IOWA FOR CRUZ. Trump and Rubio in a very close fight for 2d and 3d place."


Ben Carson Campaign 'Taking a Break' After Iowa Caucuses — UPDATE!

It's been a couple of hours ago now, but CNN's Dana Bash reported that Ben Carson plans to "take a break" after Iowa, to spend time with his family.

I tweeted.


And from Katie Packer:



More at iOTW Report, "Breaking: #BenCarson Will Not Travel to NH, SC in Weeks After Caucuses; Will Go Home Instead."

And at Politico, "Carson isn't quitting after Iowa. He's doing laundry."

Carson's backtracking, via Jennifer Jacobs:


Donald Trump and the Revenge of the Blue Collars

From Laura Ingraham, at LifeZette, "Trump & the Revenge of the Blue Collars":
Mogul connects with frustrated middle class as GOP Establishment lashes out in desperation.

DES MOINES, Iowa — “I think they’re delusional,” said Sam Clovis, Donald Trump’s chief policy adviser and Iowa native, regarding his candidate’s persistent critics at National Review.

“This is absolutely a panic on the part of the Establishment of the Republican Party,” Clovis said.

Indeed, as it looks increasingly likely that the Trump train will steam through Iowa, straight through New Hampshire, South Carolina and on to the GOP nomination, “big government Republicans” are scrambling for relevancy.

Most of them simply refuse to recognize what has happened inside the Republican Party — a total disconnect with the concerns and desires of average Americans.

The main reason for the rise of the insurgent candidates in 2016 isn’t what many of the “experts” believe. It’s not that voters are just drawn to his celebrity or enjoy his insults to the high and mighty. It’s not just that they love his politically incorrect approach to the issues. It’s not just that they enjoy the “fun factor” at his rallies where kids are invited to run around his plane or get free helicopter rides.

The narrative of the GOP presidential primary is best understood by focusing on this one fact: For middle-wage earners in the U.S., the median income in 2014 was 4 percent lower than in 2000.

Pew Research released a report in December that painted a bleak, depressing picture of life for America’s working class. Both political parties — Republicans under George W. Bush, Democrats under Barack Obama — have presided over economies that have left them behind. Worse than that, both Bush and Obama advocated policies that made their economic lives worse in almost every way. And you bet they’re angry.

The rich have done fine. Not surprisingly, they weathered the past two recessions better than any other income group, says Pew. But the subset that suffered the most are some of Trump’s core supporters. Pew found that “adults with no more than a high school diploma lost the most ground economically.”

In other words, Bushism and Obamaism have failed them. The Establishment has failed them. And it was never clear how former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush would govern in a markedly different manner than his brother, given his support for more massive trade deals, more immigration, more wars. That formula has been poisonous to our native-born, middle-income workers.

Whether fair or not, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is seen by most of these same voters as a younger, more politically talented version of Jeb. And they aren’t willing to grant him amnesty for his 2013 immigration push with U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

According to a Gallup analysis of Republican and GOP-leaning independents late last year, Trump had a net favorable score of 36 points among men with no college education, compared to a score of 26 among college graduates. A report from the Public Religion Research Institute released in November also found that a majority — 55 percent — of white Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who support Trump identify as working class. In contrast, self-identified working-class whites only account for roughly a third of other candidates’ supporters.
“We’ve been waiting 30 years for somebody to come along and carry on the legacy of Ronald Reagan, and it hasn’t happened,” Clovis said emphatically.

Batting away his boss’s media assailers, he predicts major Trump victories...
Still more.

PREVIOUSLY: "Outsiders Benefit from Voters' Angst."

WATCH: David Yepsen, Former 34-Year Des Moines Register Political Reporter, Says Mild Weather Could Boost Donald Trump Turnout

From WaPo's Robert Costa, on Twitter, "Iowa reporting legend @DavidYepsen says mild weather today could increase turnout, boost Trump (VIDEO)."

Yepson's now the Director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

Dude's got some creds.

Outsiders Benefit from Voters' Angst

At the Des Moines Register, "How Iowa caucuses got so angry, ripe for outsiders":
HAMPTON, Ia. — This presidential campaign seethes with the anger and frustration of voters who seem to be sick of whatever they consider to be the corrupt, broken “establishment.”

But not here in this quiet, friendly coffee shop where Rick Santorum emphasizes what has become something of a dirty word: experience.

“I’m sort of making the case that, look, I understand your anger,” said the former Pennsylvania senator and winner of the 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses who now languishes at the bottom of the polls. “I was the anti-establishment candidate last time, and that anger was channeled through me.”

But, he insisted, “Channel your anger in a positive direction.”

“I didn’t sell I was going to blow up Washington four years ago.”

