Jackie Johnson's Cooling Holiday Forecast

Well, it was pretty much boiling today.

I was sweating like a mofo earlier, running around campus.

Here's Ms. Jackie, via CBS News 2 Los Angeles:

Donald Trump Delivers Tough Immigration Speech in Phoenix (VIDEO)

At the Arizona Republic, "Trump in Phoenix: Watch immigration speech live":

7:15 p.m.: Trump vows to build the wall

Donald Trump began laying out his immigration plan, asking the crowd, “Are you ready? Are you ready?”

His first step: “We will build a great wall along the southern border," he said.

The crowd chanted, “Build the wall.”

“And Mexico will pay for the wall. They don’t know it yet, but they’re going to pay for the wall. Great people and great leaders, but they’re going to pay for the wall."

Trump said he would build a wall that was tall, impenetrable and beautiful.

“We will use the best technology,” he said, “including above and below-ground sensors, towers, aerial surveillance, to supplement the wall.”

Trump said he believed Mexico would help with his plan because it would stop criminal cartels.

“Especially after meeting with their wonderful, wonderful president today,” Trump said, “they want to solve this problem along with us, and I’m sure they will.”

More at LAT, "Campaign 2016 updates: Donald Trump vows that Mexico will pay for a wall along southern border."

Plus, more video, "Donald Trump says Illegal Immigrants will be out within the 1st hour he's President - AGAIN," and "Donald Trump says maybe ICE will deport Hillary Clinton - Phoenix, Arizona."

And, "Donald Trump lays out three steps of his immigration policy."

Trump Secures Major Victory in Mexico Visit (VIDEO)

TPM's Josh Marshall had an essay up yesterday asking, "Can Trump Be This Stupid? (Not a Trick Question)."

I thought "Can Josh Marshal Be This Stupid?"

The Mexico visit was a brilliant idea. It surprised everyone and actually opened a dialog with Mexico on building the wall. Trump beats expectations and appears diplomatic. Pretty smart, I thought.

So here's Byron York with the confirmation, at the Washington Examiner, "Mexico gamble a huge win for Trump":

About an hour before Donald Trump made his joint statement with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, a strategist in Trump's extended circle saw success on the horizon.

"I bet they have a nice meeting where they both explain their positions and promise to talk further — it doesn't have to be any more complicated than that," the strategist explained. "If [Trump] just has a calm, behind-closed-doors meeting, has a photo taken, looks presidential, and gets out of town, that's a big win."

Indeed, it was a big win — a very big win — for Trump. Going into a meeting with the potential for disaster — who knew how Pena Nieto would receive the world's most controversial presidential candidate or what embarrassments might lie ahead? — Trump came out of the meeting looking very much like a potential President of the United States. Standing beside the Mexican leader in front of a green-gray granite wall reminiscent of the United Nations, Trump presented the picture of a statesman.

Less than 24 hours earlier, Trump was reciting "The Snake" before a rowdy audience in Everett, Washington. In Mexico, he looked like a world leader.

Before the meeting, some in the Trump circle saw a win virtually no matter what happened. "It's a great gesture," another adviser said. "Frankly, the outcome doesn't matter. It's the fact that he did it. He took the guy up on his invitation, and even if there's no substance, at least the gesture was made, and it absolutely, totally overshadows anything Hillary Clinton is going to do for the next 48 hours."

After the hour-long session, Trump benefited enormously from the conventions and practices of international relations. There they were, the president at one podium and the candidate at another, translators translating, the assembled international press watching. When it came time to talk, Pena Nieto observed the niceties of diplomacy, treating Trump as a quasi-president already...

Keep reading (via Memeorandum).

Previously, "Donald Trump to Visit Mexico to Meet with President Enrique Peña Nieto."

ADDED: Still more at Instapundit.

Deal of the Day: Samsung Virtual Reality Gear

At Amazon, Samsung Gear VR - Virtual Reality Headset (U.S. Version with Warranty).

