President-elect Trump, my friend: Congratulations on being elected President of the United States of America. @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/mGqS8cYpws
— Benjamin Netanyahu (@netanyahu) November 9, 2016
I voted! #Feelthebern pic.twitter.com/FB7mBQAhGC
— Tania Gail (@TaniaGailPhotos) November 8, 2016
HIGHER EDUCATION BUBBLE UPDATE: Virginia University Offers ‘Healing Space’ for Distraught #NeverTrump Students.More.
Related: “This chick’s unbelievable meltdown because Trump won is a perfect capper on the day’s election blogs.”
The polls, prediction markets and political experts all counted on a win for Hillary Clinton, whether they simply acknowledged Democrats’ many paths to the White House or predicted a sweeping victory that would shift the electoral map.More.
Donald Trump and the thousands of people at his rallies were just as certain those same experts — the very establishment they were running against — were all wrong.
There was too much appetite for change, Trump and his supporters said. Clinton, in public life for four decades, was too polarizing to capture a divided nation by acclamation, they insisted. The media had become too disconnected to detect the signals, they warned.
“As I’ve said from the beginning, ours was not a campaign,” Trump said in accepting victory early Wednesday after Clinton called to concede, “but rather an incredible and great movement.”
The nature of the race may have come as a surprise to political analysts from both parties, but the signs were there all along. Trump’s defiance of political convention began on the the day he announced his presidential campaign and never stopped.
Trump spoke often of the June referendum in Britain, where a majority voted to leave the European Union. “Brexit times five!” Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania. But while a popular notion has taken hold that the polls did not predict that vote, that is not true; several predicted the outcome but were ignored by the betting markets and pundits who played up their preferred outcome.
The similarities were clear. Both movements were fueled by working-class whites, who felt left behind amid cultural and economic changes.
Experts warned of dire consequences, to the economy and to national standing, if voters in Britain chose to leave Europe or voters in the U.S. chose Trump. The same experts were sure that voters would follow their lead.
Yet these voters scoffed at those elites as they raged against globalization and immigration, deciding it was worth the gamble to disrupt a system they saw as corrupt.
“He has stood up for the people that don’t have a say,” said Tammy Tavalsky, a 50-year-old who owns a printing company with her husband and attended an especially raucous rally in Johnstown, Pa...
For over a year, after it became clear to me that Donald Trump had a real chance at victory, I have lived life in retrospect. “Be thankful for the present,” I tweeted on Nov. 26, 2015. “We may spend next Thanksgiving in a post-Trump victory. Be thankful for the present, and fight the future.”More.
As his popularity rose, and his threats became more inflammatory, his policies more alarming, I warned that he could really win. I warned of the hardship in my part of the country – an economic pain, it should be noted, that is not unique to whites, but shared by non-whites who still managed to not vote for a fascist. I warned that most of the U.S. never truly recovered from the recession, and that the denial of this reality can lead to the embrace of a populist demagogue who lies about numbers in a way that feels true. I warned, and eventually begged, a financially desperate and morally bankrupt media to stop promoting Mr. Trump, stop cowering to Mr. Trump, and protect the public from his persecutory plans.
I begged because the hardest hit will be those who are already the most vulnerable – blacks, Latinos, Muslims, immigrants. I begged because the historic victims of brutality are likely to become the future victims of an even worse brutality, one abetted not by a white supremacist movement lurking in the shadows, but dominating at centre stage.
I asked people to see the worst in our country so that we could preserve the best of it. American exceptionalism was never real. It was a myth of hubris, and a deep denial of the past. We are a country founded on slave labour and stolen land. We are a country where white mobs lynched blacks for entertainment, and white parents told their children to gather around and cheer.
Children are taught in school that these injustices are exceptions, but they are the rule. The willful blindness to injustice is the real American exceptionalism. We deny our worst instincts. And now we may have elected them.
The sheer number of Americans who voted for a cruel, vengeful bigot who has repeatedly threatened masses of the population means that we, as a country, have lost. When he is president, the depths of that loss will be counted in money and in bodies, as markets crash and violence – sanctioned and unsanctioned – erupts.
But the moral loss cuts deeper. In every tragedy there is a before and an after, and we have been living in the after since Mr. Trump launched his campaign with threats against Mexicans and people rationalized it or laughed it off. His campaign should have ended when it began, but instead the media made his bigotry lucrative, with every revelation of his corruption, brutality and ignorance marketed as tabloid fodder, condoned by the Republican party and by much of the public.
I warned that his behaviour resembled that of the dictators in authoritarian regimes that I have studied for over a decade. I wrote that the motto of dictatorship is, “It can’t happen here.”
It can happen here. So I began living life in retrospect, treasuring small moments: the last Christmas, the last first day of school, the last changing of the seasons. It felt fragile then, and it feels broken now...