The national front-runner and acknowledged beneficiary of unrest on the right this cycle is Donald Trump, the brash billionaire developer who didn’t formally enter the race until June. He boasts that he has made so much money that self-funding his campaign inoculates him from the influence that big donors wage over candidates.

On the left, 74-year-old Bernie Sanders has electrified millennials as their favorite radical grandfather. He embraces what had been assumed to be the politically lethal adjective "socialist" and proclaims a Woodstock-era distrust of Wall Street.

At least one political expert in Iowa says that he has seen this anger brewing for decades as the caucuses have mushroomed into an international reality TV show: Candidates long have promised relief for the economically disadvantaged, but quickly forget caucusgoers once the circus moves on.

Trump had flirted with Iowa for months in early 2015 as the Republican side of the preseason race churned with the typical series of cattle-call events.

Larry Sailer, a stalwart Santorum supporter from rural Hampton, has been irritated by Trump’s rise.

“It’s the same thing that elected Obama eight years ago,” he shook his head. “The popularity deal.”

Conflating Obama and Trump? It’s as if the outsider allure and celebrity mystique now factoring into these caucuses have scrambled everybody’s political calculus.

'There's a lot of angst out there'

This isn’t how the race was supposed to go. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, with a super PAC tailwind of more than $100 million, was expected to dominate the national race and duel in Iowa with whoever emerged as this cycle's darling of the evangelical right. Hillary Clinton, made wiser by her cabinet experience and the 2008 Obama upset, was expected to wow Iowans on her easy waltz to the nomination.

But here we are in February, with Bush's campaign in single digits, a nail-biter race on either side and a path littered with bad predictions.
Keep reading.

10 Questions That Will Be Answered by Tonight's Iowa Caucuses

So, Jennifer Jacobs likes listicles? Who knew, lol?

At the Des Moines Register:

Celebrity Caucuses, Season 1, has its big finale Monday night in Iowa.

“We’ll all know the answer to Mr. Trump’s question, ‘How stupid are the people of Iowa?’” said longtime Iowa Republican activist Richard Rogers. “That answer will depend upon our individual perspective on the relative merits of the candidates.”

The contest in Iowa on the GOP side is down to Donald Trump, the entertainment entrepreneur whose presidential bid was widely ridiculed until he proved his staying power with voters, and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a conservative superstar famous for his government shutdown tactics.

Still in the spotlight, but in a distant third and fourth place, according to the new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, are Marco Rubio, the Florida U.S. senator referred to three years ago in Time magazine as “The Republican Savior” who could sell the GOP on a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants; and Ben Carson, a brain surgeon whose skills were featured in a movie called “Gifted Hands.”

The Democrats are down to a duel between one of the best-known women in America, former first lady and former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and the upstart liberal rock star Bernie Sanders, a Vermont U.S. senator whose call for a political revolution has inspired unexpectedly strong support.

The Iowa caucuses are just the first round of voting in the 2016 presidential race, but they’re disproportionately influential — and the whole political world is waiting for the results.

Here are some of the questions that will be answered Monday night...
Continue reading.

LATEST: Donald Trump Leads Ted Cruz 31-to-24 Percent in Last Iowa Poll Before Caucuses

As if we needed another poll, heh.

At the Hill, "Quinnipiac poll: First-time caucusgoers boost Trump, Sanders in Iowa."

And just now, at Quinnipiac, "First-Timers Put Trump Ahead in #Iowa GOP Caucus; Sanders Needs First-Timers to Tie Clinton in Dem Caucus."

Check back here for all the breaking news throughout the day. Shoot, I've been beating the "bigs" to the latest news all weekend, lol.

ADDED: Oops, I better check my ego here, lol. Ed Morrissey's got an analysis, at Hot Air, "Final Iowa Q-poll: Trump, Sanders up thanks to first-timers."

WATCH: Bernie Sanders Goes Negative? Hillary Clinton's Private Email Server a 'Very Serious Issue' (VIDEO)

Well, he's not going full-on negative, but he's not blowing off questions about Hillary's email scandal either.

And the Clinton campaign has been merciless in attacking Sanders, and it's just the beginning.

Jake Tapper asked him about his personal security detail on the campaign trail, indicating that he's been receiving death threats, which was something the "democratic socialist" thought it was better not to talk about.

Man, this is getting serious folks.

Watch, via CNN (the email comments come toward the end of the interview, after 7:30 minutes):


Voters on 'Ideological Edges' to Set the Tone for 2016

I don't think the millions of white working-class voters providing (most of) the enormous surge of support for Donald Trump's campaign are on the "ideological edge."

On the other hand, 43 percent of Democrats self-identify in recent polling as "socialists," an ideological stance that's by definition to the far-left of the ideological spectrum.

But if you're a leftist, being in favor of secure borders and free markets makes you on "the fringe," or so we're told at the New York Times.

