Holding Pattern: Challenges for a Nominee-in-Waiting

The weekend's GOP caucauses and primaries did little to damage John McCain's ultimate nomination as the GOP standard-bearer, although Mike Huckabee's electoral support highlights the challenges to the nominee-in-waiting.

The New York Times has an analysis:

Just as Senator John McCain appeared poised to become the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, he was reminded over the weekend that many Republican voters still have not climbed aboard his bandwagon.

Mr. McCain, who won enough delegates in the coast-to-coast nominating contests on Tuesday to place him mathematically beyond the reach of his Republican rivals, suffered embarrassing losses in the Louisiana primary and the Kansas caucuses on Saturday to former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.

Mr. Huckabee, who brags that in college “I didn’t major in math, I majored in miracles,” also wrestled Mr. McCain to a virtual draw on Saturday in the Washington State caucuses. Party officials declared Mr. McCain the winner by several hundred votes.

The Huckabee campaign announced Sunday on its Web site that it would challenge the results of the Washington caucuses. At issue are 1,500 votes that the Huckabee campaign says were not counted.

Results of the weekend contests do not affect Mr. McCain’s solid lead, or change the likelihood of his winning the nomination. But they underlined the thinness of support for him among religious and social conservatives, who make up the bulk of Mr. Huckabee’s voters, and the problem that has dogged Mr. McCain’s presidential aspirations since 2000: how to overcome the distrust he elicits from that core constituency in his party while maintaining credibility as the unorthodox Republican whom moderates, independents and many Democrats like so much.

Before the elections on Saturday, Mr. McCain seemed ready to begin casting the net wide for those independent voters.

“We have to energize our base and yet continue to reach out because we know that the formula for success in most campaigns, as you know, is your base, independents and Reagan Democrats,” he told reporters on a flight from Wichita, Kan., to Seattle.

I don't think Huckabee's lingering campaign fundamentally changes the McCain calculus on reaching out to conservatives.

The conservative split of '08 is the biggest political story of the season. Huckabee's continued campaign serves to highlight McCain's weaknesses with the base of the party, but the risks are on both sides. While the former Arkansas Governor has so far played nice in his battle with the Republican frontrunner, campaigns have way of getting nasty.

Huckabee's in his rights to challenge the election results in Washington, for example, but ratcheting up the competition too firmly may only alienate him from McCain. While the Arizona Senator's obviously reconciled with his maverick relationship to the base, he'll only tolerate an upstart for so long. If Huckabee truly has aspirations for a top position in a McCain administration - and in presidential politics beyond '08 - he needs to face the challenge of his mathematical reality as well.

It's time concede the nomination to McCain.

McCain is Already Gone!

I've been blogging John McCain like a wild-eyed maverick for the last month or so.

With the Arizona Senator's decisive showing in the Super Tuesday primaries last night, now might be a good time to take a breather. I'm taking my wife and sons to Las Vegas for a long weekend.

We've planned a visit to Mandalay Bay's "Shark Reef" aquarium, as well as a magic show at the Tropicana.

So in lieu of a big, beefy post analyzing the election results, let me just share some of my more irreverent musings of recent weeks.

My family gave me books and music for Christmas. One of the CDs I received was the "Eagles - Their Greatest Hits 1971-1975."

I've been playing it during my morning drive just about every day, and some of the songs have reminded me of the current happenings in the GOP race.

While McCain fell short of clinching the Republican nomination last night, he did notch enough wins for unimpeachable frontrunner status. For all intents and purposes, the Arizona Senator's "Already Gone" (via YouTube):

Well, I heard some people talkin’ just the other day
And they said you were gonna put me on a shelf
But let me tell you I got some news for you
And you’ll soon find out it’s true
And then you’ll have to eat your lunch all by yourself
’cause I’m already gone
And I’m feelin’ strong
I will sing this vict’ry song, woo, hoo,hoo,woo,hoo,hoo

Folks sure did want to put McCain on a shelf last summer, when his campaign was broke and sinking in the polls. Now, though, he's raging back, steamrolling his way to the nomination, and Rush Limbaugh's going to have to eat his lunch all by himself.

Mitt Romney proved dramatically that the irrational right bet on the wrong horse this season. Romney won his home state, and five other small states, and in his concession speech - despite his fading importance - he vowed to stay in the race.

His Eagles song: "Take it to the Limit" (on YouTube):

So put me on a highway
And show me a sign
And take it to the limit one more time

Take it to the limit
Take it to the limit
Take it to the limit one more time

(Mike Huckabee was going to be paired with Mitt Romney for taking the primaries to the limit, but his unexpected strength in the Bible Belt last night's given him a "Peaceful Easy Feeling" regarding his future influence on the GOP).

I thought about Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson as well. Their song: "One of These Nights" (on YouTube):

One of these dreams
One of these lost and lonely dreams
We’re gonna find one
One that really screams...

One of these nights
In between the dark and the light
Coming right behind you
Swear I’m gonna find you
Get ’ya baby one of these nights
One of these nights

And Ron Paul? Because of his utter hypocrisy on the congressional pork barrel, his song's "You Can't Hide Your Lyin' Eyes" (on YouTube).

Glenn Frey sings, "On the other side of town a boys is waiting...," but for Paul we sing "On the other side of town earmarks awaiting..."

You can't hide your lyin' eyes
And your smile is a thin disguise
I thought by now you'd realize
There ain't no way to hide you lyin' eyes

I'll be back Sunday afternoon. Regular posting should resume shortly thereafter.

As is my usual practice, I'll visit and comment at the blog of all those who comment here (excepting anti-McCainiacs, of course).

Have a great weekend!!

Unbridled Fury: The Left-Wing Plot to Elect McCain?

Noemie Emery offers a powerful analysis of the far-right's derangement surrounding the McCain surge of primary '08. There must be a left-wing plot behind the Arizona Senator's rise:

THERE IS A LEFT-WING conspiracy at loose in the world, dedicated to undoing conservative governance, only the people who see it aren't sure what it is. John McCain is in it, of course, in fact he is the cause of it, as making him president is the ultimate goal. He is blamed for running, (and perhaps, for breathing), but beyond him the face of the threat is less clear. In fact, the faces are those of other conservative stalwarts, who were their heroes and brethren until--until, say, just after the Florida primary, when McCain emerged as a serious threat. These include Mike Huckabee, the once well-thought of former Arkansas governor (and hero of the social conservative part of the movement), who unaccountably refuses to withdraw from the race on their orders; Tom Coburn and Sam Brownback, perhaps the most conservative members of the United States Senate; Jack Kemp, the supply-side Reagan enthusiast; Phil Gramm, the most conservative Republican to run in the 1996 contest; and Ted Olson, the hero of the Federalist Society, who argued and won the case of Bush vs. Gore. (They may also include the late President Reagan's widow, who, according to the Drudge Report, hearts John McCain.)

Mysteriously, these past heroes of the Heritage Foundation, CPAC gatherings, movement conservatives, and, of course, talk radio, have become the prime targets of--movement conservatives and talk radio, who in their boundless and unbridled fury seem now to have sensed in them aspects of deception and wussiness they never detected before. They are discovered in retrospect to have committed grave sins of co-and-omission that were not before evident. They are on the payroll of Moveon.org, if not of George Soros. They will never be trusted again.

Actually, they have not done a thing beyond endorsing a four-term Republican senator with a lifetime 82 percent ACU rating, but this isn't the point. The point is that the ideological right is filled with a vast, free-floating fury that can't find a target upon which to dump all this ire. At least, not one that either makes logical sense, or provides a psychologically satisfying object on which to unload all this feeling. Is it McCain himself, who refused to stay dead when they thought he was done with? Is it Mike Huckabee, who stopped Romney in Iowa, and so, as they think, drains votes from their hero? Is it Rudy Giuliani, who refused to stay in and drain votes from McCain, but had the bad taste to drop out after Florida? Is it Mitt himself, who is a bit of stiff, and whose frontrunner strategy bombed early on in the contest? Is it Fred!, who refused to catch fire? Is it George Allen, who had the bad sense in 2006 to utter the damned word 'macaca,' and thus lose his once safe seat in the Senate, with which he would have been the front-runner? Is it Jeb Bush, who didn't a) endorse Mitt, or b) change his name to Jeb Jones, in which case HE would have been the front runner and stopped John McCain?

All this emotion, and no easy target, unless it's a 'what,' not a 'who.' Is it the calendar, that depraved little rascal, that gave McCain the gift early on of his favorite state of New Hampshire, and then tossed him Florida before the glow of his win in South Carolina wore off? (But this is the year of no-mentum.) Is it the press, which loves liberals, setting up their favorite apostate Republican, to push their agenda? (But polls show--and Democrats say--that he would be the strongest candidate against the real liberals--Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton--when the big race comes up in the fall.) This doesn't make sense, so it must be . . . the voters, the Republican voters, the ones on their side, they ones they court and appeal to, the ones of whom they spoke so glowingly in 2002 and 2004, some of whom were voting in the glory years of l980-l988. But blaming the voters is really too painful to mention, so it must the 'establishment' that betrayed them, the 'country club Republicans' as opposed to the genuine voice of the people, the people who always detested the great Ronald Reagan, and backed Gerald Ford--William Scranton--Nelson Rockefeller!--back in the day. And who are these nefarious 'establishment' figures who are fooling the voters by backing this sinister liberal?

Sam Brownback, Tom Coburn, Phil Gramm, Ted Olson, Jack Kemp, and perhaps Richard Land, the evangelical stalwart, who turned thumbs down earlier upon Giuliani.

And so it goes on.

And so Sam Brownback, Tom Coburn, Phil Gramm, Jack Kemp, Ted Olson, Richard Land, and perhaps Nancy Reagan are now the worst foes of the modern conservative movement. With enemies such as these, who needs friends?

Crazy!

Awesome discussion - one of the best on McCain Derangement that I've seen.

What's particularly interesting about all of this is the vengeful stubbornness surrounding events. Many outstanding bloggers I've read over the last couple of years seem to be pulling temper tantrums, or frankly they're afraid that if they appear just a teeny-weeny bit pragmatic, their conservative circle of blog buddies will abandon them.

Who wants to lose their readership? Captain Ed's doesn't, in my opinion.

Brian over at Liberty Pundit doesn't mince words on his MDS:

I’ll never vote for John McCain, not in a million years. If that means a President Hillary or President Obama, so be it. If the country is going to move left no matter who we elect and serious damage be done, I’d much rather it be at the hands of the Democrats than someone who claims to belong to the same party as I do. When they fail (and they will), it’ll be that much easier for real conservatives to take back the Party and get us moving in the right direction again.

I noted yesterday there's a conservative counter-movement afoot, to slap some sense in those habituating the vast far-right wing anti-McCain movement.

It's hard to say where things are headed - for example, whether or not we'll see a party reconciliation - but I think it's safe to say that we're witnessing the emergence of an unreconstructed conservative minority in election '08.

Hopefully these rebels will find and slay their true conspirators and plotters, which will allow them to return some day to the GOP fold.

The Decline of the Polarizing Left?

There's been some recent commentary suggesting one of the biggest losers in primary season '08 is the angry left.

With top hard-left candidates John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich already out of the race, have the radical netroots Democratic Party activists sunk to irrelevancy?

Dan Gerstein made an interesting observation on this over the weekend, at the Wall Street Journal. He argues that while the Clinton-Obama South Carolina results appeared to resolve tensions over race and politics, the underlying significance of Obama's victory was to relegate the Daily Kos angry hordes to the sidelines of the party:

This conflict is not about ideology but about style. The truth is, over the past several years Democrats have bridged or buried most of the major issue splits that hobbled the party in the past, as evidenced by the absence of big policy debates in this campaign. That's left us to stew, particularly in the wake of John Kerry's embittering loss in 2004, over how we fight the other side. There is a clear generational split.

The Kossacks and their activist allies -- who skew toward the Boomers -- believe that Republicans are venal bordering on evil, and that the way Democrats will win elections and hold power is to one-up Karl Rove's divisive, bare-knuckled tactics. Their opponents within the party -- who skew younger and freer of culture war wounds -- believe that the way to win is offer voters a break from this poisonous tribal warfare and a compelling, inclusive vision for where we want to take the country.

The country got an initial taste of this tactical tussle in 2006 when the Lieberman-Lamont Senate campaign in Connecticut went national -- and an initial test of the relative merits in the general-election portion of that race (in which I was Joe Lieberman's communications director).

With a discredited Republican candidate in the race, the choice came down to two Democrats who actually agreed on most issues outside of Iraq, but differed on the kind of change we need in Washington. Mr. Lieberman called for a new politics of unity and purpose; Mr. Lamont mostly called for Messrs. Bush's and Lieberman's heads.

The hope candidate soundly beat the Kos candidate -- Kos actually taped a commercial for Lamont -- by 10 points. More importantly, Mr. Lieberman won independents (the biggest voting bloc in the state) by 19 points, which is all the more remarkable because they opposed the war by a margin of 65%-29%.

This year's Democratic nominating battle is a far better barometer of the respective generational approaches within the party. That's because it is happening within the context of a true intra-party competition, there is no real disagreement on Iraq or any other core issue, and there is no incumbent. Not least of all, the two young attractive change candidates (Edwards and Obama) running against the establishment candidate (Hillary Clinton) have been offering opposite conceptions of change.

Mr. Edwards, after running as the sunny son of a mill worker in 2004, returned last year as the angry spear carrier of the hard-line left, running on a dark, conspiratorial form of populism and swapping in corporations for Republicans as the villain in his us-versus-them construct. Mr. Obama, on the other hand, has not just been selling possibilities and opportunities, but reconciliation and unity -- and, god forbid, promising to work with Republicans to meet the country's challenges. (Not surprisingly, throughout 2007, Mr. Edwards was the runaway favorite in the regular Kos reader straw poll -- besting Mr. Obama by 21 points as late as Jan. 2, 2008.)

Now that Mr. Edwards has formally dropped out of the race, we can say it's official -- hope and unity crushed resentment and division.

That's an especially perceptive analysis of Democratic Party dynamics this year.

Note, though, that The Caucus also weighed in on the declining significance of the polarizing left in '08:

During the last five years, no movement has had as great an impact on progressive politics as the liberal blogosphere. Built from grassroots anger over Democratic leadership support for the Iraq war in 2002, liberal bloggers have chastised party leaders who backed President Bush, causing many prominent Democrats to reverse — and even recant — their positions on the war. Just as impressively, the blog voices on the left have played a critical role in pushing less visible issues — like electronic voting machines, bankruptcy legislation and telephone companies’ liability in wiretapping programs — into the mainstream....

But notwithstanding this stunning success, this week’s withdrawal by John Edwards, coming a week after the departure of Dennis Kucinich, means that both of the preferred presidential candidates of the liberal blogosphere are now out of the race. Instead, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, the two candidates who have drawn some of the sharpest criticism on progressive blogs, are the only ones who will make it to Super Tuesday....

The blogosphere has had impressive electoral success in Senate and House races, especially in 2006. But at the presidential level, while the blogosphere has been effective in changing the political debate and the party’s direction, it has been less successful in helping its preferred candidates to victory. Why?

The article offer three explanations, of which this one's most compelling:

The blogosphere advances confrontational politics, and winning presidential campaigns are exercises in uniting the country. One way in which the blogosphere has had the greatest impact on Democratic leaders has been to encourage — demand — that they take stronger stands against President Bush and Republican leaders in Congress. Blog-backed winners in Senate races — like Jim Webb and Jon Tester — are classic examples of the feisty, stand-up/stand-tough candidates that the blogosphere applauds. But for many reasons, that sort of approach isn’t as effective in presidential campaigns, where leading candidates in both parties seek victory by emphasizing their ability to “bring the country together,” “to be a uniter,” to be “a president for all Americans.” As a result, the blogopsheric voice that has been so successful in calling the party to action, has not yet found the right pitch for advocating a particular candidate in a Presidential campaign.

Read the whole thing.

I've long noted how intensely the hard-left netroots suffers from hubris and megalomania (especially Markos Moulitsas)

I think it's premature to count them out of left-wing politics, however.

Antiwar and GOP-bashing online hordes will continue to bully Democratic Party centrists in Congress and around the country in electoral contests.

The netroots movement - with its victory in backing Ned Lamont over Joseph Lieberman in 2006 - is a case study in the politics of fear striking at the heart of every Democratic incumbent worried about a challenge from the left in their state's primary.

In Congress, although antiwar hardliners have conceded defeat in the current battles with the Bush administration over Iraq, look for the polarizing left to be back with a vengeance come November, especially in the case of a victory for the Democratic ticket.

The online masses have a proven ability to raise massive amounts of money, and this influence is likely to grow in the years ahead.

What needs to happen?

Regular folks need to come right out and say they're disgusted with the demonization politics practiced by the most vengeful practitioners of radical left wing politics. Joseph Lieberman ultimately handed the netroots a defeat, and in 2007 state races the GOP did fairly well (Bobby Jindal in Louisiana is an especially striking example, given the outrage over Hurricane Katrina and alleged Bush adminisration neglect national infrastructure), so goodness can prevail over the nihilist politics of dread.

So, as good as these essays are, conservatives need to be prepared for some of most intense left-wing attack politics the political system's ever seen.

Bob Dole Takes Down Rush Limbaugh on McCain Attacks

CNN reports that former Senator Bob Dole, the 1996 GOP standard-bearer, has rebuked Rush Limbaugh in a letter defending John McCain. The right-wing talk radio host has led conservative attacks on McCain's alleged liberalism and hyper-bipartisanship (via Memeorandum):

Former Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole on Monday wrote conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh defending John McCain as a "mainstream conservative" who had supported the party on critical votes during Dole's time as the Senate Republican leader.

The letter, obtained by CNN from a Republican source close to Dole, includes a voting comparison that suggests McCain's voting record compares favorably to that of the longtime conservative icon Sen. Jesse Helms of North Carolina.

Dole in the letter said he remains neutral in the GOP contest and spoke kindly of all three remaining leading GOP candidates. But the letter comes at a time Limbaugh is trying to rally grassroots conservative support against McCain.

Here's a key quote from Dole's letter:

I was the Republican Leader from January 1985 until I left the Senate voluntarily in June 1996. I worked closely with Senator McCain when he came to the Senate in 1987 until I departed. I cannot recall a single instance when he did not support the Party on critical votes.

Dole goes on to urge Limbaugh to get with the program:

Whoever wins the Republican nomination will need your enthusiastic support. Two terms for the Clintons are enough.

That "whoever" is more than likely McCain, the way things are shaking out around the country.

While I'm talking about Bob Dole, let me relay the concerns of one of my commenters, JSF, who asks:

My only worry with Mccain is that their will be a replay of the 1996 election.

Can you address it?

Thanks and Good luck for your guy tommorow!

I gave a quick response in the comments to my earlier post, "Neoconservatives for McCain":

JSF: Long story short: Bill Clinton!!

Actually, no incumbent on the ballot makes this a whole different ballgame. The Dole-is-McCain comparison is emotional and apolitical.

Don't believe it for a second.

To elaborate the point: Bill Clinton in 1996 prevailed over the GOP Congress on fiscal policy, where he was able to portray the Republican majority as threatening Medicare, Medicaid, education, and the environment.

The Comeback Kid had successfully shifted the media spin to GOP recalcitrance and hubris.

Not only that, changes in the campaign finance system - the major party nominees will likely forgo public financing - will make this year's election much more competitive than 1996.

Dole was broke after the 1996 GOP primary battle, and was unable to run television advertising until after the convention, which left him vulnerable to Clinton, who had started advertising as early as summer 1995, and had been able to use DNC soft-money media buys throughout the summer of the general election year.

In addition, Dole appeared old and frail on the campaign trail - falling down at one campaign event - and frequently absent-minded.

McCain, on the other hand, is as vigorous as any candidate in the 2008 race (despite the fact that if he wins in November he'll be the oldest candidate elected to a first term in the Oval Office).

The Dole-McCain comparison will likely be heard with increasing frequency in the weeks ahead, as disgruntled base conservatives continue to resist the Arizona Senator, stabbing him in the back for his compromises and so-called bipartisan apostasy.

In any case, Dole's a good man and a true patriot. Very few Americans are in a better position to comment on John McCain's qualifications for the presidency.

Super Tuesday May Be Truly Super!

Today's Wall Street Journal provides an excellent overview of tomorrow's Super Tuesday elections around the country:

On the eve of tomorrow's near-national contest for each party's presidential nominee, Democrat Hillary Clinton has lost much of her longtime polling lead over Barack Obama both nationally and in grand prize California, while Republican John McCain has surged ahead for a potentially decisive edge.

Tomorrow's votes could crown Sen. McCain, the Arizona senator, his party's presumptive nominee. The Democrats' battle more likely will grind on, since their party rules award convention delegates proportionate to candidates' votes in each state rather than giving them all to the winner.

Sen. Obama, of Illinois, and Sen. Clinton, of New York, could battle to a draw. But many Democratic activists say Sen. Obama stands to gain momentum, given his advantage in states voting after tomorrow, his campaign's financial strength and his ability to withstand the Clinton machine. That could matter to the party's "super delegates" -- uncommitted Democratic party leaders in each state who aren't up for grabs in the nomination contests but who could ultimately help determine the winner.

Sen. McCain now has a 2-to-1 lead nationally over chief rival Mitt Romney, according to new polls from Gallup, the Pew Research Center and the Washington Post-ABC News. On the Democratic side, they show Sen. Obama has shaved Sen. Clinton's once-formidable national advantage to single digits.

Such polls are hardly predictive, as shown last month when no major surveys foresaw Sen. Clinton's victory in New Hampshire's primary. Then, as now, state and national polls show a large number of undecided voters in both parties, making predictions dicey.

Last month, when the candidates were campaigning in one state at a time, national polls were meaningless for anticipating what voters in New Hampshire or Iowa thought. But with nearly half the states voting tomorrow, national polls can provide a snapshot of the electorate.

The number, size and coast-to-coast range of states voting on "Super Tuesday" makes tomorrow unprecedented in the history of the presidential-nominating process. Primaries or caucuses will be held in 24 states, compared with 10 states on the biggest voting day in 2004. Both parties have votes in 19 states, while Democrats caucus in three more and Republicans in two. Just over half of Democrats' 3,253 pledged delegates are at stake, and 41% of Republicans' 2,380 total.

The battlefield is bigger than it has been for the November general election in recent decades. The general-election campaigns have come down to a dozen or so competitive battleground states, since the rest tend to favor one party or the other. In tomorrow's intra-party contests, every state counts as the major candidates seek more delegates. With just days to campaign, and the cost of advertising, the candidates' stamina and campaign budgets are being tested.

"There's never been anything like it," says Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, who hasn't committed to either candidate. "And there's the sheer economics of it, of how campaigns approach their deployment."

The pileup is a consequence of other states' frustration with the influence of the geographically balanced foursome -- Iowa and New Hampshire, and, more recently, South Carolina and Nevada -- whose early-voting status is blessed by party rules. The others over the past year rushed to reschedule their primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5, the earliest date that both parties allow. But the crush blunted the influence sought by the states, which hoped to get candidates to pay attention to their particular issues in return for votes.

California is the exception. Its huge delegate total -- 370 for Democrats, or about 18% of the number of delegates needed to win the nomination, and 173 for Republicans, or just under 15% -- makes the Golden State truly golden in the nominating race for the first time in three decades.

The Field Poll, a prominent California poll, yesterday had Sen. Clinton, who formerly had a huge lead, in a 36%-to-34% statistical dead heat with Sen. Obama. Sen. McCain has an eight-point edge over his next closest competitor, Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Significantly, the poll has Sen. McCain statistically tied with Sen. Clinton in a hypothetical matchup, suggesting Democrats' lock on the state and its 55 electoral votes -- critical to their hopes for the White House -- could be picked. Sen. Obama bests Sen. McCain in a hypothetical face-off by seven percentage points.

Since tomorrow's state contests are party affairs, the candidates are stumping in places their party nominees rarely do for general elections. For example, Sen. McCain ended yesterday in heavily Democratic Massachusetts -- showing strength in former Gov. Romney's home state -- while Sen. Obama Saturday drew an estimated 13,000 to a rally in overwhelmingly Republican Idaho.

In a year in which Democrats have enthusiasm on their side against a Republican Party demoralized by an unpopular president and the war in Iraq, the Obama campaign argues that his appeal to new voters among the young, minorities and independents could put states in play for Democrats that rarely are, including Southern states such as Georgia and Alabama where black voters are a significant share of the electorate. The Clinton campaign counters that she is drawing new female voters.

The vastness of the playing field has spawned new tactics. Sen. Clinton tonight hosts a national "town hall" discussion to be broadcast on the Internet and cable TV. Sen. Obama, exploiting his huge financial edge, has spent $11 million on 17 Super Tuesday states and six more states voting in coming weeks, including $250,000 for last night's Super Bowl, according to the campaign. The Republicans are too financially strapped to run many national ads, even the resurgent Sen. McCain; Mr. Romney is digging deeper into his personal wealth.

Sens. Clinton and Obama remain from what began as a nine-person Democratic race. Four of the original 10 Republicans survive, but Sen. McCain's chief rival is Mr. Romney. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has been siphoning conservatives' votes from Mr. Romney. Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the antiwar libertarian, has a small following, though Republicans say he could win tomorrow's caucuses in Alaska.

The article also notes that things are more settled on the Republican side. Some GOP insiders doubt Romney can stem the McCain campaign's momentum.

See more election analysis at Gallup, Memeorandum, and Real Clear Politics.

McCain Courts a Wary GOP

Now the GOP frontrunner, John McCain's working hard to come in from the outside edges of the Republican Party. The New York Times has the story:

He says he is not enough of a masochist to listen to Rush Limbaugh. He jokes at a Republican dinner about a looming foreign policy crisis: “I have a four-hour speech on the North Korean nuclear buildup that I know you’ve been waiting for.” And he still treats the media as his No. 1 constituency, plying them with nonstop talk and stories, like one about a date from his Navy days who cleaned her nails with a switchblade.

But now the money is rolling in, more than $7 million in January alone. The candidate jets around the country on a White House-like charter with security, baggage handlers and flowing food and drink. He is reveling in big-time Republican endorsements that may soon include, he hopes, support from the National Rifle Association.

Senator John McCain, Republican renegade, is making a head-spinning transition, seeking to win over the Republican establishment and harness all that comes with it. After winning the New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida primaries, a candidate whose campaign once consisted of a handful of unpaid aides suddenly has a shot on Tuesday at becoming the de facto leader of a party he has often defied and exasperated.

But in enveloping himself in the Republican cloak, Mr. McCain, his aides acknowledge, risks the outsider status that appeals to the independents and Democrats he might need to win in November.

Mr. McCain learned that the hard way: The maverick who ran against George W. Bush in 2000 headed into the 2008 race with all the expensive accouterments of the front-runner, only to lose some of his political identity when he embraced evangelicals and the Republican orthodoxy of tax cuts, not to mention an unpopular war. By last summer Mr. McCain’s campaign had all but collapsed and he was flying into New Hampshire alone to meet with small clutches of voters.

Now his goal is to stand with a foot on each side of the divide. He wants to maintain his role as an independent-minded candidate who offers endless access to reporters and “straight talk” to voters in intimate settings. But at the same time, he must mend the deep rifts within his own party, convince wary conservatives that he can be counted on when it comes to issues like judicial appointments and tax cuts, and run a national campaign aimed not just at the White House but at helping his party in Congress.

This is the big question, then: If McCain locks up the nomination with a sweep tomorrow, can the Arizona Senator win over the party's deep conservative foot soldiers (see here and here, for example)?

I've written extensively about this, for example, in my entry "What Conservative Crackup?"

See also some other posts on the fracturing GOP coalition, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

Photo Credit: New York Times

********

UPDATE: Elaine from Elaine's Place passed along this piece from the Washington Post, "GOP Senators Reassess Views About McCain":

John McCain once testified under oath that a Senate colleague inappropriately used tobacco corporation donations to sway votes on legislation. He cursed out another colleague in front of 20 senators and staff members, questioning the senator's grip on immigration legislation. And, on the Senate floor, McCain (R-Ariz.) accused another colleague of "egregious behavior" for helping a defense contractor in a move he said resembled "corporate scandals."

And those were just the Republicans.

In a chamber once known for cordiality if not outright gentility, McCain has battled his fellow senators for more than two decades in a fashion that has been forceful and sometimes personal. Now, with the conservative maverick on the brink of securing his party's presidential nomination, McCain's Republican colleagues are grappling with the idea of him at the top of their ticket.

"There would be a lot of people who would have to recalibrate their attitudes toward John," said Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah), a supporter of Mitt Romney's who has clashed with McCain.

Many Senate Republicans, even those who have jousted with McCain in the past, say their reassessment is underway. Sensing the increasing likelihood that he will be the nominee, GOP senators who have publicly fought with him are emphasizing his war-hero background and playing down past confrontations.

"I forgive him for whatever disagreements he has had with me. We can disagree on things, but I have great admiration for him," said Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), a senior member of the Appropriations Committee who has often argued with McCain over government spending.

But others have outright rejected the idea of a McCain nomination and presidency, warning that his tirades suggest a temperament unfit for the Oval Office.

"The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine," Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.), also a senior member of the Appropriations panel, told the Boston Globe recently. "He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper and he worries me."

A former colleague says McCain's abrasive nature would, at minimum, make his relations with Republicans on Capitol Hill uneasy if he were to become president. McCain could find himself the victim of Republicans who will not go the extra mile for him on legislative issues because of past grievances.

"John was very rough in the sandbox," said former senator Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), who is outspoken in his opposition to McCain's candidacy. "Everybody has a McCain story. If you work in the Senate for a while, you have a McCain story. . . . He hasn't built up a lot of goodwill."

Santorum was a fierce advocate for the GOP's social conservative wing -- a group particularly hostile to McCain because of his apostasy on immigration and same-sex marriage -- while Cochran is considered one of the more genteel senators. Both men back Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, for president.

To McCain's allies, his fiery personality is part of the "Straight Talk" lore, and a positive quality in a passionate fighter who will tell you to your face how much he dislikes an idea.

"When he's arguing about something he believes in, he's arguing about it," said Mark Salter, a top aide to McCain. "It's an admirable trait, the capacity to be outraged."

Voters have also expressed admiration for McCain's tough side, giving him higher marks on tough and tested leadership traits than any other candidate in the race.

The GOP's Anti-Romney Movement

While the far-right blogosphere continues to hope and pray that Mitt Romney can stop frontrunner John McCain's momentum in tomorrow's Super Tuesday primaries, there's actually a bit of an "I hate Romney" movement brewing in the Republican establishment.

Ana Marie Cox has the story:

Last summer, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani took time out of a GOP debate to defend John McCain: "I happen to be a very big admirer of Senator McCain and I can tell you quite honestly that if I weren't running for President I would be here supporting him." Pundits speculated that the praise was simply a kind word for the man whose campaign had recently exploded, plagued by debt and defections. Privately, McCain advisers wondered if Giuliani was playing nice in order to secure McCain's endorsement after he dropped out of the race.

But this week it was Giuliani who dropped out of the race and endorsed McCain, praising him as an "American hero."

The endorsement was a reflection of the authentic respect McCain and Giuliani have for each other. But that's not all the two candidates share. The endorsement deal was solidifed when both campaigns stayed at the Deerfield Hilton in Florida, following the Republican debate in Boca Raton on January 24. The two campaigns' staff mingled easily over drinks. Acknowledging that his candidate was not likely to survive a defeat in Florida, a Giuliani aide approached one of the McCain senior staffers. Come Wednesday, he said, "Just tell us what want us to do — we've got to stop him."

"Him," of course, is Mitt Romney, the candidate who seems to be uniting his Republican rivals almost as much as Hillary Clinton. "The degree to which campaigns' personal dislike for Mitt Romney has played a part in this campaign cannot be underestimated," says an adviser to one of those rival campaigns. While sharp words have been exchanged between practically every Republican candidate at one point or another on the campaign trail, the aversion to Romney seems to go beyond mere policy disagreements. It's also a suspicion of what they see is his hypocrisy and essential phoniness — what one former staffer for Fred Thompson called Romney's "wholesale reinvention."

The Romney campaign doesn't pretend the sour attitude toward its candidate doesn't exist. But chief counselor Ben Ginsberg insists— echoing one of the campaign's main themes — the attitude stems largely from the fact that Romney is "the outsider candidate. He's not from Washington and he's going to change Washington. He's not part of their club."

At times, this apparent rancor among the other candidates toward Romney has seemed like a schoolyard pact — for example, in the many snarky comments aimed at Romney during the Republican debate on Jan. 5, just before the New Hampshire primary. The campaigns have denied there's any political collusion going on; they insist all of them simply feel the same way about Romney.

Meanwhile, signaling the final stages of desperation among the Rush-bot anti-McCain alliance on the far-right, Mark Levin - Limbaugh's NRO hatchet man - is now questioning McCain's electability in the general election.

In attacking McCain, the bulk of NRO's contributors have pushed Romney as the conservative alternative.

Even Ted Kennedy would have a laugh at that:

Perhaps the conservative base will show some muscle in tomorrow's primaries, although things aren't looking all that good for the former Massachusetts Governor.

Neoconservatives for McCain

I've been leading the neoconservative charge for John McCain over here for the last few weeks. With the exception of Victor David Hanson, and some over at the Weekly Standard, few genuine neocons have jumped into the arena to defend the Arizona Senator from the far-right wing's intemperate attacks.

But over at this morning's New York Times, Willam Kristol - arch-neoconservative and scourge of the antiwar left - has laid down a warning to the Malkin-tents and Rush-bots on the ideological margins: get on board the Straight Talk Express or risk irrelevancy:

This is an important moment for the conservative movement. Not because conservatives have some sort of obligation to fall in behind John McCain. They don’t. Those conservatives who can’t abide McCain are free to rally around Mitt Romney. And if McCain does prevail for the nomination, conservatives are free to sit out the election.

But I’d say this to them: When the primaries are over, if McCain has won the day, don’t sulk and don’t sit it out. Don’t pretend there’s no difference between a candidate who’s committed to winning in Iraq and a Democratic nominee who embraces defeat. Don’t tell us that it doesn’t matter if the next president voted to confirm John Roberts and Samuel Alito for the Supreme Court, or opposed them. Don’t close your eyes to the difference between pro-life and pro-choice, or between resistance to big government and the embrace of it.

And don’t treat 2008 as a throwaway election. If a Democrat wins the presidency, he or she will almost certainly have a Democratic Congress to work with. That Congress will not impede a course of dishonorable retreat abroad. It won’t balk at liberal Supreme Court nominees at home. It won’t save the economy from tax hikes.

If, by contrast, McCain wins the presidency — and all the polls suggest he’d be the best G.O.P. bet to do so — he’ll be able to shape a strong American foreign policy, nominate sound justices and fight for parts of the conservative domestic agenda.

One might add a special reason that conservatives — and the nation — owe John McCain at least a respectful hearing. Only a year ago, we were headed toward defeat in Iraq. Without McCain’s public advocacy and private lobbying, President Bush might not have reversed strategy and announced the surge of troops in January 2007. Without McCain’s vigorous leadership, support for the surge in Congress would not have been sustained in the first few months of 2007. So: No McCain, no surge. No surge, failure in Iraq, a terrible setback for America — and, as it happens, no chance for a G.O.P. victory in 2008.

Some conservatives can close their eyes to all this. They can choose to stand aside from history while having a temper tantrum. But they should consider that the American people might then choose not to invite them back into a position of responsibility for quite a while to come.

Others speaking up this morning include Dr. Sanity and Neo-neocon.

But see also Wordsmith's awesome post on McCain and defense of free speech

Here's a few other entries in the rising pro-McCain chorus (neocon and near-neocon, the lot of 'em): The Anchoress, Sister Toldjah, and My Vast Right Wing Conspiracy.

I'll have updates, as more conservatives of all stripes get on board the Straight Talk.

But, check my earlier entry, "What Conservative Crackup?"

Don't forget the required reading on McCain Derangement Syndrome, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

Hat tip: Memeorandum.

Retail Powerhouse: McCain is Consummate Campaigner

Say what you will about John McCain, the man's a tremendously energetic campaigner.

The Arizona Senator seems to absorb the energy of a crowd, and he never flinches from engaging his audience. Today's Los Angeles Times has more:

John McCain was in his element: a crowded town-hall meeting in an open-air Fort Myers, Fla., seafood restaurant. He strolled from one side of the room to the other with a microphone in one hand, jabbing his finger in the air as he called for honorable victory in Iraq and better veterans healthcare.

When a heckler shouted "4,000 American dead!" and "Bring them home!" McCain paused and asked him to wait his turn. "We all know America is divided by this war, as this gentleman is here, and we're frustrated and saddened by it," he said calmly. When it came time for questions, McCain handed his heckler the microphone to ask the first one.

The moment wasn't just vintage McCain. The exchange convinced Charles Matthews of North Fort Myers to vote for the Arizona senator instead of Mitt Romney.

McCain believes town-hall meetings are a major reason he is the leading Republican candidate for president. "Let's face it," he told reporters recently. "That's why I succeeded in New Hampshire and South Carolina."

But even the candidate admits that the format is best suited to the single-state campaigns he has run up until now. On McCain's campaign bus last week, advisor Steve Schmidt framed the reality: "You can't appear one-on-one in front of 100 million people," he told McCain and a clutch of reporters.

As he covered nearly 1,500 miles Saturday, touching down for rallies in three states where he spoke for about 15 minutes each, McCain confessed nostalgia for his old style of campaigning.

"I miss the town-hall meeting, and we'll try to have more of them as we go through this campaign," he told reporters in Nashville. "People deserve to have an opportunity to not only see my message but ask [me] questions and have the dialogue that I think is important."

Looking ahead to Tuesday, when voters in 21 Republican state primaries and caucuses will cast ballots, the campaign is devoting far more of McCain's time to one-on-one interviews, abbreviated rallies and television-friendly events. McCain insists on keeping the town halls, but he and his aides appear to have negotiated a middle ground: fewer of them, mixed with round-table events and speeches in which he succinctly hones his message.

"He's going to do it the way he wants, and the campaign is going to have to accommodate him," said longtime advisor Mark Salter.

Kathleen Hall Jamieson, professor of communication at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania, said that one of McCain's great challenges will be translating the authenticity he conveys in those exchanges into sound bites for the evening news.

"The immediate audience sees that he engages people of a different point of view, he doesn't patronize them, he tries to persuade them and listens to what they have to say. That's very impressive," Jamieson said. "The national audience rarely gets to see that."
She added that for McCain, who is 71, the town-hall format also negates questions about his age because he moves briskly from topic to topic. In rallies and speeches, she said, he sometimes seems bored. "He is less effective when speaking to a mass audience," Jamieson said.

I've often thought that McCain's stilted behind a podium, but perhaps he can take the town-hall format to new heights as a straight-talk commander-in-chief.

Daniel Henninger provides an awesome example of McCain's ability to rouse a crowd, at the Wall Street Journal:

When Mr. McCain took the stage in Sun City, the applause was polite. When he finished, he got a standing ovation. He has been at this game a long time, and his ability to sense and ride the emotional flow of an audience is astonishing.

It discomfits some, including me, that Mr. McCain seems like a live, capped volcano. But in front of an audience like this, and before a younger group two days later at the Tampa Convention Center, he stood with that tight, little upper body of coiled electricity and plugged his message of honor, commitment and threat straight into the guts of his listeners.

Rudy Giuliani's antiterror message has been strong and credible, but it was almost an abstraction compared to the meat and potatoes of the McCain presentation.

He asks veterans to stand. About 70 men rise, to great applause. He's talking about the "transcendent threat of radical Islamic extremism" and from there to homicidal doctors in Scotland and arrests in Germany. "Al Qaeda is on the run, but they're not defeated!" He wraps himself, justifiably, in the "Petraeus" surge. And then, "My friends, doesn't the president deserve credit that there hasn't been another attack on the U.S.?" They are going nuts. It wasn't demagogic. He does it with tone and timing. You can almost see his eyes calibrating.

Retail politics still matter, and in an era of terror, war and loss of national self-esteem, John McCain is a retail politics powerhouse.

I'm watching McCain on cable news right now. He's stumping on Iraq, clarifying the differences between his campaign and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama's.

"If you remember one thing, my friends," McCain implores, "al Qaeda is on the run, but not defeated...as president I will listen to our commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, and we will never surrender!"

That's a message for November.

Photo: CBS News

Pew Survey Finds McCain Leading Nationwide

I'm seeing some interesting polling trends this morning.

In a new Pew Center survey, John McCain wins the support of Republicans across the board:

McCain holds a substantial lead among all segments of the Republican electorate, with the sole exception of white evangelical Protestants. Huckabee equals McCain's support among these voters (34% each). McCain now holds a 37% to 26% lead over Romney among conservative Republican voters, and wins the support of a majority (52%) of moderate and liberal Republican voters.

While McCain's earlier victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina were assisted by his strong backing from independent voters, McCain's ability to win in Florida's "closed" Republican primary is reflected in the current national figures. He continues to hold a commanding lead among independents who "lean" toward the Republican Party, but also has opened a 15-point lead over Romney (38% to 23%) among those who consider themselves Republicans.

Besides leading in the horserace, McCain is the candidate most likely to unite the Republican base. McCain is the only candidate of the three who is viewed favorably by both Huckabee's supporters (61%) and Romney's supporters (59%). In contrast, Huckabee's backers are divided in their view of Romney (41% unfavorable vs. 37% unfavorable). And Romney's supporters are equally ambivalent about Huckabee (44% favorable vs. 39% unfavorable).

Also, today's Washington Post poll has additional data on McCain's leading position as the most electable Republican in the race.

Fully two-thirds of Republican respondents in the Post's poll say McCain "has the best of getting elected president."

Also, in the general election, McCain leads Hillary Clinton by three percentage points, although Barack Obama tops McCain among likely voters. Both Hillary Clinton and Obama lead Romney by double-digits in likely general election matchups.

McCain Hammered Romney on Olympic Pork Barrel

I'm watching John McCain campaigning on cable right now. He's railing against earmarks and he's pledging the congressional pork barrel extravaganza will end under his administration.

This could be more bluster than beef, although McCain's generally unassailable as a tough-on-spending conservative.

This morning's Los Angeles Times reports, for example, indicates that McCain was hammering Mitt Romney in 2000 for his lobbying in favor of federal subsidies for the Salt Lake City Olympics:

On Sept. 19, 2000, John McCain rose in the Senate to rail against what he called the "staggering" sums that the federal government planned to spend to help Salt Lake City stage the 2002 Winter Olympics.

"The American taxpayer is being shaken down to the tune of nearly a billion and a half dollars," McCain said.

The Arizona Republican vowed to "do everything in my power" to delay or kill "this pork-barrel spending" and to end the "fiscal abuse" related to the Olympics. "This is preposterous and it must stop," he said.

Mitt Romney, who headed the Olympics, counseled calm when reporters from Utah's Deseret Morning News reached him in Sydney, Australia. Romney challenged McCain's arithmetic, arguing that taxpayers would provide only $250 million. In any case, he asserted that he already had obtained backing in Congress.

"I'm expecting the funding we need to host the Games," he said. "I'm quite confident."

The clash over Olympics spending, which dragged on for two years, helps explain some of the acrimony that now characterizes the race between the two front-runners for the Republican presidential nomination. The dispute provided an early preview of the fissures that still divide McCain and Romney as they face what may be decisive contests Tuesday.

Read the whole thing.

The Times piece notes that McCain, as Chair of the Senate Commerce Committee, never held hearings on Romney's lobbying for Olympic largesse.

Nevertheless, the article provides an excellent case of how Romney has exaggerated his record as an innovative leader.

The truth is the Salt Lake City Olympics were underwritten by American taxpayer dollars.

Sign of Desperation? Romney Says Far-Right Will Stop McCain

This is just in, from CNN: "Romney Predicts Conservatives Will Stop McCain":

Mitt Romney predicted Sunday his party's conservative base will rally behind him on Super Tuesday in order to prevent John McCain from winning the Republican nomination.

"What I have to do is continue to see what's been happening the last few days, specifically that is conservatives across the country are saying, 'whoa, we have to get behind Mitt Romney,'" he said on CNN's Late Edition.

"You've got people like Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham and the list goes on and on and on — Hugh Hewitt, Lars Larson — conservative voices, both from radio and from publications, are saying, 'you know what, we've got to get behind Mitt Romney,'" he continued. "We really can't afford John McCain as the nominee of our party."

Following McCain's victory in Florida Tuesday, some prominent conservatives have expressed dismay with the prospect of the Arizona senator capturing the Republican nomination. On Wednesday, talk-radio host Rush Limbaugh said McCain's rise was the product of a 'fractured' conservative base and an "uninspiring" GOP presidential field.

"He is not the choice of conservatives, as opposed to the choice of the Republican establishment — and that distinction is key," Limbaugh said. "The Republican establishment, which has long sought to rid the party of conservative influence since Reagan, is feeling a victory today as well as our friends in the media."

Meanwhile, conservative commentator Ann Coulter said Thursday she would support Hillary Clinton over McCain.

"If you are looking at substance rather than if there is an R or a D after his name, manifestly, if he's our candidate, than Hillary is going to be our girl, because she's more conservative than he is," Coulter said. "I think she would be stronger on the war on terrorism."

But McCain also picked up support from some key conservatives this week, such as former Solicitor General Ted Olson and Georgia Sens. Johnny Isaacson and Saxby Chambliss, and on CBS Face the Nation Sunday the Arizona senator said, "I have a strong conservative record that I'm proud to run on."

I'm just not convinced that the Malkin-tents and Rush-bots can stop McCain. They've been hammering him for weeks, and the Arizona Senator's campaign has just picked up steam.

Indeed, McCain is quoted today,saying "I assume that I will get the nomination of the party."

Momentum's a powerful thing, and McCain's got it.

The Emerging Conservative Minority

utAmerican politics really is about finding the happy middle on the ideological spectrum. Candidates of both parties are forced to compete for the great mass of moderate voters who reside along the median point of the political continuum.

In 5 of the last 7 presidential elections, the Republican Party's been best able to capture this "vital center" of the American political universe. In the process, the GOP has forged a historic voting coalition unifying conservatives of various stripes - from social traditionalists to no-tax absolutists to national security neocons.

This year's primary season, as everyone knows, has split the Republicans like no other time in recent decades. Consequently, we're seeing more talk among both rank-and-file conservatives and political pundits on the emergence of a conservative minority in the U.S.

Some evidence of this can be found, informally, with an afternoon's surf around the conservative blogosphere (for a couple of top examples, see here and here).

But I think this comment over at Bloviating Zeppelin is a thoughful perspective on the minority status of deep conservatives in election '08:

I believe we [conservatives] all need to realize up front that, though we'd care to think we are, we are not representative of the general population or even the bulk of the Republican party, if that is your association. And by "we," who do I mean?

I mean you, me, any of my dedicated readers or anyone just dropping by. I mean those who listen to Conservative talk radio, who hit the internet for news stories, who will choose something for a particular political reason, who purposely choose certain venues of communication and media.

I believe it is we who are out of the mainstream - of the bulk of people comprising the Republican Party.

Bloviating Zeppelin offer these comments in justifying conservative defiance against GOP frontrunner John McCain. It's a compelling read.

A social science perspective on the emerging conservative majority can be found in James Joyner's piece at Outside the Beltway:

Perhaps “conservatives” are now a minority, even among Republican primary voters? If so, given that there are virtually no conservatives remaining in the Democratic Party these days and that voters who aren’t aligned with either party are almost by definition non-ideological, that would mean that conservatives are a small minority, indeed, among the American electorate.

Alternatively, perhaps the definition of “conservative” has become so narrow and esoteric that it’s become virtually meaningless?

When Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980 and again in 1984, he did it by putting together a coalition of small government conservatives, social conservatives, and anti-communists. He famously engendered the support of blue collar folks who were dubbed “Reagan Democrats.” Most of that group simply became Reagan Republicans.

Has the country gotten that much less conservative since then?

In some ways, yes. We’re much more tolerant on lifestyle issues, notably the role of women and acceptance of homosexuality, than we were a generation ago. Abortion has now been legal for 35 years, not a mere seven. We’re also much further removed from the days of the military draft, which means fewer of our menfolk have served.

But, fundamentally, we’re the same country we were in 1980. We’re still the most religious country in the developed world and probably the most patriotic. We’re more citified and more homogenized than we were but we still cling to the John Wayne rugged individualist mythos to a large degree.

The conservative majority has become a Conservative minority.

The Conservative Movement has morphed from a handful of intellectual true believers trying to shape the debate into something approaching a civil religion with loyalty tests and a clericy that has the power to excommunicate.

Read the whole thing.

Joyner looks at the opinion data, which is fairly compelling on the facts of conservative minority status.

Yet it's important to remember - as I suggested a bit in the introduction - that Americans historically are moderate in their political orientations. We've always had, even among those on the left, general consensus on enduring principles of individualism, liberty, and markets. (We've never, on the other hand, had mass popular support for extreme parties of the left, a case more characteristic of the European continental democracies in the 20th century.)

The schism we're seeing today, as I have argued, may have long-term consequences for the party system.

It could be that the intense political polarization that has become a buzz phrase of recent years is genuinely erupting to create irreparable fissures in the GOP coalition.

If the conservative base becomes fundamentally irreconciled to a Republican Party seen as disastrously liberal on social policy, immigration, and so forth, the far-right constituency of the party may bolt the coalition never to return.

This is the biggest story of election '08 so far. If Barack Obama wins the nomination on the Democratic side, we'll see some of the most funamental change in the overall party system since the 1960s.

For now though, the best bet for radical ideological change is on the right side of the dial. The implications of the great conserative debate of '08 will have far reaching consequences.

McCain Tops Public Opinion, is Clear GOP Frontrunner

John McCain has consolidated his lead as the national GOP frontrunner heading into Super Tuesday, a new Washington Post poll shows:

McCain leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 48 percent to 24 percent among probable GOP voters as he continues to rapidly consolidate support, particularly among moderates and liberals. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee runs third in the new poll with 16 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) is fourth at 7 percent....

McCain outperforms Romney in the general-election tests because he picks up significantly more support among independents and political moderates. These groups have been crucial to the senator in early-state caucuses and primaries, and his biggest gains in this poll came among them.

Among GOP voters who are politically moderate and liberal, McCain has a whopping 51-point advantage over Romney in the new poll, while conservatives divide 37 percent for McCain, 29 percent for Romney and 19 percent for Huckabee. Moreover, most of McCain's improvement since mid-January is among moderates and liberals; he is up 28 percentage points in this group, while he and Romney have both climbed 12 points among conservatives.

McCain has taken control of the GOP race by picking up mainline Republican supporters as well. Nearly half of self-identified Republicans now support him, up nearly fourfold from December. He appears to have benefited from the decisions by former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.) to quit the race. Both Giuliani, who has endorsed McCain, and Thompson appealed to many of the voters McCain now counts in his camp.

Two-thirds of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents saw McCain as the party's strongest general-election candidate, and about three in five described him as the strongest leader. He also now has a double-digit advantage over Romney on the question of who best represents the core values of the party. On this measure, he is up 14 points from three weeks ago.

While moderates and liberals have coalesced around McCain as the GOP standard-bearer (56 percent said he best reflects party values), conservatives are less than fully convinced. Among those who describe themselves as "very conservative," 34 percent said Romney best embodies GOP values, and 25 percent said McCain.

McCain also leads on all five issue areas tested in the poll, with overwhelming advantages on national security issues (69 percent call him tops on Iraq; 67 percent on terrorism). He has double-digit advantages over Romney on the economy and immigration, and leads both Romney and Huckabee on social issues. About four in 10 Romney supporters said McCain is better on Iraq and terrorism.

For all his advantages, however, McCain does not enjoy the kind of enthusiastic support that Clinton and Obama have among their voters. Thirty-eight percent of his backers said they strongly support him. And among those Republicans who are most closely following the GOP race, he and Romney are running essentially even.

Really?

The authors, Dan Balz and Jon Cohen, must have missed my post, "What Conservative Crackup?"

LOL!!

Actually, the real public opinion action is on the Democratic side, as the poll shows: Barack Obama is essentially running neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton.

See also the San Francisco Chronicle's report on the new Field Poll, showing Barack Obama pulling up even with Hillary Clinton in the Golden State (via Memeorandum).

Campaign Finance Before Super Tuesday

The Monkey Cage has a brief synopsis of the campaign finance situation heading into Super Tuesday:

The Campaign Finance Institute will issue a new report on campaign spending by the presidential candidates very soon, but yesterday it circulated a press release yesterday that covers some of the high points. These data were current as of December 31. Obviously, much has happened since then, but in the words of the press release, there are some good clues here “for those who may be wondering about what will come next.”

* About half of Hillary Clinton’s campaign money came in amounts of $2300 or more. Because those donors had given the legal maximum, Clinton couldn’t go back to them again in January.

* By contrast, Barack Obama had raised only about one-third of his funds from “maxed out” donors. “This clearly suggests that Obama had more room than Clinton to seek additional support from his donors under the law’s contribution limits.”

* Obama raised a “remarkable” 47% of his individual contributions in the fourth quarter from donors who gave unitemized contributions of $200 or less. Only 15% of Clinton’s fourth-quarter contributions came in these small amounts.

* About half of Mitt Romney’s fourth-quarter money came from individuals, half of whom were maxed out; the rest came from Romney himself.

* John McCain was “essentially broke with less than $1 million in cash in hand at the end of the year.” The next CFI report presumably will show a big boost in McCain’s donations, reflecting his emergence as the front-runner in the race for the GOP nomination.

For the full CFI press release, click here.

McCain's compelling journey from financial collapse to GOP frontrunner is relayed in this piece for the Washington Post.

The Conservative Case for McCain

Jeff Jacoby makes the conservative case for McCain, at the Boston Globe:

The conservative case against McCain is clear enough....

The issues that have earned McCain the label of "maverick" - campaign-finance restrictions, global warming, the Bush tax cuts, immigration, judicial filibusters - are precisely what stick in the craw of the GOP conservative base.

But this year, the conservative case for McCain is vastly more compelling.

On the surpassing national-security issues of the day - confronting the threat from radical Islam and winning the war in Iraq - no one is more stalwart. Even McCain's fiercest critics, such as conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, will say so. "The world's bad guys," Hewitt writes, "would never for a moment think he would blink in any showdown, or hesitate to strike back at any enemy with the audacity to try again to cripple the US through terror."

McCain was never an agenda-driven movement conservative, but he "entered public life as a foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution," as he puts it, and on the whole his record has been that of a robust and committed conservative. He is a spending hawk and an enemy of pork and earmarks. He has never voted to increase taxes, and wants the Bush tax cuts made permanent for the best of reasons: "They worked." He is a staunch free-trader and a champion of school choice. He is unabashedly prolife and pro-Second Amendment. He opposes same-sex marriage. He wants entitlements reined in and personal retirement accounts expanded.

McCain's conservatism has usually been more a matter of gut instinct than of a rigorous intellectual worldview, and he has certainly deviated from Republican orthodoxy on some serious issues. For all that, his ratings from conservative watchdog groups have always been high. "Even with all the blemishes," notes National Review, a leading journal on the right (and a backer of Romney), "McCain has a more consistent conservative record than Giuliani or Romney. . . . This is an abiding strength of his candidacy."

As a lifelong conservative, I wish McCain evinced a greater understanding that limited government is indispensable to individual liberty. Yet there is no candidate in either party who so thoroughly embodies the conservatism of American honor and tradition as McCain, nor any with greater moral authority to invoke it. For all his transgressions and backsliding, McCain radiates integrity and steadfastness, and if his heterodox stands have at times been infuriating, they also attest to his resolve. Time and again he has taken an unpopular stand and stuck with it, putting his career on the line when it would have been easier to go along with the crowd.

A perfect conservative he isn't. But he is courageous and steady, a man of character and high standards, a genuine hero. If "the House that Reagan Built" is to be true to its best and highest ideals, it will unite behind John McCain.

Read the whole thing.

Jacoby reminds us that the Reagan standard is nostalgia. Romney's no Reagan; Huckabee's no Reagan; and neither is McCain.

Reagan granted amnesty to millions of illegal aliens. McCain's sworn against it.

See also my previous post, "What Conservative Crackup?"