Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Bernie Sanders' Barnburner Victory Speech at the Iowa Caucuses (VIDEO)

Of all the results last night, I got the biggest kick out of Bernie Sanders.

I'd never vote for him. But I love --- and I mean I just love --- how he's taking it to Hillary Clinton like a brick upside her head.

Pat Caddell was on Sean Hannity's earlier and he claimed that Sanders most likely won the popular vote in Iowa --- the 49.9 to 49.6 percent vote totals being reported are based on the shares of the delegate counts --- but that the Democrat National Committee won't release popular vote data, lest they give Sanders added momentum and legitimacy headed into New Hampshire.

One thing you might have noticed is that Sanders is an extremely disciplined campaigner. He doesn't deviate much from his standard stump speech, but nevertheless captivates voters at every stop. He's hammering on the issues of economic insecurity and economic inequality like no other candidate, and he's shameless in his robust embrace of hard-left ideological attacks on the corporate rich, the billionaires, and the "1 percent." These themes are the more focused priorities that far-left progressives have hoped the Obama administration would push for, and they want the next Democrat administration to be even more radical in seeking to level the playing field in the American economy and dismantle the free-market infrastructure. In plain language, they see Sanders as their agent of "more free stuff." I can see why young, idealistic Millennials have placed so much stock in him.

In any case, I hate the politics, but his populist appeal and cornered-bull tenacity are extremely compelling. Hillary Clinton is looking at a repeat of 2008, and it's gotta be ugly from her perspective. Once again, she got taken to the cleaners by a far-left candidate that came virtually out of nowhere. Yeah, she "breathed a sigh of relief" that she tied and wasn't blown out of the water, but Sanders beat expectations, big time.

In any case, watch his ball-busting speech below

And see the Los Angeles Times, "Sanders campaign manager predicts 'a tremendous bounce'":
The man behind Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign on Monday night said he expects "a tremendous bounce" out of Iowa after the Vermont senator found himself locked in a race there with Hillary Clinton that was too close to call.

“An early success gives your candidate and your campaign credibility to future voters," said Sanders' campaign manager Jeff Weaver. He said he was looking forward to taking the campaign to New Hampshire "where the senator is very, very popular." Sanders is ahead in many polls there.

Although the Iowa race was virtually tied Monday night, Sanders and his supporters looked and sounded like they were celebrating a victory.

In a speech to a jubilant crowd in the ballroom of a Des Moines hotel, Sanders said the Iowa results signaled the beginning of "a political revolution.”

"Nine months ago we came to this beautiful state," Sanders said. "We had no political organization, we had no money, no name recognition. And we were taking on the most powerful political organization in the United States of America."

Sanders, who had to catch a plane to New Hampshire, stuck close to his stump speech, vowing to fight for more equality and to create "an economy that works for working families, not just the billionaire class."
Watch:



The full speech is here (but turn down your volume), "Watch Bernie Sanders' full speech after Iowa caucuses."

Karlina Caune for Elle France

At Egotastic!, "KARLINA CAUNE TOPLESS TEASE FOR ELLE FRANCE."

Also, at Vogue, "Meet Karlina Caune, the World’s Toughest Model."

She's tough!

What to Expect Heading Into the New Hampshire Primary (VIDEO)

Be sure to stay with the entire Charles Krauthammer segment at the clip. I only disagree with him on Hillary Clinton, who I think took a shellacking by coming in a virtual tie with Bernie Sanders (and where Dr. K claims she won the state, only to be corrected by Megyn Kelly).

Other than that, it's an outstanding analysis.

And see also, at the Washington Post, "Here’s what to expect in the New Hampshire Republican primary":


CONCORD, N.H. — Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in Iowa on Monday night, but he faces a strikingly different set of challenges in trying to replicate that victory in New Hampshire’s primary next week. He has a lesser organization here, has spent less time here, and can’t count on such a large evangelical electorate.

History provides a clear warning. In 2008 and 2012, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won the Iowa Republican caucuses with heavy support from evangelicals. Both then arrived here lacking a strong organization, lost this state, and failed to become the GOP nominees.

With the Republican Party’s focus on Iowa now complete, the spotlight on ethanol and evangelicals is out. Now begins an eight-day sprint that in many ways will be entirely different because New Hampshire’s voters reflect a very different side of the GOP. They’re socially moderate and fiscally frugal, and use a primary voting system that allows greater participation by independent-minded voters who revel in upsetting the conventional wisdom.

It’s why a handful of GOP “establishment” candidates who did poorly in Iowa think they’ll perform better here.

“New Hampshire voters reset elections. That’s what you all do. … The reset starts here tonight,” former Florida governor Jeb Bush defiantly told about 300 supporters at Manchester’s Alpine Club on Monday night.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie told a crowd in Hopkinton Monday night that Iowa “has passed the ball to you.” The field would soon be thinned. “You all,” he said, “are going to decide it.”

Ohio Gov. John Kasich told an audience of about 200 at the Bow Elementary School on Sunday that “You come here, and you look and you poke, once in a while you smell and you try to decide, is this our leader? Whether I win or not, I believe in this process. I believe that folks in New Hampshire are the best screeners that America can have to recommend to the country.”

Wayne Lesperance, a professor of political science at New England College in Henniker, N.H., said that “New Hampshire has gone differently than Iowa in six of the last nine elections on the Republican side, so the idea that one follows the other’s lead just doesn’t bear out.”

And yet, Iowa and New Hampshire share more in common this cycle, thanks to Donald Trump. He has held a double-digit lead over his GOP opponents here for more than 30 weeks and dominates the headlines — just as he did in Iowa before losing to Cruz there on Monday...
Trump's up 25 points in the recent Franklin-Pierce/Boston Globe poll, and we'll see new surveys out this week, perhaps as soon as later today. Both Cruz and Rubio will get a boost in the Granite state coming out of Iowa, but not that much and Trump can mitigate any potential decline by doing what he always does: making some news.

Most of all, though, he needs to keep up with the gracious tone he displayed in his Iowa concession, and he needs to talk policy. And importantly, Trump can't blow off the voters. He can't take them for granted, acting with epic hubris and skipping debates, or what not.

John McCain didn't even contest Iowa in 2008, and he won New Hampshire after a long slog through the state on a shoestring. Keep your eyes on Trump and Rubio this week. For some reason I don't expect Cruz's longhorn Texas style to play as well up in the Northeast.

In any case, more at the link.

Monday, February 1, 2016

Jackie Johnson's Hot Red Tuesday Forecast

Can't forget to blog the lovely Jackie!

Via CBS News 2 Los Angeles:



Donald Trump's the Biggest Loser Coming Out of Iowa (VIDEO)

Yeah, well, I said as much earlier, although the campaign's just beginning now.

And frankly, he gave a classy concession speech, which I'm just now seeing, since CNN was running with somebody, I think Hillary, at the time.

As far as expectations go, he's definitely taken a beating. The sign of a winner, though, is how well they take defeat, with sportsmanship or bitterness. The Donald's gonna be fine. He needs to be on the ground campaigning in New Hampshire first thing in the morning.

