Saturday, February 6, 2016

Jeb Bush Was Supposed to Be New Face of Conservatism, But GOP Rivals Outpaced Him (VIDEO)

His campaign's just sad.

It's always been sad. He's been hated from the get-go. Nobody's wanted him. Nobody's wanted a third Bush term. Now the question is how he can bow out without disgracing his family even further?

At the Los Angeles Times, "Fight or flight? In New Hampshire, Jeb Bush's sagging campaign faces reckoning":


When Jeb Bush entered the presidential race, he had a vision of a transformative candidacy that would remake the Republican Party, attracting young people and minorities — especially Latinos — with a vibrant new image based on solid conservative principles.

Now it has come to this: A dismal finish in the Iowa caucuses, a slog through New Hampshire and a growing wish in the party that Bush would step aside or, at least, tone down his campaign so he doesn't hurt someone more likely to win — such as Marco Rubio, who reflects much of what Bush hoped to accomplish when he ran.

It is, he tells audiences, an exciting and joyful experience.

But for others watching, who know Bush and his family personally, or who witnessed his firm command as Florida's two-term governor, the spectacle is sad and disheartening to see. “It bothers people because they believe he deserves better,” said Susan MacManus, who teaches political science at the University of South Florida and has closely followed Bush and his career for decades.

Stepping into a Bush campaign event can seem like a voyage to the past.

The family lineage is evident even without the ritual invocation of his mother — who campaigned alongside Bush in New Hampshire on Thursday night — his father and, sometimes, his oldest brother, both former president. There is the awkward syntax, the preppy manner and, above all, the unfashionable reverence for elected office and the sanctity of the political process.

Noting that businessman Donald Trump has used profanity three times in a recent speech — Bush had obviously counted — he insisted, “Look, I'm no fuddy-duddy. But this should be at least [PG]-rated. I mean, we're running for president of the United States. There are children listening to this stuff!”

The issues he talks about — term limits, a balanced-budget amendment — were moldy when his brother sought the White House 16 years ago and some of his language can sound oddly old-fashioned as he warns against abusing a president's executive powers, “Oh, my goodness gracious!” or throws a session open to questions with an exuberant, “Give me some doozies!”

There is a hopeful Bush scenario in New Hampshire: a strong finish in Tuesday's primary, which sends him roaring into the next contest in South Carolina, where he emerges as the favorite of those in the Republican Party desperate to stop the insurgencies of Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.It seems improbable, however.

New Hampshire rescued Bush's father, then-Vice President George H.W. Bush, after he stumbled in Iowa in 1988. The state tripped up his older brother, the front-running George W. Bush, and almost cost him the GOP nomination to a surging John McCain in 2000.

This time, though, Jeb Bush rests far back among the also-rans, easily overlooked but for the bombardment of TV and radio advertisements savaging Trump and, especially, Florida Sen. Rubio, a former protégé-turned-campaign-nemesis.

The onslaught has angered many Republicans, including lawmakers on Capitol Hill, who see it as gratuitous, hopeless and, worse, potentially damaging to a candidate some have started to see as their best general election candidate after Rubio's strong third-place finish Monday night in Iowa. Bush appears unmoved.

“Guess what? This is not beanbag,” he said when a woman at a Laconia Town Hall meeting complained about the pile of attack mailers she has received from a pro-Bush political action committee, which has spent tens of millions of dollars attacking Rubio. “If you think it's ugly right now, wait till you get to the general election.”

With an edge to his voice, Bush offered this unsolicited advice to Rubio, who has complained about the barrage of negativity: “Get over it, man. This is politics.”

The former governor is 62, older than the 44-year-old Rubio but younger than Trump and both of the two Democrats running for president...
He might have to drop out after Monday night, but perhaps he's a glutton for punishment, or doesn't want to embarrass his family? I don't know. But the sooner he drops out the better --- it's been merciless on those who've had to watch.

PREVIOUSLY: "Stakes Are High in Tonight's GOP Debate."

FLASHBACK: Hillary Clinton Concession Speech After Finishing Third in 2008 Iowa Caucuses

Here's a preview of her Monday night speech coming up, after she loses New Hampshire to Bernie Sanders, lol.

For the life of me this woman can't get a break. In 2008, everyone thought she'd lock down an Iowa win and coast to the nomination. A year ago people were thinking the same thing about 2012.

The voters aren't cooperating with the party elites and the Clinton machine, obviously.

