See, "TRUMP AND CRUZ DEADLOCKED, WITH RUBIO A DISTANT THIRD, LORAS COLLEGE POLL FINDS" (via Jennifer Jacobs):
With 11 days to go before the 2016 Iowa Caucuses, real estate mogul Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are deadlocked at the top of the latest Loras College Poll. The two candidates have distanced themselves from the rest of the field, with Florida Senator Marco Rubio the only other candidate receiving double-digit support among likely Republican caucus voters. The statewide live-caller poll was conducted Jan. 13-18. Trump and Cruz were also at the top of the December Loras Poll.More.
As the precinct caucuses approach on Feb. 1, the campaigning is reaching a fevered pitch. “The Trump versus Cruz dynamic has defined the Republican race in the past couple of weeks. We are certainly seeing that here in Iowa,” said Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D, associate professor of politics and director of the Loras College Poll. “Iowa voters have surprised in the past, so it is always wise to watch for out for a last-minute push by someone from back in the field. Senator Rubio is the one most within striking distance at the moment, and 10 days is something of an eternity in caucus politics.”
Iowa Governor Terry Branstad made headlines with his comment Wednesday that he “think[s] it would be a big mistake for Iowa to support him.” The governor focused on Cruz’s opposition to ethanol as a key reason for concern.
“Governor Branstad’s comments were noteworthy as a high profile intervention into the race, and that isn’t something you usually see. It will be interesting find out how voters respond to this last minute pitch by the state’s influential and popular GOP governor,” Budzisz said...
If these results are accurate, that means the campaign ground games are going to be decisive. I have no clue what'll happen, frankly. Again, Donald Trump's supposed to be mobilizing all kinds of new participants, so his campaign could blow traditional expectations out of the water.
We'll see. We'll see.