Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Donald Trump Tops Latest Suffolk University/USA Today Poll of GOP Presidential Field

Well, Donald Trump hasn't peaked yet, but any means.

Here, "Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll Shows Trump on Top with GOP Voters Nationwide":
Republican businessman Donald Trump is on a roll with likely GOP presidential primary voters, according to a Suffolk University/USA TODAY national poll.

Among voters who identify either as Republicans or independents and who plan to vote in their states’ Republican primaries or caucuses, 17 percent named Trump as their first choice for the GOP nomination in the 2016 presidential race.

Trump was followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (14 percent), Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (8 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (6 percent), Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (5 percent), retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (4 percent), Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (4 percent), former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (4 percent) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (3 percent). Receiving less than 2 percent each were former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, and former New York Gov. George Pataki.

A significant 30 percent of the Republican electorate remains undecided about whom they will support among a crowded field of candidates.

“Trump is making daily headlines in advance of the primary season,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “This has vaulted him to the top of the pack on the backs of conservative voters. But when you expand the electoral pool to include Democrats and independents that potency dissipates.”

Among self-identified conservative or very conservative Republican likely voters, Trump led Bush 17 percent to 11 percent, with all other candidates in single digits. However, among voters of all parties, Trump’s negatives were the highest, at 61 percent.
Look, how Trump fares against the potential Democrat nominee at this point doesn't matter. What matters is how well he's doing among Republican party primary voters, and so far his lead keeps growing. It's a problem for the GOP establishment. One way or another Trump's going to upend the normal patterns of party support, and if in the end he doesn't take the nomination he's hinted at running an outside insurgent independent campaign. Ross Perot won 20 percent in 1992, helping elect Bill Clinton to office. But, Perot screwed up by dropping out of the race, only to reenter at the end of summer, perhaps costing him enough votes to split the parties and win the presidency. That's a scenario that worrisome not just for the Republicans, but for the Democrats as well. And it's healthy for the democracy.

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