Saturday, March 1, 2014

U.S. Has Few Options in #Ukraine

Here's the analysis at the front-page of this morning's Wall Street Journal, "Obama Has Few Options to Challenge Russia on Ukraine: U.S. Administration Shifts to Sterner Tone With Moscow, Voicing Concern on Military Moves" (via Google):

WASHINGTON—Until Friday, the American approach to Ukraine's mounting crisis was designed explicitly to show the U.S. didn't view this as a return of Cold War frictions, but as an opportunity to work with Moscow to stabilize a former Soviet state.

That changed late in the day when President Barack Obama bluntly warned Russia against intervening in Ukraine, a stark indication that old tensions are seeping back into the relationship.

"We are now deeply concerned about military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine," Mr. Obama said. "Just days after the world came to Sochi for the Olympic Games, it would invite the condemnation of nations around the world."

The statement, delivered in a rare late-afternoon appearance at the White House press room, was an indication of the mounting concern in Washington that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be prepared to take drastic steps to keep Ukraine in Moscow's orbit. It sent a message that Mr. Putin should be under no illusions about the damage such steps would wreak.

The White House had been cautious in its comments on Ukraine. Since Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's overthrow a week ago, the administration avoided casting the revolution there as a victory for the West.

Mr. Obama's latest statements, like those of other top U.S. officials this week, lacked any indication of what the U.S. would do in response to a Russian military incursion. The warnings did, however, underscore the limited range of available options.

The U.S. has started talks with European partners about what steps they could take in response to Russian actions in Ukraine, including the possibility of the U.S. and its European allies boycotting the upcoming Group of Eight meeting in Sochi, according to U.S. officials.

The U.S. is also considering withholding some trade and commercial benefits which the Russians have been seeking. Russia currently has a team in Washington to discuss deepening trade and commercial ties.

The George W. Bush administration didn't move to enact sanctions against Moscow in 2008 after Russian tank columns annexed territories in the Western-leaning former Soviet republic of Georgia.

Washington increased financial aid to Georgia in the aftermath and tried to accelerate its membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union.

European officials are in a similar bind. They are seeking to work with Russia on Ukraine even when they appear to be pursuing conflicting objectives. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy spoke with Mr. Putin Friday afternoon and discussed the "financial and security situation" in Ukraine, the EU said.

Still, a growing number of U.S. lawmakers and American allies said this week that Mr. Obama needs to do more to directly challenge Mr. Putin and acknowledge that the Kremlin's leader isn't an American partner.

Not doing so, they said, could lead the Kremlin to take even more aggressive steps to try and shape the future in Ukraine. It also could lead Russia to continue challenging U.S. interests in Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

"Someone needs to tell [the administration] the restart button is jammed," said a senior Arab official who's involved in Syria and Iran diplomacy. "Even on a good day—without Ukraine, Syria, Georgia, or Iran—the Russians won't play ball with you."
More at the link.

And previously, "Charles Krauthammer: Obama Tells the World We Aren't Going to Do Anything About Invasion of #Ukraine."

Look, Putin could fully annex Ukraine, like Hitler's Anschluss of Austria in 1938, and the U.S. under this administration would do virtually nothing to stop him. The options are extremely limited, indeed. But the force of presidential personality here is totally lacking. We're miles from willing to "pay any price, bear any burden" to guarantee the survival of Ukraine's liberty. It's pretty sad, actually.

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