In any case, at U.S. News and World Report, "In Iowa, the Emperor Has No Clothes":


The day has arrived. GOP front-runner Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed consummate winner, is now officially a loser, placing second in the Iowa caucuses behind Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

Trump lost despite polling nearly five points ahead of Cruz and the other GOP candidates. He could taste the victory. "Unless I win," Trump said Sunday, "I would consider this a big, fat, beautiful – and, by the way, a very expensive – waste of time. … If I don't win, maybe bad things will happen."

In contrast, a noticeably subdued Trump whitewashed his loss when he took the stage after the caucus, simply encouraging supporters to look forward to the future. "New Hampshire – we love New Hampshire. We love South Carolina." Rather than castigating the people of Iowa, as many expected (and as he's done before), Trump spun the loss as beating expectations: "I absolutely love the people of Iowa. … I was told by everybody, 'Do not go to Iowa. You cannot finish even in the top 10.' "

But overall, Trump's entire campaign has been predicated on his being a winner. And as Talking Point Memo's Josh Marshall summarized, "If you're a 'winner', if you're the alpha, you have to win."
Keep reading.

Anti-Establishment Caucuses, With Unexpected Winners

Here's Susan Page, at USA Today, "Big night for the anti-establishment candidates":
It was a big night in Iowa Monday for anti-establishment candidates — just not always the one who expected it.

A Republican race that seemed to be heading toward a romp to the nomination by billionaire businessman Donald Trump suddenly has turned into a fierce and more extended battle: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the opening contest of the 2016 campaign, and Trump only narrowly managed to finish ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

In the Democratic race, a hairs-breadth divided former secretary of State Hillary Clinton and challenger Bernie Sanders, a stronger showing by the Vermont senator than seemed possible just a few weeks ago. While Clinton did better than her humiliating third-place showing here in 2008, it means that she once again heads to the New Hampshire primary with something to prove.

In speeches to supporters as the results came in, Clinton declared that she was "breathing a big sigh of relief" but acknowledged that she now faced "really getting into the debate" with Sanders about the country's best course forward. Sanders said to cheers that he had taken on "the most powerful political organization in America" and fought them to "a virtual tie." Trump, speaking with unusual brevity, insisted that he "loved" Iowa and might be back one day to buy a farm.

And Cruz, like Trump a candidate viewed with suspicion by the Republican establishment, declared to cheers, "God bless the great state of Iowa."

The polls were proven wrong: Trump had led in the last dozen statewide surveys.
Keep reading.

Jeb Bush Heckled at Iowa Rally Featuring Paid Seat-Fillers; Scores 6th Place at 2.8 Percent (VIDEO)

At New York Magazine, "Jeb Bush’s Last Rally in Iowa Weighed Down by Dated Conservatism and Reports of Paid Chair-Fillers":
The vibe at Jeb Bush’s downtown Des Moines caucus “briefing” Monday afternoon is upbeat and upscale — but it's taking place under the shadow of reports circulating in the right-wing media that the campaign is paying an army of “seat fillers” $25 an hour to make this rally look full. Paid or unpaid, the attendees are more Young Republican than the Baptist-camp-meeting look that prevailed at the Mike Huckabee rally I attended Sunday.
The caucus results are here, "Republican Iowa GOP Caucus Results 2016." Bush didn't even clear 3 percent.

Watch:



How Ted Cruz Pulled Off Victory in the Iowa Caucuses (VIDEO)

From Philip Bump and Scott Clement , at the Washington Post, "How Ted Cruz won Iowa":


Powered by enormous support from very conservative voters, Ted Cruz surged past expectations to capture a victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday night.

Cruz earned the support of 4 in 10 “very conservative” voters in the state, a group which made up 40 percent of the electorate according to preliminary entrance poll data. Cruz was also backed by 1 out of every 3 evangelical voters -- an important victory in a group that was nearly two-thirds of the electorate.

Donald Trump may have been hampered by two unexpected factors: Weaker than expected performance among new voters and a late surge by Marco Rubio. In the last Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll in Iowa, Trump led Cruz among first-time caucus-goers by 16 points. On Monday night, Trump’s margin among this group was closer to half that.

Rubio earned about as much support from new voters as did Cruz. and was the preferred candidate of about 3 in 10 Iowa Republicans who made up their minds in the last week.

TRUMP FADES WHILE RUBIO CLOSES STRONG

Nearly half of Republican caucus-goers report making their final decision in the week before the caucuses, and the entrance poll shows Rubio performed best among this group. Nearly 3 in 10 of final-week deciders supported Rubio; he garnered about as much support among those deciding in January, but only about 1 in 10 of those who decided earlier than that backed Rubio.

Equally stark was Trump’s weakness among late-deciding voters. Just 14 percent of Republicans who decided in the final week supported Trump, compared with 23 percent of those who decided earlier in January and 40 percent who made their decision in December or earlier.

LARGE EVANGELICAL TURNOUT

Cruz leads among evangelical Christians, who made up over 6 in 10 Republican caucus-goers, their largest share of the vote in recent cycles. Cruz garnered about one-third of the evangelical vote, compared with just over 2 in 10 each for Rubio and Trump. Trump’s margin was similar among non-evangelical Republicans, though they made up fewer than 4 in 10 caucus-goers, lower than 2012 or 2008...
Yes, Rubio did do extremely well, and sucked the air out of Trump's momentum.

But the night really does belong to Ted Cruz. It's impressive, especially considering how he's been taking it from all sides all week, and then proved 'em all wrong.

Donald Trump's a big loser, but he's far from out. This is fantastic because it makes New Hampshire a week from tomorrow a real decision-making and game-changing contest.

Still more.

PREVIOUSLY: "Ted Cruz Beats Donald Trump in Iowa's GOP Caucuses."

No Hillary Clinton Validation! Iowa Democrat Caucuses Too Close to Call! (VIDEO)

Following-up, "Ted Cruz Beats Donald Trump in Iowa's GOP Caucuses."

It's too close to call on the Democrat side.




Expect updates. Hillary's giving her, er, concession speech right now...

Ted Cruz Beats Donald Trump in Iowa's GOP Caucuses

Our long national nightmare is over!

I had on CNN, which had Marco Rubio making a victory speech for his surging 3rd place finish (which is hella impressive). But I missed Donald Trump's concession speech (gonna have to find it on YouTube in a little bit).

Meanwhile, I've got Fox News on now, and we're awaiting Ted Cruz's victory speech. It's really major.

Here's Politico's banner headline, "CRUZ WINS IOWA":
The result is a blow to Donald Trump, whose candidacy is premised on his strength and ability to deliver wins.
More at Instapundit, "NBC CALLS IOWA FOR CRUZ. Trump and Rubio in a very close fight for 2d and 3d place."


Ben Carson Campaign 'Taking a Break' After Iowa Caucuses — UPDATE!

It's been a couple of hours ago now, but CNN's Dana Bash reported that Ben Carson plans to "take a break" after Iowa, to spend time with his family.

I tweeted.


And from Katie Packer:



More at iOTW Report, "Breaking: #BenCarson Will Not Travel to NH, SC in Weeks After Caucuses; Will Go Home Instead."

