Russia's Game Plan in Syria Is Simple

From Julia Ioffe, at Foreign Policy, "Stick it to the Americans":

In Monday’s press briefing, coming after a weekend in which Moscow increased its military footprint in Syria seemingly exponentially, White House press secretary Josh Earnest declared that the administration had come no closer to deciphering Moscow’s motives for its stepped-up presence in the area.

The truth is Russia’s motives are not that hard to divine.

The most proximate reason is the fact that Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s embattled, murderous leader, has been losing territory at a rapid pace. In July, he made a rare announcement admitting losses and blaming them on a shortage of manpower. “We are not collapsing,” he said, which is not something regimes that are not collapsing often have to proclaim publicly. Allowing Assad to continue on the same losing trajectory is anathema to Moscow. “Bashar al-Assad is losing; he’s losing one town after another,” said Georgy Mirsky, a vintage Russian Arabist who teaches Middle Eastern conflicts at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. “If you don’t help Assad, he’ll lose and then the whole world will say Putin lost.” Putin placed his bet on Assad four years ago, Mirsky said, and he hasn’t wavered since. Now he has become a prisoner to that bet and to a certain honor-bound logic. “If you make a bet on a horse and the horse comes in last, then how does it look?” Mirsky explained. “It looks like you don’t understand anything. You will be seen as a loser.”

Russia has always supported Assad, but that support now seems to be inadequate to stanch the bleeding. To avoid looking like a loser who bet on the wrong horse — which, incidentally, Putin has done a lot of in the Middle East — Putin simply has to put more on the scale to maintain the same equilibrium.

Why prop up Assad? Some commentators have pointed to what they see as a burgeoning Russian influence in the region, but many in Moscow see it differently. This talk is “slightly exaggerated,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, who is no Kremlin critic. “Russia doesn’t have many opportunities in the region, and Syria is a unique case.” Russia, he said, is simply stepping into the void left behind by American waffling and a lack of clarity in its Syria policy. “The growth of Russian influence is directly proportional to the decline of American influence in the region,” Lukyanov explained. “The United States lost its mission so maybe the other regional powers see Russia as bad and unpleasant, but they also see that it acts clearly and consistently.” And yet, Lukyanov said, Russia’s expanded horizon for action in the region “is all thanks to Syria. It all starts and ends in Syria.”

Other, more hard-line voices in Moscow are gloating over this role reversal, however exaggerated or mild...

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