Tuesday, August 2, 2016

The Left's 'Khantroversy' Has Had No Effect on Presidential Race in Battleground Pennsylvania

I first checked Ohio, which is basically tied according to RCP's average of polls for the Buckeye state, although the last surveys there were conducted before the Democrat convention and the Khantroversy.

But battleground Pennsylvania was surveyed by Public Policy Polling from July 29 to 31, so it should show any damage to Donald Trump since the shameless hate-America left started exploiting Kizhr Khan last Thursday. But frankly, it's really nothing.

Hillary Clinton has a narrow lead in the Keystone state.

At PPP, "Clinton has narrow lead in Pennsylvania":
PPP's newest Pennsylvania poll, conducted entirely after the Democratic convention, finds Hillary Clinton with a narrow lead in the state. She's at 45% to 42% for Donald Trump, 4% for Gary Johnson, and 2% for Jill Stein. In a head to head match up just with Trump she leads by 4 points at 49-45.

Both polls- in Pennsylvania and nationally- PPP has done since the Democratic convention basically suggest that the race is back where it was in June. In late June we had Clinton up 46-42 on Trump head to head in Pennsylvania and 48-44 nationally. Clinton now leads 49-45 in Pennsylvania and 50-45 nationally so it appears everything that happened in the month of July had minimal effect on the margins between Clinton and Trump, it just helped move some undecided partisans skeptical of their party's nominees off the fence and toward the candidates they likely would have ended up with anyway.

Hillary Clinton's seen a decent improvement in her image over the last couple months in Pennsylvania. At the beginning of June she had a -21 net favorability rating in the state at 35/56, and that's now improved 8 points to -13 at 40/53. Like we saw nationally Trump's had an improvement in his numbers too but it's not as good as Clinton's- he was at -25 at 34/59 in early June and has now shifted up to -20 at 36/56 for a net 5 point improvement...
PPP didn't survey respondents about Khan, so that's one caveat.

But the poll has a heavy sample of Democrats (49 percent of respondents voted for Obama in 2012 and 41 for Romney).

Given the breakdown, and the enormous media coverage nationally over Khan, Hillary should be up by almost double-digits in Pennsylvania.

It's time for Trump to move on from this fake scandal and get back to hammering the Democrats and the economy and corruption.