Donald Trump Captured Desire for Change https://t.co/zxD8cMjaEv #MAGA #TrumpTrain #Election2016 #ElectionNight
— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) November 9, 2016
Win or lose, this was always going to be the campaign of Donald Trump, candidate, strategist and sole star.Still more.
He ran a campaign that was frequently unscripted, controversial and off-message. It was a style that shocked the establishment and appalled many in his own Republican party. Yet, it endeared him to millions of fiercely loyal followers, and they turned out with passion.
That’s because the billionaire businessman, with his brash talk and celebrity zeitgeist, tapped into a yearning for change among a significant swath of the American public. That change message was the most powerful force of 2016.
The Republican nominee, in an interview in the final hours before election day, said he was most gratified that his message of change resonated across the country. “Nobody understood the message but me. The elites never got it,” Mr. Trump said. “The American public did.”
His populist campaign overwhelmed his Republican foes and finally his more experienced and better-funded Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. The self-styled “outsider” who challenged the political establishment and mainstream media will take over a deeply divided country that he brought into sharp contrast in his successful bid for the White House.
“I’m going to celebrate for about an hour,” Mr. Trump said in the interview ahead of the vote. “Then I’ll get up Wednesday morning and start working so hard immediately. Saving the United States is so important.”
Even though Mr. Trump proved to be a flawed messenger who often spent long stretches on defense talking about himself, his message consistently hit his change mantra.
“Donald had the right message and the unique ability to drive that message to the average American,” said Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions, an early Trump supporter. “His ups and downs came because he wasn’t the normal smooth politician, but he stayed the course to become a better candidate who looked more presidential every day.”
In winning the presidency, Mr. Trump imposes a significant makeover of the Republican party into more of a populist, America-first bastion. As the GOP standard-bearer, he was a kind of one-man wrecking ball whose positions on immigration, trade and keeping jobs at home prevailed over the party’s historic emphasis on social conservatism, free markets and small government.
Mr. Trump, in the interview, said the GOP should accept his policy changes and his new Republican converts. “We’ve brought millions and millions of people into the party…the forgotten men and women of America, who really built the country in a true sense,” he said.
From start to its finish, Mr. Trump seldom mentioned the word “Republican.” Indeed, his GOP challengers during the primaries attempted to paint him as a Democrat in Republican clothing. Mr. Trump preferred to characterize his campaign another way: “This is a movement, folks, like they’ve never seen before,” he repeatedly told crowds.
At the same time, his closest advisers weren’t traditional Republicans. Stephen Bannon, who took a leave as the chairman of Breitbart News to join the campaign as chief executive in August, is an arch conservative who made films about the rise of the tea party and advised Sarah Palin. He urged the candidate to give full voice to the populist and nationalist message that appeals to his base.
Jared Kushner, a successful real-estate developer, is married to Mr. Trump’s daughter Ivanka. They are fixtures on Manhattan’s mostly liberal social scene. He quietly set up key headquarters functions including social media, data, scheduling, policy and online fundraising. He served as the intermediary in dealings with GOP factions including the Republican National Committee, wealthy donors and foreign leaders.
As the race tightened in the campaign’s final days, Mr. Trump finally appealed to more traditional Republicans by sticking to his prepared remarks on a teleprompter on the GOP favorite topics of Obamacare and Clinton corruption. He succeeded in “bringing home” some GOP lawmakers to support him publicly, even as some, including former presidents and some rivals, refused to unify behind him...
There are no more prescient pollsters in this world than hungry vaguely international models. They can read the prevailing winds like Frank Luntz with a magical vagina. Does that dude have real money or is that Lambo rented? Will ten thousand drachma pay my rent? Why is there no exchange rate for former European Union currencies?
My beautiful #dumptrump outfits collection 😂😂😂💃💃💃 pic.twitter.com/KSAKMm8fUj
— Claudia Romani (@ClaudiaRomani) November 8, 2016
Did conservatives look this downcast and depressed after Obama's victories? It looks like mass death on the left today, everywhere. #MAGA
— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) November 9, 2016
The election of Donald Trump to the Presidency is nothing less than a tragedy for the American republic, a tragedy for the Constitution, and a triumph for the forces, at home and abroad, of nativism, authoritarianism, misogyny, and racism. Trump’s shocking victory, his ascension to the Presidency, is a sickening event in the history of the United States and liberal democracy. On January 20, 2017, we will bid farewell to the first African-American President—a man of integrity, dignity, and generous spirit—and witness the inauguration of a con who did little to spurn endorsement by forces of xenophobia and white supremacy. It is impossible to react to this moment with anything less than revulsion and profound anxiety.