Via the Des Moines Register:

Deal of the Day: Braun 3040 Electric Shaver

At Amazon, Braun Series 3 3040 Wet and Dry Shaver, Electric Men's Razor, Razors, Shavers.

Plus, from E.J. Dionne, Why the Right Went Wrong: Conservatism, From Goldwater to the Tea Party and Beyond.

And Matt Lewis, Too Dumb to Fail: How the GOP Betrayed the Reagan Revolution to Win Elections (and How It Can Reclaim Its Conservative Roots), and McKay Coppins, The Wilderness: Deep Inside the Republican Party's Combative, Contentious, Chaotic Quest to Take Back the White House.

BONUS: From Russell Kirk, The Conservative Mind: From Burke to Eliot.

Stakes Are High in Tonight's GOP Debate

Following-up, "GOP Debate Tonight."

At WSJ, "GOP Debate Preview: High Stakes for Candidates Saturday":
The Republican presidential debate night in New Hampshire Saturday will feature the smallest array of candidates yet, but the stakes are higher than ever: For several candidates, this debate could be their swan song.

Among the seven candidates on the stage, there are several for whom a strong showing in New Hampshire is a make-or-break affair. Unlike prior nights, there is no undercard debate.

The line up has been whittled to seven as three candidates have quit the race after poor performances in Iowa — former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Sen. Rick Santorum, and Sen. Rand Paul. Also missing is former Hewlett-Packard chief Carly Fiorina, who was excluded from the stage because she didn’t do well enough in Iowa or recent polls.

For the seven who remain, here is what they need to accomplish in the debate at St. Anselm’s College in Manchester, N.H...
Keep reading.

Behind the scenes of Playboy's First Non-Nude Issue (VIDEO)

Following-up, "Playboy Magazine's First Non-Nude Issue."

Via ABC News Nightline:



GOP Debate Tonight

It's an ABC News debate, co-sponsored by WMUR News 9 Manchester, New Hamphire.



Plus, "WBUR New Hampshire Primary Poll: Trump Leads Nearest Rivals 29-to-12 Percent."

More Than a Thousand People Flock to Kanab, Utah, for Funeral of Robert 'LaVoy' Finicum (VIDEO)

At USA Today, "Man killed in Ore. standoff remembered as father, patriot":

ST. GEORGE, Utah — An Arizona rancher who was shot to death in a showdown with law enforcement authorities in Oregon last week was remembered Friday as a man who loved his family, his God and his country during funeral services in Utah.

More than a thousand mourners dressed in Sunday best, some in cowboy hats and boots, gathered at a Mormon church near the Kanab airport for services paying tribute to Robert "LaVoy" Finicum of Cane Beds, Ariz., who died Jan. 26 following the monthlong siege at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge.

“I know my dad’s working just as tirelessly on the other side to protect his family and our freedoms,” one daughter said. Finicum’s 11 children spoke in quick succession during the services.

“He often commented to me about all the good people who were coming to see him and how it encouraged him,” Finicum’s wife, Jeanette, said.

One of those people was Cedar City resident Beth Stephenson, who wrote a condolence card for Finicum’s family while waiting for the funeral to begin.

Stephenson said she introduced herself to Finicum during his brief stop in Cedar City last month for a radio talk show interview before returning to Oregon.

Stephenson, who was working next door to the radio station, said she was impressed with Finicum’s sincerity so she decided to go to the station during a break in the interview.

“I had a strong feeling that he was doing the right thing. ... It was a really strong impression that this was a really great man,” Stephenson said...
More.

PREVIOUSLY: "Supporters from Across the U.S. Gathered for LaVoy Finicum Funeral Services in Kanab, Utah (VIDEO)."

Democrats Use New Hampshire Primary to Frame Long Battle to Come

Following-up from earlier, "A Raging Battle Over the Democrat Party's Future."

At the Washington Post, "Clinton, Sanders use N.H. primary to frame long battle to come":
CONCORD, N.H. — For the Democratic presidential candidates, there are two urgent campaigns underway in New Hampshire.

The first is over the size of what Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders agree is a likely Sanders victory here: Clinton is pulling out every stop to shrink what the latest polls show is a gap of 20 percentage points or more, while Sanders is striving for a win that would give his long-shot candidacy fresh momentum.

But the more consequential battle playing out on the ground here this week may be about what happens after New Hampshire — and which themes and issues will shape a potentially prolonged battle for the Democratic nomination.

