Big Oil Companies Are Shifting Their Focus Back to the West

A great piece.

At Wall Street Journal, "Big Oil Heads Back Home":

Big Oil is redrawing the energy map.

For decades, its main stomping grounds were in the developing world—exotic locales like the Persian Gulf and the desert sands of North Africa, the Niger Delta and the Caspian Sea. But in recent years, that geographical focus has undergone a radical change. Western energy giants are increasingly hunting for supplies in rich, developed countries—a shift that could have profound implications for the industry, global politics and consumers.

Driving the change is the boom in unconventionals—the tough kinds of hydrocarbons like shale gas and oil sands that were once considered too difficult and expensive to extract and are now being exploited on an unprecedented scale from Australia to Canada.

The U.S. is at the forefront of the unconventionals revolution. By 2020, shale sources will make up about a third of total U.S. oil and gas production, according to PFC Energy, a Washington-based consultancy. By that time, the U.S. will be the top global oil and gas producer, surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia, PFC predicts.

That could have far-reaching ramifications for the politics of oil, potentially shifting power away from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries toward the Western hemisphere. With more crude being produced in North America, there's less likelihood of Middle Eastern politics causing supply shocks that drive up gasoline prices. Consumers could also benefit from lower electricity prices, as power plants switch from coal to cheap and plentiful natural gas.

RTWT.

NewsBusted: 'Mitt Romney says that if elected, his first trip as president will be to Israel'

Via Theo Spark:

Luxury Car Crash in Japan

At Los Angeles Times, "Eight Ferraris smashed in luxury car crash on Japanese highway."

Video: Via Andrew Bolt.

The Climategate Sequel

From Steven Hayward, at Weekly Standard, "Climategate (Part II): A Sequel as Ugly as the Original":

The conventional wisdom about blockbuster movie sequels is that the second acts are seldom as good as the originals. The exceptions, like The Godfather: Part II or The Empire Strikes Back, succeed because they build a bigger backstory and add dimensions to the original characters. The sudden release last week of another 5,000 emails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of East Anglia University​—​ground zero of “Climategate I” in 2009​—​immediately raised the question of whether this would be one of those rare exceptions or Revenge of the Nerds II.

Before anyone had time to get very far into this vast archive, the climate campaigners were ready with their critical review: Nothing worth seeing here. Out of context! Cherry picking! “This is just trivia, it’s a diversion,” climate researcher Joel Smith told Politico. On the other side, Anthony Watts, proprietor of the invaluable WattsUpWithThat.com skeptic website, had the kind of memorable line fit for a movie poster. With a hat tip to the famous Seinfeld episode, Watts wrote: “They’re real, and they’re spectacular!” An extended review of this massive new cache will take months and could easily require a book-length treatment. But reading even a few dozen of the newly leaked emails makes clear that Watts and other longtime critics of the climate cabal are going to be vindicated.

Continue reading.

And see Hayward's piece from 2009, "Scientists Behaving Badly."

Prime Minister Mario Monti Calls Cabinet to Consider Emergency Austerity Measures

A stressful situation.

At New York Times, "Italy’s Leader Unveils Radical Austerity Measures."

The country’s new welfare minister, Elsa Fornero, a pension expert, choked with emotion at the news conference as she explained how Italians would be asked to sacrifice today in order to make the pension system less “arbitrary” and “more equitable” for future generations.

Also, at Business Week, "European Leaders Take Another Run at Fixing Crisis This Week." And Telegraph UK, "Merkel and Sarkozy meet for make-or-break euro rescue talks."

Why Herman Cain Flamed Out

From the editors at Wall Street Journal, "Herman Cain Departs" (via Google):

Herman Cain's departure from the Republican presidential race was inevitable, and the businessman did his family and party a service on Saturday in not prolonging the agony. Mr. Cain might have survived the accusations by assorted women if he had showed he was better prepared to be President.

The former pizza executive became a shooting star of a candidate based on his biography as a political outsider, his talents as a communicator, and his willingness to challenge the heart of Washington darkness that is the tax code. But as he rose in the polls, it became obvious that Mr. Cain was as surprised as anyone by his success. He had no organization and no real campaign plan. More troubling, he clearly hadn't thought hard enough about the challenges a President must confront.

Presidents don't have to be policy wonks, but they should be able to show more than a passing acquaintance with the major issues of the day. Mr. Cain showed that he understands how an economy works, but on foreign policy in particular he seemed almost dismissive of knowing too much, or very much at all. This was especially damaging in a year when GOP voters are looking for a nominee who can go 10 rounds with President Obama...

More at WSJ.

Also, at Legal Insurrection, "Herman Cain did not just fall, he was pushed."

Iranian Officials Claim Possession of American UAV

It's not "shot down," as some reports indicated.

See Los Angeles Times, "Iran says its military has U.S. drone in its possession."

What's So Awful About the 1%?

From Bradley Schiller, at Los Angeles Times:

Occupy Wall Street has said it's the 99% of 'us' against the 1% of 'them.' But many of 'them' started out like 'us' and have brought us great innovations that we embrace.

The class war is on. It's the 99% of "us" versus the 1% of "them."

In the rhetoric of this war, we are fighting the 1% because they possess most of the nation's wealth, bankroll their handpicked political candidates, control the banks and get million-dollar paychecks and billion-dollar bailouts; yet they don't pay enough taxes or invest their wealth in creating American jobs. They're the "millionaires and billionaires" President Obama has called out as needing to pony up more for progressive reforms of our healthcare, banking, tax and political systems. They are the enemy of "us" — the 99% who toil at low-wage jobs, hold underwater mortgages, face foreclosures, suffer recurrent and protracted job layoffs and plant closings, and yet pay our fair share of taxes.

But there's a flaw in this strategy. The Occupy Wall Street movement envisions the 1% as a monolithic cadre of entrenched billionaires who have a firm and self-serving grip on all the levers of the economy. But a closer look at that elite group reveals how untrue that perspective is.

Forbes magazine compiles a list of the richest 400 Americans every year. To get on that list, you must have at least $1 billion of wealth. They are the creme de la creme of the 1% — indeed, the top 0.0000013% (!) of Americans. So who are these dastardly people?

The late Steve Jobs was in that elite club this year. In his earlier days, Jobs would have been camped out with the OWS crowd, probably passing around a joint. Should we count him as one of "us" or one of "them"? (And you can't use your iPhone or iPad to vote "them.")

Then there's 27-year old Mark [Zuckerberg] (No. 14 on the Forbes list), whose Facebook innovation enables the OWS movement to communicate so easily. He and five other Facebook entrepreneurs just joined the Forbes 400 this year.

We'd also quickly recognize among "them" Sergey Brin, Larry Page and Eric Schmidt, who became billionaires developing Google. And, as they are sipping a latte to keep warm, the OWS campers should also reflect on whether Howard Schultz, Starbucks' founder and No. 330 on the Forbes list, is with "us" or "them."

Not every member of the Forbes 400 is a high-tech folk hero. There is a lot of inherited wealth on that list too (the Mars, Walton, Cargill and Ford dynasties). But 70% of the Forbes elite are self-made billionaires. Those entrepreneurial successes include not just the names behind Facebook, Google, Apple and Starbucks but also EBay (Meg Whitman, Pierre Omidyar), Yahoo (Jerry Yang), Nike (Phil Knight), AOL (Steve Case), Amazon (Jeff Bezos), Subway sandwiches (Peter Buck, Fred DeLuca), "Star Wars" (George Lucas) and even Beanie Babies (Ty Warner). Does anyone doubt that these members of the reviled 1% have enriched the country in significant ways?