And at Politico, "Carson isn't quitting after Iowa. He's doing laundry."

Carson's backtracking, via Jennifer Jacobs:


Donald Trump and the Revenge of the Blue Collars

From Laura Ingraham, at LifeZette, "Trump & the Revenge of the Blue Collars":
Mogul connects with frustrated middle class as GOP Establishment lashes out in desperation.

DES MOINES, Iowa — “I think they’re delusional,” said Sam Clovis, Donald Trump’s chief policy adviser and Iowa native, regarding his candidate’s persistent critics at National Review.

“This is absolutely a panic on the part of the Establishment of the Republican Party,” Clovis said.

Indeed, as it looks increasingly likely that the Trump train will steam through Iowa, straight through New Hampshire, South Carolina and on to the GOP nomination, “big government Republicans” are scrambling for relevancy.

Most of them simply refuse to recognize what has happened inside the Republican Party — a total disconnect with the concerns and desires of average Americans.

The main reason for the rise of the insurgent candidates in 2016 isn’t what many of the “experts” believe. It’s not that voters are just drawn to his celebrity or enjoy his insults to the high and mighty. It’s not just that they love his politically incorrect approach to the issues. It’s not just that they enjoy the “fun factor” at his rallies where kids are invited to run around his plane or get free helicopter rides.

The narrative of the GOP presidential primary is best understood by focusing on this one fact: For middle-wage earners in the U.S., the median income in 2014 was 4 percent lower than in 2000.

Pew Research released a report in December that painted a bleak, depressing picture of life for America’s working class. Both political parties — Republicans under George W. Bush, Democrats under Barack Obama — have presided over economies that have left them behind. Worse than that, both Bush and Obama advocated policies that made their economic lives worse in almost every way. And you bet they’re angry.

The rich have done fine. Not surprisingly, they weathered the past two recessions better than any other income group, says Pew. But the subset that suffered the most are some of Trump’s core supporters. Pew found that “adults with no more than a high school diploma lost the most ground economically.”

In other words, Bushism and Obamaism have failed them. The Establishment has failed them. And it was never clear how former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush would govern in a markedly different manner than his brother, given his support for more massive trade deals, more immigration, more wars. That formula has been poisonous to our native-born, middle-income workers.

Whether fair or not, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is seen by most of these same voters as a younger, more politically talented version of Jeb. And they aren’t willing to grant him amnesty for his 2013 immigration push with U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

According to a Gallup analysis of Republican and GOP-leaning independents late last year, Trump had a net favorable score of 36 points among men with no college education, compared to a score of 26 among college graduates. A report from the Public Religion Research Institute released in November also found that a majority — 55 percent — of white Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who support Trump identify as working class. In contrast, self-identified working-class whites only account for roughly a third of other candidates’ supporters.
“We’ve been waiting 30 years for somebody to come along and carry on the legacy of Ronald Reagan, and it hasn’t happened,” Clovis said emphatically.

Batting away his boss’s media assailers, he predicts major Trump victories...
Still more.

PREVIOUSLY: "Outsiders Benefit from Voters' Angst."

Burns, Oregon, Stays Warm and Welcoming as Circus of Outsiders Swarms Residents

Following-up on earlier entries, "LATEST: #Malheur Occupier David Fry Remains at Wildlife Refuge Along with Last Three Holdouts," and "'Hand Up Don't Shoot'! — Dueling LaVoy Finicum Protests at Harney County Courthouse in Burns, Oregon."

And now, at the New York Times, "An Unwanted Circus Descends, and an Oregon Town Strives to Stay Kind":

BURNS, Ore. — Remote Western towns, in midwinter’s grip, definitely have some romance to them. But this one has become a circus tent: A giddy but tense crush of humanity has descended here in rural eastern Oregon, benefiting businesses and swamping them, filling bars, and making motel rooms unattainable amid a bizarre tide of guns, police, reporters and ideologues quoting (at length) from the United States Constitution.

That’s Burns.

There is no question things have been rough here. The armed occupation that began on Jan. 2 at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge outside town has dragged on, and tensions heightened last week with the fatal shooting of one of the most visible occupiers, LaVoy Finicum, by Oregon State Police troopers in an arrest that went bad.

The place is just crazily overrun. Every motel room within 70 miles is taken. Barstools are packed at the Central Pastime Tavern, with journalists and armed antigovernment protesters elbow to elbow, tucking down I.P.A.s and perhaps — for braver souls — the bull testicles on the bar menu. Hard to know, but there are probably also undercover F.B.I. agents now and then playing pool in the back, trying to appear like locals in boots and jeans under the mounted bighorn sheep and buffalo heads.

Residents have argued with each other over what to think about the occupiers and their goals, and they have wounded one another in the process.

Anxieties could ratchet up again this week, with a protest planned for Monday at the Harney County courthouse by self-styled patriot groups angry about Mr. Finicum’s death. The United States Marshals Office also said Sunday that one of the 11 people arrested in the standoff — Shawna Cox — had been released, though the authorities would not provide other details. A judge had previously said Ms. Cox could not leave custody until the occupation had ended.

But here’s the thing: For the most part, Burns has not stopped being warm and welcoming to outsiders, even as that has become harder to do. If you were going to spend nearly the entire month of January in a town of about 2,000 people — isolated by distance in the high eastern Oregon desert, and often with bad weather to boot — you could do a lot worse.

“We just decided to be kind,” said Leah Planinz, who owns Glory Days Pizza with her husband, Nick. She was perhaps talking partly about her philosophy, but more specifically about the restaurant’s overstuffed brown leather couch in the back near the arcade room...
Keep reading.

PREVIOUSLY: "Burns, Oregon: Torn Apart by the Malheur Occupation," and "'Ambushed and Assassinated' — Residents in Burns, Oregon, React to Shooting Death of LaVoy Finicum."

'Hands Up Don't Shoot'! — Dueling LaVoy Finicum Protests at Harney County Courthouse in Burns, Oregon

Following-up from this morning, "LATEST: #Malheur Occupier David Fry Remains at Wildlife Refuge Along with Last Three Holdouts."

Via various sources on Twitter, some tense protesters and counter-protesters:


I'll have more on the protests later tonight, with video if it becomes available. Expect updates...

WATCH: David Yepsen, Former 34-Year Des Moines Register Political Reporter, Says Mild Weather Could Boost Donald Trump Turnout

From WaPo's Robert Costa, on Twitter, "Iowa reporting legend @DavidYepsen says mild weather today could increase turnout, boost Trump (VIDEO)."

Yepson's now the Director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

Dude's got some creds.

Kendall Jenner Rocks Black Calvin Klein Bikini Love Magazine

On Twitter.

And at Love, "Kendall wears black refined bondage bandeau swimsuit top and black refined bondage hipster swim briefs both by Calvin Klein Swimwear."

PREVIOUSLY: "Kendall Jenner, Charlotte McKinney — Sexiest Women of 2015 (VIDEO)."

