Can Sanctions Hurt Putin Enough to Make Him Give up Crimea?

From Professor Daniel Drezner, a week or so back, at Foreign Policy, "Bringing the Pain":

The first thing to understand about sanctioning Russia over its incursion into Crimea has nothing to do with the impact of the sanctions and everything to do with what is being demanded of Moscow. The United States wants Russia to withdraw military forces from a piece of territory they have long coveted. However much Russia has contravened international law over the past week, they've changed the facts on the ground. They control Crimea, and public opinion in that autonomous republic is pretty Russo-friendly. The current status quo for Russia is that they control that territory. In world politics, there is no greater demand to ask of a government than to make de facto or de jure territorial concessions. The domestic and international ramifications of such a concession are massive -- especially after force was used to occupy the territory. So recognize that the demand being attached to the sanctions is so large that success is extremely unlikely.

The only case of economic coercion succeeding in a similar case in history was the 1956 Suez crisis. In that case, Britain, France, and Israel withdrew their forces from the Suez Canal following a U.S.-inspired run on the pound sterling. Except that the Suez case is not at all similar to Russia/Crimea. Britain was a treaty ally of the United States; not so much with Vladimir Putin's Russia. The Suez was far away from British soil; Crimea is just across the Sea of Azov. And, perhaps most importantly, Britain was in a fragile economic state trying to protect a fixed exchange rate. Russia's economy has its problems, but a shortage of hard currency reserves ain't one of them.

So the conditions under which sanctions would force Russia's hand in Ukraine are far from ideal. The proposed sanctions coalition is equally flawed, however, as my FP colleague Colum Lynch has noted. European Union leaders are not exactly keen on the idea of broad-based economic sanctions, for understandable reasons. Britain needs Russian finance capital; the rest of Europe needs Russian energy. France is traditionally the most hawkish country in Europe, but that country is too busy planning to export warships to Russia to organize European sanctions. As a result, there's been nary a peep out of Paris. If Russia continues to jerry-rig a Crimean referendum to pry it free from Ukraine, then the EU, led by its eastern members, might come around to sanctions. But that will take time -- both to organize and to take its toll on Russia -- and the more time that passes, the more that Russia can do to try and "normalize" the status quo.

The United States, on its own, has limited levers on economic influence over Russia. Financial sanctions and asset freezes sound good, part of the newfound policymaker faith in "smart sanctions" as a way squeezing a country's elite without hurting the population. It's likely that targeted financial sanctions could, if well designed, impose some costs on Russia's oligarchs and officials. But this assumes that Putin needs the support of Russia's plutocrats rather than vice versa. The past 15 years of Russian history have demonstrated that the current Russian president has little compunction with exercising state power at the expense of Russia's 1 percent. As for opening up U.S. energy exports as a way of diluting European dependence on Russian natural gas, it's not a bad idea -- it's not going to generate much pain in the short term.

Sorry, but the fact remains that sanctions will not force Russia out of Crimea...

More at the link.

But I think that passage puts things in perspective, considering how the U.S. and Europe have now agreed on something nearing heightened economic sanctions on Moscow. See the Washington Post, "U.S., E.U. announce sanctions following vote in Crimea." And at the Christian Science Monitor, "US and allies slap more sanctions on Russia. Will they work?"

Happy Homosexual St. Patrick's Day!

LOL!

I thought I was posting on this topic, but Ms. EBL linked this hilarious pic at the Other McCain's:



I have no clue if that's from today or previously, but it certainly captures the left's hijacking of this traditional Irish holiday.

More at WSJ, "Photos: St. Patrick’s Day Marches On in New York City."

And from Judson Phillips, at Communities Digital News, "St. Patrick’s Day: For liberals the ‘parade’ only goes one way":

St. Patrick’s Day is primarily an Irish Catholic holiday. March 17th is the feast day of St. Patrick, the patron saint of Ireland. Homosexuality is still a sin according to the Catholic Church.

So why do homosexuals have to demand their own float and their own banner in what is essentially a Catholic celebration?

The answer is simple. It is liberal intolerance and liberal ideology. Liberals will not tolerate competing ideas. Everything must be subjugated to the greater good. In this case, the left’s greater good is the advancement of the homosexual agenda. It does not matter that the parade is put on by Irish Catholics who disagree with homosexuality. It does not matter the floats and banners might or probably would offend many of the participants in the parade.