Even more to the point is that all of these club-400 elites were once just like "us." Jobs worked on the first Apple computer in a garage on a shoestring budget. He had vision, not wealth, to propel him to fame and fortune. Oprah Winfrey (No. 139) rose from poverty to TV queen through determination, hard work and a couple of lucky breaks. Even Warren Buffett, No. 2 on the Forbes list, started out looking very much like just another hardworking middle-class kid with good Midwestern values.

I checked out the Forbes 400 earlier and was thinking pretty much the same thing, especially since a bunch of those on the list are Democrats.

'Misty Mountain Hop'

Led Zeppelin:

Walkin' in the park just the other day, baby,
What do you, what do you think I saw?
Crowds of people sittin' on the grass with flowers in their hair said,
"Hey, Boy, do you wanna score?"
And you know how it is.
I really don't know what time it was, woh, oh,oh
so I asked them if I could stay a while.

I didn't notice but it had got very dark and I was really
Really out of my mind.
Just then a policeman stepped up to me and asked us, said, "Please,hey,
would we care to all get in line, Get in line."
Well, you know, they asked us to stay for tea and have some fun; Oh, oh,oh.
he said that his friends would all drop by, ooh.

Why don't you take a good look at yourself and describe what you see,
and baby, baby, baby, do you like it?
There you sit, sitting spare like a book on a shelf rustin',
ah, not trying to fight it.
You really don't care if they're comin'; oh, oh,
I know that it's all a state of mind.

If you go down in the streets today, baby, you better,
you better open your eyes. WOAH WOAH YEAH
Folk down there really don't care, really don't care, don't care , really don't , which, which way the pressure lies,
so I've decided what I'm gonna do now.
So I'm packing my bags for the Misty Mountains
where the spirits go now,
over the hills where the spirits fly.
I really don't know.

Save the U.S. Postal Service!

Last week we were studying bureaucracies in my American government course. We discuss the various types of bureaucratic organizations, including government corporations. There's really not that many, but the United States Postal Service is certainly the most prominent. As I usually do, I stop while discussing the Post Office to see how students like it. Do they mail letters? Do the ship packages? And if they do, how do they like the service? Of course, the Post Office is on the way out --- or at least, the Post Office that we grew up with, the one that guaranteed mail delivery whether rain, sleet or snow. I hardly check the mail anymore, except to get magazines and academic journals. And some of the household bills still come by mail, and we need to check for those. Other than that, it's mostly junk.

In any case, I looked for a recent article during one of my classes the other day, and didn't really see anything. It was mostly local news stories about communities struggling to keep open their local branches. But it turns out the New York Times has a new article on the Post Office, and perhaps I can use it in class, picking up where we left off last week. See, "The Junking of the Postal Service":

A FEW weeks ago a petition appeared next to the mailboxes in my building’s lobby in Upper Manhattan. It read: “Save Saturday Delivery! ... Save the U.S. Postal Service!” Over the next 24 hours signatures poured onto the sheet of paper.

I will not say whether I signed. But I will tell you what arrived in my mailbox that Saturday: two credit card offers; a Linen Source catalog for someone who used to live in my apartment; a notice of a sale on running shoes; some coupons for 10 percent off on pizza delivery; three promotional letters about colleges; and a bank letter about changing terms on my son’s high-school checking account for 2012.

As junk mail multiplies and the United States Postal Service struggles for financial survival, experts are increasingly asking the question, do Americans need Saturday mail delivery ... or daily mail delivery ... or a state-run postal service at all? Should mail be a guaranteed government service — like primary education — because it is essential to our well-being? Or has this once hallowed institution, like pay phones, outlived its utility?

Continue reading.

There is a case for continuing the Postal Service, but it'll be drastically changed from earlier eras.

Sunday Cartoons

At Flopping Aces, "Sunday Funnies."

See also Reaganite Republican, "Reaganite's Sunday Funnies."

Michele Bachmann: Occupy Movement Wants Others to 'Pay For Their Stuff'

CNN has the full story, "Bachmann: Tea Party will ‘come home’ to my campaign."

But I like this part, starting just before 6:00 minutes:

The strength is not with Occupy Wall Street. If you go to the essence of what Occupy Wall Street stands for, it's having other people pay for their stuff.

'An America Fast Vanishing, Often Overlooked and Sometimes Openly Despised'

See Fay Voshell, at American Thinker, "A Kentucky Funeral":

Glenn Roland Voshell was buried on a hill on his Kentucky farm last week.

"We can still do that here in Kentucky," his wife Gayle said.
And so my brother was laid to rest on the land he loved.

His Amish neighbors volunteered horses and wagons to carry him to his final destination. The horses chuffed and snorted as they plodded up the hill with their cargo of grandchildren, who momentarily had forgotten the reason for their ride up the hill. As all little ones do, they seized the moment, laughing with pure joy over an unexpected hayride.

We adults trudged in silence behind the wagon loaded with Glenn's body as a kindly sun warmed our shoulders, a soft breeze blew across our faces, and the vaulted blue sky looked down. The jingling of harness hardware and the soft thud of the horses' hooves were the only sounds. A hawk wheeled overhead.

Continuing, and then...

I reflected on how miraculous this gathering was. Here was community -- family, neighbors, and church folk all bonded by love and Christian faith.

Here, gathered at my brother's funeral, was an America fast vanishing, often overlooked and sometimes openly despised. Here were works of the hands, works of the plow, and works of faith. Simple things. Profound things. Things of the heart. Things my brother loved.

Here, too, I thought, was the heart of our country. If it were to stop beating forever, the land would perish.

God, I prayed, don't let the heart stop beating.

Read it all, at the link.

Charles Blow Attacks Newt Gingrich's Imaginary War on Children

I predicted this the other day when I wrote:

Newt will be hammered as the right's public policy Ebenezer Scrooge who's also an epic hypocrite adulterer with the moral backbone of a snail.

And barely 24 hours later, here's Charles Blow with an attack on Newt at the New York Times, "Newt’s War on Poor Children":

Newt Gingrich has reached a new low, and that is hard for him to do.

Nearly two weeks after claiming that child labor laws are “truly stupid” and implying that poor children should be put to work as janitors in their schools, he now claims that poor children don’t understand work unless they’re doing something illegal.

On Thursday, at a campaign stop in Iowa, the former House speaker said, “Start with the following two facts: Really poor children in really poor neighborhoods have no habits of working and have nobody around them who works. So they literally have no habit of showing up on Monday. They have no habit of staying all day. They have no habit of ‘I do this and you give me cash’ unless it’s illegal.” (His second “fact” was that every first generational person he knew started work early.)

This statement isn’t only cruel and, broadly speaking, incorrect, it’s mind-numbingly tone-deaf at a time when poverty is rising in this country. He comes across as a callous Dickensian character in his attitude toward America’s most vulnerable — our poor children. This is the kind of statement that shines light on the soul of a man and shows how dark it is.

I've taken after Charles Blow before for his truly epic mendacity. But I had no idea I'd forecast this idiotic attack so accurately. Ebenzer Scrooge is, of course, the tight-fisted old meany in Charles Dickens's 1843 novel, A Christmas Carol. Being Christmas season that's the literary image that first came to me, but a variation of the Scrooge attack is inevitable if Newt manages to win the nomination. At that point I'll of course be putting aside any differences I might have with Gingrich. Indeed, I'll be bending over backwards for his victory over Barack Obama, who he has rightly hammered as "Legitimately and Authentically a Saul Alinsky Radical."

Meanwhile, check out this penetrating essay at William Jacobson's, "Don’t play the “baggage” game." And a key passage there:

The purest of personally pure candidates will be faulted for being a religious nut and not hip enough to be president, someone from the white bread 1950s. Policies advocating personal responsibility and empowerment will be portrayed as cruel and favoring the rich. Advocacy of treating people according to the content of their characters rather than the colors of their skin will be protrayed as racially insensitive or racist.