Also, Save on Skechers Shoes.

More, Apple EarPods 827 In-Ear Stereo Headphones with Remote and Mic - White.

Plus, KIND Bars, Dark Chocolate Nuts & Sea Salt, Gluten Free, 1.4 Ounce Bars, 12 Count.

BONUS: John Prados, Storm Over Leyte: The Philippine Invasion and the Destruction of the Japanese Navy.

Islamic State's Abu Muhammad al-Adnani Killed in Syria (VIDEO)

Holly Williams reports, for CBS This Morning:

Renée Zellweger Talks About Her Hollywood Comeback in 'Bridget Jones's Baby'

I've been thinking about this. She supposedly had all that horrible plastic surgery, but she looks pretty good from what I can tell, in all the ads for the movie.

I'm glad, because I like the lady.

At London's Daily Mail, "Renée Zellweger opens up about her Hollywood comeback in Bridget Jones’s Baby."

Teri Nichols, LAUSD Teacher's Assistant, Accused of Smuggling Cell Phones, Heroin to Death Row Inmate (VIDEO)

She's black.

Teri Nichols, the accused TA, is black.

This is exactly the kind of assistive behavior among girlfriends and baby moms depicted in Alice Goffman's riveting book, On the Run: Fugitive Life in an American City.

Watch, at CBS News 2 Los Angeles, "LAUSD Teacher's Assistant Accused of Smuggling Cell Phones, Heroin to Death Row Inmate."

Also at the LAist, "LAUSD Teacher Allegedly Smuggled Heroin to San Quentin Death Row Inmate."

Trump's 'Narrow Path' to Victory, at USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times 'Daybreak' Poll

Following-up from earlier, "Donald Trump Ahead by Three Points at USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times 'Daybreak' Poll."

At LAT, "Donald Trump still has a path to victory, but it's a tough one, USC/L.A. Times poll shows":

Although he trails in nearly all national surveys and polls of most battleground states, Donald Trump still has a potential route to victory, albeit a difficult one that would require him to coax many people who sat out the last election to vote this time around, the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll finds.

The existence of a bloc of disaffected voters large enough to potentially swing the election Trump’s way is the main finding from an analysis of the first eight weeks of the daily tracking poll.

Whether Trump can convert a significant number of those potential supporters into voters over the final two months of the presidential campaign could determine whether the election ends up as a close contest or a runaway for Hillary Clinton.

That group of potential voters also helps explain why the Daybreak poll’s results have consistently been more favorable to Trump than other major surveys.

The key group driving that result are people who sat out the 2012 election but say they plan to vote this year. Trump, who’s due to give a major speech on immigration Wednesday, leads among them in the poll. He trails Clinton among those who voted four years ago or were too young to do so.

The design of the Daybreak poll means it reflects, more strongly than some other surveys, the views of those who didn’t vote before but say they will this year. As a result, the poll presents something of a best-case scenario for Trump — one in which he succeeds in getting large numbers of previous nonvoters to cast ballots for him.

Even that best case is a problematic one for the Republican nominee since he seldom does better than a tie in the poll’s results. For the last two weeks, even as most polls have shown Clinton with a significant edge over Trump, the Daybreak poll has shown the two candidates roughly even, trading narrow leads back and forth. The poll also shows that a large percentage of voters remain uncertain about their choice.

As of Tuesday morning, the poll showed Trump ahead 45%-42%, well within the margin of error.

Trump’s situation is even more challenging because of the difficulty of turning nonvoters into voters, a task for which Trump’s campaign may be especially ill-suited...

Keep reading.

The Irvine PTA Mom's Enemies

Following-up from the other day, "Irvine PTA Mom Busted With Ziploc Bag of Marijuana, Two EZY Dose Pill-Pouch Baggies, One With 11 Percocet Pills, Another With 29 Vicodin."

And from yesterday's Los Angeles Times front page, "The Power Couple."

