Ukraine, the New Right, and Defending the West

 From Ben Domenech, at the Transom:

What we see illuminated in the rapid shift of Americans on Ukraine is actually the pathway toward a moderate, realist, interest-based American national-security approach that falls into neither the cul de sac of the New Right, nor the dead end utopianism of neoconservatism. An America that has no messianic mission, does not automatically assume that it can do anything, and also possesses the self-confidence and competence to act as a force for good in the wider world, is an America that reflects what Americans actually want. It is an America where a real discussion of the national interest can be had, without the obscuring and distorting priors inflicted by neocons and New Right alike...

RTWT. 

Gary Kasparov, Winter Is Coming

At Amazon, Gary Kasparov, Winter Is Coming: Why Vladimir Putin and the Enemies of the Free World Must Be Stopped.

Ukraine Fighters Take Out Second Russian General on the Battlefield

There's video here, but I can't verify the legitimacy of the account. Could be some random propaganda page: "Another Russian General Vitaly Gerasimov Killed In Kharkiv, Ukraine Defence Ministry Claims."

A Ukraine sniper took out Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov last week, and now they've gotten Gerasimov. 

At the Guardian U.K., "Vitaly Gerasimov: second Russian general killed, Ukraine defence ministry claims Ukrainian intelligence says major general in Russia’s 41st army died outside Kharkiv along with other senior officers." 

And a thread, from Christo Grozev on Twitter, "Jesus, Ukraine just killed Gen. Maj. Vitaly Gerassimov, chief of staff of the 41 Army. At Kharkiv. Russia, if you're listening: delete your army."

Click through at that one. Full-blown security failure. All the talk about how Russia's returned to "great power status." What a freakin' joke. 

As Soon as Political Outsider Takes Office We Have Cheap Gas, Cheap Food, Become Energy Independent, and No Wars

Via Instapundit, "YEAH, PRETTY MUCH":

Ukraine's Refugee Crisis: The Crush to Flee Karhkiv

A humanitarian disaster.

Posted by NBC's Richard Engel, "Ukrainians desperate to leave Kharkiv."

Leftist Fury Erupts Over Emma Camp's Op-Ed Piece at the New York Times

Now they'll try to cancel her. (*Eye-roll.*)

At Fox News, "Liberals erupt at college student's NYT op-ed about being afraid to speak out on campus.”

ADDED: At Hot Air, "NY Times published an opinion piece on campus self-censorship and progressives are proving the author's point."

How War in Ukraine Drives Up Inflation at U.S. Farms, Supermarkets, Retailers

At the Wall Street Journal, "The global supply chain is slow, but the economic fallout from the invasion of Ukraine is swiftly raising prices for producers and consumers world-wide":

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set the stage for faster-rising consumer prices, with the mayhem of war driving up manufacturing costs for food, consumer goods and machinery in places far from the battlefield.

The conflict is stressing an already strained global supply chain, and its economic impact will likely be felt in households world-wide, at supermarkets, retailers and the gas pump. While higher costs will take time to work their way from producers to consumers, executives and analysts expect the war’s fallout to worsen inflation already stoked by shortages of goods and workers.

“It seems to be overshadowing everything now and reversing the improvement that we were seeing,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

The short-term consequences have been serious. Grain markets recently hit a 14-year high in anticipation of a diminished harvest in Ukraine, which would raise costs to feed the world’s cattle and poultry.

Aluminum prices rose in anticipation of sanctions on Russia, a major supplier of the metal used in soda cans, aircraft and construction, as well as on fears that Moscow could halt exports.

Crude oil prices rose 25% last week, to more than $118 a barrel, the highest level since 2013. Gas prices have gone up an average of 43.7 cents a gallon in the U.S., according to data from price tracker GasBuddy. On Sunday, the national average was $4.02 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.

On Friday, Russia, one of the world’s largest suppliers of fertilizers such as potash and nitrogen, said it could suspend exports. Farmers and consumers will bear the cost of any prolonged shortage. Ingka Group, which owns and operates furniture giant IKEA’s stores, said Thursday that prices would rise more than expected this year after it warned the war in Ukraine was causing serious supply chain disruptions. IKEA said its global prices would rise about 12%, up from earlier estimates of 9%.