Exactly.

24 Hours on an Aircraft Carrier — USS Carl Vinson

This is so cool, via Theo Spark:

The Carl Vinson's Wikipedia page is here. And at ESPN, "Producer chronicles a typical 24 hours aboard the USS Carl Vinson."

Israel Pulls Ads Aimed at Expatriots

At Jerusalem Post, "PM cancels government campaign to entice expats home," and Telegraph UK, "Israel government scores own goal with US Jewish organisations."

Also at New York Times, "After American Jewish Outcry, Israel Ends Ad Campaign Aimed at Expatriates":

JERUSALEM — One video advertisement shows a Jewish elderly couple distraught that their Israeli granddaughter in the United States thinks Hanukkah is Christmas. Another shows a clueless American boyfriend who does not get why his Israeli expatriate girlfriend is saddened on Israel’s memorial day. A third shows a toddler calling “Daddy! Daddy!” to his napping Israeli expatriate father, who finally awakens when the child switches to Hebrew: “Abba!”

For many American Jews, the Israeli government-sponsored ads, intended to cajole Israelis living in the United States to come home, smacked of arrogance, ignorance and cultural disrespect of America. Jewish groups in the United States expressed outrage, saying they were causing a rift with American Jews who support Israel. On Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aborted the campaign.

The ads — short videos and billboard posters — were intended to touch the sensibilities of Israeli expatriates and tap into their national identity, according to the Ministry of Immigrant Absorption, which oversaw the campaign.

But critics said the ads implied that moving to America led to assimilation and an erosion of Jewish consciousness. The Jewish Federations of North America called them insulting. Abraham H. Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League, called the videos “heavy-handed, and even demeaning.”

Continue reading.

China's State-Led Model Showing Signs of Trouble

ICYMI, you might want to skim former SIEU chief Andy Stern's op-ed at the Wall Street Journal from earlier this week, "China's Superior Economic Model." I don't begrudge China's economic success, but I've never been one to fall head over heels for China's model, especially as a replacement for the American free-enterprise ideal. Stern's piece reminded me of the "Japan as Number One" school from the late-1980s and early-1990s. Back then I thought more reliance on industrial policy and governmental intervention might be a good thing. Then Japan collapse and by the end of the Clinton years the American economy was booming. Hardly anyone was championing the Japanese "developmental state" by that time. And thus, I mostly yawned when reading Andy Stern, and that was after a little chuckle, considering the former union boss was throwing his lot in with one the most murderous regimes in modern times.

In any case, the editors at Wall Street Journal throw some cold water on the Chinese economic system. See, "China's Hard Landing":

China is a poster child for the Austrian school of economics' theory of the business cycle. After undertaking the biggest stimulus program the world has ever seen in response to the global financial crisis, the country is drowning in unproductive investments financed with credit.

The government spent 15% of GDP largely on public works projects in inland regions, financed with loans from the state-owned banks. Investment as a share of GDP soared to 48.5% in 2010, and the M2 measure of money supply ballooned to 140% that of the U.S.

Now comes the hangover. The public works projects are winding down, unleashing a wave of unemployment and an uptick in social unrest. The banks' nonperforming loans are rising, and local governments are insolvent. The country is littered with luxurious county government offices, ghost cities of empty apartment blocks, unsafe high-speed rail lines and crumbling highways to nowhere.

One effect of negative real interest rates was a nationwide bubble in private housing, with the average price of an urban apartment reaching eight times the average annual income. Real estate is the most popular investment for the wealthy, according to a central bank survey in September. Millions of luxury apartments are vacant, even as there is a shortage of affordable housing for the poor....

There is no easy way to avoid the bust that is coming. The silver lining is that China's increasingly state-led growth model will be discredited, and a debate will begin on restarting the reforms that stalled in the mid-2000s. A financial sector that allocates credit based on politics rather than price signals led China into this mess. Popular pressure to dismantle crony capitalism is building, and the Communist Party would be wise to get in front of it while it can.

Supporters Shocked by Herman Cain's Exit

At Los Angeles Times, "Herman Cain's supporters shocked by campaign's end":

Reporting from Atlanta— Kerry Hobbs was one of the many Herman Cain supporters who absorbed the festive vibe at the candidate’s newly opened Georgia headquarters Saturday and couldn’t believe that the candidate would be showing up just to drop out.

There was bunting and barbecue and blaring pop music. A sign-up sheet for volunteers. Herman Cain golf shirts going for $50. Policy pamphlets for free. And hundreds of people who had gathered in the parking lot of this suburban Atlanta retail strip, to support their unconventional and beloved candidate despite the gaffes and the accusations that had waylaid his campaign.

“I really want him to stay in,” said Hobbs, 39, a registered nurse from Norcross, Ga., who put herself through school as a single mom. “If he’s going to lose, let him lose fairly—because the people like another person’s policies. Don’t let him lose over a character assassination.”

Also at Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "Cain's reaction to allegations concerned some supporters."

And more from Pagan Temple, "The Cain Train Wreck-We Just Couldn't Keep From Watching It."

The Rise and Fall of Communism

I'm reading Archie Brown's book, which I enthusiastically recommend for your holiday gift giving. See the link at Amazon. And the Telegraph review is here: "Simon Heffer praises a book by Archie Brown that strips away the romance of communism."

And more: Shop Amazon's Holiday Book Deals.

Conservatives Must Recapture American Universities

I was thinking about this when Pepperdine's Professor Gregory McNeal sent me the link to his essay on drone warfare. There are a lot of conservatives in American higher education, and not just professors. I've been reading my students' term papers and most of them are so full of common sense and reasonable analysis. I sometimes wonder how instead that college campuses have becomes such intellectually violent places, inhospitable to the robust exchange of ideas. I think conservatives on campus often aren't as mobilized as are partisans on the left, and of course given the radical left orientation of the unions, there's good incentive not to be.

In any case, take a look at the piece from Ed Driscoll, "Dropping the A-Bomb on History" (via Instapundit):

If conservatives ever want to recapture the high ground of culture, just creating an alternative news media is nowhere near sufficient. they have to — somehow — recapture academia, where culture is ultimately created. And destroyed as well.

RELATED: From Bruce Kessler, at Maggie's Farm, "Jews Confront The Gentlemen’s Agreement On Campuses."

Ohio Homeowner Hogties Burglar

At The Wichita Eagle, "Ohio homeowner captures thief, ties hands and feet."

Can France and Germany Keep the Euro Alive?

At Telegraph UK:

Can Germany and France reach agreement on radical new rules that would mean a loss of sovereignty over fiscal policy for euro nations - and can they do it in time to save the single currency?

On the same day that the world's main central banks took emergency action to prevent a global financial crash caused by the eurozone crisis and as France warned that war could again return to Europe, a short film was released.

The slick computer-generated imagery shows a beautiful woman coming to life from the frieze of an ancient Greek vase: she is Europa.

Using video technology, the mythical goddess of ancient Greece morphs into an attractive real-life woman wandering magical bridges that link the European continent.

Last Wednesday's film, a seven- minute "informational" from the EU to mark 10 years of the euro, is accompanied by a reassuring female voice-over telling viewers that "Europe inspires hope".

In an unintentionally surreal touch, the film was released at the same time that Alain Juppe, the French foreign minister, warned that the euro's looming collapse could lead to war. On the same day, others were equally downbeat. Herman Van Rompuy, the EU's president, admitted that the eurozone debt crisis had become "systemic" and "full blown". Enda Kenny, Ireland's prime minister, said: "There is a real and present sense of danger."

Continue reading.

PREVIOUSLY: "German Power to Shape Europe's New Rules."

