Midterm Calculus: The Economy Elects Presidents. Presidents Elect Congress

A neat little essay, from UCLA political scientist Lynn Vavreck, at the New York Times:

Instead of rewarding or punishing the incumbent president for his handling of the nation’s economy, in midterm years voters address the president more directly — by penalizing his party members, on average, but also by calibrating that punishment based on how the president is doing his job. Average approval ratings of the way the president is “handling the job” explain more of the variation in seat loss than the economic indicators.

And it appears as if the approval rating is made up of more things than just the economy. Where voters jump on the winning bandwagon in the presidential election years, they put a finger in the wind to measure the political atmosphere in the midterms. The happier people are with how things are going generally, the less likely they are to punish members of the president’s party.