And it's not "may set the tone." Fringe leftists are definitely setting the tone, and the Trump campaign is frankly a push back against that monstrous ideological tendency.

See, "In Iowa, Voters on the Edges May Set Tone for Primaries":
DES MOINES — Iowa, widely derided for being unlike the rest of the United States, was supposed to be irrelevant this year as the presidential race became nationalized — thanks to widely viewed televised debates and the rise of social media.

But as the Iowa caucuses loom on Monday — the first votes after 1,500 candidate rallies, 60,000 TV ads and a nail-biting tightening of the polls here — the state’s voters are poised to play perhaps their most significant role ever in both parties’ nominating contests. And their embrace of candidates on the ideological fringes has amplified a national grass-roots rebellion against establishment politicians.

Both Democrats and Republicans have seen their presumptive nominees of a year ago — deeply experienced, proven political leaders — brushed aside by Iowans in favor of idol-smashing outsiders.

“There’s a tremendous amount of anti-establishment, anti-Washington sentiment here, and I would not be surprised if an outsider on both sides wins,” said Gov. Terry E. Branstad, a Republican, who has exerted himself in an unheard-of effort to derail one of his own party’s front-runners, Senator Ted Cruz.

Voters on the ideological edges, who dominate both parties in Iowa, have made Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, and Donald J. Trump and Mr. Cruz, whose views are anathema to Republican leadership, the standard-bearers of the left and the right.

The embrace of Mr. Sanders and Mr. Trump, visible nationally in huge rallies, has stirred Iowa’s latent Midwest populism, with voters angry about the hollowing out of the middle class, Wall Street greed and the corrupting influence of money in politics. It has created two insurgents who in some ways are opposite sides of the same coin.

The policies of President Obama have added accelerant to the fire, with the far left unhappy he did not go far enough, and the right convinced he radically changed the United States.

“There’s a very disaffected segment of Republican voters and Democratic voters who just want to throw ’em all out,” said David Redlawsk, a political scientist at Rutgers University who wrote a book about the Iowa caucuses. “These particular voters have been told for several cycles, ‘All you have to do is vote for me, and it will be 100 percent different.’ It never is. Sanders and Trump are both benefiting.”

The results of Monday’s caucuses, which will take place in 1,681 precincts across Iowa, ride on such concrete factors as candidates’ get-out-the-vote efforts — but also on intangibles like voters’ perception of who is catching fire at the last minute, and even on the weather. Campaigns were anxiously checking forecasts amid reports of a snowstorm arriving late Monday, but expected that the weather would hold enough to encourage turnout, which could give an edge to the two candidates with large support from first-time voters, Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders. A victory for Mr. Trump, who has drawn thousands to his rallies here, would devastate Mr. Cruz. The senator has deployed waves of volunteers and sought to visit all 99 counties in Iowa to mobilize evangelical Christians, the core of a conservative coalition that he has built along with Tea Partiers and libertarians...
Even Ted Cruz is not on the "ideological fringe." One of the most interesting things at that GOP debate on Thursday was Megyn Kelly hammering Cruz for his past prodigious support for immigration amnesty. But, again, if you're to the right of center, you're on the "ideological fringe," according to the idiot mandarins of our collectivist press.

Still more, FWIW.

Hillary Clinton's Campaign Manager Spent Final Hours Knocking on Doors in Iowa

Boy, they're really trying to avoid the mistakes of the 2008 campaign, heh!

At Boomberg, "Robby Mook Returns to Field Organizing for Final Iowa Push":
With hours to go until his boss faces voters for the first time in eight years, Robby Mook was doing the same, knocking on doors in a small corner of a Des Moines suburb.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager could’ve spent Saturday afternoon holed up in headquarters, shuttling around the state with the candidate or schmoozing politicos in the lobby of the Marriott. Instead, he was making his way through a solidly middle class Urbandale neighborhood, checking in with committed supporters.

“Hey! My name’s Robby. I’m here with Hillary Clinton’s campaign,” he says once it's clear that the person answering the door is the person on the list of confirmed supporters that he picked up from a nearby field office, just as any volunteer would. “I was just coming by to remind you about the caucus on Monday.”

Though two Bloomberg journalists spent about 45 minutes watching Mook visit 15 houses on a gray but warm-for-January afternoon, it wasn’t just a photo-op. He would’ve been doing this without reporters watching him and planned to do it again on Sunday and Monday, schedule permitting. In all, people at eight houses answered their doors, five of whom said they would be caucusing for Clinton. At one door, a man supporting former Florida Governor Jeb Bush said that his wife—who was out of the house when Mook visited—was the Clinton supporter. At another, a man identified as a Clinton supporter seemed to be engaged in a tense moment with his son. A woman said she and her husband were Clinton supporters but that she had a doctor's appointment and may not be able to make it.