Inequality in High-Speed Internet Access

I'm continually surprised at the lack of both access and personal facility with these technologies among my students. Kids have wireless devices, phones and so forth. But the more fundamental knowledge of accessing high quality news online is often lacking. My class assignment in American Government makes an effort to rectify some of these gaps, but economic inequalities remain a huge impediment to literary fluency for many students in the current era.

See Susan Crawford, at New York Times, "Internet Access and the New Divide."

'No More I Love You's'

Annie Lennox:

Number of Television Owners Declines for First Time in 20 Years

At the Kansas City Star, "For first time in 20 years, TV ownership declines."

I was working on this post while listening to the MSNBC live-feed of Herman Cain's campaign announcement. And just the other day I was thinking that I no longer head straight for the TV when I get home. I can watch news online while blogging. The Star reports on Nielson data tracking the shifts in television ownership and emerging technologies. Live-streaming shows from the web would seem to be an important alternative to the television news, but DVRs and HDTV are the fastest growing technologies, which are tied to the classic television-monitor format. I'm just online all the time so that's my main source of news and information --- which, in the case of Herman Cain's departure, was delivered in real time.

Who Killed Horatio Alger?

From Luigi Zingales, at City Journal:

The title character of Horatio Alger’s 1867 novel Ragged Dick is an illiterate New York bootblack who, bolstered by his optimism, honesty, industriousness, and desire to “grow up ’spectable,” raises himself into the middle class. Alger’s novels are frequently misunderstood as mere rags-to-riches tales. In fact, they recount their protagonists’ journeys from rags to respectability, celebrating American capitalism and suggesting that the American dream is within everyone’s reach. The novels were idealized, of course; even in America, virtue alone never guaranteed success, and American capitalism during Alger’s time was far from perfect. Nevertheless, the stories were close enough to the truth that they became bestsellers, while America became known as a land of opportunity—a place whose capitalist system benefited the hardworking and the virtuous. In a word, it was a meritocracy.

To this day, Americans are unusually supportive of meritocracy, and their support goes a long way toward explaining their embrace of American-style capitalism. According to one recent study, just 40 percent of Americans attribute higher incomes primarily to luck rather than hard work—compared with 54 percent of Germans, 66 percent of Danes, and 75 percent of Brazilians. But perception cannot survive for long when it is distant from reality, and recent trends seem to indicate that America is drifting away from its meritocratic ideals. If the drifting continues, the result could be a breakdown of popular support for free markets and the demise of America’s unique version of capitalism.

Continue reading.

RELATED: I dealt with some similar issues here: "Decline of American Exceptionalism?"

Kelly Brook – Official Calendar 2012

She's lovely!

See all the pics: "Christmas is coming early Kelly Brook’ Official Calendar 2012 is Here."

And available at Amazon: Kelly Brook Official Calendar 2012.

Gingrich Leads in Latest Iowa Poll‎

At the Des Moines Register, "Iowa Poll: Newt Gingrich leads three-candidate race in Iowa" (via Memeorandum).

And see Michael Barone, at Washington Examiner, "Barone: Newt vies for America of his imagination."

German Power to Shape Europe's New Rules

It's interesting that Angela Merkel is so determined to preserve the Eurozone, even if that means making structural changes that weaken her European partners. The alternative is a collapse of the single currency and perhaps the disintegration of the European Union. The EU began as an effort to tie down France and Germany in a web of mutual cooperation and multilateral institutions. Germany now is the leading state working to prevent a return to balance of power politics on the continent. Strange how things work like that, but in the post-WWII era, no other political regime has undergone a great cultural change than Germany.

See Los Angeles Times, "Germany's hand will be uppermost as Europe writes new fiscal rules."

Herman Cain Suspends Presidential Campaign

I knew he was done after his first few words. It seemed like a wake not a rally.

See Midnight Blue, "There Can Be Only One – Cain Suspends his Presidential Campaign," and The Other McCain, "HERMAN CAIN ANNOUNCEMENT - UPDATE: SUSPENDING CAMPAIGN." And at Los Angeles Times, "Cain suspends campaign, vows to keep fighting."

The question now is how everything shakes out. National Journal has something on that, "Cain Reaches Out to Rivals," and The Hill, "Cain suspends campaign, vows to work from outside the race."

More on the John Mearsheimer Anti-Semitism Controversy

One of the better, more concise discussions I've read on this, at Counterpoint, "From the Editors: On the Controversy of John Mearsheimer" (via Instapundit).

And from Pejman Yousefzadeh, "It Is Time for John Mearsheimer to Go."

I wrote on this here: "The Tragedy of John Mearsheimer."

Test-Driving the 2012 Porsche 911

I mentioned that I worked valet parking back in the '80s. It was a fun job. Valets get to drive the world's best cars, and in Newport Beach and Costa Mesa (South Coast Plaza), there's no shortage of fabulous vehicles. The thrill of a Mercedes wears off pretty quickly, but I never tired of the Porsches.

In any case, I'm reminded of all this with the review at Popular Science, "Driven: The All-New 2012 Porsche 911" (via Instapundit).

Yep, best 911 ever. The new 991 is larger, faster, sportier, more efficient, and basically makes the last generation look as outdated as a four-button ventless suit with double-pleated pants. We loved the drive of the new version and feel it is the telos of the 911 model range. With its near-perfect blend of style, speed and technology, it's a surefire winner. Until the next all-new 911 comes out and starts the cycle anew.

Note: The video features owners taking possessing of their new cars at the El Toro Air Station in Irvine earlier this year. Saddleback Mountain can be seen at just after 1:00 minute at the clip.

Giant Pandas Prepare For New Life In Scotland

At Sky News:

Edinburgh Zoo is about to take delivery of two of the rarest animals on the planet - a pair of giant pandas on loan from the Chinese government.

Sunshine and Sweetie - Yangguang and Tian Tian in Chinese - are both seven-years-old.
They have grown up together in the misty mountains of southwest China.

On Sunday they will embark on a 5,000 mile journey to Scotland, where they will become star exhibits at the Edinburgh Zoo.

Continue reading.

The Neocon Rush to War Against Iran

From Jacob Heilbrunn, at National Interest:

Is Iran a threat to America? Or is it a fading power? The Iranian storming of the British embassy should not be interpreted as a sign of growing radicalism in Iran but as testament to the weakness of the regime. It has nothing in common with the 1979 takeover of the American embassy. There is no mass support inside Iran for attacking the United Kingdom. The calls in the Iranian parliament for "death to Britain" have an obligatory feel to them.

Yet the possiblity of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons has prompted a number of neoconservatives to maintain that it's imperative to launch a strike against it. Max Boot's column in the Los Angeles Times is a case in point. Paul Pillar points to the abuse of Nazi analogies in his post today. But Boot's column can be questioned on other grounds as well.

What caught my eye were the other historical analogies that Boot made. He asks why the West remained passive not just during the rise of Nazi Germany, but also

While the Soviet Union enslaved half of Europe and fomented revolution in China in the late 1940s? And, again, while Al Qaeda gathered strength in the 1990s? Those questions will forever haunt the reputations of the responsible statesmen, from Neville Chamberlain to Bill Clinton.

Continue reading.

Heilbrunn is right to take after Boot for that misguided analogical turn, although he's kidding himself if he really thinks Iran's an imaginary threat. See my earlier entry, "Melanie Phillips: Britain Impotently Warns Iran of 'Serious Consequences'."

Lady Gaga 'Marry the Night'

At Mirror UK, "Lady Gaga topless and eating cereal in shocking Marry The Night video set in a psychiatric ward."

The video, all 14:00 minutes of it, is at Los Angeles Times, "Lady Gaga's 'Marry the Night' video: five delicious moments."

Greta Van Susteren Interview with Newt Gingrich

At Greta's blog, "Speaker Newt Gingrich ‘On the Record’."