Every year, New York City, Boston and other cities where this issue is being fought have their homosexual rights parades. Why don’t these groups simply keep their banners and their floats for those parades?

Better yet, when do you think you will see a float in one of those parades from a group promoting traditional sexual behavior? Or the traditional family? Do you think you will ever see a float or a banner in one of those parades for, say parenting by two opposite sex parents?

Do you think their will ever be a float featuring people like Chirlane McCray, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio wife, who was once a lesbian and is now a heterosexual woman?

No, absolutely not. Because for the left, tolerance is always a one-way parade. Everyone else is told that they must tolerate the far left, no matter how crazy or offensive they are. But Saints preserve, don’t be asking them to tolerate a dissenting opinion.

PREVIOUSLY: "Homosexuals Ruin St. Patrick's Day."

Homosexuals Ruin St. Patrick's Day

I had to fix Robert Stacy McCain's headline with my own above.

See, "Gays Ruin St. Patrick’s Day":

Evidently, it is not enough to have a Gay Pride parade every June. Now every parade must be a Gay Pride parade.

"Gay" is a misnomer, as folks well know. They're homosexuals, and they don't like you calling them homosexuals, because it more accurately describes their deviant sexual behavior. That said, they're definitely ruining this day. (Also at TCOTs, "A Special ‘Thank You’ to All the Homosexuals Out There.")

RELATED: From Andrew "RAWMUSCLEGLUTES" Sullivan, "The Hounding of a Young Gay Writer":

Could it be because they ["these harrumphing lefties"] don’t actually want to continue the dialogue with people of faith, but rather seek to leverage the growing majority in favor of gay equality to rhetorically bludgeon the “bigots” into submission, to create a world in which they call the shots the way homophobes used to? Could it be that they enjoy policing the discourse now that they seem in the majority? This latest surge of gay intolerance needs to be beaten back as forcefully as the anti-gay right’s cornered animus. It’s particularly brutal when that intolerance is directed at a young gay writer whose work and life are being trashed as somehow illegitimate. If anything is anti-gay in this kerfuffle, that is.

Hmm, could it be?

Yes, that is the question for the freak leftist thugs. And Democrats. The assholes.

Search for Malaysia Flight 370 Enters Daunting New Phase

At the Wall Street Journal, "Search for Flight 370 Enters Daunting New Phase: Search Moves to Two Huge New Areas Spanning Bay of Bengal":

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia—The search for Malaysia Airlines 3786.KU -4.17%  Flight 370 expanded by thousands of miles in an operation of unprecedented scale, marked by a series of twists that have made the least likely scenarios the most credible.

The number of countries searching for the flight, which fell off radar March 8 en route to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur, doubled to roughly two dozen over the weekend. Searchers are now looking for debris more than 3,200 miles away from the point at which they believe the plane's transponders and another signaling system were deliberately turned off about an hour into the flight.

Malaysian authorities now say they believe foul play was behind the plane's vanishing, and police are investigating all crew and passengers on the flight as well as engineers who may have had contact with the aircraft before takeoff. Police searched the pilots' homes over the weekend, but Malaysia's transport ministry said there was no evidence so far linking the pilots to the plane's disappearance.

However, on Sunday, Malaysia's transport minister said key communication equipment that keeps the ground updated about the health of a flying aircraft and its engines was disabled on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 before the last recorded conversation with the cockpit.

"Yes, it was before," Hishammuddin Hussein said at a news conference Sunday in response to a reporter's question about whether the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System, or ACARS, of Flight 370 was disabled before someone said, "All right, good night" from the cockpit.

The ACARS system being disabled before the last voice message from the cockpit backs up thinking by experts that somebody with intricate understanding of the Boeing 777-200 jet and its systems tampered with communication equipment on board. The system apparently could only have been disabled by someone in the cockpit, according to an executive of Rockwell Collins, which bought ARINC, the firm that invented the ACARS system. The executive spoke to The Wall Street Journal on condition of anonymity.

On Thursday, Mr. Hishammuddin said the last automated message was sent out by the ACARS system at 1:07 a.m. Malaysia time. But he didn't say then whether the system was disabled before or after the last comment from the cockpit.

The identity of the person making the last statement— " All right, good night"—hasn't been confirmed. Pilots are expected to read back important information, such as frequency change instructions, given to them by air-traffic controllers to ensure they've received the correct message, though these rules aren't always strictly followed.

