Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Democrats Poised for Major Gains in Midterm Elections?

As I've noted, the president's party usually loses seats in Congress in midterm elections, and I don't expect this year to be much different.

Most of the polls you'll be seeing in the weeks ahead with be those measuring the "generic ballot," where respondents are asked their party preference for Congress, basically. Congressional elections aren't normally nationalized, however. It was the case in 1994 that Newt Gingrich, with his "Contract for America," turned the midterms on a referendum against the Democrats, with a mandate for ambitious policy-driven G.O.P government.

The Democrats don't have anything like that going this year, except anti-Trump hysteria.

My guess is the Dems will flip the House, probably by 20 seats or more. I'm skeptical they'll take the Senate, though, and I think Senate races will better reflect national trends, especially things like the politics of the Supreme Court (and the stupid allegations against Brett Kavanaugh).

In any case, at the Los Angeles Times, "With growing support from women, Democrats poised for major gains in midterm, new poll shows":
Boosted by growing support among suburban women and widespread antipathy toward President Trump, Democrats approach the midterm election poised to make major gains nationwide, a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll shows.

Democrats had a 14-point margin, 55% to 41%, when likely voters were asked which party’s candidate they would cast a ballot for if the election were held now. If that advantage holds up until election day, just less than six weeks away, it would almost surely be large enough to sweep a Democratic majority into the House.

Voters also oppose Republicans on a number of major issues. But overriding all of them is the president, whose outsized personality has dominated the nation’s news since he declared his candidacy more than three years ago.

Roughly 3 out of 4 likely voters said they saw their vote this fall as an opportunity to express a view of Trump. For many, that view is negative: Those saying they planned to register opposition outnumbered Trump supporters, 45% to 29%.

Likely voters disapprove of Trump’s overall performance in office by 57% to 39%, the poll found. Almost half of likely voters, 49%, said they “strongly” disapprove, while just under one-quarter, 24%, strongly approve.

Especially notable are the views of women, whose preferences have expanded the Democratic edge since a USC Dornsife poll surveyed most of the same voters this summer.

In the summer, men were closely divided between the two parties; they remain so now. But women, who already leaned significantly toward the Democrats, have shifted further in their direction, widening a large gender gap. The poll found women now favor the Democrats by 28 percentage points, 62% to 34%, among likely voters.

Three overlapping groups of female voters who have long been important for Republicans have moved away from the party: suburban residents, married white women and white women without college degrees.

Democrats enjoy a 61%-35% edge among suburban women, the poll found — a margin that has grown by 9 points since the summer. Democrats have narrowed the gap with Republicans among married white women, long a mainstay of the GOP, who now favor Republicans by a narrow 51% to 46%.

Those numbers help explain why suburban congressional districts long held by Republicans — from Orange County and Santa Clarita to the suburbs of Dallas and Houston and east to suburban Philadelphia — have become key targets in Democrats’ effort to retake control of the House.

A similar pattern holds among white women who did not graduate from college. Blue-collar white women gave Trump a crucial margin of support in 2016. A majority continues to support Republicans — by 56% to 39% — but since the summer, Democrats have cut their deficit with that group by a third.

The poll was largely completed before accusations of sexual misconduct against Judge Brent Kavanaugh, Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court, began dominating the news. Many political professionals in both parties think that controversy could further alienate women from the GOP...
Oh, the allegations against Kavanaugh are going to have an effect, I think, although it remains to be seen in which directions. Some "Never Trump" types on Twitter are apparently revolted by this radical leftist anti-Kavanaugh circus, and if that's true, normal antipathy to Trump among moderates might be outweighed by disgust with the evil Democrats.

We'll see, in any case.

Still more at the link.


MMinWA said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.