Mardoqueo Sincal Jochola Killed in Vicious Black Thug 'Knockout Game' Attack in Philadelphia (VIDEO)

Following-up from yesterday, "Donald Trump Has Exposed the Hypocrisy of the Black Lives Matter Movement."

Trump should speak out against the brutal black thug violence against Hispanic immigrants. Oh boy, talk about putting leftist Democrats on defense.

At London's Daily Mail, "Latino immigrant dies after being sucker punched during 'knockout game' in Philadelphia."

And watch, at CBS News 3 Philadelphia:

Donald Trump Ahead by Three Points at USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times 'Daybreak' Poll

Well, last night I said the race was a dead heat.

Actually, tonight he's got a three-point lead, 45.1/42.3 percent.

At the USC Dornsife page.

Also, at LAT, "Where the presidential race stands today."

More at Breitbart, "LA Times Tracking Poll: Trump Captures Six Point Swing, Leads Clinton by Three."

Donald Trump to Visit Mexico to Meet with President Enrique Peña Nieto

This is great.

Trump continues to upend the news cycle.

And if it's a productive meeting, he could damage Hillary Clinton's momentum in the Hispanic community.

He's unpredictable and totally fearless. I like it.

At LAT, "Donald Trump headed to Mexico for meeting with Enrique Peña Nieto."

More at Memeorandum.

Trump will be making another "major address" tomorrow, on immigration.

It's highly anticipated. And it's going to be an interesting news day.

Donald Trump Has Exposed the Hypocrisy of the Black Lives Matter Movement

Donald Trump name-checked Heather Mac Donald a little while ago, while speaking in Everett, Washington.

He was giving a significant address on the crisis of the inner-cities. I like what I'm hearing. A lot.

In any case, here's Mac Donald's essay at WSJ, "Black Lives Matter to Donald Trump":

.@HMDatMI: Black Lives Matter to Donald Trump https://t.co/et4zT4PddM via #HeatherMacDonald

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) August 30, 2016

Hillary Clinton tried to tar Donald Trump as a racist last week by associating him with the “alt-right.” Yet it is Mr. Trump who has decried the loss of black life to violent crime—and has promptly been declared biased for doing so. Whether intentionally or not, Mr. Trump has exposed the hypocrisy of the Black Lives Matter movement and its allies.

Speaking in West Bend, Wis., on Aug. 16, only days after the recent riots in Milwaukee, Mr. Trump observed that during “the last 72 hours . . . another nine were killed in Chicago and another 46 were wounded.” The victims, as in other cities with rising crime, were overwhelmingly black.

Bringing safety to inner-city residents should be a top presidential priority, Mr. Trump said: “Our job is to make life more comfortable for the African-American parent who wants their kids to be able to safely walk the streets and walk to school. Or the senior citizen waiting for a bus. Or the young child walking home from school.” Mr. Trump promised to restore law and order “for the sake of all, but most especially for the sake of those living in the affected communities.”

The reaction was swift. The progressive website Crooks and Liars deemed Mr. Trump’s speech a “mashup of Hitler and George Wallace.” On CNN the activist and former Obama adviser Van Jones called it “despicable” and “shocking in its divisiveness.” Historian Josh Zeitz told USA Today that “the term law and order in modern American politics is, ipso facto, a racially tinged term.”

Mr. Trump’s acceptance speech in July at the Republican National Convention provoked similar dismay. “Young Americans in Baltimore, in Chicago, in Detroit, in Ferguson,” he said, have “the same right to live out their dreams as any other child in America.”

This defense of black children was too much for Alicia Garza, a co-founder of the Black Lives Matter movement. “The terrifying vision that Donald J. Trump is putting forward casts him alongside some of the worst fascists in history,” Ms. Garza said. The executive director of the Advancement Project, Judith Browne Dianis, complained that “the speech lends itself to be interpreted as isolating and scapegoating of communities of color.” Political commentator Sally Kohn wrote in Time that Mr. Trump “has basically recycled Richard Nixon’s version of dog whistle racism by insisting he is the ‘law and order candidate’—implicitly protecting White America.”