Some analysts and company officials caution that it is too early to know exactly what the long-term effects of the war will have on the global economy, and not all think the conflict in Ukraine will have a major impact on supply chains. Businesses have rebounded from global conflicts in the past and can mitigate the effects by finding alternative suppliers elsewhere.

But the invasion of Ukraine has already slowed the journey of goods traveling by various means. Many Western shipping companies are steering clear of Russian ports, an important Asia-to-Europe rail line is used less, much of the Black Sea remains out of bounds and many air cargo flights are either banned from or are avoiding Russian airspace, a key route for goods moving between Europe and Asia. Shipping and airfreight rates have moved higher.

Rising energy and food prices are only the most obvious pressure points for consumers. “Now that we are seeing increases across other commodities, like aluminum, palladium, copper,” Ms. Bostjancic said, “that is going to feed through to some degree to consumer prices as well.”

Ukraine industries, including car-part manufacturers, breweries and an alumina refinery, have halted production. A giant steel mill owned by ArcelorMittal SA, one of the country’s largest industrial enterprises, closed Thursday. That and other plant closures in the country, along with Russia’s difficulty in getting some of its steel out, are expected to accelerate already rising steel prices...

Still more.

 

Make America Florida

From Stephen Green, at Instapundit, "Florida Will Be First State to Recommend Against COVID-19 Vax for Healthy Kids."

'Paths That Would Eventually Lead to American Involvement to Help Protect Ukraine'

It's Kori Shake, at the Bulwark, "How we could be drawn into the war on behalf of the Ukrainians."

Ukraine Parents Rush 18th-Month-Old Baby to Hospital; Boy Hit by Shrapnel Amid Russian Shelling of Port City of Mariupol (VIDEO)

Devastating tragedy. Poor thing didn't make it.

The photos and video are heartbreaking.

The video's here, it's graphic. 

And at Sky News, "Ukraine invasion: Young mother collapses in boyfriend's arms after toddler killed in Russian shell attack":

Difficult to watch footage shows an unconscious 18-month-old boy being rushed to hospital after his home was shelled in the southern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.

Benjamin J. Cohen, Currency Statecraft

At Amazon, Benjamin J. Cohen, Currency Statecraft: Monetary Rivalry and Geopolitical Ambition.

Russia and China's Plans to Evade U.S. Economic Power

From Zongyuan Zoe Liu and Mihaela Papa, at Foreign Affairs, "The Anti-Dollar Axis":

Russian forces are now seizing territory across Ukraine, shelling military and civilian targets, and creeping closer to capturing the capital, Kyiv. The international response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion has been furious, and U.S. allies are united against the invasion. U.S. President Joe Biden has led the international community in slapping punitive sanctions on Russian elites and firms with the intention of crippling the Russian economy and forcing a change of course. But so far, these measures have failed to compel Russia to accept a cease-fire or to withdraw.

The war is barely ten days old, and it remains to be seen what Putin will do if and when sanctions stoke greater public discontent in Russia. But these punitive sanctions may also backfire in another way. Biden’s flexing of American economic muscle will only embolden Russia and other U.S. rivals, notably China, to deprive the United States of the very power that makes sanctions so devastating. Russia and China will expedite initiatives to “de-dollarize” their economies, building alternative financial institutions and structures that both protect themselves from sanctions and threaten the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s dominant currency. Without concerted action, the United States will struggle to reverse this movement and see the weakening of its global standing.

The U.S. dollar’s preeminence in the global financial system, backed by vibrant U.S. markets and unmatched U.S. military strength, makes any sanctions imposed by Washington formidable. No other currencies, the euro and the yuan included, have come close to dethroning the dollar from its primary position in the global economy and in international financial markets. The dollar is the most widely held reserve currency in the world. It is the main invoicing currency in international trade and the leading currency across global financial institutions. It dominates global equity markets, commodities markets, development finance, bank deposits, and global corporate borrowing. In times of crisis, people around the world turn to the dollar as their first choice of a safe-haven currency. U.S. sanctions effectively amputate the financial power of a foreign aggressor, preventing it from raising capital in global markets to bankroll its activities.