At her appearances here this week, Clinton has tried to build a foundation to frame the choice before Democratic voters in the weeks ahead. “I’m a progressive who gets results,” she has said again and again.

It is not that Clinton is giving up on New Hampshire, a state where she in 2008 and her husband, Bill Clinton, in 1992 mounted comebacks. But however unlikely a victory in Tuesday’s primary may seem, Clinton is using the closing days of the New Hampshire campaign to set the tone for the contests in Nevada and South Carolina, as well as the dozens of big-state primaries and caucuses that follow in March and beyond.

Clinton plans to leave New Hampshire briefly on Sunday for a hastily arranged visit to Flint, Mich. She has regularly cited the lead-poisoned water crisis in the economically depressed and majority-African American city as an example of racial and economic inequality.

“Hillary is looking across a much broader and more diverse Democratic Party than the New Hampshire electorate,” said strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton loyalist. “An old professor of mine said there are parachutists and truffle hunters. Truffle hunters dig down real deep and focus on one thing, and parachutists look at the entire landscape. This is what’s going on here.”

The same could be said for Sanders. On Friday, the senator from Vermont accepted the endorsement of Benjamin Jealous, the former head of the NAACP. (Jealous was scheduled to join Sanders at a news conference at the historic town hall in Exeter, N.H., but a snowstorm snarled his travel plans, and the two men addressed reporters by phone.)

Sanders’s move was aimed at a much wider audience than predominantly white New Hampshire. It also comes as he is trying to boost his recognition and support among black voters, who account for more than half of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina, which holds its primary on Feb. 27.

But Sanders is hardly taking his eye off New Hampshire. Though his aides are trying to tamp down expectations, Sanders is doing everything he can to grind out a big win. His campaign is trying to frame the primary here as a test of general-election strength, considering the state’s large numbers of independent voters.

If he beats Clinton by a large margin, his advisers said, it would be a crucial springboard that gives immediate credibility to his insurgent bid...
Keep reading.

Raheel Raz, By the Numbers: The Untold Story of Muslim Opinions & Demographics

This is awesome, via Big Government, "Viral Video by Muslim Woman Sparks Movement to Defeat Radical Islam." (Via Memeorandum.)



And the Clarion Project, "'By the Numbers': Watch Clarion's New Short Film."

Also, clicking through, "By the Numbers Movie – How We Measured the Stats."

Iowa Democratic Party Jiggered Precinct's Caucus on Election Night

At the Guardian UK, "Iowa Democratic party altered precinct's caucus results during chaotic night":
Shift of one delegate from Bernie Sanders to Hillary Clinton raises questions about Iowa Democratic party’s management of first-in-the-nation vote.

In the Iowa Democratic party’s chaotic attempt to report caucus results on Monday night, the results in at least one precinct were unilaterally changed by the party as it attempted to deal with the culmination of a rushed and imperfect process overseeing the first-in-the-nation nominating contest.

In Grinnell Ward 1, the precinct where elite liberal arts college Grinnell College is located, 19 delegates were awarded to Bernie Sanders and seven were awarded to Hillary Clinton on caucus night. However, the Iowa Democratic party decided to shift one delegate from Sanders to Clinton on the night and did not notify precinct secretary J Pablo Silva that they had done so. Silva only discovered that this happened the next day, when checking the precinct results in other parts of the county.

The shift of one delegate at a county convention level would not have significantly affected the ultimate outcome of the caucus, but rather, it raises questions about the Iowa Democratic party’s management of caucus night.

The Iowa Democratic party had long been plagued with organizational issues around the caucus and failed to find hundreds of needed volunteers to oversee individual precinct caucuses just over a week before Monday. The result was a disorganized process that lent itself to chaos and conspiracy theories. Although Andy McGuire, the chair of the Iowa Democratic party, is a longtime Clinton supporter whose license plate once read HRC 2016, no one familiar with the issue has accused the error of being a partisan process. Instead, they have blamed simple mismanagement.

The party issued a statement early on Tuesday, detailing final delegate numbers that had Clinton winning the caucuses. However, the statement came shortly after party officials gave the impression to the Sanders campaign that no statement with results would be issued at all that night.

Instead, they were told “they would reconvene at 9am and let’s talk”. As of now, Clinton has a lead of just over two-tenths of a percent over Sanders in the overall apportionment of delegates in Iowa. This would equal an overall share of 23 delegates to the national convention for Clinton, to Sanders’ 21. The Iowa Democratic party has refused to audit the results.