LATEST: #Malheur Occupier David Fry Remains at Wildlife Refuge Along with Last Three Holdouts

The update, from Julie Turkewitz, of the New York Times:


There's a huge protest going on outside the Harney County Courthouse right now in Burns. I'll have more on that later today, along with all the regular Iowa blogging.

What a day, man.

Outsiders Benefit from Voters' Angst

At the Des Moines Register, "How Iowa caucuses got so angry, ripe for outsiders":
HAMPTON, Ia. — This presidential campaign seethes with the anger and frustration of voters who seem to be sick of whatever they consider to be the corrupt, broken “establishment.”

But not here in this quiet, friendly coffee shop where Rick Santorum emphasizes what has become something of a dirty word: experience.

“I’m sort of making the case that, look, I understand your anger,” said the former Pennsylvania senator and winner of the 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses who now languishes at the bottom of the polls. “I was the anti-establishment candidate last time, and that anger was channeled through me.”

But, he insisted, “Channel your anger in a positive direction.”

“I didn’t sell I was going to blow up Washington four years ago.”

The national front-runner and acknowledged beneficiary of unrest on the right this cycle is Donald Trump, the brash billionaire developer who didn’t formally enter the race until June. He boasts that he has made so much money that self-funding his campaign inoculates him from the influence that big donors wage over candidates.

On the left, 74-year-old Bernie Sanders has electrified millennials as their favorite radical grandfather. He embraces what had been assumed to be the politically lethal adjective "socialist" and proclaims a Woodstock-era distrust of Wall Street.

At least one political expert in Iowa says that he has seen this anger brewing for decades as the caucuses have mushroomed into an international reality TV show: Candidates long have promised relief for the economically disadvantaged, but quickly forget caucusgoers once the circus moves on.

Trump had flirted with Iowa for months in early 2015 as the Republican side of the preseason race churned with the typical series of cattle-call events.

Larry Sailer, a stalwart Santorum supporter from rural Hampton, has been irritated by Trump’s rise.

“It’s the same thing that elected Obama eight years ago,” he shook his head. “The popularity deal.”

Conflating Obama and Trump? It’s as if the outsider allure and celebrity mystique now factoring into these caucuses have scrambled everybody’s political calculus.

'There's a lot of angst out there'

This isn’t how the race was supposed to go. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, with a super PAC tailwind of more than $100 million, was expected to dominate the national race and duel in Iowa with whoever emerged as this cycle's darling of the evangelical right. Hillary Clinton, made wiser by her cabinet experience and the 2008 Obama upset, was expected to wow Iowans on her easy waltz to the nomination.

But here we are in February, with Bush's campaign in single digits, a nail-biter race on either side and a path littered with bad predictions.
Keep reading.

10 Questions That Will Be Answered by Tonight's Iowa Caucuses

So, Jennifer Jacobs likes listicles? Who knew, lol?

At the Des Moines Register:

Celebrity Caucuses, Season 1, has its big finale Monday night in Iowa.

“We’ll all know the answer to Mr. Trump’s question, ‘How stupid are the people of Iowa?’” said longtime Iowa Republican activist Richard Rogers. “That answer will depend upon our individual perspective on the relative merits of the candidates.”

The contest in Iowa on the GOP side is down to Donald Trump, the entertainment entrepreneur whose presidential bid was widely ridiculed until he proved his staying power with voters, and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a conservative superstar famous for his government shutdown tactics.

Still in the spotlight, but in a distant third and fourth place, according to the new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, are Marco Rubio, the Florida U.S. senator referred to three years ago in Time magazine as “The Republican Savior” who could sell the GOP on a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants; and Ben Carson, a brain surgeon whose skills were featured in a movie called “Gifted Hands.”

The Democrats are down to a duel between one of the best-known women in America, former first lady and former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and the upstart liberal rock star Bernie Sanders, a Vermont U.S. senator whose call for a political revolution has inspired unexpectedly strong support.

The Iowa caucuses are just the first round of voting in the 2016 presidential race, but they’re disproportionately influential — and the whole political world is waiting for the results.

Here are some of the questions that will be answered Monday night...
Continue reading.

MSNBC to Hold Democrat Debate in New Hampshire on Thursday (VIDEO)

So, the RNC cancelled NBC's initially-scheduled debate for February 26 in Houston, Texas. And now the DNC's going with MSNBC for its Thursday night debate at the University of New Hampshire in Durham. That's a weird --- even freaky --- kind of partisan symmetry.

In any case, at the Boston Herald, "MSNBC to host Democratic debate in N.H. on Thursday."

And Kasie Hunt reports below, for the least popular cable network, with Steve Kornacki.

It's scheduled for Thursday at 9:00pm Eastern, and will be just the second of the Democrat debates that's been in held during a prime time weeknight slot (four have been held so far, and two were held on October 13 and November 14, a Saturday and a Sunday, respectively, on the weekends).

The Sanders campaign was really upset, thinking the DNC was putting its weight on the scales for Clinton, and apparently negotiations over the additional four debates got testy.

Watch:


Deal of the Day: 66 Audio BTS+ Bluetooth Sports Headphone

Today only, at Amazon, 66 Audio BTS+ Bluetooth Sports Headphone [2015] - Wireless Stereo Music Streaming and Hands-free Calling w/ Noise Canceling Mic feat. Bluetooth 4.0+ Multipoint.

Pretty wicked headphones.

Plus, good anytime, that Sasha Issenberg book I've been raving about all morning, The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns.

BONUS: From Robert Service, The End of the Cold War: 1985-1991.

Fierce Winds Blew Through Sacramento Overnight, Downing Trees and Causing Damage (VIDEO)

Here's more on Sunday's storm, this time from up north.

Via KCRA News 3 Sacramento:



PREVIOUSLY: "Fierce Storm Hit San Diego; One Person Killed When Tree Falls on Car (VIDEO)," and "Fierce Winds Reach 115 MPH Near Castaic; Snarled Traffic Closes Grapevine (VIDEO)."

Tareena Shakil, Who Took Toddler Son to Syria, Sentenced to Six Years for Joining Islamic State

She traveled to Syria and posted pics of her toddler son with a Kalashnikov.

At trial, the jury saw photos of her wearing at terrorist's balaclava.

Six years isn't enough, shoot.

At the BBC, "Tareena Shakil jailed for six years for joining IS."

LATEST: Donald Trump Leads Ted Cruz 31-to-24 Percent in Last Iowa Poll Before Caucuses

As if we needed another poll, heh.

At the Hill, "Quinnipiac poll: First-time caucusgoers boost Trump, Sanders in Iowa."

And just now, at Quinnipiac, "First-Timers Put Trump Ahead in #Iowa GOP Caucus; Sanders Needs First-Timers to Tie Clinton in Dem Caucus."

Check back here for all the breaking news throughout the day. Shoot, I've been beating the "bigs" to the latest news all weekend, lol.

ADDED: Oops, I better check my ego here, lol. Ed Morrissey's got an analysis, at Hot Air, "Final Iowa Q-poll: Trump, Sanders up thanks to first-timers."

WATCH: Bernie Sanders Goes Negative? Hillary Clinton's Private Email Server a 'Very Serious Issue' (VIDEO)

Well, he's not going full-on negative, but he's not blowing off questions about Hillary's email scandal either.