Russia might be the most outspoken champion of throwing off the yoke of the dollar, but its agenda has great appeal among major powers. China’s commitment to diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, encouraging more transactions in yuan, and reforming the global currency system through changes in the International Monetary Fund further buttresses Russia’s strategy. Deteriorating U.S.-Chinese relations incentivize Beijing to join with Moscow in building a credible global financial system that excludes the United States. Such a system will attract countries under U.S. sanctions. It would even appeal to major U.S. allies who hope to promote their own currencies to the detriment of the dollar. When imposing sanctions, the Biden administration must not just consider how these measures will shape the war in Ukraine but also how they might transform the global financial system.

THE DOLLAR YOKE

For at least a decade, Russian policymakers have been wary of the preeminence of the dollar. In 2012, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov expressed Russia’s concern about the dollar’s dominance in international trade. After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Obama administration expanded sanctions on Russia that targeted several large Russian banks, as well as energy companies, defense corporations, and wealthy supporters of Putin. The Russian government subsequently launched two critical pieces of financial infrastructure to fend off sanctions and preserve its financial autonomy if cut off from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication system, also known as SWIFT, which allows banks to send messages to one another. One was an independent national payment system that worked as a Russian alternative to payment platforms such as Visa and Mastercard. The other was a proprietary financial messaging system called the System for Transfer of Financial Messages, or SPFS, the Russian version of SWIFT.

SPFS became fully operational in 2017, transmitting transaction messages in any currency. In December 2021, it had 38 foreign participants from nine countries. As of this March, SPFS has over 399 users, including more than 20 Belarusian banks, the Armenian Arshidbank, and the Kyrgyz Bank of Asia. Subsidiaries of large Russian banks in Germany and Switzerland, the two most important financial power hubs in Europe, have access to SPFS. Russia is currently negotiating with China to join the system. This alternative financial infrastructure enables Russian corporations and individuals to retain some access, albeit limited, to global markets despite sanctions.

Since 2018, the Bank of Russia has also substantially reduced the share of dollars in Russia’s foreign exchange reserves with purchases of gold, euros, and yuan. It also withdrew much of its reserves from U.S. Treasury bonds; between March and May 2018, the Bank of Russia reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities from $96.1 billion to $14.9 billion. In early 2019, the bank cut its U.S. dollar holdings by $101 billion, over half of its existing assets. In 2021, after the Biden administration imposed new sanctions on Moscow, Russia announced its decision to completely remove dollar assets from its $186 billion National Wealth Fund, a major sovereign wealth fund.

Since the beginning of his fourth presidential term in 2018, Putin pledged to defend Russia’s economic sovereignty against U.S. sanctions and prioritized policies that steered the country’s economy away from the dollar. He advocated for getting “free” of the dollar “burden” in the global oil trade and the Russian economy because the monopoly of the U.S. dollar was “unreliable” and “dangerous.” In October 2018, the Putin administration supported a plan designed to limit Russia’s exposure to future U.S. sanctions by using alternative currencies in international transactions...

Keep reading. 

 

Herbert Marcuse and the Left's Endless Campaign Against Western 'Repression'

This is from Benedict Beckeld, at Quillette (via Maggie's Farm):

The Frankfurt School of social theory began about a century ago, in the Weimar Republic. It consisted in the main of a group of rather anti-capitalist, Marxist-light gentlemen who embraced oikophobia (the hatred or dislike of one’s own cultural home), and who were understandably disillusioned by the carnage of World War I. Our interest today is mainly historical; of its earlier members, such as Ernst Bloch, Walter Benjamin, Max Horkheimer, Herbert Marcuse, and Theodor Adorno, really only Adorno is still read with a measure of seriousness outside of academia.

The Frankfurt School popularized historicism—the belief that reflection itself is a part of history, which is to say that earlier thoughts are historically conditioned by the circumstances in which the thinkers lived, and should be seen in that light; and that what passes for “knowledge” is marred by the historical time and place in which that knowledge appeared. (This idea was present already in the second part of The Communist Manifesto.) The insights that a more positivist outlook claims to be certain, based on sensory data, historicism will consider uncertain and necessarily bound by subjective value judgments. A part of this view is the concern—and the French postmodernists will pick up this point—to identify, isolate, and thereby exorcise every sort of domination that any group might have held over any other group.