The transponder signal from Flight 370 was lost at 1:21 a.m. All radar contact with the aircraft was lost a few minutes afterwards, according to Malaysian investigators. Transponders are another set of communication devices on aircraft that help identify individual flights to controllers on the ground.

Also at Telegraph UK, "Co-pilot spoke final words - 'All right, good night'."

Homosexuals Hijack St. Patrick's Day

Here's the Headline at the Guardian UK, "Guinness pulls out of New York's St Patrick's Day parade over gay rights."

And at the New York Times, "Guinness Withdraws Sponsorship of St. Patrick’s Day Parade":

Guinness USA has dropped its sponsorship of the St. Patrick’s Day parade in New York, joining protests of a ban on public expression of gay pride.

“Guinness has a strong history of supporting diversity and being an advocate for equality for all,” the brewer, based in Norwalk, Conn., said on Sunday in a statement.

“We were hopeful that the policy of exclusion would be reversed for this year’s parade. As this has not come to pass, Guinness has withdrawn its participation. We will continue to work with community leaders to ensure that future parades have an inclusionary policy.”

The parade is expected to proceed as planned along Fifth Avenue in Manhattan on Monday despite the withdrawals of major sponsors like Guinness, the Dublin brewer known for its stout, and of city leaders, including Mayor Bill de Blasio, over the issue of inclusiveness.

Organizers of the annual parade have said gay groups could march in the procession but could not carry signs or identify their sexuality. Organizers could not be immediately reached by telephone Sunday night.

Guinness’s decision was applauded by gay rights groups that had threatened to boycott its products. The Stonewall Inn, widely regarded as the birthplace of the gay rights movement, canceled plans to cease selling Guinness starting on Monday.

More at Memeorandum.

Basically, you're going to support LGBT "equality," and you're going to like it --- or else.

PHOTO: Wikimedia Commons.

Fears Over China's Currency

Interesting piece on the move toward a larger official trading band for the Chinese yuan, at the New York Times, "In China, Shaking Up Currency’s Strength."

Beijing heavily controls the value of the yuan (when it appreciates against the dollar, Chinese goods become more expensive, potentially hurting the country's export-led economy). But what fascinated me about this piece was the effects on global traders from the default of a major bond investor to the tune of $163 million:

Over the years, China’s investors and trade partners have come to rely on what amounts to a “Beijing put,” an option that provides assurance that a minimum level of growth will be attained. When the country looked set to fall short, the government would intervene to prime the pumps — freeing up credit, introducing subsidies and otherwise ensuring that China avoided any real economic pain and remained on track as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Yet in the face of apparently slowing growth, this implicit guarantee is showing signs of fraying. Markets around the world are growing worried, from Australian iron ore miners to the luxury fashion houses of Europe to American scrap exporters.

Take copper, where global prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks. This is partly the result of concerns that growth is slowing in China, which accounts for more than 40 percent of global consumption of the metal. But the falling prices represent another, bigger fear — one that focuses on the role copper plays in China’s huge shadow finance sector and the realization that Beijing will not always be there with a bailout.

Many Chinese companies and investors buy copper they have no intention of using. Instead, companies that otherwise have difficulty securing traditional loans will purchase copper from overseas suppliers by using letters of credit issued by banks, which only require a deposit of around 15 percent of the value of the goods being purchased, according to analysts.

The Chinese importer then parks the shipment of copper in a duty-free warehouse and uses it as collateral to secure a bank loan at favorable rates, the proceeds from which are used to make higher-yielding investments. When the letter of credit comes due, usually in three to six months, the importer cashes out of the financial investment or sells the copper.

This month, a small producer of solar panels based in Shanghai failed to pay the interest on a bond worth 1 billion renminbi, or $163 million. It was the first default in China’s onshore corporate bond market in recent history, and it sent shock waves through global copper markets.

Investors are worried that Chinese buyers who imported copper purely for financing purposes could be forced to sell, and prices of the metal have plummeted on fears that hundreds of thousands of tons of copper could begin to flood global markets as a result. As of Friday, benchmark three-month copper contracts closed at $6,469 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, down more than 8 percent from March 6, the day before the panel maker, the Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology Company, defaulted. Chaori’s default “was probably the trigger” for the slide in global copper prices, said Helen Lau, a senior metals and mining analyst at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong.

