Senate Control Comes Down to Eight Races

Four days away now.

It's going to be a bloodbath.

At the Wall Street Journal, "Overall Climate Continues to Favor Republicans in Costly Battle":

The electoral math remains encouraging for the GOP. Republicans are expected to win Democratic seats easily in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, where long-serving incumbents are retiring or already have left. Polls also give Republican Rep. Tom Cotton a comfortable lead in his bid to unseat Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) an edge in his re-election fight.

If they fall as expected, those races would give Republicans four of the six seats they need to pick up for a Senate majority.

From there, Republicans need to win four races of the remaining eight. The party currently has a lead in five of the eight in the aggregation of public polls by the nonpartisan website Real Clear Politics. Still, many are within the margin of error.

“We have a lot of paths to get to the majority,” Mr. Collins said [Rob Collins, executive director of the Republicans’ Senate campaign arm].

Among these remaining races, polls show Republicans with consistent but narrow leads in Alaska and Colorado. The same is true for Democrats in New Hampshire and North Carolina.

Georgia and Louisiana, meanwhile, seem headed toward runoffs, casting doubt on whether the outcome will be known before Georgia would hold its second round of voting on Jan. 6. In Kansas, the GOP could hold the seat even if Republican Sen. Pat Roberts loses, as his main opponent, independent Greg Orman, hasn’t said which party he would align with if elected.

Both sides agree that Iowa remains the closest race in the country. Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst continues to run neck-and-neck with Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in a state President Barack Obama carried by nearly six percentage points.

Republicans have invested more money than in prior midterm elections to mobilize voters, and GOP officials point to big gains over prior cycles in the early vote in Iowa as evidence that those efforts are succeeding. But many privately fret that some public-opinion surveys undercount Democratic voters because two critical constituencies—young people and minorities—are tougher for pollsters and campaigns to reach than traditional Republican voters.

More.

Check RCP here.