They wanted to find the particular reasons why someone in the past had thought in a particular way, reasons that were to be found mainly in external factors. Essentially, the Frankfurt School endeavored to establish a “value-free” social science, that is, the erasure of any sort of prejudice among philosophers and sociologists. Since Western civilization was monomaniacally seen as the history of dominations by various groups over one another—which meant that individual actors had to be viewed as purely nefarious oppressors—it followed quite naturally that much of the West was ready for the garbage heap. Not only were the workers and the poor oppressed by the rich, but the rich in turn were, along with everyone else, oppressed psychologically by Christian sexual mores and by the overall familial hierarchy of Western civilization. This is why, to many of the school’s members, not only smaller fixes had to be implemented here and there, but the whole edifice had to be brought down (which was itself ultimately a morally positivistic effort). With the rise of Nazism in Germany, many Frankfurt scholars moved to New York, and thereby gained a broader audience of impressionable college students....

Keep reading.

And see Linda Kimball's now classic article, "Cultural Marxism."  

WATCH: Sunday With Lindsay Pelas

Look at that dress, wow.

My Sunday with @NewBeauty ✨💞 pic.twitter.com/8nxvyhWjf2

— Lindsey Pelas (@LindseyPelas) March 6, 2022

How the West Unplugged Russia From the World's Financial Systems

At WSJ, "Western financiers severed practically every artery of money between the country and the rest of the globe, in some cases going beyond sanctions":

Two weeks ago, Russia’s companies could sell their goods around the globe and take in investments from overseas stock-index funds. Its citizens could buy MacBooks and Toyotas at home, and freely spend their rubles abroad.

Now they are in a financial bind. Soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, another war began to isolate its economy and pressure President Vladimir Putin. The first move was made by Western governments to sanction the country’s banking system. But over the course of the past week, the financial system took over and severed practically every artery of money between Russia and the rest of the world, in some cases going further than what was required by the sanctions.

Visa Inc. V -3.91% and Mastercard Inc. stopped processing foreign purchases for millions of Russian citizens. Apple Inc. and Google shut off their smartphone-enabled payments, stranding cashless travelers at Moscow metro stations. International firms stepped back from providing the credit and insurance that underpin trade shipments.

This unplugging of the world’s 11th-largest economy opens a new chapter in the history of economic conflict. In a world that relies on the financial system’s plumbing—clearing banks, settlement systems, messaging protocols and cross-border letters of credit—a few concerted moves can flatten a major economy.

Russia now faces a repeat of one of the most painful episodes in its post-Soviet history—the financial crisis of 1998, when its economy collapsed overnight. In the decades that followed, Russia earned its way back into the good graces of financiers in New York, London and Tokyo. It is all being undone at warp speed and will not be easily put back together.

The ruble has lost more than one-quarter of its value and is now virtually useless outside of Russia, with Western firms refusing to exchange it or process overseas transactions. Moscow’s stock exchange was closed for a fifth straight day on Friday. The Russian Central Bank more than doubled interest rates to attract foreign investment and halt the ruble’s free fall. Two firms that are crucial to clearing securities trades, Euroclear and DTCC, said they would stop processing certain Russian transactions.

With their interest payments stuck inside the country—following the sanctions, Mr. Putin also ordered intermediaries in Russia not to pay—some Russian companies and government entities could default on their bond payments to international creditors. That could make the country toxic for investing for years. Shares of Russian companies, even those without obvious ties to the Kremlin, were booted from stock-index funds, which will further isolate them from pools of Western capital.

Analysts expect Russia’s economy to contract as much as 20% this quarter, roughly the same hit the British economy took in the spring of 2020 during the pandemic lockdowns.

Aleksandr Iurev left Moscow eight years ago as an aspiring entrepreneur. Russia’s escalating hostility in the region made it “no place for business people,” he said from his home in New Jersey. The 36-year-old runs a mobile-app startup and this week, he can’t make payroll for the six developers who work for him in Russia because they hold personal accounts at sanctioned banks.

“It is completely shut off,” he said. He’s looking into cryptocurrency to keep his staff from bolting.

His company, Pocketfied, has other problems: Members of his marketing team in Ukraine took the week off to help build street barricades in Dnipro, in the country’s east.

