Donald Trump Campaign Lags in Mobilizing Iowa Caucus Voters

Well, Trump's running an unconventional campaign, but if mobilizing voters at the base is the be-all-end-all of Iowa caucus politics, we're in for an ultimate test.

At the New York Times:

DES MOINES — Donald J. Trump has dominated much of this political season, excited an often-ignored part of the electorate, filled huge arenas with followers and upended the rules of how modern campaigns are run.

But now he faces an urgent question: Can he actually win crucial early contest states?

Translating a personality-driven campaign to the voting booth is no easy feat, especially for a candidate who has never run before.

But here in the state with the first nominating contest, about six weeks away, Mr. Trump has fallen behind in the nuts and bolts of organizing. A loss in Iowa for Mr. Trump, where he has devoted the most resources of his campaign, could imperil his leads in the next two nominating states, New Hampshire and South Carolina, where his get-out-the-vote organizations are even less robust.

A successful ground game is crucial in Iowa because of the state’s complicated method of caucus voting, but the Trump campaign has lagged in reaching some of its own benchmarks.

Mr. Trump’s Iowa director predicted that he would recruit a leader for each of the state’s 1,681 Republican precincts by Thanksgiving. Instead, the first major training session for precinct leaders, heavily promoted in emails and conference calls, drew only about 80 people to West Des Moines last weekend, with about 50 participating online.

Some of Mr. Trump’s Republican rivals have spent months calling and knocking on doors to identify potential supporters to draw them out to caucuses, but Mr. Trump does not appear to have invested in this crucial “voter ID” strategy until recently.

The Trump campaign hopes to attract a surge of independents and disaffected Democrats on caucus night, but the latest data from the Iowa secretary of state show no significant growth in Republican registrations.

Interviews in Iowa with Mr. Trump’s campaign workers, his volunteers and dozens of attendees at his rallies over two months, as well as observations of voter outreach, conference calls and confidential training sessions, indicate that Mr. Trump’s support in the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses may fall short of his poll numbers in the state. He is now trading the lead position with Senator Ted Cruz of Texas....

If you've noticed, a lot of political commentators, especially movement conservatives, have spoken with absolute certainty that Trump wont' be the nominee. If that proves true, it'll be because of grassroots organization issues like this. Remember, Barack Obama won Iowa in 2008, largely on the strength of youth mobilization through new media (which at that time was Faceback and Obama's own innovative campaign website, BarackObama.com).

And the Times piece in fact underestimates the impact of a Trump loss in Iowa. It won't just hurt him organizationally, or in terms of primary polling. Trump's momentum is sustained by the illusion of insurmountable victory --- he just keeps rising in the polls like the Energizer bunny on steroids. If he loses in Iowa, it will be the most crushing blow egotistically. He won't be able to make a bunch of funny faces and wave his hands frantically. It's going to be push comes to shove.

In any case, more at the link.