Mook has built his career on field work—the collection and analysis of meticulous data. He proved himself as her 2008 state director in Nevada, Ohio and Indiana. And when it was time to build her 2016 team, the lessons of being out-organized by Barack Obama in Iowa and beyond made Mook, a 36-year-old Vermont native, Clinton’s choice for the job.

Clinton had a slim three-point lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, in the final Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, conducted Jan. 26-29. With the race so tight, both campaigns are determined to get their low-hanging fruit – committed supporters – to caucus sites. The Sanders campaign said its volunteers knocked on close to 77,000 doors on Friday and Saturday, while the Clinton campaign knocked on more than 125,000 doors over the weekend.

“Part of this is just simply having a human interaction where we remind them," Mook says while walking along a winding residential street that changed names three times in the span of a few dozen houses. “But a really important part of this is actively making a plan with them. So if I get someone in person, I want to make sure that they’ve made sure they’ve thought about where they’re gonna leave from to go to the caucus, how they’re getting there and if they’re bringing anyone with them. We know that if they have a plan in place, they’re more likely to show up.”
The Iowa caucuses have never been more important, which is amazing, considering it's the most intense style of retail politics you could have, and we live in an era of the highest electronic technology we've ever seen. But with the campaigns on both sides too close to call, the ground game is the be all end all of 2016.

More.

Check back for more throughout the day...

'You talk to Iowans about this extremely long group of presidential candidates that are going all over the state, and their eyes glaze over sometimes...'

Yes, and the campaign's just beginning for the rest of the country, heh.

Watch, here's Pat Kessler reporting for WCCO News 4 Minneapolis, "Presidential Candidates Make Final Push Before Iowa Caucuses."

Former MSNBC schlock jock Ed Schultz (now working for the Putin propaganda channel Russia Today) can seen in the background, right before Kessler interviews Islamic congressman Keith Ellison, who's apparently campaigning for Bernie Sanders. Naturally, they'd be out campaigning for the hardline communist.

Democrats Neck and Neck in Iowa (VIDEO)

Watch, at ABC News, "Democrats Neck and Neck With Caucuses One Day Away."
New poll numbers show Hillary Clinton with a slight lead in Iowa, but Sen. Bernie Sanders points to new fundraising data as proof of a possible upset.
And from yesterday, "Bernie Sanders Draws Massive Over-Capacity Crowd in Iowa City, Iowa (VIDEO)."

Sunday, January 31, 2016

Is Donald Trump for Real?

The proof is in the pudding, as they say.

At the Washington Post, "Is Donald Trump for real? We’ll start getting an answer in Iowa":
DUBUQUE, Iowa — As Republican front-runner Donald Trump arrived in Iowa this weekend for a final burst of campaigning ahead of the Monday caucuses, he did so in his usual over-the-top fashion: rolling his jet to a stop in front of an airport hangar filled with supporters in this eastern Iowa river town.

The arrival — set to the theme song from the movie “Air Force One” — captured the surreal theatrics that have defined Trump’s candidacy, attracting attention in a way that prompts many to ask: “Is this for real? Is he for real?”

In any other election year, with any other candidate, Trump’s consistently high poll numbers and massive rally crowds would earn him the title of presumed nominee. But this year is unlike any other and Trump is unlike any other GOP candidate — a thrice-married billionaire real estate developer who has never held elected office, wears white shoes to the Iowa State Fair, curses at his rallies and gives rides to children in his Trump-emblazoned helicopter.

Yet Trump is on the cusp of something historic: A candidate who has broken nearly every rule of traditional campaigning is favored to win the Iowa caucuses and several primary contests to follow. The prospect has continued to baffle political pundits, strategists and party leaders, many of whom don’t seem to want to believe what is happening until they see some proof. The Monday caucuses provide Trump with the opportunity to provide some.

“It’s very frustrating because if anybody had the numbers and the turnout and the support that Donald Trump has, I don’t think the media would have any problem saying the normal stuff — that he’s a shoo-in,” said Ted Hacker, 39, who lives in Dubuque and started a trucking company with his wife a year ago. He plans to caucus for the first time on Monday, casting his vote for Trump in hopes of proving that the candidate’s supporters aren’t just fans looking to be entertained. “It’s very frustrating.”
It's all about the turnout, and after reading that piece from Sasha Issenberg, I'm even less sure about Iowa than ever. It's crazy!

But keep reading.

Whoa! Donald Trump Downplays Significance of Hawkey State on Eve of Iowa Caucuses (VIDEO)

Well, he rattles off all the states where he's leading in the polls.

There's no context, but still. Ruptly says "Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump named states that he expects to win his party's nomination, while speaking at a campaign rally in Sioux City, Sunday, in an attempt to ease concerns about his performance in the upcoming Iowa caucus."

Watch: