Wednesday, November 10, 2010
'The World Ahead' at Foreign Affairs
Meanwhile, here's this from James F. Hoge, Jr., "Editor's Note":
Two decades ago, the Soviet empire and its ideological engine, communism, simultaneously died. Thus ended the Cold War, with unexpected suddenness. Looking forward at the time, many observers foresaw a placid future with few challenges to approximate the hot and cold wars that had so scarred the twentieth century. Peace and prosperity were predicted. In fact, peace did not break out. The last decade of the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first century were full of challenges and surprises, including several long and debilitating wars that are not yet over.More at the link.As the post-Cold War world unfolded, Foreign Affairs addressed some of the discernible changes just getting under way. It was an early witness to the rise of Asia, the growth of globalization, and the emergence of economics and environmental issues as primary concerns in international relations. One essay, published in 1993, sounded a much-noted alert that conflict would still be a central concern. It was Samuel Huntington's "The Clash of Civilizations?" which predicted that the fundamental source of conflict would be not ideological or economic but cultural, consisting of clashes "between nations and groups of different civilizations."
Today, unlike 20 years ago, there is widespread recognition of a long list of simmering conflicts, unsettling trends, and mounting global problems. Mindful that the unexpected is always lurking in the future, the contributors to this special issue of Foreign Affairs address a broad range of challenges that are likely to arise in the world ahead. In general, the subjects break down into three categories: the changing balance of power among states and peoples, the urgency of planetary issues, and the role of the United States.
Here are a few of the notes struck by our authors:
- The return of Asia to the world stage will define the era.
- The chasm between the United States and China could widen as their differing interests become more pronounced.
- Emerging powers, even democratic ones, will have separate agendas, making international integration more difficult.
- Cooperative approaches to an array of global issues, such as climate change, will be difficult to accomplish.
- Nonstate actors, ranging from unofficial governing entities to terrorist organizations, will grow, particularly in weak states.
- The United States' influence, diminished by the rise of other states and nonstate actors, will be fatally undercut if the country does not curb its unsustainable reliance on debt.
- Avoiding famine will depend on a vast expansion of Africa's lagging agricultural productivity.
- The resurgence of all the major religions will be marked by post-Western versions of Christianity and a return of religious practice to secular Europe.
- Half the world will experience "fertility implosions," thus leading to shortages of working-age populations, with only sub-Saharan Africa producing a surplus of working-age men.
- The technology revolution, epitomized by the Internet, will empower both people yearning for democracy and repressive tyrants.
- The United States will remain the primary source of clean-energy innovation.
- Those states that best educate their citizens will win the economic competition.
Check back for some commentary on all of this in the days ahead.
Republicans May Yet Have Upper Hand in Senate
On paper, the numbers tell you the Democrats held on to a majority in the Senate last week.I discussed the situation in the Senate in classes yesterday, but I hadn't thought of the high number of Dems running for reelection in 2012. McConnell's a smart cookie.
In reality, things won't be quite that neat. In fact, on some issues the Republicans actually may have a functional majority, given the sentiments likely to prevail among certain Democrats who face the voters in two years.
Here's the situation. After last week's midterm election, the Senate next year will have 51 Democrats, two independents who caucus with the Democrats, and 47 Republicans. (The Republican from Alaska could be either Joe Miller, the tea-party candidate who was the official GOP nominee, or write-in incumbent Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski. It appears Ms. Murkowski got enough votes to stick around, but all her write-in votes haven't been counted yet.)
So, in theory, that means Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid, having survived his own election-day near-death experience, should be able to muster 53 votes if he keeps his troops in line.
But life is never that simple in the Senate and certainly won't be now. Among the Senate Democrats, 23 will face re-election in just two years, and, having just witnessed the drubbing some in their party took at the polls, they likely will be even less willing now to toe the party line. Independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who caucuses with Democrats, often leans rightward, anyway.
More important, among those 23 Democrats who face voters in 2012 are a handful of incumbents from the kind of moderate to conservative states where Democrats took a beating last week: Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Jon Tester of Montana, Jim Webb of Virginia and Claire McCaskill of Missouri. Joe Manchin, who just won a Senate race in West Virginia by separating himself from President Barack Obama and his party's congressional leaders, also faces voters again in two years because he was elected only to fill out an unexpired term.
Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, looks at this field and thinks he may see some votes for his side. He points in particular to his desire to roll back parts of this year's big health bill.
"There are 23 Democrats up in 2012 and only nine Republicans," he said in an interview. "I think there is a widespread belief on the other side of the aisle that [the health bill] was a huge mistake. There could be, who knows, a growing number of Democrats who think that was the wrong thing to do."
More at the link.
Michael Steele, Republican Chairman, May Face Opposition
WASHINGTON — Turning their attention to the 2012 presidential election, Republican leaders are digging in for a battle over control of the Republican National Committee, judging that its role in fund-raising, get-out-the-vote operations and other tasks will be critical to the effort to topple President Obama.
Some senior party officials are maneuvering to put pressure on Michael Steele, the controversial party chairman, not to seek re-election when his term ends in January or, failing that, to encourage a challenger to step forward to take him on.
So far, the effort has been tentative, with Mr. Steele’s most ardent opponents working behind the scenes to persuade an alternative to run against him — fearful that any overt moves will create a backlash in Mr. Steele’s favor among those committee members who tend to view the establishment in Washington with suspicion.
One man leading the effort is a Mississippi Republican Party committeeman, Henry Barbour, who is a nephew of Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi — a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, himself. Governor Barbour is said by people involved in the discussions to be among those eager to see a change at the top the party and recently criticized party fund-raising under Mr. Steele.
Officials close to the presumed new House speaker, Representative John A. Boehner, and the Senate minority leader, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, said that both men would prefer a new chairman, as well, but that they were also resigned to Mr. Steele’s continued leadership should no clear alternative emerge to defeat him.
In an interview Tuesday night, Henry Barbour said, “I like Mike Steele and I’ve worked hard to support him as chairman.” But, he added, “I do think we have to make a change and I have actively talked to some other members in the last week or so and encouraged a few of them to consider running.”
Among those Mr. Barbour has approached is a member of Mr. Steele’s “kitchen cabinet” of advisers, Reince Priebus, who is chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin and who helped manage Mr. Steele’s first election for the chairmanship two years ago.
Several officials involved in the discussions, all of whom requested anonymity to share details of the talks, said Mr. Priebus had recently warned Mr. Steele that a run for re-election could prove difficult this time around, and advised him to consider leaving the chairmanship at time when he could point to big Republican gains nationwide.
But Mr. Priebus has made it clear that he is personally uncomfortable with the idea of challenging Mr. Steele directly for the post, given their friendship.
The effort to woo Mr. Priebus was first reported Tuesday on the Web site of The Washington Post.
WaPo's piece is here: "Republicans Attempt to Recruit Alternative to Michael Steele."
RELATED: "Sarah Palin Rallies GOP at 'Victory 2010' in Anaheim."
BDS Lives: Critics Plan to Move Bush Memoir to 'Crime' Section in Bookstores
When Tony Blair released his memoir earlier this year, a facebook page was created calling for critics of the former prime minister to "Subversively move Tony Blair's memoirs to the crime section in book shops."At last count, the Facebook group had more than 14,000 members. The effort was a way for Blair's critics to protest his role in the war in Iraq. "Make bookshops think twice about where they categorise our generations greatest war criminal," the page says.
Now critics of President George W. Bush are trying to replicate the protest with a Facebook group tied to the release of the former president's memoir "Decision Points" tomorrow. The page has more than 1,000 members so far. "They did this to Tony Blair's book and I think we should do the same here," it says.
Left-leaning websites are promoting the idea and calling on people to post pictures of their efforts online.
Mr. Bush plans to sign copies of the book tomorrow in Dallas, and critics are vowing to protest the event, complaining on a protest-organizing Facebook page that "his unapologetic attitude" about the war in Iraq "is unacceptable."
Yeah, and Code Pink commie Jodie Evans is on the case, "Move W.'s Decision Points to the Crime Section."
This is going to be quite a week for Bush Derangement. See, "This Bid to Rehabilitate Bush Must Be Defeated: He Left a Trail of Destruction."
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
In Indonesia, Obama Continues Outreach to Muslims
At Jakarta Globe, "First Day of Obama's Indonesia Visit Marked by Scattered Protests."
And Bare Naked Islam, "INDONESIA: Radical Muslim Group to Protest Obama Visit."
RELATED: At WaPo, "Obama Heralds Indonesia's Political, Religious Diversity in Latest Outreach to Muslims," and WSJ, "Full Text: Obama's Prepared Remarks in Indonesia."
Decision Points #1 at Amazon.com
Discussing the Iraq surge strategy in 2006, former President George W. Bush notes that during his presidency he read 14 biographies of Abraham Lincoln. The cause of his preoccupation with Lincoln is obvious: The Bush presidency will be remembered as a war presidency. First in Afghanistan after 9/11 and then from 2003 onward in Iraq. The rest will be footnotes.And an interview with Kim Strassel, "Bush Agonistes? Not Quite."
George W. Bush Talks With Matt Lauer
Two years ago he left office with two wars raging and an economy in free fall, an embattled commander in chief with the lowest approval ratings of any modern president. Now Mr. Bush is offering himself up as a chatty president emeritus, sometimes defiant and other times cheerful, on a media blitz to promote his memoir, “Decision Points.”
It was a fascinating, at times disarming, performance, but also a confusing one: a plea for understanding from a president who says he doesn’t give a fig about popularity. At one point, Mr. Bush boasted that when an acquaintance told him his approval ratings were up, he retorted, “Who cares?”
In the hourlong NBC News special, Mr. Bush talked about himself with the blend of candor and self-serving boilerplate that almost all book-promoting celebrities master on a publicity tour.
Democratic House Minority Meltdown
At NYT, "No. 2 House Democrat Will Try to Retain Post":
Representative Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland, the No. 2 Democrat in the House, said Monday that he would try to hold on to that position when his party slips into the minority next year as the leadership of House Democrats remained in turmoil one week after devastating election losses.More here.
The decision by Mr. Hoyer, who has served as majority leader the past four years, sets up a possible fight with Representative James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, currently the No. 3 Democrat, who said on Monday that he was still pursuing the No. 2 position as well.
At the same time, some Democrats continued to publicly question the decision of Speaker Nancy Pelosi to try to remain as party leader in the new Congress though no lawmaker has stepped forward to challenge her. Both parties are to hold internal elections next week when Congress returns for a lame-duck session.
In a letter to his colleagues, Mr. Hoyer, who spent the weekend canvassing his fellow Democrats as he explored a run for minority whip, said he could provide the experience necessary to help Democrats try to recapture the House in 2012.
“As Democratic whip, I will hit the ground running, delivering our message across the country, speaking out on the House floor against efforts to undermine the health and security of the middle class, building support for our party among all Americans and fighting the special interest money that overwhelmed many of our colleagues,” he wrote.
Mr. Clyburn and Mr. Hoyer met Monday, but aides would not divulge any details about their talks. Mr. Hoyer leads in public endorsements.
RELATED: "Moderate Dems Line Up in Opposition to Pelosi's Bid for Minority Leader," and "FOX Exclusive: Defeated Democrats Pen Letter to Implore Pelosi to Step Aside."
Obama on '60 Minutes' — 'Republicans Were Able to Paint My Governing Philosophy as a Classic Traditional Big Gov't Liberal'
Prime Minister Stephen Harper Warns of Rise of Anti-Semitism
Prime Minister Stephen Harper told an international group of parliamentarians in Ottawa to discuss anti-Semitism that he will continue to be a vocal supporter of Israel even if it costs Canada international honours like a seat on the UN Security Council.RTWT. (And check the link above for video of Prime Minister Harper.)
The conference of the Inter-Parliamentary Coalition for Combatting Anti-Semitism – a gathering of politicians from more than 40 countries – is largely aimed at exposing what its members say is the “new anti-Semitism,” which is defined as excessive and unjust criticism of the state of Israel.
While the substance of anti-Semitism is as crude as ever, Mr. Harper said, its method is now more sophisticated.
“Harnessing disparate anti-American, anti-Semitic and anti-Western ideologies, it targets the Jewish people by targetting the Jewish homeland, Israel, as the source of injustice and conflict in the world and uses, perversely, the language of human rights to do so,” the Prime Minister said. “We must be relentless in exposing this new anti-Semitism for what it is.”
That prompted loud applause from conference participants.
“Israel, like any country, may be subjected to fair criticism,” Mr. Harper said, pointing out that Israel subjects itself to such criticism as part of a healthy democratic debate.
“But when Israel, the only country in the world whose very existence is under attack, is consistently and conspicuously singled out for condemnation, I believe we are morally obligated to take a stand,” he said.
U.S. Party Politics Mask Real Battle Lines
A favourite theme of American business and political elites at the moment is that authoritarian regimes – i.e. China – may be better at making hard, long-term economic decisions than are querulous democracies – i.e. the United States. There is plenty of academic research to suggest that, over the long term, this view is wrong. But in the shorter term, this week in fact, the U.S. itself offered a case study of this scary theory.More at the link.
Consider: On Tuesday, Americans swung sharply to the right, giving their Democratic President a shellacking and handing control of the House of Representatives to the Republicans. The country’s most powerful elected Republican, John Boehner, who will be the new Speaker, immediately declared it was a vote for “cutting spending” and “smaller, less costly government.” Most analysts, including happy ones on Wall Street (who are often most cheerful when the country’s elected officials are least active), decided it was a vote for gridlock, thanks to the Democrats’ continued control of both the Senate and the White House.
Then, on Wednesday, the most powerful unelected Republican, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, swooped in with massive government action, announcing a plan to pump $600-billion (U.S.) into the economy over the next two years. That is not much smaller than two of the big government interventions that earned the Democrats their shellacking – the $700-billion TARP program (never mind the pesky fact that it was actually a Republican Secretary of the Treasury who invented it) and the $787-billion stimulus.
The timing of the Fed’s move underlined one of the most important takeaways from the midterm election campaign. Watch cable news or surf the Web and you are likely to conclude that the United States is a deeply divided nation, split between fiercely partisan hardliners on the left and on the right. That’s one version of the political battle. But another one is that the division isn’t between liberals and conservatives, it’s between the hoi polloi and the elite.
The split between the mandarins and the public explains how you get a popular vote for government inaction the day before the bipartisan, Republican-led technocrats at the Fed, with only one dissenting vote, endorse massive government intervention. The economic battle today isn’t just between the Republicans and the Democrats, it is between the technocrats and the populists – and in the latter contest, the Bush-nominee who runs the Fed probably has more in common with the beaten-up Democratic President than he does with the victorious leaders of his own party.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Bad News for Liberals Leftists May Be Good News for a Liberal Leftist Magazine
As conservatives continue to sort out the lessons from the 2010 elections, one enduring ideological challenge remains clear: the need to appropriately and consistently identify so-called liberals for what the are, radical left-wing ideologues and statists.
We can see just large how the challenge remains at today's New York Times, "Bad News for Liberals May Be Good News for a Liberal Magazine." I've obviously altered the title of this blog entry to better reflect what the Times is attempting to say. Basically, and fair enough, Katrina vanden Heuvel, the editor and publisher of The Nation, sees the current resurgence of right-wing politics as providing a burst of life-saving blood to her far left-wing organ:
No weekly magazine tracked by the Media Industry Newsletter has lost more pages of advertising this year than The Nation.More at the link.
As of Nov. 8, ad pages were down 30 percent compared with last year’s figures, remarkable even though advertising accounts for only a 10th of the revenue. Traffic to TheNation.com has also declined recently. And since 2008, the magazine has run an operating deficit of about $500,000 a year.
Despite all the gloom, could last week’s Democratic pummeling actually have a silver lining for The Nation, once home to writers like Henry James, Ezra Pound, Kurt Vonnegut Jr. and even Yeats? Katrina vanden Heuvel, the magazine’s editor and publisher, did not have to think long about that question.
“If you can’t expose the hypocrisy of this new group of Republicans, then we’re not doing our job. And I mean that,” she said in an interview from her office on election night as she sipped a glass of Champagne, defiant as Democratic losses piled up and the mood around her darkened.