The subject came up in Thursday night’s Democratic debate. Clinton expressed no opposition to the concept of an audit saying: “Whatever they decide to do, that’s fine.” Sanders was equally as relaxed. “Let’s not blow this out of proportion,” he said, adding,: “This is not the biggest deal in the world. We think, by the way, based on talking to our precinct captains, we may have at least two more delegates.”
Keep reading.

And see Jennifer Jacobs, at the Des Moines Register, "Iowa margin between Clinton, Sanders shifts as errors found."

Construction Crane Collapse in Lower Manhattan Kills One Person (VIDEO)

At the New York Post, "One person was killed and three others injured when a crane collapsed in lower Manhattan."

And at CBS News 2 New York:



Bernie Sanders Interrupts Press Conference, Rushes to Help Man Who Fainted (VIDEO)

Hat Tip: Ericka Anderson on Facebook this morning, who said, in so many words, that no matter what you think about his views, it's no doubt that Bernie Sanders is a kind and decent man.

Watch:



Jackie Johnson's Weekend Forecast

More nice weather. I don't think anyone's going to complain for tomorrow's Super Bowl up north.



WBUR New Hampshire Primary Poll: Trump Leads Nearest Rivals 29-to-12 Percent

See, "WBUR Poll: In N.H., Democratic Race Tightens Slightly, Trump Stays Ahead on GOP Side."

Trump's numbers are consistent across the number of New Hampshire polls I've blogged. It's the "battle for the second" tier that's pretty unsettled. But Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are tied at 12 percent in the WBUR poll, although the CNN/WMUR poll had Rubio at 18 percent, which is a pretty good difference. See, "Trump Ahead by 11-Points in New Hampshire; Rubio Surges in 'Battle for the Second Tier' (VIDEO)."

It's been a crazy week.

The UMass Lowell poll is releasing numbers throughout the weekend, so there's still more data we'll have to look at before Tuesday's election.

So, check back, as always.

Friday, February 5, 2016

A Raging Battle Over the Democrat Party's Future

It's an ideological battle, although I don't think it's as big a deal as all the media people make it out to be.

The Democrats have been lurching leftward since the early Bush administration, especially post-2003 and the Iraq war. The Democrats became the party of defeat, attacking the Iraq war as based on a lie. John Kerry lost in 2004, but Barack Hussein won in 2008, and the party's been moving left ever since. Now with Bernie Sanders, the Democrats are out and out proclaiming their ideological socialism. No doubt some DNC folks aren't pleased with this candor, thinking it might hurt them in 2016, and Hillary's trying to appear progressive, but not too much so. She's hammering on the pragmatic "progressive who gets things done" meme. But it won't matter much. The cat's out of the bag. If a Democrat wins in November it'll be up to the Republicans in Congress to push back against further gains for socialist ideology in this country, and who's optimistic about that? Not too many GOP primary voters, by the looks of things.

In any case, at the Los Angeles Times, "In fight between Clinton and Sanders, a raging battle over Democrats' future":
The Democratic presidential campaign is most obviously a fight between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. It is also a contest over what kind of party Democrats want to have and what level of purity will be required to be part of it.

The party’s leftward swing this year, made obvious by the surge of support for democratic socialist Sanders and his call for political revolution, marks a direct reversal of the party’s shift to the center in the 1990s. That lurch, engineered by Clinton’s husband Bill and his allies, moderated the party after its loss of 5-of-6 presidential campaigns from 1968 through 1988 and ushered in a period of top-of-the-ticket Democratic dominance and, for a time, control of Congress.

Clinton's response to Sanders' strength has been to put forward her own brand of pragmatic liberalism and to insist that her plans are more achievable given Republican strength on Capitol Hill and a deeply-divided country. That is a less-than-satisfying response for many Democrats who want to seize on this campaign to pick a nominee who reflects the party’s more-liberal present and not its moderate past.

Both Sanders and Clinton are riding the impact of increased partisanship and polarization in the country, the same factors that have forced Republicans through internal bloodbaths.

A Gallup survey released earlier this year showed the growth of more ideological wings in both parties. Among Democrats, 45% identified themselves as liberal, up 6 points since 2011 and 16 points since 2000. The change has been driven in large part by a growing minority vote and the increasing youth of the party.