RELATED: At WSJ, "Gingrich Bolsters Campaign."

'We Are the 99 Percent' Joins the Cultural and Political Lexicon

The New York Times featured this at the front-page on Wednesday, predictably: "Camps Are Cleared, but ‘99 Percent’ Still Occupies the Lexicon."

Skim the first few paragraphs at the link and then listen to Adam Carolla, who created a sensation over the last few days with this viddy:

Gregory McNeal on Targeted Killing and Collateral Damage in U.S. Drone Warfare Operations

Gregory McNeal is Associate Professor of Law at Pepperdine University School of Law. Professor McNeal emailed me yesterday with a heads up on his new essay at the Social Science Research Network, "The U.S. Practice of Collateral Damage Estimation and Mitigation." And he's got a abbreviated version of the argument at Lawfare. An excerpt:

Much of the commentary about air launched targeted killing–especially the commentary that focuses on a “video game” style of warfare with unaccountable geographically remote pilots dropping bombs at their own discretion–simply does not describe the reality of current combat operations (I directly address the false claims about targeted killing in a forthcoming book chapter). To highlight one example of the reality I describe versus commentary we typically read, just consider the fact that in Afghanistan since at least June 2009, all air-to-ground operations are pre-planned operations unless troops are in an emergency situation requiring close air support (CAS), close combat attack (CCA) or the pilot is acting in self-defense. In both CAS and CCA in Afghanistan, the pilot may not deploy a weapon without ground commander direction, usually through a Joint Terminal Attack Controller (JTAC) (a JTAC is a person who accompanies ground forces and is specifically trained to direct accurate close air support to engage enemy targets while reducing collateral damage and civilian casualties). The pilot’s only discretion in current operations is to decide not to release a weapon, in other words the ground commander owns the battlespace not the drone pilot. Furthermore, Air Force leaders repeatedly emphasize to their pilots that they will not be disciplined for returning to base with all of their bombs on their plane. Air Force leadership will even support the decision of pilots not employ a weapon, even if that decision directly contravenes the orders of the ground commander. This reality is a far cry from the free fire zone of “video game” warriors described by many drone critics.

Because targeted killing operations by UAV are not CAS or CCA, they are pre-planned operations, and as such must be subjected to the military’s rigorous collateral damage methodology. That methodology is grounded in scientific evidence derived from research, experiments, history, and battlefield intelligence, and is designed to adapt to time-critical events. The CDM is a planning tool that assists commanders in mitigating unintended or incidental damage or injury to civilians, property and the environment and aids them in assessing proportionality and in weighing risks to collateral concerns. In the context of targeted killing, the CDM takes into account every conventional weapon a UAV could carry.

The first step in the military’s collateral damage estimation process requires military commanders and their subordinates to ensure that they can positively identify, with reasonable certainty, that the object or person they want to affect is a legitimate military target (in the case of persons, one who is directly participating in hostilities). In targeted killing operations, the process of positively identifying a target means that commanders and their subordinates are focusing principally on the identity of the target. This is an intelligence-heavy task that relies on the collective effort of the intelligence community (both military and civilian) to vet and ensure the validity of the target in accordance with IHL and the ROE. Before engaging in an operation, military personnel must inform a commander (or “strike approval authority”) of the assumptions and uncertainties associated with information provided for the operation, including the time sensitive nature of any intelligence relied upon. In practice, what this means is that if positive identification of a target fails, no operation will take place. This is so because in U.S. practice, positive identification satisfies the requirement of ensuring that a target has the status of a legitimate military objective. When doubt arises as to whether an object holds civilian status, there exists a presumption that it does, hence the requirement of positive identification in U.S. operations.

Continue reading.

Also, see the response from Benjamin Wittes, at Lawfare, "Gregory McNeal on U.S. Targeting Standards." And from Kenneth Anderson, at Volokh, "Gregory McNeal on US Military Targeting Processes."

RELATED: A blast from the past. See Colin H. Kahl, at International Security, "In the Crossfire or the Crosshairs? Norms, Civilian Casualties, and U.S. Conduct in Iraq."

The Death of European Socialist Welfare States

A massive state sector requires a robust economy, and the peripheral states of the EU can't sustain the socialist project. It's not the end of European socialism, but the left is being pummeled by events, and good thing too.

See Jonathan Blitzer, at The New Republic, "Has the Euro Crisis Killed Off Social Democracy For Good?":

Madrid – Outgoing Socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, of Spain, had until recently been the beneficiary of propitious circumstances. Party infighting enabled him to outmaneuver the establishment favorite in the 2000 primaries. Four years later, he eked out an eleventh hour victory in national elections when a terrorist bombing mere days before voting turned the tide against incumbent conservatives. As he took office, a booming economy—which enjoyed the second largest budget surplus in Europe as late as 2007—paved the way for an ambitious social agenda, which rallied his progressive base.

But if a flair for the unexpected studded his ascent, it was a bruising inevitability that brought him low. A rapidly worsening economic crisis left him with little choice but to announce, in April, that he would not stand for re-election. After months of daily flaying by an emboldened conservative opposition, early elections came as a relief for Zapatero, even as his party blamed him when it was trounced, as expected, two weeks ago.

But Zapatero didn’t fall alone: Center-left governments in Portugal and Greece have also fallen in recent months. All in all, it’s a long-standing trend. Leftist governments in Europe have been teetering now for over a decade. Ten years ago, social democratic governments were at the helm in half the countries of the EU. That number has since dropped to three. But their recent plight is their most dire. The sovereign debt crisis has done more than batter incumbent socialists out of office; it may well have stripped the social democratic movement of its soul in the crisis zone.

Continue reading.

November Employment Situation Dissected & Reviewed

By Barry Ritholtz, at The Big Picture (via TigerHawk).

PREVIOUSLY: "Signs of Hope? Unemployment Lingers Near 9 Percent as Obama Depression Drags On."

RELATED: Steven Gandel, at Time, "American Unemployment Falls to 8.6%: Amazing News, But Is It a Game Changer?" Also, "William Galston, at The New Republic, "Our Deeply Daunting Jobs Hole."

Herman Cain Announcement Today

And Weasel Zippers has this, "Report: Herman Cain Will Quit Race…"

But see Los Angeles Times, "Herman Cain prepares announcement on campaign's future":

Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain, already reeling from sexual harassment claims and rocked anew by allegations of adultery, has told supporters he is preparing to make a major announcement Saturday.

That set off widespread speculation Friday that the former chief executive of Godfather's Pizza, who briefly enjoyed front-runner status in the Republican presidential campaign, would drop out of the race.

Cain, whose businessman's approach to issues and lack of elective experience appealed to voters weary of career politicians, refused to tip his hand Friday in South Carolina, where he held a town hall meeting with supporters.

"I am reassessing because of all of this media firestorm stuff," he said. "Why? Because my wife and family comes first." He planned to meet with his family, he said, to "clarify ... what the next steps are."

Steve Grubbs, who is running Cain's campaign in Iowa, said he believed Cain would stay in the race.

"As dark as it seems today, we're not out of this thing. I know it," Grubbs said Friday.

More at the link.

Happy Birthday Britney!

She's 30!

At LAT, "Britney Spears turns 30: A timeline of the singer's life in video."

New Direction for Occupy Wall Street?

Check yesterday's Los Angeles Times, "Eviction pushes Occupy protesters in new directions."

Lots of folks are talking about how Occupy's causing a long-term shift towards reducing income inequality in American politics. I'm a bit skeptical about that. I expect mostly more violent agitation from the more radical Occupy mobs. Mentioned at the Times, for example, are plans for "national and regional coordinated actions" like "a Dec. 12 shutdown of West Coast ports."

I saw something on this the other day, and Occupy Oakland has this, "Support Grows For Occupy Movement’s Coordinated West Coast Shut Down On December 12th."