“I mean you’ve got a lot to work with,” she said. “You’ve got a Tea Party caucus in the Senate, a Tea Party caucus in the House. So I think you have a lot of rich material.”
If history is any guide, Ms. vanden Heuvel could be proved right.
The Bush years were good — very good — to The Nation. After operating in the red almost every year since it was founded by abolitionists in 1865, the magazine turned a profit in 2003.
Interestingly, The Nation's main competitors are blogs like Daily Kos and online news aggregators like Huffington Post. And like The Nation, both of these are neo-socialist outlets, but with more modern technological coolness. And also like The Nation, both Kos and Puff Ho are treated as respectable media organs while effectively functioning as neo-socialist appendages to the Democrat Party in Washington.
All of these folks are on the extreme left of the spectrum, and, along with the New York Times itself, they all advance a progressive and statist agenda that reaches from the tops of the elite media shops in Manhattan to the lowest elementary school classrooms in the inner cities. We've seen it over and over. And conservatives need to keep pushing back: Say no to the media lies of neo-socialist press organs as mainstream "liberal" institutions.
Los Angeles Times Slurs Geert Wilders Case as 'Hate Trial' — Hit Piece Cites 'Anti-Racist' Activists in Alleged Call to 'Dutch Tolerance'
The Los Angeles Times hard-copy has the headline: "Hate Trial Tests Dutch Tolerance." And at the web edition: "Netherlands Politician Has Angry Words for Muslims."
He calls Islam a "totalitarian ideology." He compares the Koran to "Mein Kampf" and wants it banned. He says that millions of Muslims who have settled in Europe ought to be deported, taking their "retarded" culture with them.Notice the phony tie-in: Protesters in New York are the new Nazis, and the bloody freaking Westboro pastor in Florida is the poster-boy for alleged American racist hatred.
Such statements have made Geert Wilders the most controversial politician here in the Netherlands and a provocative figure abroad.
But do they also make him a criminal?
For months, Wilders, 47, has been at the center of a messy legal fight that has forced the parliament member to defend himself in an Amsterdam courtroom against charges of inciting hatred and insulting an entire class of people.
Wilders insists that he is being prosecuted — and persecuted — simply for speaking the truth about a dangerous religion and its adherents. His critics accuse him of whipping up public paranoia and jeopardizing the lives and livelihoods of the thousands of Muslims in the Netherlands.
The rancorous legal battle has thrown a spotlight on the growing tensions in societies where freedom of speech and freedom of religion seem to collide. Observers throughout Europe are closely watching the Wilders case at a time when vocal anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiment is fueling the rise of right-wing parties and politicians.
The case also resonates in the U.S., which has been dogged by controversies such as the maverick pastor who threatened to publicly burn a copy of the Koran and the heated debate over the proposed building of an Islamic community center near the site of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York.
Typical for the left's DEMOCRAT-MEDIA-INDUSTRIAL-COMPLEX. You never get the full story. Not even close. Those who champion freedom and dignity for the individual are slurred as "haters." Those who truly hate, the Muslims calling for "Death to Jews," are glorified as alleged "victims of racist oppressors." It's all totally FUBAR. For example, at the Times' hit piece:
To his detractors, he is also a peddler of fear and hatred directed at the Muslims, who make up just 6% of the population but who Wilders constantly warns are undermining traditional Dutch society by following the dictates of a "fascist book."This is pure bullshit, but what can you expect from the completely lame dead-tree press, not to mention the left's racism industry?
"More and more people are starting to believe his paranoia," said Rene Danen, head of an anti-racist organization based in Amsterdam. "The fear is planted by Wilders, who says that the Muslims are taking over, that they're a fifth column."
Danen is one of the activists whose official complaint prompted Wilders' trial on charges of inciting hatred and insulting a class of people. These are criminal offenses in the Netherlands, though a conviction would probably result only in a relatively minor fine.
"For us, the main thing is that the judge draws a line," putting Wilders' conduct and speech outside the legal pale, Danen said.
I'm still looking forward to meeting Geert Wilders. Once you listen to this man speak you know he has a heart of gold. He's truly one of the West's most vital champions of liberty and defense of democracy. Here's the speech from New York's SIOA rally:
RELATED: "Faith, Freedom, and Memory: Report From Ground Zero, September 11, 2010." And at Atlas Shrugs, "The Ground Zero Mosque War in the Information Battlespace."