“Before, people still had wishful thinking that the government would bail out whatever, but now?” Ms. Lau said. “One default can lead to another. People are really scared.”

Geography Demands Putin Take #Ukraine

From Julia Ioffie, at the New Republic, "After Crimea, Putin Is Going to Take Eastern Ukraine."

She's good. Amazing how all of this is unfolding, not unlike the 1930s.

Anonymous Twitter Account Dishes Dark Secrets About New Media

At the Daily Dot.

This guy's a riot.

Just was offered a book deal for $675,000. Guess 10k followers is the golden number.

— Media Man (@ExMediaMan) March 17, 2014

Blondie’s 40th Anniversary

The band has a new album coming and they appeared at SXSW over the weekend. At the New York Times, "SXSW Q. and A. | Blondie on Blondie."

And at the Smithsonian, "BLONDIE'S NEW YORK."

Vladimir Putin and the Lessons of 1938

From Garry Kasparov, at Politico, "He’s not Hitler. But we’ve got to stop him all the same":

It’s been a busy few weeks for Vladimir Putin. In the last month, the Russian president has hosted the Olympic Games, invaded a neighboring country and massed troops along its border. Back in Moscow, the Kremlin has cranked up the volume of hysterical anti-Western propaganda to a roar while cracking down on the last vestiges of the free media. All the while, he proclaims he wants peace and accuses Western leaders of hypocrisy and anti-Russian sentiment. If Putin wanted to do a better imitation of Adolf Hitler circa 1936-1938, he would have to grow a little mustache. Equally troubling is that the leaders of Europe and the United States have been doing a similarly good impersonation of the weak-kneed and risk-averse leaders who enabled Hitler’s rise in the 1930s.

I know full well that any mention of the maniacal Nazi leader is viewed as being in poor taste by many. The good news is that it took many years for the West to finally admit that Putin is a dictator and only a few weeks for respected public figures such as Hillary Clinton to acknowledge how closely he is following in Hitler’s footsteps right now. Nobody except the most naked of Kremlin apologists is debating whether Putin’s anything but a tyrant anymore. Instead, we’re searching for the right historical analogy: Is it Budapest 1956? Prague 1968? Austria 1938?

To which I say: Welcome to the club! It remains to be seen, however, if the media figures and politicians who have so quickly adopted my Anschluss rhetoric are willing and able to do what is necessary to stop repeating the past. In recent days, the United States and several European governments have bolstered their statements, which will, I hope, now be followed up with strong sanctions and other steps to ostracize and deter Putin.

Over the past nine years I have dedicated most of my life to opposing Vladimir Putin’s campaign to destroy democracy and civil liberties in Russia. My efforts have included everything from marching in the streets of Moscow to traveling to nearly every Russian province to sounding the alarm about the true nature of Putin’s regime as widely and loudly as possible. Eight years ago, my main arguments to international audiences were about the myths of Putin’s Russia. I explained over and over that no, Putin wasn’t really a democratically elected leader; our elections were a stage-managed charade. That yes, he really was a bad guy who was supporting rogue states abroad while in Russia he was persecuting dissidents, locking down the media under state control and subordinating the Russian economy to the Kremlin and his small circle of cronies. And if Putin is really so popular in Russia, I asked, why is he so afraid of fair elections and a free media? For this, many in the West dismissed me as a fringe troublemaker who might potentially usurp their narrative of how engagement with Putin’s Russia was going to bring about reform and liberalization.

Although I accurately saw Putin’s main advantage over his Soviet predecessors—open access to international markets and institutions—I never imagined he would abuse and exploit them so easily, or that Western leaders would be so cooperative in allowing him to do so. Putin’s oligarchs bank in London, party in the Alps and buy penthouses in New York and Miami, all while looting Russia under the auspices of a reborn KGB police state. It’s “rule like Stalin, live like Trump.” The West has fulfilled every cynical expectation Putin had about how easy it would be to buy his way around any nasty confrontation over human rights. Even now, with Russian troops occupying Crimea in preparation for annexation, European countries are terrified of losing any Russian oligarch money. They are afraid of using the very thing that gives them so much potential leverage over Putin—exactly as he hoped.

Of course Putin isn’t Hitler, although his potential for devastation is even greater due to a massive nuclear arsenal under the control of what appears to be a shrinking and desperate inner circle. I would never minimize the horror of the Holocaust, the millions of war dead or the heroism of those who defeated the Nazis. My goal is to scrutinize how the rest of the world did and did not respond while Hitler the popular German statesman was becoming Hitler the monster in the 1930s...