And the Clinton campaign has been merciless in attacking Sanders, and it's just the beginning.

Jake Tapper asked him about his personal security detail on the campaign trail, indicating that he's been receiving death threats, which was something the "democratic socialist" thought it was better not to talk about.

Man, this is getting serious folks.

Watch, via CNN (the email comments come toward the end of the interview, after 7:30 minutes):


Florida Driver Pulls Over Cop for Speeding (VIDEO)

At the Orlando Sentinel, "Florida driver pulls over police officer for speeding."

And watch, via CBS News 2 New York:



Voters on 'Ideological Edges' to Set the Tone for 2016

I don't think the millions of white working-class voters providing (most of) the enormous surge of support for Donald Trump's campaign are on the "ideological edge."

On the other hand, 43 percent of Democrats self-identify in recent polling as "socialists," an ideological stance that's by definition to the far-left of the ideological spectrum.

But if you're a leftist, being in favor of secure borders and free markets makes you on "the fringe," or so we're told at the New York Times.

And it's not "may set the tone." Fringe leftists are definitely setting the tone, and the Trump campaign is frankly a push back against that monstrous ideological tendency.

See, "In Iowa, Voters on the Edges May Set Tone for Primaries":
DES MOINES — Iowa, widely derided for being unlike the rest of the United States, was supposed to be irrelevant this year as the presidential race became nationalized — thanks to widely viewed televised debates and the rise of social media.

But as the Iowa caucuses loom on Monday — the first votes after 1,500 candidate rallies, 60,000 TV ads and a nail-biting tightening of the polls here — the state’s voters are poised to play perhaps their most significant role ever in both parties’ nominating contests. And their embrace of candidates on the ideological fringes has amplified a national grass-roots rebellion against establishment politicians.

Both Democrats and Republicans have seen their presumptive nominees of a year ago — deeply experienced, proven political leaders — brushed aside by Iowans in favor of idol-smashing outsiders.

“There’s a tremendous amount of anti-establishment, anti-Washington sentiment here, and I would not be surprised if an outsider on both sides wins,” said Gov. Terry E. Branstad, a Republican, who has exerted himself in an unheard-of effort to derail one of his own party’s front-runners, Senator Ted Cruz.

Voters on the ideological edges, who dominate both parties in Iowa, have made Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, and Donald J. Trump and Mr. Cruz, whose views are anathema to Republican leadership, the standard-bearers of the left and the right.

The embrace of Mr. Sanders and Mr. Trump, visible nationally in huge rallies, has stirred Iowa’s latent Midwest populism, with voters angry about the hollowing out of the middle class, Wall Street greed and the corrupting influence of money in politics. It has created two insurgents who in some ways are opposite sides of the same coin.

The policies of President Obama have added accelerant to the fire, with the far left unhappy he did not go far enough, and the right convinced he radically changed the United States.

“There’s a very disaffected segment of Republican voters and Democratic voters who just want to throw ’em all out,” said David Redlawsk, a political scientist at Rutgers University who wrote a book about the Iowa caucuses. “These particular voters have been told for several cycles, ‘All you have to do is vote for me, and it will be 100 percent different.’ It never is. Sanders and Trump are both benefiting.”

The results of Monday’s caucuses, which will take place in 1,681 precincts across Iowa, ride on such concrete factors as candidates’ get-out-the-vote efforts — but also on intangibles like voters’ perception of who is catching fire at the last minute, and even on the weather. Campaigns were anxiously checking forecasts amid reports of a snowstorm arriving late Monday, but expected that the weather would hold enough to encourage turnout, which could give an edge to the two candidates with large support from first-time voters, Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders. A victory for Mr. Trump, who has drawn thousands to his rallies here, would devastate Mr. Cruz. The senator has deployed waves of volunteers and sought to visit all 99 counties in Iowa to mobilize evangelical Christians, the core of a conservative coalition that he has built along with Tea Partiers and libertarians...
Even Ted Cruz is not on the "ideological fringe." One of the most interesting things at that GOP debate on Thursday was Megyn Kelly hammering Cruz for his past prodigious support for immigration amnesty. But, again, if you're to the right of center, you're on the "ideological fringe," according to the idiot mandarins of our collectivist press.

Still more, FWIW.

Tour Seville, Spain, with Brazilian Model Hellyda Cavallaro (VIDEO)

Via Playboy, "Photographer Ana Dias Takes Us to Seville with Model Hellyda Cavallaro - Playboy Abroad (VIDEO)."

Laura Ingraham and Charles Krauthammer on What to Expect in Iowa (VIDEO)

Watch, at Fox News.

Matt Lewis Has a New Book Out, Too Dumb to Fail

Check it out, at Amazon, Too Dumb to Fail: How the GOP Betrayed the Reagan Revolution to Win Elections (and How It Can Reclaim Its Conservative Roots).

That reminds me of a book from (just over) 10 years ago, Adrian Wooldridge's, The Right Nation: Conservative Power in America.

You remember the "America's a center-right nation" argument the left was pushing back against so hard when Obama came to office? I think it's going to be back in vogue this year.

Shop for Valentine's Day Gifts

Well, it's coming up in two weeks, although it's the last thing I've been thinking about, which is not to say it isn't important.

I used to take candy and flowers to my wife at work when I was in grad school. My wife worked the fragrance counter at Robinson's department store back then, and having the husband drop of the Valentine's presents like that gained my wife some high creds with her female colleagues, heh.

At Amazon, Shop Amazon - Top Valentine's Day Gifts.

MORE: Shop for gym bags and running shoes.

Hillary Clinton's Campaign Manager Spent Final Hours Knocking on Doors in Iowa

Boy, they're really trying to avoid the mistakes of the 2008 campaign, heh!

At Boomberg, "Robby Mook Returns to Field Organizing for Final Iowa Push":
With hours to go until his boss faces voters for the first time in eight years, Robby Mook was doing the same, knocking on doors in a small corner of a Des Moines suburb.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager could’ve spent Saturday afternoon holed up in headquarters, shuttling around the state with the candidate or schmoozing politicos in the lobby of the Marriott. Instead, he was making his way through a solidly middle class Urbandale neighborhood, checking in with committed supporters.

“Hey! My name’s Robby. I’m here with Hillary Clinton’s campaign,” he says once it's clear that the person answering the door is the person on the list of confirmed supporters that he picked up from a nearby field office, just as any volunteer would. “I was just coming by to remind you about the caucus on Monday.”

Though two Bloomberg journalists spent about 45 minutes watching Mook visit 15 houses on a gray but warm-for-January afternoon, it wasn’t just a photo-op. He would’ve been doing this without reporters watching him and planned to do it again on Sunday and Monday, schedule permitting. In all, people at eight houses answered their doors, five of whom said they would be caucusing for Clinton. At one door, a man supporting former Florida Governor Jeb Bush said that his wife—who was out of the house when Mook visited—was the Clinton supporter. At another, a man identified as a Clinton supporter seemed to be engaged in a tense moment with his son. A woman said she and her husband were Clinton supporters but that she had a doctor's appointment and may not be able to make it.