“We’re shutting down these ports because of the union busting and attacks on the working class by the 1%: the firing of Port truckers organizing at SSA terminals in LA; the attempt to rupture ILWU union jurisdiction in Longview, WA by EGT. EGT includes Bunge LTD, a company which reported 2.5 billion dollars in profit last year and has economically devastated poor people in Argentina and Brazil. SSA is responsible for inhumane working conditions and gross exploitation of port truckers and is owned by Goldman Sachs. EGT and Goldman Sachs is Wallstreet on the Waterfront” stated Barucha Peller of the West Coast Port Blockade Assembly of Occupy Oakland.

“We are also striking back against the nationally’ coordinated attack on the Occupy movement. In response to the police violence and camp evictions against the Occupy movement- This is our coordinated response against the 1%. On December 12th we will show are collective power through pinpointed economic blockade of the 1%.”

Sounds pretty militant, and no doubt some of these folks are dead serious, given the scale of unrest during the recent Oakland port shutdown. Anyway, more on this from Lee Stranahan, at Big Government, "Occupy Leader Says Union ‘Opposition’ to Planned 12/12 West Coast Port Shutdown Is ‘Just a Game’."

Mitt Romney vs. Newt Gingrich

From Charles Krauthammer, at Washington Post, "Mitt vs. Newt" (via Memeorandum). It's an astute analysis, and I think objectively more harsh on Gingrich. Read it all. I'm adding the conclusion here for contemplation:

My own view is that Republicans would have been better served by the candidacies of Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan or Chris Christie. Unfortunately, none is running. You play the hand you’re dealt. This is a weak Republican field with two significantly flawed front-runners contesting an immensely important election. If Obama wins, he will take the country to a place from which it will not be able to return (which is precisely his own objective for a second term).

Every conservative has thus to ask himself two questions: Who is more likely to prevent that second term? And who, if elected, is less likely to unpleasantly surprise?

I believe Romney is by far more likely to prevent that second term, but not because he's so great a campaigner or because of his (actually scant) political achievements. I think Romney will be the one that swing voters hate less. That is, Romney's eminently less repulsive than Newt. It's something that goes way beyond the flip-flopping (on which both Mitt and Newt are major leaguers ). The 2012 campaign is going to be the ugliest in memory. Because Barack Obama has been such an obviously lousy president --- with so many enormous liabilities, especially on the economy, health care, and Israel --- the Democrat-Media-Complex and the progressive left's ideological character attack machine will be ramped up to such hyper-steroidal velocities that even Sarah Palin will blanch. It will be merciless. Mitt will be torn to shreds as a Mormon social policy extremist in sheep's clothing who'll take a razor to the economy to eviscerate jobs in the employment sector. Newt will be hammered as the right's public policy Ebenezer Scrooge who's also an epic hypocrite adulterer with the moral backbone of a snail. The electability argument then becomes not just which candidate is better able to withstand the onslaught, but which candidate is best able to retain his dignity and humanity. That's where I think Mitt will have the edge.

But again, I'll reiterate that Romney will be least bad, but he'll still be pretty awful. Michelle Malkin has hammered Romney as the "cupcake candidate," unable to withstand a set of reasonable questions from a reasonable interviewer like Bret Baier. But Michelle's attack on Newt is devastating --- a wonder to behold --- and in the end more damaging to a general election campaign:

VIDEO PULLED

I admit it's not a lot to hang your hat on --- in fact, Michelle says we'll need Hold Your Nose Plugs for the 2012 GOP campaign. But I've met both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. I've listened to them both. Campaigning for the presidency also requires personal attributes such as accessibility and likability, points on which I find Newt woefully inadequate. But most of all I think on the economy and jobs --- notwithstanding the left's forthcoming demonic smear campaigns --- I see Mitt Romney as better positioned to make the case for change in 2012. He's got business executive experience that voters will appreciate as necessary to turn the economy around. If he can pick up his game for the hot-seat television interviews he'll have a good shot at mounting a formidable campaign for both the nomination and for the presidency next November.

I'll have more later. Meanwhile, see Legal Insurrection for the anticipated problems for a Romney general election campaign: "How Obama would attack Romney." And also more on Romney's cupcake factor: "Romney one step closer to Pawlentyville."

The Anti-Israel President

From the Horowitz Freedom Center:

Signs of Hope? Unemployment Lingers Near 9 Percent as Obama Depression Drags On

The MFM is putting the most positive gloss on the job numbers, at New York Times, for example, "Signs of Hope in Jobs Report; Unemployment Drops to 8.6%."

The RNC isn't settling for the left's economic whitewash: "Republicans throw cold water on unemployment numbers."

And see Maggie's Farm, "More MSM Cheerleading." Plus, from James Pethokoukis, "November jobs report: 7 reasons why it’s better but still terrible."

And more at the Heritage Foundation, "Morning Bell: America Needs More Job Creation":

The question is whether this improvement is real and enduring or a fluke. The economy is growing, but there’s little evidence of the real strength the report suggests, and there’s a lot in the report to suggest something’s amiss with the numbers–something likely to be corrected in the next report. For example, is it likely the labor market strengthened as much as the job number suggests at the same time so many people abandoned the workforce? And this is only one of the anomalies in the report.

The White House would therefore be wise to trumpet today’s news with soft notes. The fact remains that under President Barack Obama’s watch, the U.S. unemployment rate remains high because America just isn’t creating enough new jobs. And if the only way the Obama Administration can get the unemployment rate to drop is by convincing people to quit looking for work, that’s bad news for the American economy. Or to quote liberal blogger Matt Yglesias, ”Decreasing unemployment by shrinking the labor force is not exactly winning the future.”

It goes without saying that if the U.S. economy loses more jobs than it creates, the unemployment rate goes up. If job losses are low but few new jobs are created, then the unemployment rate treads water and remains high, with occasional dips and rises–and that’s what we’re seeing today.

Still more from John Hayward, "Unemployment Rate Falls Due To Workforce Contraction."

VDH on Immigration, Multiculturalism and Amnesty

Victor Davis Hanson is the very best commentator on the illegal immigration crisis in California.

Hanson's don't-miss book is Mexifornia: A State of Becoming.

'Serial Hypocrisy' — Ron Paul Slams Newt Gingrich in New Ad

It's a powerful advertisement, via Ace of Spades HQ:

Incidentally, let me go on the record here: For any Paul fans who are thinking "This is his time," I heretofore state I will not support, or vote for, Ron Paul, under any circumstances whatsoever.

That's where I'm coming from. Under no circumstances whatsoever will I vote for this reactionary, anti-semitic peacenik "We brought 9/11 ourselves" pacifist Chomnskyite crank.

And I'll say it: I will, yes, be amenable to Barack Obama being re-elected under those circumstances. As members of the Purity Brigade used to tell me -- Sometimes you win by losing.

Keep reading.

That's a provocative blog entry. And long too, but go check it out.

CDC's Dr. Kimberley Lindsey Charged With Bestiality and Child Molestation

At London's Daily Mail, "Female scientist charged with child molesting and bestiality is back at work at the Centers for Disease Control."

And at iOWNTHEWORLD, "The World is Being Shaped By the Morality of the Left":

All calls for tolerance and understanding and the creeping acceptance of this kind of crap comes from the left. They are despicable.

Exactly.

As I always say, it's freakin' live and let live with these reprobates. There are no moral indecencies. The bastards.

Dissing American Exceptionalism, Again

Another commentator, radical leftist Tom Engelhardt, misses the basic thesis of American exceptionalism. It's not all about power, which is how most of those who cheer American decline conceptualize it. See, "The American century: That was then":

As a 67-year-old, I grew up in a post-World War II era that, by any measure, was the height of the first American century. As much of the rest of the developed world struggled to rebuild devastated cities, the United States couldn't have been more exceptional, a one-of-a-kind country in producing the big-ticket items both of peace and of war, often from the same corporations.