Look, the 1938 analogy works fine for me. Indeed, I invoked the Anschluss a couple of weeks back, "U.S. Has Few Options in #Ukraine."

Keep reading Kasparov, in any case, at the link. He's good.

Smokin' Alessandra Ambrosio at 'Ale' Launch Party in Beverly Hills

She's fabulous.

At WWTDD, "Alessandra Ambrosio Can Make You Look Pretty Too."

Ukrainians Direct Anger at Western Powers After Crimea Votes to Join Russia

Look, in 2008 Barack Obama promised that he'd heal the planet (blah blah), but all that's not helping the people of Ukraine today, obviously. And the rest of Europe? Pfft. The Europeans won't risk Russian gas exports, so screw Ukraine, "a faraway country" and a "people of whom we know nothing."

At the Washington Post, "As Ukrainians brace to lose Crimea, many are also disappointed with the West":

KIEV, UKRAINE — While the residents of Crimea were voting Sunday under the barrel of Russian guns, Oleg Vorontsov was heeding a national call to arms. Outraged by what he called a “rigged referendum” that will probably result in the peninsula being absorbed by Moscow, the 40-year-old approached a recruiting stand in central Kiev for Ukraine’s newly created national guard.

And yet, as with so many others who gathered here at the epicenter of this nation’s pro-Western revolution Sunday, his anger was not solely directed at Moscow. He had plenty left for the Western powers that he said had courted Ukraine only to dither and demure when the going got tough.

“Sanctions against a few people? How is that going to help us against Russia?” laughed Vorontsov, owner of a small Internet cafe, who signed up to join a new force of 60,000 reservists that Kiev hopes will bolster Ukrainian defenses in the event of a full-blown war with Russia. “The Russians are taking a piece of our country, and where is the West? Europe and the United States have abandoned us.”

At its core, the popular uprising that ousted the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych last month was a battle over national direction — whether Ukraine should hitch its wagon to Moscow or the West. And yet, while many here continue to push for a new future in the West, they are also grappling with a deep sense of disappointment, even betrayal, over the response to their plight.

Even here, few see a military option. Barring a significant new Russian incursion into eastern or southern Ukraine, a major fight is considered unlikely. On Sunday, many Ukrainians watched the orchestrated referendum unfold in Crimea with a sense of helplessness, knowing full well that Moscow’s military hopelessly outclasses their own.

Yet many here also seem to think that U.S. and European leaders could do far more than they have. Western powers are set to adopt economic sanctions as soon as Monday, targeting dozens of Russians with asset freezes and travel bans. But on Sunday, many in Kiev’s Independence Square seemed convinced that such measures would be too little, too late.

Many here are citing the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which the United States, Britain and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty after the breakup of the Soviet Union, and in which Kiev agreed to surrender its nuclear stockpile.

Russia has broken its part of the bargain, Kiev says, and the interim government here has sought to invoke the memorandum in appeals for Western aid. In the West, however, officials have made clear that the document is not a binding treaty of mutual defense but more of a general commitment for unspecified support.

“We do not want to go to war, but if the Russians knew that the West would stand behind us, they would not have taken Crimea,” said Oleksandr Kress, a 29-year-old engineer who was also in line to sign up for the national guard. The government is taking men as young as 15 and as old as 45. The first training sessions for the new force began last week.

“But we know now that they don’t stand behind us,” Kress said. “We know now that we must help ourselves.”

More.

Crimeans Vote to Join Russia

I've got errands to run and some cleanup to do around the apartment today, so I'll be having more on this later. It's a big story.

At USA Today, "Exit polls show Crimeans vote to join Russia."

And at Telegraph UK, "Ukraine crisis: landslide victory for Russia in Crimea vote":

Rising tensions in Ukraine as Russia claims victory in Crimea referendum.

Exit polls in #Crimea indicate 93% voted for joining Russia. Who would have doubted it. http://t.co/RoVj7nhI1q

— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) March 16, 2014

Here is a bit more from Roland Oliphant on the result this evening after polls close in Crimea:

"Crimea voted overwhelmingly for unification with Russia on Thursday according to exit polls, in a vote that critics have condemned as illegitimate, illegal, and neither free nor fair.