The one lifeline that still connects Russia’s economy to Western markets is its supplies of energy, which European countries rely on and have been loath to cut off, especially during the winter. U.S. lawmakers are pressuring the White House to expand sanctions to include energy payments, which would sap Russia of its largest source of income, at $240 billion last year.

Even if governments don’t act, the market is speaking: Russian oil producers have had trouble finding buyers for shipments since the invasion began.

“The golden age that we had from 1945 to last week is now over,” said Gary Greenberg, head of global emerging markets at Federated Hermes, which manages $669 billion in assets. “As investors, we need to look at things differently now.”

As it dug out from the 1998 crash, Russia plugged itself into the global economy. It joined Brazil, China and India—dubbed the BRIC economies by Western investors—as the next frontier of finance.

American, British and Swiss banks courted the flood of money its oil industry produced. Russia’s biggest banks listed shares in London. One of them moved into an office across the street from the Bank of England. The Moscow exchange itself went public in 2013 with backing from U.S. and European investors.

The first signs of decoupling came in 2014, when Mr. Putin’s territorial ambitions began to stir. Western governments put limited sanctions on Russia after it annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

Russia began trying to sanction-proof its economy. It built its own domestic payments network—called Mir, Russian for “peace”—to function alongside and, if needed, replace those run by Western firms. It shifted its overseas holdings away from the U.S. and its European allies and toward China, which has been relatively more accommodating of Mr. Putin’s efforts to expand his influence and territory. It doubled its gold reserves.

Those efforts to wall itself off may prove insufficient. At least 40% of Russia’s $630 billion in foreign reserves are in countries that have joined in the latest sanctions. The rest, mostly in China, it is free to spend—but only in China. Moving those reserves out of the country would require first converting them into a Western currency like dollars or euros, which no global bank will do.

Russia, like many energy-rich countries, exports oil and gas and imports much else—automotive parts, medicines, broadcast equipment, wallpaper, fresh vegetables.

The financial journey that enables their geographical one depends on a complex web of loans, insurance policies and payments. Western banks are stepping back from trade financing, executives said, wary of the risk that their counterparty uses a sanctioned Russian bank, or has ties to a sanctioned oligarch. Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, suspended deliveries to Russia, citing tougher terms now being demanded by financiers.

Czarnikow Group, a London-based trade-financing firm, was preparing this week to send a shipload of a specialty plastic used in soda bottles and clamshell packaging, with scheduled stops in Russia and Ukraine. On Monday, the firm got notice from its insurance provider that its policy would no longer cover the ship.

“It was obvious we weren’t going to be able to put a vessel in,” said Robin Cave, Czarnikow’s chief executive, who began looking for alternative ports and is talking to his client about where to send the cargo...

California Gas Prices Hit More Than $5.00 Per Gallon on Average for First Time, Breaking Record Highs for the State (VIDEO)

I'm glad I'm not commuting to work everyday. I teach online. You wouldn't believe the continuing strong demand for online classes. Kids don't want to come back on campus, and not just because they might get sick. No, they like "going to school" in their pajamas. They don't have to pay for gas, parking, and maintenance on their vehicle. 

My college administration was stunned when on-campus classes were under-enrolled for the spring semester, which was supposed to be the first time everyone was fully "on-campus" since March 2020. 

Didn't work out that way. Even employees aren't looking to go back if their gasoline budget balloons to $600 a month and counting.

Following up from yesterday, "Gas Prices in Los Angeles," at KABC News 7 Los Angeles:

Biden Wokeness on Energy Is Weakness

From Ned Ryun, at American Greatness, "Wokeness on Energy: Is Weakness Biden’s energy policy is bankrupting the country and making us a paper tiger abroad?"

The U.S. Constitution Is Trash (VIDEO)

This is one bitter motherfucker.

Watch, Elie Mystal, a writer for the Nation, at "The View."

If you want to know how leftists will finally destroy the United States --- which is exactly what they want --- this is it:

Sean McMeekin, Stalin's War

Sean McMeekin, Stalin's War: A New History of World War II. 

Doctor, My Eyes ... Tell Me What is Wrong...

Jackson Browne

Cause I have wandered through this world
And as each moment has unfurled
I've been waiting to awaken from these dreams
People go just where they will
I never noticed them until I got this feeling
That it's later than it seems

Doctor, my eyes
Tell me what you see
I hear their cries
Just say if it's too late for me...