Mook has built his career on field work—the collection and analysis of meticulous data. He proved himself as her 2008 state director in Nevada, Ohio and Indiana. And when it was time to build her 2016 team, the lessons of being out-organized by Barack Obama in Iowa and beyond made Mook, a 36-year-old Vermont native, Clinton’s choice for the job.

Clinton had a slim three-point lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, in the final Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, conducted Jan. 26-29. With the race so tight, both campaigns are determined to get their low-hanging fruit – committed supporters – to caucus sites. The Sanders campaign said its volunteers knocked on close to 77,000 doors on Friday and Saturday, while the Clinton campaign knocked on more than 125,000 doors over the weekend.

“Part of this is just simply having a human interaction where we remind them," Mook says while walking along a winding residential street that changed names three times in the span of a few dozen houses. “But a really important part of this is actively making a plan with them. So if I get someone in person, I want to make sure that they’ve made sure they’ve thought about where they’re gonna leave from to go to the caucus, how they’re getting there and if they’re bringing anyone with them. We know that if they have a plan in place, they’re more likely to show up.”
The Iowa caucuses have never been more important, which is amazing, considering it's the most intense style of retail politics you could have, and we live in an era of the highest electronic technology we've ever seen. But with the campaigns on both sides too close to call, the ground game is the be all end all of 2016.

More.

Check back for more throughout the day...

Victory Lab

Back in September 2012, I was with my wife and kids in Las Vegas, taking a break from blogging, if I recall, and reading all kinds of hard-copy newspapers. I remember reading this incredible article on the nuts and bolts of the modern presidential campaigns in the New York Times, but then later lost track of where I put the paper. It turns out the piece was by Sasha Issenberg, who had the awesome piece at Bloomberg yesterday, blogged here, "In Iowa, Hillary Clinton Looking to Avoid Mistakes of the Past."

The publisher's pitched this book to me a few times in professional newsletters at work, although I've yet to read it. School's starting back up on Febuary 8th, and my reading output's declined this last week or so as the caucuses have neared. But this Issenberg book's going to the top of my political science reading list.

Here, The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns.

Issenberg's on Twitter for Victory Lab here.

Office of Bureau of Land Management, Burns, Oregon, Flies the Gadsden Flag (PHOTO)

The Marines and the Navy have flown the flag since 1775, although it seems like BLM's exactly the opposite of what that flag stands for: "Don’t Tread On Me"

Via OPB's Amanda Peacher, on Twitter:


Europe's Civil War Breaks Out: The Battle for Stockholm's Train Station (VIDEO)

From Pamela Geller, on Twitter:
In an event that may very well be the spark to the outbreak of Europe’s civil war, a young, beautiful social worker, Alexandra Mezher, 22, was brutally stabbed to death by Muslim migrants at the child migrant centre where she worked.

Swedish police warn that Stockholm’s main train station has become unsafe after being “taken over.” A mob of Swedes took matters into their own hands.

As I predicted for months, the Europeans will either go quietly into the dark, destructive night, or they will fight back. The weak, the scared are hiding in their homes, and then there are the fighters.

Swedish towns have become terror hubs. Lawlessness is rampant, violent crimes skyrocket. There is this now constant state of violence, terror and fear.

It begins, appropriately enough, at a major train station. I say appropriately, because it was at scores of railway stations in Europe that the New Year’s Eve terror attacks took place. Mass sexual attacks, raping and robbing of non-Muslim women. Christians in Sweden have been warned, in blood-chilling messages, “convert or die,” with beheadings threatened; “We will bomb your rotten corpses afterwards.”

Swedish police warn that Stockholm’s main train station is now overrun by migrant teen gangs “stealing and groping girls.” Hundreds of Muslim migrant youth are living on the streets in Stockholm. They attack security guards at the main station. Police say they sexually assault girls and “slap them in the face when they protest.”

“Gangs of young, male refugees over-powered women and children at a train station in Stockholm, Sweden in recent days, and then robbed and groped them. Some of the migrants, who may be as young as 9, roam the streets day and night, according to Daily Mail. They have been offered help from Swedish Authorities, but have refused it, living in the streets instead.”
More at Pamela's blog.

PREVIOUSLY: "Alexandra Mezher, 22, Swedish Social Worker, Stabbed to Death by 15-Year-Old Muslim 'Refugee' (VIDEO)."

'You talk to Iowans about this extremely long group of presidential candidates that are going all over the state, and their eyes glaze over sometimes...'

Yes, and the campaign's just beginning for the rest of the country, heh.

Watch, here's Pat Kessler reporting for WCCO News 4 Minneapolis, "Presidential Candidates Make Final Push Before Iowa Caucuses."

Former MSNBC schlock jock Ed Schultz (now working for the Putin propaganda channel Russia Today) can seen in the background, right before Kessler interviews Islamic congressman Keith Ellison, who's apparently campaigning for Bernie Sanders. Naturally, they'd be out campaigning for the hardline communist.

Fierce Winds Reach 115 MPH Near Castaic; Snarled Traffic Closes Grapevine (VIDEO)

Following-up, "Fierce Storm Hit San Diego; One Person Killed When Tree Falls on Car (VIDEO)."

It's bad north of Los Angeles as well.

At LAT, "Toppled tree kills one person in San Diego; winds clocked at 115 mph near Castaic."

And watch, at CBS News 2 Los Angeles:




Fierce Storm Hits San Diego; One Person Killed When Tree Falls on Car (VIDEO)

I had no idea it would be this bad when I posted Kristen Keogh's weather forecast yesterday, and neither did she.

Here's the latest, at the San Diego Union-Tribune, "Fierce storm unleashes on San Diego":


A fierce Pacific storm brought heavy rain and wild winds to San Diego Sunday, causing power outages, interrupting -- then delaying -- the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open golf tournament at Torrey Pines, and toppling trees including one that killed a motorist in Pacific Beach.

Winds gusted to about 50 mph along the coast, and were strong enough to uproot the 80-foot-tall tree in Pacific Beach that crushed three parked cars and one passing by on Ingraham Street near Fortuna Avenue, causing fatal injuries to a person inside.

San Diego Fire-Rescue Department Capt. Joe Amador called the incident “unimaginable,” noting that the car could have been easily missed by the falling tree.

“Even five seconds one way or the other and this wouldn't have happened,” Amador said. “Our thoughts and hearts are with the family. We're in the life-saving business and it's hard when it doesn’t turn out that way.”

The fatal accident was just one of the instances that had emergency crews scrambling across the county. Falling trees damaged cars and homes, roadways were flooded or littered with debris and crashes clogged busy thoroughfares.

The storm arrived in on-again off-again waves that had golfers at Torrey Pines seeking shelter from 40 mph winds and rain one moment, then returning to the squishy course the next to play under blue skies. But the winds wouldn't relent. The media tent eventually had to be evacuated because it appeared on the verge of taking flight. At 3:30 p.m., tournament organizers postponed all play, saying they'd finish the competition Monday...
More at that top link.

