At WSJ, "Donald Trump’s Enduring Lead Shows 2016 Not a 2012 Replay":
Ever since Donald Trump gained altitude as a presidential candidate, experienced political hands have predicted that his balloon would soon pop.Still more. And click through for the graphics.
As evidence, they cite the 2012 primary. Republicans flirted with a rotating cast of candidates from outside the political mainstream before settling on Mitt Romney, a member of the party’s establishment wing.
But polling now says that a different story is unfolding this time around.
The Republican electorate seems much more unsettled than in 2012, suggesting a more difficult path for this cycle’s set of establishment candidates. Three polling measures show how different the 2016 cycle is from 2012.
To being with, Donald Trump has spent more days leading the Republican presidential field than did any of Romney’s challengers in 2012.
That’s one sign of how strong the hunger is among Republicans this year for a nontraditional candidate. Here’s another: Neither the first- nor the second-place spot in national polls is held by an establishment candidate.
he top two slots belong to Mr. Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Jeb Bush is a fairly distant third in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.
In 2012, Mr. Romney faced repeated challenges from competitors, but throughout the campaign he was never lower than second in the RCP average. There was a distinct pattern to the 2012 numbers, with Mr. Romney in either first place or in second, with a new competitor rising or falling around him. That dynamic so far isn’t being repeated this year.
A third trend that marks 2016 as different from the last campaign: Establishment candidates have fallen to single-digit support in national polls...
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