Amy Lindsay, who starred in now-pulled Ted Cruz ad, considers herself a "conservative Republican," per @JakeTapper on @CNN. #TEDCRUZ— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) February 12, 2016
COLUMBIA, S.C. — With Donald J. Trump’s decisive victory in New Hampshire and no strong runner-up among a pack of also-rans, the Republican race barreled into South Carolina on Wednesday shadowed by a question: whether any alternative candidate can gain enough support to threaten Mr. Trump’s drive to the nomination.Maybe Jebbie will pull out the Barbara Bush "big guns" to rally the rubes in South Carolina. You want a "disaster for the Republican Party"? Nominate Jeb for a third Bush term. It's sickening.
Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, the second-place finisher in New Hampshire with less than half the support of Mr. Trump, arrives in this more conservative Southern state where he has little staff or support. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, resuming an effort here to enlist the Christian right, the key to his victory in Iowa, faces a playing field where evangelical voters are far less monolithic. And former Gov. Jeb Bush, buoyed by outperforming his Florida rival Senator Marco Rubio, has a chance to open more daylight — but it is unclear if it will be enough to inspire establishment-leaning Republicans to coalesce behind him.
On the Democratic side, Senator Bernie Sanders’s idealistic message, which inspired a decisive victory in New Hampshire over Hillary Clinton, faces a sharp test in South Carolina, where Democrats are more moderate and demographically diverse.
Mr. Trump is quite likely to face a kind of scrutiny here he has so far avoided: The only Republican candidate who does not favor increased military spending, he must woo a state with eight bases and 58,000 military retirees. His Vietnam War draft deferments may also be an issue.
While Mr. Trump has led in every poll in South Carolina since July, Mr. Bush has invested substantial resources here. His aides say 1,000 volunteers have knocked on doors at more than 50,000 homes. His brother, former President George W. Bush, who is expected to campaign alongside him here, appeared in an ad in South Carolina during the Super Bowl, declaring, “Jeb Bush is a leader who will keep our country safe.”
“The commander-in-chief question is going to be a big one,” said Jim Dyke, a senior adviser to Mr. Bush here. “If you look at exit polls from 2008 and 2012, in both elections about 25 percent identified as active military or had served in the military.”
Donald Trump got everything he wanted in New Hampshire primary—and a whole lot more. He's not only a stronger frontrunner in the Republican race than ever; he's now in the driver's seat on the road to the presidential nomination.Still more.
Trump is dominant. Here are a few examples:
* Every Republican candidate who finished first and second in Iowa and New Hampshire has won the presidential nomination. Having done so, Trump is now in a class with Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, and Mitt Romney. John McCain was a partial exception in 2000, having basically skipped Iowa and then won in New Hampshire. And it doesn't matter where the first and second place finishes occurred. Reagan was second in Iowa in 1980, then won New Hampshire. Dole won Iowa in 1996 and settled for second to Pat Buchanan in New Hampshire.
* That New Hampshire failed to force all the marginal candidates out of the race is a boon for Trump. There's still no single "establishment" candidate to oppose him. There are three, maybe four, and they're fighting each other, not Trump. This is important. If Jeb Bush is still running when the Florida primary occurs on March 15, he'll split the establishment vote with Marco Rubio. And Trump will win Florida. A similar situation will exist in Ohio if Kasich, the state's governor, hangs around. Kasich and Rubio and maybe Bush will form a circular firing squad. Should Trump win both states, the race is over.
* Trump was zinged after Iowa because his vote was less than polls had forecast. But in New Hampshire, the opposite happened. The RealClear average of New Hampshire polls pegged Trump at 29.5 percent. He got better than 34 percent of the actual vote.
* There were suspicions Trump's percentage would be significantly less than previous winners in New Hampshire. It was in some cases, mostly campaigns with fewer top tier candidates than this year. Trump slightly trailed Bush (38 percent) in 1988 and McCain in 2000 (37). But he beat Buchanan (27) in 1996. No embarrassment here.
* The Trump magic appears to be spreading to states with upcoming primaries...
Backers Stayed With Donald Trump As He Regained His Bearings, via @MaggieNYT https://t.co/2heJJNljGr
— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) February 10, 2016
.@UMassLowell @UML_CPO @7News tracking poll update for Republican #NHPrimary https://t.co/8rcR1o7YS8 pic.twitter.com/XLSOcoSDwU
— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 7, 2016
Tracking poll 2/7 #NHPrimary Reps
— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 7, 2016
Trump 36
Rubio 14
Cruz 13
Bush 10
Kasich 9
Christie 4
Fiorina 4
Carson 3
DK 7https://t.co/8rcR1o7YS8
For GOP, could change mind...
— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 7, 2016
Trump 26
Cruz 47
Rubio 54
Kasich 44
Bush 39
Rubio has most to lose of top 5 Reps in NH https://t.co/e5t2jRzzAL
Rubio was speechless moments after the debate, Christie told his advisers https://t.co/8CninXdcqk pic.twitter.com/fEFmvEkrqT— Jon Ward (@jonward11) February 7, 2016
Who benefits from Christie beating up on Rubio?— Robert Stacy McCain (@rsmccain) February 7, 2016
JEB BUSH.
Beware the SHADOW MENACE!https://t.co/Q5pOLKDgi4
Rubio blew it tonight https://t.co/CFuKVttwnw
— ColorMeRed (@ColorMeRed) February 7, 2016
MANCHESTER, N.H. — Moments after the Republican debate ended Saturday, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie walked over to Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, shook his hand, and offered some customary words of encouragement.Keep reading.
Rubio stared mutely back, looking flummoxed, Christie told close aides moments later, according to one Christie adviser who was in the room.
Christie and his team were buoyant after the New Jersey governor mauled Rubio in a one-on-one face-off in the first half-hour of the debate, repeatedly mocking Rubio for what he called his lack of experience and accomplishments. It was, clearly, a bad night for Rubio. The question now is: Who benefits from the fallout?
Rubio came into the debate with momentum, following a surprisingly strong third-place finish at the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1. But he got in trouble Saturday starting with the very first question that came his way, which was about “readiness to be president.” The senator, who said he was “proud” of his record, then attempted to shift the discussion to President Barack Obama...
CNN came out swinging against Ted Cruz Saturday night after the Texas senator once again tried to blame the network for his campaign's use of its report to tell Ben Carson's Iowa Caucus supporters that their candidate was dropping out of the race.More.
"What Senator Cruz said tonight in the debate is categorically false," a network spokesperson said in a statement. "CNN never corrected its reporting because CNN never had anything to correct. The Cruz campaign's actions the night of the Iowa caucuses had nothing to do with CNN's reporting. The fact that Senator Cruz continues to knowingly mislead the voters about this is astonishing."
Right as the Iowa caucus was beginning, CNN reported that Carson was not flying directly to New Hampshire and would instead fly to Florida for some days off and to get a fresh set of clothes.
Messages sent out to Cruz supporters at the caucuses made it seem as though Carson was suspending his campaign, and urged them to convince Carson supporters to jump to Cruz, who ended up winning the Caucus...
MANCHESTER, N.H. — With time running out before the New Hampshire primary, the top Republican rivals desperately tried to land knock-out punches at Saturday night’s debate — and most of them were aiming at Marco Rubio.Keep reading.
Rubio’s adversaries went after the Florida senator from all angles, eager to slow his momentum by portraying him as a lightweight leader whose campaign has been lifted by little more than lofty rhetoric.
Chris Christie led the charge, slamming Rubio for memorizing talking points and for his thin record in the Senate, as he declared that Rubio “simply does not have the experience to be president of the United States.”
Christie urged Republicans not to make the “same mistake we made eight years ago” in electing a first-term senator, Barack Obama. Jeb Bush eagerly joined the Rubio pile-on. “We’ve tried it the old way,” Bush said, echoing Christie’s warning of an Obama repeat act.
When Rubio repeated himself by pivoting three times to the fact that Obama is carrying out his flawed plan for the White House — saying he “knows exactly what he's doing" — Christie pounced. “There it is, the memorized 25-second speech,” Christie declared. “There it is, everybody.”
When Rubio listed some of his Senate accomplishments, Christie hammered him on that, too, in particular Rubio’s backing of a bill cracking down on Hezbollah, and his spotty attendance record for Senate votes. “That’s not leadership,” Christie said. “That’s truancy.”
Rubio tried to hit back at Christie over attendance, only to have it boomerang. The Florida senator pointed that Christie only reluctantly went back to New Jersey for 36 hours during a big snow storm. "That had to shame you into going back,” Rubio said.
Christie shot back — “The shame is, Marco, you would actually criticizes someone for showing up to work."
Donald Trump shushed Jeb Bush during a feisty exchange between the two Republican candidates on eminent domain.
Trump was asked a question about eminent domain and he defended it, provoking Bush to interject that Trump used it to build a "limousine parking lot for his casino in Atlantic City."
When Bush moved to interrupt the real estate mogul, Trump raised one finger to his lips.
"Quiet," Trump said to Bush. The audience booed, and Trump said the booing was because of all the wealthy donors in the audience.
"The RNC told us we have all donors in the audience. And the reason they're not loving me is I don't want their money," Trump said, as the crowd continued to boo.
During the exchange he also said eminent domain was important because without it there wouldn't be roads or other essential public works.
"Without eminent domain, you don't have roads, highways, schools or anything. eminent domain is an absolutely necessity for a country," Trump said.
Trump also accused Bush of "trying to be a tough guy," to which Bush responded by asking Trump how "tough" he had to be when, per Bush's accusation, Trump attempted to use eminent domain to seize property from an elderly woman.
The 6th release of the @UML_CPO @UMassLowell @7News #NHPrimary tracking poll is here; Sanders +14, Trump +21 https://t.co/8rcR1nQnty
— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 6, 2016
Trump 35 Rubio 14 Cruz 13 Kasich 10 Bush 10 Christie 4 Carson 3 Fiorina 3 - @UML_CPO @7News #NHPrimary tracking poll https://t.co/8rcR1nQnty
— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 6, 2016
41% of Republican #NHPrimary LVs could still change their mind; 11% of registered Republicans undecided https://t.co/8rcR1nQnty
— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 6, 2016
When Jeb Bush entered the presidential race, he had a vision of a transformative candidacy that would remake the Republican Party, attracting young people and minorities — especially Latinos — with a vibrant new image based on solid conservative principles.He might have to drop out after Monday night, but perhaps he's a glutton for punishment, or doesn't want to embarrass his family? I don't know. But the sooner he drops out the better --- it's been merciless on those who've had to watch.
Now it has come to this: A dismal finish in the Iowa caucuses, a slog through New Hampshire and a growing wish in the party that Bush would step aside or, at least, tone down his campaign so he doesn't hurt someone more likely to win — such as Marco Rubio, who reflects much of what Bush hoped to accomplish when he ran.
It is, he tells audiences, an exciting and joyful experience.
But for others watching, who know Bush and his family personally, or who witnessed his firm command as Florida's two-term governor, the spectacle is sad and disheartening to see. “It bothers people because they believe he deserves better,” said Susan MacManus, who teaches political science at the University of South Florida and has closely followed Bush and his career for decades.
Stepping into a Bush campaign event can seem like a voyage to the past.
The family lineage is evident even without the ritual invocation of his mother — who campaigned alongside Bush in New Hampshire on Thursday night — his father and, sometimes, his oldest brother, both former president. There is the awkward syntax, the preppy manner and, above all, the unfashionable reverence for elected office and the sanctity of the political process.
Noting that businessman Donald Trump has used profanity three times in a recent speech — Bush had obviously counted — he insisted, “Look, I'm no fuddy-duddy. But this should be at least [PG]-rated. I mean, we're running for president of the United States. There are children listening to this stuff!”
The issues he talks about — term limits, a balanced-budget amendment — were moldy when his brother sought the White House 16 years ago and some of his language can sound oddly old-fashioned as he warns against abusing a president's executive powers, “Oh, my goodness gracious!” or throws a session open to questions with an exuberant, “Give me some doozies!”
There is a hopeful Bush scenario in New Hampshire: a strong finish in Tuesday's primary, which sends him roaring into the next contest in South Carolina, where he emerges as the favorite of those in the Republican Party desperate to stop the insurgencies of Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.It seems improbable, however.
New Hampshire rescued Bush's father, then-Vice President George H.W. Bush, after he stumbled in Iowa in 1988. The state tripped up his older brother, the front-running George W. Bush, and almost cost him the GOP nomination to a surging John McCain in 2000.
This time, though, Jeb Bush rests far back among the also-rans, easily overlooked but for the bombardment of TV and radio advertisements savaging Trump and, especially, Florida Sen. Rubio, a former protégé-turned-campaign-nemesis.
The onslaught has angered many Republicans, including lawmakers on Capitol Hill, who see it as gratuitous, hopeless and, worse, potentially damaging to a candidate some have started to see as their best general election candidate after Rubio's strong third-place finish Monday night in Iowa. Bush appears unmoved.
“Guess what? This is not beanbag,” he said when a woman at a Laconia Town Hall meeting complained about the pile of attack mailers she has received from a pro-Bush political action committee, which has spent tens of millions of dollars attacking Rubio. “If you think it's ugly right now, wait till you get to the general election.”
With an edge to his voice, Bush offered this unsolicited advice to Rubio, who has complained about the barrage of negativity: “Get over it, man. This is politics.”
The former governor is 62, older than the 44-year-old Rubio but younger than Trump and both of the two Democrats running for president...
The Republican presidential debate night in New Hampshire Saturday will feature the smallest array of candidates yet, but the stakes are higher than ever: For several candidates, this debate could be their swan song.Keep reading.
Among the seven candidates on the stage, there are several for whom a strong showing in New Hampshire is a make-or-break affair. Unlike prior nights, there is no undercard debate.
The line up has been whittled to seven as three candidates have quit the race after poor performances in Iowa — former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Sen. Rick Santorum, and Sen. Rand Paul. Also missing is former Hewlett-Packard chief Carly Fiorina, who was excluded from the stage because she didn’t do well enough in Iowa or recent polls.
For the seven who remain, here is what they need to accomplish in the debate at St. Anselm’s College in Manchester, N.H...