Democrats Neck and Neck in Iowa (VIDEO)

Watch, at ABC News, "Democrats Neck and Neck With Caucuses One Day Away."
New poll numbers show Hillary Clinton with a slight lead in Iowa, but Sen. Bernie Sanders points to new fundraising data as proof of a possible upset.
And from yesterday, "Bernie Sanders Draws Massive Over-Capacity Crowd in Iowa City, Iowa (VIDEO)."

Sunday, January 31, 2016

Is Donald Trump for Real?

The proof is in the pudding, as they say.

At the Washington Post, "Is Donald Trump for real? We’ll start getting an answer in Iowa":
DUBUQUE, Iowa — As Republican front-runner Donald Trump arrived in Iowa this weekend for a final burst of campaigning ahead of the Monday caucuses, he did so in his usual over-the-top fashion: rolling his jet to a stop in front of an airport hangar filled with supporters in this eastern Iowa river town.

The arrival — set to the theme song from the movie “Air Force One” — captured the surreal theatrics that have defined Trump’s candidacy, attracting attention in a way that prompts many to ask: “Is this for real? Is he for real?”

In any other election year, with any other candidate, Trump’s consistently high poll numbers and massive rally crowds would earn him the title of presumed nominee. But this year is unlike any other and Trump is unlike any other GOP candidate — a thrice-married billionaire real estate developer who has never held elected office, wears white shoes to the Iowa State Fair, curses at his rallies and gives rides to children in his Trump-emblazoned helicopter.

Yet Trump is on the cusp of something historic: A candidate who has broken nearly every rule of traditional campaigning is favored to win the Iowa caucuses and several primary contests to follow. The prospect has continued to baffle political pundits, strategists and party leaders, many of whom don’t seem to want to believe what is happening until they see some proof. The Monday caucuses provide Trump with the opportunity to provide some.

“It’s very frustrating because if anybody had the numbers and the turnout and the support that Donald Trump has, I don’t think the media would have any problem saying the normal stuff — that he’s a shoo-in,” said Ted Hacker, 39, who lives in Dubuque and started a trucking company with his wife a year ago. He plans to caucus for the first time on Monday, casting his vote for Trump in hopes of proving that the candidate’s supporters aren’t just fans looking to be entertained. “It’s very frustrating.”
It's all about the turnout, and after reading that piece from Sasha Issenberg, I'm even less sure about Iowa than ever. It's crazy!

But keep reading.

Malheur Defendant Shawna Cox Is Close Family Friend and the Bundys' Live-In Secretary

Well, perhaps this is something folks might have been wondering about.

At the New York Times, "Who is Shawna Cox, the only woman arrested with Bundy’s Oregon militia?":

 photo 1035x1294-AP_265844010493_zpsdkuyonie.jpg

Thus far, details about [Shawna] Cox are scant, but it is known that she drove from South Utah to East Oregon to join the militia, which hopes to pressure the government to hand federal lands over to local ranchers, loggers, and miners. The protesters — who call themselves “Citizens for Constitutional Freedom,” though they have become known on Twitter as “Y’all Qaeda” — seized the wildlife reserve after a court extended the sentence of Dwight and Steve Hammond, two ranchers jailed for setting fire to federal lands. The movement was spearheaded by Ammon and Ryan Bundy, whose father, Cliven, staged an armed resistance when federal officials tried to stop him from grazing his cattle on government pastures.

A 2014 WND article describes Cox as a “close family friend who has become the Bundys’ live-in secretary.” She spoke out in defense of Cliven Bundy in 2014 after he publicly claimed that African Americans “abort their young children, they put their young men in jail, because they never learned how to pick cotton.” Cox told WND that Bundy is not a racist, and that “We believe slavery is horrible!”

After the takeover of the wildlife reserve, Cox appears to have acted as a spokeswoman for “Citizens for Constitutional Freedom.” On January 4, during a protest in support of the Hammonds, Cox read a letter of grievances from the group, demanding that the verdict against the Hammonds be reviewed. “We the people of these states united, insist that you immediately assemble an independent evidential hearing board,” she said. “We require your thoughtful response within five days of the date of this notice.” Cox also asserted that the letter had been signed by “tens of thousands” of people from across the country, “including Hawaii.”

A few days before her arrest, Cox gave an interview from within the occupied federal building. “When the people come and take their rightful position, then we can go home,” she said. “They are coming; it’s just taking a little while.”
PREVIOUSLY: "VIDEO: Ammon Bundy's Attorneys Address the Media Outside Mark O. Hatfield U.S. Courthouse in Portland, January 29, 2016."

Whoa! Donald Trump Downplays Significance of Hawkey State on Eve of Iowa Caucuses (VIDEO)

Well, he rattles off all the states where he's leading in the polls.

There's no context, but still. Ruptly says "Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump named states that he expects to win his party's nomination, while speaking at a campaign rally in Sioux City, Sunday, in an attempt to ease concerns about his performance in the upcoming Iowa caucus."

Watch:


#IowaCaucuses — Weijia Jiang Reports!

This is great!

Via CBS News 4 Miami:



LATEST: Busy Signals — Phones and Internet Communications Down at Malheur Refuge #OregonStandoff

Not too much to report.

It's Sunday, and not a whole lot of LEOs have been on the scene.

Jennifer Dowling reports, for KOIN News 6 Portland:



PREVIOUSLY: "LATEST: Malheur Holdouts Say the FBI Has Cut Their Phone and Internet Communications," and "WATCH: Authorities Establish New Roadblock at #Malheur National Wildlife Reserve (VIDEO)."

WATCH: Bernie Sanders Draws Massive Over-Capacity Crowd in Iowa City, Iowa (VIDEO)

Hey man, "Feel the Bern."

Via WaPo, "Bernie Sanders’s latest eye-popping crowd in Iowa."



RELATED: "Can Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Turn Out the Vote?"

Behind-the-Scenes Sneak Peek — 2016 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue

Following-up, "Countdown to This Week's Release of 2016 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue."

I'll be posting the release of the new issue as soon as it's out. Who cares about the Iowa caucuses?!!



Donald Trump Slams Ted Cruz Over 'Dishonest' ObamaCare Attack (VIDEO)

I posted video last night, "WATCH: Ted Cruz Slams Donald Trump and Marco Rubio at Campaign Event in Iowa (VIDEO)."

We're gonna see if the genuine "cuckservatives" flood the caucuses for Cruz tomorrow, lol.

Here's The Donald:


In Iowa, Hillary Clinton Looking to Avoid Mistakes of the Past

She should be good, if they have as vaunted a ground game as everyone says.

At Bloomberg, "Clinton’s Plan to Win Iowa: Do the Opposite of 2008":

Avoiding the mistakes of the past—and emulating Obama—are the Clinton campaign’s twin caucus obsessions. But are they fighting the last war?

Last spring, as he was just beginning to develop a plan for Hillary Clinton’s campaign in Iowa, Michael Halle asked for help from some of the people who had the clearest view of her defeat there last time. He invited Clinton’s seven Iowa regional field directors, all of whom had moved on from her political orbit, on a conference call for what amounted to a highly delayed postmortem of her 2008 organization in the state. During the call, what stuck most vividly with Halle was the question he learned that Clinton organizers had put to Iowans when they had their first interactions with them over the phone or at doorsteps in 2007. Will you support Hillary? they had asked.