Exit polls announced on Russian Television claimed 93 percent of voters who turned out for Sunday’s referendum voted for unification with Russia.

The poll suggested seven percent of voters opted for a second option of sweeping autonomy within Ukraine, carried out by a Simferopol based organisation called the Republican Institute for Political and Social Research.

The high vote chimes with straw-polls conducted by journalists at polling stations, and likely reflects a boycott by anti-secessionist voters. Refat Chubarov, the head of the Mejlis, a representative body of the Crimean Tatars, called on people of all nationalities to stay away from what he has called an illegal and illegitimate vote.

Of dozens of voters of three Crimean towns visited by Telegraph journalists on Sunday, not one admitted to voting against the poll.

Western governments have universally condemned the referendum, saying it violates Ukrainian and international law, and is neither free nor fair.

Ukrainian law requires a nation-wide referendum on any change to the country’s borders.

Queues were already building at polling stations before polls opened at 8 AM on Sunday morning.

Sergei Aksyonov, the pro-Russian prime minister who became a member of the Russians, voted early on Sunday morning.

Preparations for unification celebrations were already underway in central Simferopol hours before polls closed at 8 PM on Sunday night.

More at WaPo, "Crimeans vote amid allegations of intimidation."

U.S. Warns Russia on Crimea

It doesn't mean anything, of course.

At Politico, "Russia, U.S. agree to seek resolution":

In a piece of breaking news on CBS's "Face the Nation" host Bob Schieffer announced the readout of the phone call between Kerry and Lavrov from the Russian foreign ministry.

“U.S. officials are urging caution here that this does not mean there’s an immediate deal," Brennan said. But she noted that while Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn't appear to be "pulling back fully," there might be some discussion of a possibility "short of annexation" in Crimea.

The release, according to Schieffer, also mentioned "constitutional reform in Crimea," likely an allusion to a recent proposal from the Ukrainian government to give  more autonomy to Crimea — on issues like tax reform and treatment of minorities.

Also at NYT, "Kerry Presses Russia on ‘Provocations’ in Ukraine."

Ted Cruz Fightclub

At Twitchy, "‘Best response ever’! Ted Cruz weighs in on mysterious posters, embraces his badass self."

Saw this, but noticed an error. So I wanted to make one thing clear: I don't smoke cigarettes http://t.co/3nn2740kkP pic.twitter.com/tPFNqg9vu8
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) March 15, 2014

Also at TPNN, "Why are These Badass Posters of Ted Cruz Popping up Around LA?"

And at Truth Revolt, "Tattooed Ted Cruz Posters Pop Up in L.A.: 'Ted Cruz's So-Cal Blacklisted & Loving It Tour'."

Former Obama Press Secretary Robert Gibbs: If Dems Lose the Senate, 'Turn Out the Lights Because the Party's Over...'

Oh boy, it's the left's glum sweepstakes these days.

Former Obama White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs piles on, at Free Beacon, "Gibbs: Dems ‘Absolutely’ in Danger of Losing Senate‘If we lose the Senate, turn out the lights. The party is over’."



PREVIOUSLY: "Reince Priebus: 'ObamaCare Is Complete Poison Out There in the Field...'"

Reince Priebus: 'ObamaCare Is Complete Poison Out There in the Field...'

The GOP Chairman's interview by Candy Crowley at CNN, "Inside the GOP charm offensive."

And the write-up at Politico, "RNC chair: Obamacare 'main target'" (via Memeorandum):

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus called Obamacare "complete poison" on Sunday and vowed the GOP would continue to target the new health law in upcoming races.

Appearing on CNN's "State of the Union," he called the Affordable Care Act the "main target" for Republicans. And he said that David Jolly's victory over Democrat Alex Sink in last week's special congressional race in Florida's 13th District was largely due to opposition to Obamacare.

Yes, and I'm amazed that idiot leftists think they can "flip the script" on the ObamaCare talking points. Hilarious.

And previously, "'Poisonous' Obama Factor Has Vulnerable Dems Freakin' Out":

I can't wait for November! It's going to be a freakin' bloodbath!

Crimea Through a Game-Theory Lens

From Tyler Cowen, at the New York Times (via Memeorandum).

I think he nails this part about U.S. credibility, although it's not just Crimea. U.S. credibility has been frittered away throughout the Obama years. It's too bad, but our adversaries have no reason to fear U.S. power:

How much credibility will the United States lose if it doesn’t respond forcefully to Russian action? This, too, is a problem of game theory.