Back then, there was no need for presidents or presidential candidates to get up and repetitively reassure the American people of just how exceptional we were. It was too obvious to state. After all, when you've really got it, you don't have to flaunt it.

So, the next time you hear any politician insisting that this country is American century-style exceptional, think of it as a kind of secret confession that we aren't. These days, you can feel the uncomfortably defensive snarl (or whine) that lurks in the insistence that our country isn't just another powerful nation in political gridlock and economic trouble.

Actually, we are, but Engelhardt's too much the bloody idiot --- surrounded by bloody communist idiots --- to understand why.

PREVIOUSLY: "Harvard's Stephen Walt: 'The Myth of American Exceptionalism'."

VIDEO: Sean Hannity Interview With Herman Cain — 'I'm Going to Fight 'Em'

Continued developments:

Listen closely. Cain sounds less like he's thinking of quitting than earlier reports stressed. Cain says his wife has "forgiven him" and she's "ready to move on." Despite the admission that quitting is indeed "an option," the overall tone of the interview is combative --- not combative towards Sean Hannity, but combative towards those making the allegations. There's nothing indicating an imminent exit from the race. Cain feels he's got a viable campaign. His wife is "totally supportive." Cain rejects the allegations of an affair and says "I'm going to fight 'em no matter what."

See my previous entry, "Herman Cain Admits Wife Didn't Know of Payments to Alleged Mistress Ginger White."

Herman Cain Admits Wife Didn't Know of Payments to Alleged Mistress Ginger White

At Los Angeles Times, "Herman Cain says wife didn't know about payments to Ginger White." And at Christian Science Monitor, "Herman Cain admits payments to Ginger White, edges toward quitting":

In an interview with New Hampshire's Union Leader newspaper, Herman Cain said his wife didn't know he was giving money to Ginger White, who claims to have had a 13-year affair with him. Cain also said quitting the presidential race 'is an option.'

Goodness, this is another brutally painful interview. Newspaper editorial offices are the new courtrooms of public opinion:

Lots more at Hot Air, "Cain: My wife didn’t know that I was giving money to my accuser," and Memeorandum.

Europe at the Brink

A great analysis at yesterday's Los Angeles Times, "In Europe debt crisis, markets and masses wait for Merkel to blink." And at New York Times, "Money Flows, but What Euro Zone Lacks Is Glue."

And now, at The Economist, "The euro zone: Is this really the end?":

EVEN as the euro zone hurtles towards a crash, most people are assuming that, in the end, European leaders will do whatever it takes to save the single currency. That is because the consequences of the euro’s destruction are so catastrophic that no sensible policymaker could stand by and let it happen.

A euro break-up would cause a global bust worse even than the one in 2008-09. The world’s most financially integrated region would be ripped apart by defaults, bank failures and the imposition of capital controls (see article). The euro zone could shatter into different pieces, or a large block in the north and a fragmented south. Amid the recriminations and broken treaties after the failure of the European Union’s biggest economic project, wild currency swings between those in the core and those in the periphery would almost certainly bring the single market to a shuddering halt. The survival of the EU itself would be in doubt.

Yet the threat of a disaster does not always stop it from happening. The chances of the euro zone being smashed apart have risen alarmingly, thanks to financial panic, a rapidly weakening economic outlook and pigheaded brinkmanship. The odds of a safe landing are dwindling fast.

Keep reading.

The authors argue that the European Central Bank needs to provide massive liquidity, and fast.

IMAGE CREDIT: Der Spiegel, "Euro Zone on the Brink: A Continent Stares into the Abyss."

Melanie Phillips: Britain Impotently Warns Iran of 'Serious Consequences'

She's the best.

See, "Hague shakes his puny fist in the thirty years' invisible war":

For some thirty years, Britain and the west have experienced war waged upon them by Iran – but fantastically, have refused to acknowledge this fact. They refused to fight back. They refused therefore also to acknowledge what has been crystal clear for at least the past two decades: that it was never going to be a choice between war or peace with Iran. It was always going to be a choice between fighting that war sooner, when Iran was weaker and the west had more chance of minimising the fall-out, and fighting that war later, when Iran would be much stronger -- and possibly even a nuclear power -- and when the consequences for the west would be that much more terrible.

What the west refused to grasp was that there was never any chance of the Iranian regime seeing sense. That’s because what drives its dominant members at least is not conventional political impulse but an apocalyptic messianism. That means they actively seek to bring about a conflagration -- even if this consumes much of Iran -- since they believe that this apocalypse will prompt the return to earth of a religious messiah figure. They actually want to bring about the end of the world. But the west just didn’t take any of this remotely seriously.

The result has been catastrophic for the world. Iran has been outwitting the west at every turn, aided immeasurably by an American President who extended to these genocidal fanatics the hand of friendship while smashing his fist down on their principal prospective victim, Israel. As a result, Iran has enormously extended its power in the region and become seen there – disastrously -- as the strong horse which must be ridden, while the once-mighty US has become the enfeebled nag that is no longer prepared even to defend itself, let alone anyone else.

RTWT.

Accused Adulterer or Admitted Adulterer? Herman Cain Backers Look Warily to Newt Gingrich

The media meme du jour.

At Los Angeles Times, "Cain's backers warily consider Gingrich":

Republicans who don't want to vote for Mitt Romney had rallied behind the Atlanta businessman, but his campaign has been rocked by accusations of an affair. And the former House speaker has a marital track record of his own.

Herman Cain's latest presidential campaign implosion has put some of the Republican Party's most active voters in a distinctly uncomfortable position: deciding whether to abandon an accused adulterer to side with an admitted adulterer.

Even before Monday's allegation by an Atlanta businesswoman that she and Cain had a 13-year affair, the GOP contest was moving toward a two-man race between steady front-runner Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the latest candidate to catch the fancy of the anti-Romney forces. That movement now is expected to hasten.

Cain told backers Tuesday that he was "reassessing" his candidacy in light of the newest accusations, which follow allegations that he sexually harassed several women in the 1990s. His campaign offered no clue as to when he might come to a decision about his future.

In Iowa, where voting in the 2012 contest will begin in just over a month, an alternative to Romney has been intensely sought by the potent bloc of evangelical voters, who remain suspicious of his Mormon faith and his past support for abortion rights and gay rights. Many are throwing their support to Gingrich despite his history of extramarital affairs and two divorces.

"Newt's got the best shot of heading Romney off at the pass," said Steve Scheffler, head of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition and the state's Republican national committeeman.

Cain appears to be plowing ahead, actually. But the press has left the "Cain train" at the station. At USA Today, "News media gives up on Cain campaign."

See the full report at The Other McCain, "CRISIS LOOMS FOR HERMAN CAIN CAMPAIGN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE UPDATE: Cain Tells CNN He’ll Make Decision ‘Within the Next Several Days’."

Early Results in Egypt Show Mandate for Islamists

At New York Times:

CAIRO — Islamists claimed a decisive victory on Wednesday as early election results put them on track to win a dominant majority in Egypt’s first Parliament since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak, the most significant step yet in the religious movement’s rise since the start of the Arab Spring.

The party formed by the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s mainstream Islamist group, appeared to have taken about 40 percent of the vote, as expected. But a big surprise was the strong showing of ultraconservative Islamists, called Salafis, many of whom see most popular entertainment as sinful and reject women’s participation in voting or public life.

Analysts in the state-run news media said early returns indicated that Salafi groups could take as much as a quarter of the vote, giving the two groups of Islamists combined control of nearly 65 percent of the parliamentary seats.