Republicans’ growing pains were the mirror image, with self-identified conservatives growing to 68% of the party, up 6 points since 2000.

The fight over what defines a Democrat will spark repercussions throughout the presidential race and into the general election, for the different answers suggest vastly different paths to the presidency.

Sanders' view is that by drawing enthusiastic support he can expand turnout nationally and in the states to create a mandate for his ideas.

"Democrats win when there is a large voter turnout, when people are excited, when working people, middle-class people and young people are prepared to engage in the political process," the Vermont senator said Thursday.

Clinton portrayed herself as the natural successor to President Obama and someone whose views would find support among both Democrats, independents and moderates who might be put off by Sanders’ inciting call...
Still more.

CNN Hypes 'White Nationalist' Robocalls for Donald Trump in New Hampshire (VIDEO)

Here's CNN the report, via Memeorandum, "Trump's unwelcome support: White supremacists."

And Red State's Jay Caruso runs with the story, "White Supremacists Form a Super PAC. Take a Wild Guess Who They're Supporting?" (That's a safe link, to Caruso's Twitter feed. Red State and the National Review people completely lost it this last couple of weeks over Donald Trump. It's been pretty ugly, really.)

This isn't the first media outlet hyping the so-called "White Nationalist" support for trump. The group's robocalls were also reported in Iowa. The Washington Post covered them, sensationally, apparently. Jared Taylor, who's interviewed at the CNN video, responded to WaPo's report here, "Donald Trump, White Supremacism, and the Insanity of the WASHINGTON POST":

The Washington Post recently interviewed me for a story about robocalls I made to support Donald Trump in Iowa [Hear a white nationalist’s robocall urging Iowa voters to back Trump, January 12, 2016]

The reporter, Peter Holley [email him], was the usual bright young lad, and we had a 45-minute phone conversation that covered a lot of ground.

People who know nothing about racial dissidents call us “white supremacists,” so I explained why that’s wrong.
Me: “No, I’m not a white supremacist. If that’s someone who wants to rule over people of other races, I’ve never even met one. They’re extinct.”

Mr. Holley: “What about someone who thinks white people are superior to other people?”

Me: “I don’t think that. East Asians have higher average IQs, lower crime rates, fewer illegitimate children—they’re superior to whites in lots of ways. Do you want to call me a ‘yellow supremacist’?”
I went on to explain that “white supremacist” is the most morally-loaded expression of contempt for a white person in the English language. I told him it’s the equivalent of calling blacks ni**ers. If you want to say someone is so wicked and primitive that you needn’t pay attention to a word he says, you call him a “white supremacist.”

Well, Mr. Holley managed not to call me the equivalent of a ni**ger—but referred to me as “editor of the white supremacist magazine American Renaissance.”

When I emailed to ask him why AmRen is “white supremacist” he wrote back to say: “I think, given the content of your magazine, that’s not inaccurate.”

I suppose the best we can hope for from Washington Post is that it be “not inaccurate.”

So what did he call me? A “white nationalist.”

As I like to ask, what do you call a black person who prefers black culture and prefers to live and hang out with other black people? A black person. It’s the ones who don’t prefer black culture etc. who are called names like “Oreo.” It’s the same with Hispanics. “Coconut” is not a compliment.

But as soon as a white man says he prefers white people and European culture then you need a swear word for him. If you’ve been talked out of “supremacist” you go with “nationalist”—because it has the bomb-throwing aroma of Basque or Kurdish nationalism.

Years ago, I sometimes let people class me as a “white nationalist.” But I’ve since concluded that the term is hopelessly tainted. White advocate, race realist, identitarian—I accept any of those terms. But I can’t get the WaPo to use them anyway.

The less sophisticated-East Cost-liberal that a paper is, the better. Local community fishwraps have written touchingly straightforward stories about me. Even USA Today recently wrote “Taylor, who describes himself as a ‘white advocate,’. . . .” [White nationalists urge support for Donald Trump in Iowa, by Fredreka Schouten, January 12, 2016]

I tried to warn WaPo’s Mr. Holley about the Southern Poverty Law Center ($PLC to VDARE.com). For the 100th time, I tried to explain how contemptible it is to look for people with whom you disagree, claim to read their minds, and then call them “haters.” It’s like “white supremacist.” “Haters” are so unhinged that what they say is sure to be rubbish, so if the SPLC’s Mark Potok says Jared Taylor is a hater that’s all you need to know about him...
Still more. (Via Memeorandum.)