A commitment by a sovereign state is credible only when that state’s self-interest dictates honoring it. Previous American pledges to help or protect Ukraine were not all that credible to begin with, given the greater power and historical influence of Russia in the region. Failing to protect Crimea therefore doesn’t automatically lead to a big shift in the world’s perception of American willingness to honor commitments where the nation’s loyalties and interests are more certain. Daryl G. Press, a professor of government at Dartmouth, articulates a general version of that argument in his book “Calculating Credibility.”

Still, there may be a net loss of credibility, perhaps a serious one, when the world is uncertain where American self-interest lies. For instance, how dedicated is the United States to protecting various disputed small Asian islands from Chinese domination or conquest? How much does America care about the de facto independence of Taiwan these days, or about limiting China’s influence in the South China Sea? The answers may not be obvious, especially in a diverse democracy like ours.

But for strategists in China and elsewhere in Asia seeking clues to American behavior, it’s possible that the effectiveness of the United States response on Crimea will matter a great deal. For actual deterrence, the United States would mainly need to create negative consequences for Russia, not just engage in posturing.

In any case, it is unlikely that Russia will happily reverse course and hand back Crimea, and so we may well see some careful calculations on how negative those longer-term consequences will be. In this sense, economics — through the medium of game theory — is again earning its moniker as the dismal science.

Obama Worked to Destroy Massive Ukraine Arms Cache That Could Have Helped Against Russia Today

He's such an asshole.

Making the world a more dangerous place, one sorry disarming nation at a time.

At London's Daily Mail, "Flashback: Senator Obama pushed bill that helped destroy more than 15,000 TONS of ammunition, 400,000 small arms and 1,000 anti-aircraft missiles in Ukraine."

Obama is Dangerous #OmeriKa #2A Senator Obama pushed to destroy massive arms, ammo caches in Ukraine http://t.co/exmKOUziHu @MailOnline

— patrickhenry#TGDN (@PatrickHenry999) March 16, 2014

'Poisonous' Obama Factor Has Vulnerable Dems Freakin' Out

Heh, it sucks to be a Democrat.

At NYT, "Obama Factor Adds to Fears of Democrats":

WASHINGTON — Democrats are becoming increasingly alarmed about their midterm election fortunes amid President Obama’s sinking approval ratings, a loss in a special House election in Florida last week, and millions of dollars spent by Republican-aligned groups attacking the new health law.

The combination has led to uncharacteristic criticism of Mr. Obama and bitter complaints that his vaunted political organization has done little to help the party’s vulnerable congressional candidates.

The latest in a cascade of bad news came Friday when Scott Brown, a former senator from Massachusetts, announced an exploratory committee to challenge the incumbent Democrat in New Hampshire, Senator Jeanne Shaheen, and when the Republican-aligned “super PAC” American Crossroads said it would spend $600,000 to help his effort.

Earlier, another top-tier Republican recruit, Representative Cory Gardner, decided to challenge Senator Mark Udall of Colorado; the two races create unanticipated opportunities improving Republicans’ chances to take control of the Senate. No prominent Democrats predict their party will win back the House.

Interviews with more than two dozen Democratic members of Congress, state party officials and strategists revealed a new urgency about the need to address the party’s prospects. One Democratic lawmaker, who asked not to be identified, said Mr. Obama was becoming “poisonous” to the party’s candidates. At the same time, Democrats are pressing senior aides to Mr. Obama for help from the political network.

“I’m a prolific fund-raiser, but I can’t compete with somebody who has got 50-some-odd billion dollars,” said Representative Joe Garcia of Florida, a vulnerable first-term member who has already faced more than $500,000 in negative TV ads from third-party conservative groups. “One hopes the cavalry is coming. One hopes the cavalry is coming.”

The gap is yawning. Outside Republican groups have spent about $40 million in this election cycle, compared with just $17 million by Democrats.

When two senior White House officials — Jennifer Palmieri, the communications director, and Phil Schiliro, the health care adviser — went to the Capitol late last month to address Senate Democrats about the Affordable Care Act, they were met with angry questions about why Mr. Obama’s well-funded advocacy group, Organizing for Action, was not airing commercials offering them cover on the health law.