White Is the New Hate Crime
Is that a Kafeiya the chicky is wearing in the Poster! Looks like they coloured it green to me. Some anti-racism message - No jews and whites!
Oh Goody you can leave them a message about their "diversity initiatives." I signed as Martin Borman and congradulated them for their good work!
Governor Chris Christie: O'Donnell Was a 'Missed Opportunity'
This brings me to the right's intra-ideological squabbles yesterday over New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's statement that Delaware conservatives (and voters) would have been better served with the nomination of RINO Mike Castle. We saw this debate during the primary (Patterico was at the center of this, if I recall). I'm not invested, but when Frum Forum links approvingly to radical leftist Amada Terkel at Puff Ho, that ought to be a heads up on squishy "moderate" conservative loyalties. The left is the left. Compromise kills conservatives.
Anyway, here's the lineup from yesterday. Dan Riehl goes for the ideological purity: "Post 2010: Conservatives Must Reject Christie, Powerline And Other Short-Term Thinkers." Skipping the introduction (taking aim at both Christie and Paul at Powerline), here's the beef:
While a Republican, a corporatist, or a governmentalist might describe Castle as potentially a good Senator, no honest, serious thinking Conservative ever would. That does not mean that O'Donnell was an ideal candidate. But it is imperative that the conservative movement learn from 2010, come to understand why we lost where we did, and reject the conventional Republican wisdom that only serves to undermine our cause. Surrendering to liberalism, while claiming victory as a Republican, is a defeat for conservatism. And it is precisely those types of defeats Republicans have been fostering for too long, damaging our movement and, ultimately, their own brand in the process.I like it. But how's the going over with folks? Well, Dan triggered a pretty good reaction among some other familiar bloggers. Check Jimmie at Sundries Shack, for example, "Conservatives, It’s Time to Grow the Hell Up":
It is obvious that Castle would make a far better Senator compared to Chris Coons who will be the Senator. In other words, had the Tea Parties shown a bit more discretion and wisdom, they most likely would not be looking at a reliable progressive vote in the Senate but someone who would side with Republicans at least as often as he would Democrats.I like that part about "I'm not a bigshot blogger." But be sure to read the rest. Jimmie suggests that whiny brats grow up and join the real world of bipartisan cooperation.
That’s not to say that Castle would have been our bestest buddy. We would have had to fight with him at least as often as we would with the Maine sisters, but we wouldn’t have to fight him all the time. I’m not big-shot blogger like my friend Dan, but even I know that someone who votes with conservatives half the time is much better than one who will never vote with conservatives. [edited].
Which leads us to Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway. Doug is anything but unpredictable: If it's ideologically conservative along Sarah Palin/tea party lines ... well, that's just too f**king crazy. See, "The Circular Firing Squad Takes Aim at Chris Christie":
Letting the perfect be the enemy of the good is rarely a good idea, and the fact that there are now two Senate seats in Delaware that are likely to be controlled by Democrats for the foreseeable future rather than just one should stand as a lesson to those who demand purity even when it’s suicidal.Folks can quibble about all of this, and I'm betting Dan and the others are not tweeting each other sweet nothings this morning, but after seven years of RINO government in California, I can tell you that successful fake Republicans are no better than genuine socialist commie Democrats. Sure, a vote here or there might be reassuring for GOP insiders, but every compromise helps the left in the end, on bullshit cap-and-trade, on budgetary bloat, on appeasement in international affairs, and so forth and so on. Just look where pragmatic conservatives line up. It if were me, I wouldn't come close to Frum Forum RINOs with a ten-foot pole --- and you can make that 100 if the name Alex Knepper gets thrown in there for some "pragmatic" icing on the cake!
And one final note.
When you start seeing people like Chris Christie being attacked for not being conservative enough, you know that the right is in danger of going off the rails. Or at least some parts of it.
Emily Miller on Twitter!
Perfect timing:
And The Other McCain has the morning news roundup, "LIVE AT FIVE – 11.08.10."