That victory came at the expense of the liberal parties and youth activists who set off the revolution, affirming their fears that they would be unable to compete with Islamists who emerged from the Mubarak years organized and with an established following. Poorly organized and internally divided, the liberal parties could not compete with Islamists disciplined by decades as the sole opposition to Mr. Mubarak. “We were washed out,” said Shady el-Ghazaly Harb, one of the most politically active of the group.

Also, from Barry Rubin, "Flash: What, Me Pessimistic? Egyptian Election Outcome is Worse Than I Expected."

Victoria's Secret Bombshell Babes Boost CBS Ratings

A wrap-up on Tuesday night's show, at Los Angeles Times, "'Victoria's Secret Fashion Show' shows ratings legs for CBS":

The models may have cavorted on the runway in little wisps of things, but the ratings were fully dressed.

CBS defied the skeptics once again Tuesday night and turned "The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show" into a ratings winner.

The lingerie extravaganza stripped down before 10.3 million total viewers, up 15% compared with last year's show, according to Nielsen.

Among the adults aged 18 to 49 demographic coveted by advertisers, "Victoria's Secret" climbed a big 35%.

'Love The Way You Lie'

And, ICYMI, the interview with Eminem, at GQ's, "Survivors Music Portfolio":

The current Mathers narrative revolves around his triumph over a nasty addiction to prescription meds. It's not a touchy subject: Within minutes, he introduces the topic, explaining how he used to drink and pop pills to get through his concerts. "I'm very much a creature of habit," he says, picking up his Red Bull. "If I'm used to waking up in the morning and having one of these, I could do it every morning for the next ten years straight until I find something else to move on to. So if I'm used to taking a Vicodin when I wake up in the morning because I'm hungover from ­drinking or taking pills..." He trails off. "The bigger the crowd, the bigger my habit got."

Mathers says you can trace the arc of his addiction by listening to his albums: He was more or less sober writing the white-trash party that was The Slim Shady LP (1999); he credits experimentation with drugs for taking his music to unexpected places on The Marshall Mathers LP (2000); with The Eminem Show (2002), he struck the perfect balance—a potent mix of punch-line raps and intensely biographical material. Then the balance tipped: His fourth album, Encore, was his weakest, and it took him two years to complete because of his addiction to pills. "Five or six songs leaked from the original version of Encore," he says. "So I had to go in and make new songs to replace them. In my head I was pissed off: 'Oh well. Songs leaked. Fuck it. I'm just going to take a bunch of fucking pills and go in there and have a party with myself.' I'm sure the more pills I took, the goofier I got."

He's a little hazy about that time, when he was taking, by his own account, somewhere between sixty and ninety pills a day, including Valium, Vicodin, Ambien, and Seroquel (used to treat schizophrenia). "Ambien," he says, "ate a hole through my brain." He thinks he went to rehab in 2005, but don't hold him to that. Like I said, it's a little hazy.

Rehab was not a safe space for Eminem. "Look," he says, "every addict in rehab feels like everyone's staring at them. With me? Everyone was staring at me. I could never be comfortable. There were people there that treated me normal. Then there were a bunch of fucking idiots who aren't even concentrating on their own sobriety because they're so worried about mine. They're stealing my hats, my books—it was chaos. Everything was drama in there. And at the time, I didn't really want to get clean. Everybody else wanted me to. And anyone will tell you: If you're not ready, nothing is going to change you. Love, nothing."

He left rehab pissed off and heavily burdened with what he calls "woe is me"—and started popping pills again. It nearly killed him. "I came to in the hospital and I didn't know what the fuck happened," he says. "Tubes in me and shit, fuckin' needles in my arms. I didn't realize I had [overdosed]. I wanted my drugs—get me the fuck outta there! I think I was clean for two weeks. I was trying so hard—I was trying to do it for my kids—but I just wasn't ready."

What finally got him clean after a second relapse wasn't his kids or his coma or even hip-hop. This time he really thought he was going to die. "I had a feeling in my arm that was weird, man," he says. "Like, it really freaked me out. So I went to some people I trust and said, 'Look, I know I need help. I'm ready now.' I got a room in the same hospital where I overdosed, and I detoxed."

More here: "The Survivors: Eminem."

Tea Party vs. Occupy

Via American Glob:

Herman Cain Hangs On

At New York Times, "Amid Questions, Cain Stays Defiant":

COLUMBUS, Ohio — As leading Republicans began openly questioning how Herman Cain has handled the allegations against him, he remained defiant Wednesday with a message that he had repeated over and again: “Don’t give up!”

The line seemed doubly resonant. It was clearly a motivational message for the several hundred young adults at an afternoon rally for Mr. Cain at Ohio State University here. But it was also a statement about Mr. Cain himself as pressure mounted for a second day for him to withdraw from the presidential race amid an escalating scandal about his sexual conduct.

On Monday, an Atlanta woman came forward to say that she and Mr. Cain had had a 13-year extramarital affair that ended this year, just as he was getting ready to run for the Republican nomination. Already, Mr. Cain had spent most of November defending himself against revelations of sexual harassment allegations stemming from his time as president of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s.

But nothing in Mr. Cain’s actions on Wednesday suggested that he would halt his campaign as he engaged in a whirlwind day of campaigning around Ohio and in New Hampshire.

“They want you to believe that we can’t do this,” he told a few hundred supporters gathered in a hotel ballroom in Dayton on Wednesday morning. “They want you to believe that with enough character assassination on me, I will drop out!”

The audience shouted, “No!” and “Don’t go!

And at The Other McCain, "New Cain Campaign Video: ‘Put an Executive in the Executive Office’." And from Jeff Goldstein, "It's NOT Time For Herman Cain to Go."

Protesters Leave Behind 30 Tons of Debris at Occupy L.A.

Dirtbags.

And from Glenn Reynolds, "Remember how the Tea Party protesters left things neater than they found them? Which group is more likely to have a positive vision for America’s future?"

At Los Angeles Times, "Occupy L.A.: 30 tons of debris left behind at City Hall tent city."

Plus, "Occupy L.A.: Protesters march downtown past LAPD headquarters."

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My son loves Hell Kerbecs.

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Romney Goes Up With New Ad in New Hampshire

At the New Hampshire Union-Leader, "Romney goes positive, features Ayotte, in new TV ad."

Police Clear Occupy Philadelphia

At the Philadelphia Inquirer, "Police clear Occupy encampment, 52 arrested":

Police swarmed around City Hall and rousted Occupy Philadelphia protesters from their encampment overnight, more than two days after a deadline passed for them to leave.

The occupiers responded by roaming around Center City, scattering and regrouping with police following their every move in a chaotic night of cat-and-mouse that ended before daylight.

"The Dilworth occupation is over," Mayor Nutter said at a news conference just before 7 a.m.

Crews were using bulldozers and other heavy equipment to clear up debris and fire hoses to wash down Dilworth Plaza as he spoke.

He called the police operation to clear the plaza "tremendously well planned and executed."

Officials said 52 people were arrested, 45 of them in a 5 a.m. face off on North 15th Street behind the Inquirer and School District buildings. all were charged with failure to disperse and obstruction.

"We followed them around Center City all night long and finally arrested some of them," Police Commissioner Charles H. Ramsey.

Also, "Occupy Philly marches on city police HQ."

Plus, Tania Gail reported on the Sunday deadline, "Occupy Philly Moving On":

I decided it was just too risky to venture down to Dilworth Plaza tonight as there was already a history of rape and assault against women at Occupation Philly – I didn’t want to attract that kind of attention.

Exactly, a bunch of rapists, drug addicts, and murderers.

PREVIOUSLY: "Police Clear Occupy Los Angeles."

RELATED: At New York Times, "Police Clear Occupy Encampments in Two Cities."