There are, inevitably, miseries to come: an increasingly reactionary Supreme Court; an emboldened right-wing Congress; a President whose disdain for women and minorities, civil liberties and scientific fact, to say nothing of simple decency, has been repeatedly demonstrated. Trump is vulgarity unbounded, a knowledge-free national leader who will not only set markets tumbling but will strike fear into the hearts of the vulnerable, the weak, and, above all, the many varieties of Other whom he has so deeply insulted. The African-American Other. The Hispanic Other. The female Other. The Jewish and Muslim Other. The most hopeful way to look at this grievous event—and it’s a stretch—is that this election and the years to follow will be a test of the strength, or the fragility, of American institutions. It will be a test of our seriousness and resolve...
My obituary for Obama left-wing identity politics -- & a tribute to Trump's DIVERSE coalition==>https://t.co/WJQwDiU8Lq
— Michelle Malkin (@michellemalkin) November 9, 2016
I'm speechless #ElectionNight https://t.co/UANsIHoNKK
— FREDDY (@FreddyAmazin) November 9, 2016
"When reality sets in." What a piece by @mattdpearce. https://t.co/14zoqt9ww5 pic.twitter.com/TQ1k59wpnx
— Laura J. Nelson (@laura_nelson) November 9, 2016
SCHADENFREUDE: Check out these pitiful photos, video of supporters at Hillary Clinton Headquarters https://t.co/p8OOxHzqiX
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) November 9, 2016
Hillary Clinton supporters are crying at Clinton Headquarters #ElectionNight #Election2016 pic.twitter.com/HxdMuJGMTE
— An0maly (@An0malyMusic) November 9, 2016
The front page of tomorrow's Los Angeles Times. pic.twitter.com/Ma9lemwqya
— Matt Pearce (@mattdpearce) November 9, 2016
It's morning again in America.
— #JeSuisJuive (@lamblock) November 9, 2016
How could the polling be so wrong? https://t.co/U3CHmtklo5 | Getty pic.twitter.com/lFhzDZ7LS1
— POLITICO (@politico) November 9, 2016
The Crystal Ball's final presidential map. Toughest calls were FL, NC, OH. Clinton 322, Trump 216. https://t.co/KW5wKGQ9nn pic.twitter.com/I5Ez48RG04
— Geoffrey Skelley (@geoffreyvs) November 7, 2016
Despite some wobbles along the way, we’ve favored Hillary Clinton as the 45th president of the United States ever since we did our first handicapping of the Clinton vs. Donald Trump matchup back in late March. The edge we had for her back then has eroded a little bit at the end — we had her as high as 352 electoral votes, and in the final tally we have her down to 322, with 216 for Trump. If this is how it turns out, Trump will fare 10 electoral votes better than Mitt Romney, and Clinton will do 10 electoral votes worse than Barack Obama in 2012 — 11 or 12 if rogue Washington electors follow through on their threat to refuse to vote for Clinton (but we can’t assume that at this time).Keep reading for the rest of the picks.
The two closest states here are North Carolina and Ohio. For a long time, it appeared that Florida was a shakier state for Clinton than the Tar Heel State, but our sources indicate that the Sunshine State looks somewhat brighter for her now, although both should be tight. Meanwhile, Ohio may be a real Toss-up state. Buckeye history and demography point to Trump, but Clinton’s ground operation could come through for her in the end. If Ohio does vote for Trump while he is losing the White House, it will be just the third time in 31 elections that Ohio will have voted for the loser. We’re picking that to happen, but if Clinton gets any benefit out of James Comey’s final (?) intervention into campaign 2016, it may be that it generates a tiny bounce that allows her to leapfrog Trump in the Buckeye State. Arizona and Iowa seem like heavier lifts for Clinton but her campaign still holds out hope in both. Ultimately, we think North Carolina and Ohio are the hardest calls in the Electoral College, so we think it makes the most sense to just split them.
The buzz in the final days has been about a late Trump play in Michigan. He will likely eat into traditional Democratic margins there, but remember that Barack Obama won the state by nearly 10 points in 2012 (450,000 votes). Trump’s climb there is steep, but out of an abundance of caution we’re moving the state from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. We’re doing the same thing in New Hampshire, where some polls were close last week (although many operatives do not believe the state is tied), and Pennsylvania, two states (like Michigan) that have very little early voting. Clinton is focusing on these states at the end, too, and with good reason. If Trump pulls an upset, it’ll probably be because he narrowly fought off Clinton in Florida and North Carolina and managed to spring a shocker or two in the Rust Belt.
Florida may tell us a lot about whether we’re going to have a long night or a short one. About two-thirds of voters will likely have cast their ballots early, so the vote count should not take that long. If Clinton wins the state by two or three points and is declared the victor early on, it’ll be hard to find a plausible path to Trump victory. If Trump captures the state, though, then we’ll have to see if her firewall states, like the aforementioned states of Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, as well as Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia, come through for her.
In the prognostication business, what you predict at the end — when the drift of the year is usually fairly clear — is less significant than what you predict months before, at a time when the future is foggy. Starting in March, we have released a total of 17 Electoral College maps in the Clinton-Trump race. Not even on Clinton’s worst campaign days did we ever have her below 270 electoral votes...