That's all good.

Remember, though, I draw the line at flying the Confederate Flag. If you're going to insist flying it because is "heritage not hate," you've lost me. I'm sympathetic, but I just don't buy the "heritage" argument, even less so after spending all last summer reading Civil War history.

Supporters from Across the U.S. Gathered for LaVoy Finicum Funeral Services in Kanab, Utah (VIDEO)

There's video at the report.

Watch, at Fox News 13 Salt Lake City, "Supporters from across the country gather in Utah for funeral of LaVoy Finicum":

KANAB, Utah -- More than a thousand people from across the country gathered in Kanab Friday for the funeral of Arizona rancher LaVoy Finicum, who was shot and killed by authorities in Oregon during the standoff and protest at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge.

LaVoy's two eldest daughters spoke at a press conference after the services, saying they believe their father didn't break the law, but the federal government did. The family is calling for a private, independent investigation into LaVoy's death.

LaVoy Finicum's family said a lot of people in the past week have only focused on the way he died, but they said it's more important to focus on the way he lived

Horses with empty saddles galloped past LaVoy Finicum's family and supporters, as they carried the casket to his final resting place. It was one last ride for the lifelong rancher.

"We've often said LaVoy was born a century too late, you know, so the honor of being led off in a wagon and escorted by horseback is an honor for any cowboy,” said David Cluff, one of Fincium’s cousins.

Many of the people attending the funeral said they never even met LaVoy, but they wanted to be here because they share the same values.

"This is a great American patriot,” said Loie Corson, who attended the services. “I didn't know him, and I might not have done it the way he did, but I really feel in my heart that he tried to do it through the system. He tried to take the legal channels, and when you go up against the system: it's tough.”
PREVIOUSLY: "About Two Dozen People Visited LaVoy Finicum Memorial on U.S. 395 Today."

Megyn Kelly Discusses Her 'Bizarre' Feud with Donald Trump (VIDEO)

She's interviewed by George Stephanopoulos, who I normally try to avoid.

But it's an interesting clip, nevertheless. I have a lot of respect for Megyn Kelly, despite all the attacks Fox News has been getting from various parties, not the least Donald Trump.

Watch, via GMA:



About Two Dozen People Visited LaVoy Finicum Memorial on U.S. 395 Today

LaVoy's funeral was today in Kanab, Utah.

I'll have more on that.

Meanwhile, here's Cole Miller for KOIN News 6 Portland:

And watch here, "Hundreds attend LaVoy Finicum viewing," and "Sympathizers pack Utah town for LaVoy Finicum."

Donald Trump Holds 19-Points Lead in UMass Lowell Tracking Poll with 3 Days of Post-Iowa Caucus Data

Okay, following-up, "Trump Ahead by 11-Points in New Hampshire; Rubio Surges in 'Battle for the Second Tier' (VIDEO)."

Now, here's the latest from UMass Lowell, "FEB. 5: RACE TIGHTENING ON BOTH SIDES":
Today is the first release with three days of post-Iowa Caucus data. It appears that Clinton’s win in Iowa has led to a sizable bump. She now trails Sanders by 15 points, 55%-40%. Trump continues to lead his nearest Republican challenger by 19 points. Cruz and Rubio show moderate gains.
And see, "UMass Lowell/7News: Daily Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters, Release 5 of 8":
Trump Leads by 19; Race is Tightening

Meanwhile, after losing the expectations game in Iowa, businessman and reality television personality Donald Trump continues to lead his nearest Republican challenger by 19 points. Trump is garnering support from 34% of Republican primary voters; he is down two points from Wednesday’s release and four points since our first release before the Iowa Caucus. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who had previously gained in every day of our tracking poll, remains at 15%, unchanged from yesterday. Ted Cruz is at 14% (no change), John Kasich is at 8% (+1), Jeb Bush is at 8% (no change), Chris Christie is at 5% (no change), Ben Carson is at 4% (no change), Carly Fiorina is at 3% (no change), of Republican Primary Likely Voters 8% remain undecided.

Soft Support: 42% of Republicans Still Could Change Their Minds

Republican primary voters, however, are still making up their minds. In addition to the 8% who remain undecided, 42% say that they could change their mind...
Well, the "soft support" likely means that Saturday's GOP debate could have a real impact.

Stay tuned...