When volunteers went back to the voters shortly before the caucus to provide them with information on their precinct locations, those who had earlier identified as Clinton supporters were flaking at an unexpectedly high rate. Now they were not ready to declare themselves caucus-goers. When they were forced to think through the specific demands that entailed—to declare their support in public, at a scheduled time, before all their neighbors—many backed off, or responded with a flat “no.”

Over seven years, a mythology has emerged about Clinton’s disregard for the peculiar folkways of Iowa caucus. There were the canonical examples of Clinton’s brushing off local expectation of collegial intimacy, like the vivid descriptions of her regal entourage of imperious staffers more focused on their BlackBerries than the citizens in their midst, or the Bell 222 that the campaign dubbed the “Hill-a-copter” as it shuttled her among farm towns. Then there were the almost comically indulgent expenditures, from the hundreds of snow shovels the campaign gifted to residents who had weathered many winters without any politician’s munificence to the nearly $100,000 in caucus-night sandwich platters that Clinton purchased from the Hy-Vee supermarket chain, even though many counties expressly forbid food at precinct locations. (After learning about the catering order from a canvasser who visited a Hy-Vee executive, Obama campaign officials subsequently contacted every county chair and reminded them to enforce their rules.) In hindsight, Clinton’s approach to Iowa was part of an institutionalized disdain for the caucus process nationwide that ultimately helped to doom her first candidacy for president....

The assiduous commitment Clinton has made to not repeat her mistakes in Iowa is the prime reason her advisers can remain sanguine about their prospects in the face of another ascendant challenger drawing enormous crowds and small-dollar contributions from idealistic liberals. The aspect of Barack Obama’s campaign from which Clinton has learned the most is not the hope and change, but the nuts and bolts—and the better one understands the Iowa Democratic caucus, one realizes that it, more than any other venue in American electoral politics, sets those two objectives at odds with one another. “This was a big input piece from activists, from former precinct captains last time,” Halle remembered, in a conference room that was, like all the spaces at headquarters, named for one of the state’s cities. “‘One, they need to understand Iowa. Two, they need to understand the caucus,’” Halle said.
That's a great piece of political writing.

More.

WATCH: Authorities Establish New Roadblock at #Malheur National Wildlife Reserve (VIDEO)

Something's happening.

Here's my earlier entry, "LATEST: Malheur Holdouts Say the FBI Has Cut Their Phone and Internet Communications."

Not sure what's going on, although authorities towed a silver van out of the refuge.

Watch, via the Portland Oregonian:



Expect updates...

Donald Trump Holds Massive 25 Percent Lead in Latest Franklin Pierce-Boston Herald Poll

I love the headline too at the Globe, "Franklin Pierce-Herald Poll: Rivals need Iowa win to catch Trump, Sanders in N.H.":

GOP presidential challengers Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton desperately need breakthroughs in Iowa tomorrow to overcome expanding leads held by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll reveals.

Trump has a massive 25-point advantage over his nearest rival Cruz while Sanders has grown his lead over Clinton to a 57-37 percent margin , according to the poll of likely Granite State primary voters conducted Jan. 26-30.

A surprise in the Iowa caucuses tomorrow could still shake things up in New Hampshire’s Feb. 9 primary, especially on the GOP side, where 44 percent of voters say they could still change their minds. One-third of Trump supporters say they haven’t made a firm decision.

But a dramatic shift in the Democratic race appears less likely, with 78 percent of likely primary voters reporting they won’t change their minds. That makes Clinton’s hopes for another comeback an even bigger climb, even if she beats the upstart Vermont senator in Iowa.

Trump now gets 38 percent of the vote in New Hampshire — up from 33 percent a week ago — while Cruz has stalled at 13 percent, according to the poll of 439 likely GOP primary voters.

Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush are getting 10 percent, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich has dropped to fifth place at 8 percent, according to the poll. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, businesswoman Carly Fiorina and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul are winning just 5 percent support, the poll shows.

Trump’s popularity has remained steady in the Granite State, with 56 percent of GOP voters saying they hold a favorable view of the billionaire business mogul...
Keep reading.

Kristen Keogh's Sunday Forecast

We're getting some rain, and snow in the local mountains.

It's great!

Via ABC 10 News San Diego:


Sunday Cartoons

At Flopping Aces, "Sunday Funnies."

Branco Cartoons photo Torn-600-LI_zpsfkpku23m.jpg

Also, at Reaganite Republican, "Reaganite's Sunday Funnies," and Theo Spark's, "Cartoon Roundup."

Cartoon Credit: Legal Insurrection, "Branco Cartoon – Right to Vote."

Can Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Turn Out the Vote?

Following-up from earlier, "Turnout Is Name of the Game in Monday's Iowa Caucuses."

As I said, "A lot of theories are going to be tested, and a lot of hopes are riding on the outcomes."

Here's Dan Balz, at the Washington Post, "The big Iowa test: Can Trump and Sanders turn enthusiasm into votes?":
DES MOINES — With campaign events all across Iowa on Saturday overflowing with voters, the Republican and Democratic contests have been reduced to the same question: Can the muscle of traditional and methodical organizing overcome the energy and enthusiasm of a pair of unconventional candidates in this unconventional race?

After a year in which voter anger and dissatisfaction with Washington have propelled insurgent candidates and shaped the political terrain, Iowa voters will offer the first clues as to whether what has taken place up to now was an aberration or a new normal in American politics that will continue to course through the election battles until November.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton is seeking to fend off an unexpectedly strong challenge from Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.). Among Republicans, the principal battle pits Donald Trump, who has broken almost every rule of how to run an Iowa campaign, against Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.), whose campaign is a textbook example of what is known here as “the Iowa way.”

The latest Des Moines Register-Bloomberg Politics poll, released Saturday night, showed Trump leading the Republican race at 28 percent, followed by Cruz at 23 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 15 percent and Ben Carson at 10 percent. Among Democrats, Clinton held a statistically insignificant lead over Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent. The Iowa poll has had an excellent track record in past caucus cycles, particularly in its final measurement of the race.

The most important unknown in the final hours was how many Iowans will turn out for the caucuses Monday evening. The bigger the numbers, the better for Trump and Sanders, according to projections by several campaigns.

Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said he “can’t envision” his party not beating its previous turnout record of about 122,000, set four years ago. He said telephones at party headquarters have been ringing constantly for the past week, day and night, with people wanting to know how and where to caucus. “It is just nonstop here,” he said. “We’ve got literally hundreds of calls a day. . . . I’ve got a hunch a lot of these folks are going to show up.”

Trump returned to Iowa in grand fashion, roaring his private jet low over a huge crowd in Dubuque before rolling to a stop at a hangar. He implored the crowd to go to the caucuses. “I don’t care what it is,” he said. “If you don’t get out, we’re wasting time. . . . We have a chance to do something so historic.”
More.

PREVIOUSLY: "Turnout Is Name of the Game in Monday's Iowa Caucuses."