Why this frenzied effort to demonize Mr. Trump for addressing the heightened violence in inner cities? Because the Republican nominee has also correctly identified its cause: the false “narrative of cops as a racist force in our society,” as he put it in Wisconsin...

RTWT.

Mac Donald's book is here, The War on Cops: How the New Attack on Law and Order Makes Everyone Less Safe.

Nima Sanandaji, Debunking Utopia

What a timely book.

Bernie Sanders supporters said they were looking at "Scandinavia," thinking "that's where we [America] ought to be going..."

But see Nima Sanandaji's new book, Debunking Utopia: Exposing the Myth of Nordic Socialism.

Conservatives on Campus Should Keep Their Cool

Here's Professor Matthew Woessner, for Prager University:

Lauren Southern's Urgent Message for Young Women (VIDEO)

Via Rebel Media:

Huma Abedin Might Be Liability for Hillary Clinton

Following-up from yesterday, "Anthony Weiner and Huma Abedin to Separate."

At the Los Angeles Times, "Huma Abedin is Hillary Clinton's closest aide, and now she might be a liability":

Before any of former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner’s creepy sexting even came to light, his wife had attracted unwanted attention for her boss, Hillary Clinton.

Huma Abedin is a favorite target of Republicans. They accuse her of being a Saudi spy, a self-dealing insider, the mastermind behind a plot to hide Clinton’s email.

But the noise around Abedin was so often distorted by conspiracy theories that the public seemed to tune it out — until Weiner suddenly appeared back in the spotlight with the revelation of his most disturbing Twitter message yet: an illicit photo in which his son was a prop, sent privately to another woman. Abedin announced Monday that she and Weiner would separate.

Now, Clinton’s campaign finds itself unable to duck unwanted attention drawn to Abedin, a 40-year-old aide closer to Clinton than anyone else on her payroll...

Good.

Maybe Ms. Huma will get the full public vetting she so richly deserves, especially her ties to Islamic jihad.

Keep reading.

Is Monmouth University Poll an Outlier?

Monnouth's poll is here.

And the discussion at Politico, "Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 7 points."

At one point Monmouth had Clinton up by 12 points, and she's still up more than half that in this latest survey. Are they consistently oversampling Democrats? Is the poll a fraudulent outlier?

Check Hot Air for a nice analysis, "And now a new national poll shows the race tightening."

I think the race is tighter. Indeed, I think it's a dead heat national horse race at the moment, and lots of good solid polling organizations are generating those numbers. See from Sunday, "Latest Morning Consult Poll Has Hillary Clinton Up 43 to 40 Percent Over Donald Trump."

Yesterday the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times 'Daybreak' poll had Trump up over Clinton 44.0/43.6. It's a dead heat.

And even the latest UPI presidential tracker has Clinton up by just 3 points, "UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton regains lead over Donald Trump."

Of course, I remember what happened in 2012, and most of these polls may well be perfectly accurate. We'll see. As I always say. We'll see.

Joe Hicks, 1941 - 2016

I just saw him on Fox News last week. He looked perfectly fine.

From Ed Driscoll, at Instapundit, "ROGER SIMON: RIP JOE HICKS—GREAT MAN OF HIS TIMES."

I was interviewed by Joe Hicks, along with Bill Whittle, on PJTV right before the 2008 election. I'd just published, "Obama's Fundraising Fraud."

I really admired him. R.I.P.

Anthony Weiner and Huma Abedin to Separate

I read this earlier today, at the New York Times, "Anthony Weiner and Huma Abedin to Separate After His Latest Sexting Scandal."


Also at Memeorandum.

Carlos Danger's getting kicked to the curb.

And see Twitchy, "Bad omen? You bet! No wonder Anthony Weiner and Huma couldn’t make it work."

Previously Anthony Weiner blogging is here.