Among those raising concerns was Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, who also has a low-key style and warm relationship with Mr. Obama.

“They did not want to hear about health care enrollment,” one source familiar with the meeting said, describing “a high level of anxiety.”

After the loss in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, which Mr. Obama carried in 2012, Representative Steve Israel of New York, the chairman of the House Democratic campaign arm, asked the White House political director, David Simas, for additional help during a Wednesday meeting at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Responding to these concerns, several Democrats said Friday that Organizing for Action would cut back its fund-raising activities so the group would not be in competition with the candidates for donors. Katie Hogan, a spokeswoman for it, said, “We understand and expect that some of our more than 420,000 contributors will shift their focus to their local campaigns during the midterm season.”

I can't remember this kind of Democrat panic. And I especially can't remember this kind of Democrat panic this early in the electoral season. I guess all that leftist spin about low turnout in FL-13 ain't doing the trick.

I can't wait for November! It's going to be a freakin' bloodbath!

'That a grown man feels it’s the right decision to call the police on his pet instead of taking a few scratches for the family and protecting his brood by himself proves we’re all too reliant on government...'

A great piece from Megan Fox, at Pajamas Media, "The Death of Masculinity: Grumpy house cat 1, man 0":

It’s times like these I’m grateful for the real men still left. They may be a dying breed, but I’m grateful nonetheless. Here’s to you hunters, fishers, fixers, and wrestlers. Women may complain about your uncouth behavior or excess body hair, but it’s infinitely preferable to being stuck in a room with a “guy” who can’t fight off a cat.

The story went viral earlier this week, even getting major coverage at the Los Angeles Times, "Man calls 911 after 'very, very, very, very hostile' cat traps family."

Big Air Skateboarder Bob Burnquist Builds Floating Skate Ramp in Middle of Lake Tahoe

At Inhabit, "Pro Skater Bob Burnquist Busts Moves on an Awesome Floating Skate Ramp on Lake Tahoe."

And at Vista California, "Location 14: Pro Skater Bob Burnquist at Lake Tahoe."



Via Liz Williams on Facebook.

Scott Brown's 'candidacy would almost certainly force Democrats to wage another highly competitive race in a year when they are fighting to keep control of the Senate...'

The quote's from the great write-up, at the New York Times, "Scott Brown Moves One Step Closer to a Senate Bid":

Mr. Brown came to national attention with his upset win in 2010 for the Senate seat in Massachusetts long held by Edward M. Kennedy. He was a senator for only three years before he was knocked out by Ms. Warren in a slugfest that became the most expensive congressional race in the country.

But it was clear he loved the limelight. On the night he lost to Ms. Warren, he told supporters that “defeat was only temporary,” a signal that he would be running for office again someday. And last April, he hinted broadly that he was looking at the Senate race here.

Since then, he has taken all the evolutionary steps necessary for his announcement on Friday, including selling his home in Massachusetts and moving full time into the second home that he has owned in New Hampshire for two decades. (The Constitution requires only that senators live in the state at the time of the election.)

In an impassioned announcement speech that dwelled on his family’s longtime connections to New Hampshire, Mr. Brown also warned, “A big political wave is about to break in America, and the Obamacare Democrats are on the wrong side of that wave.”

If he were to win in November, Mr. Brown would join an exclusive club: senators who represented more than one state. There have been two, both in the 19th century. The record-holder is James Shields, who represented Illinois, Minnesota and Missouri. Waitman T. Willey went to the Senate from Virginia and later West Virginia.

Former Senator Bob Smith has already announced his bid to win back his old seat (he represented New Hampshire in the Senate from 1990 to 2002). So, we'll see how far Brown's celebrity carries him in what appears to be a highly competitive GOP primary.

RTWT at that top link.

Los Angeles Times Fires Investigative Reporter Jason Felch

The dude's a veteran reporter, having worked for the Times since 2004.

See, "Editor's note: The Times acknowledges errors in three articles about Occidental College's reporting of sexual assault allegations" (via Mediagazer):

The Times regrets the errors in the articles. Separately, as they began looking into the complaint, Times editors learned from the author of the articles, staff writer Jason Felch, that he had engaged in an inappropriate relationship with someone who was a source for the Dec. 7 story and others Felch had written about Occidental's handling of sexual assault allegations. Felch acknowledged that after the relationship ended, he continued to use the person as a source for future articles.

Times Editor Davan Maharaj dismissed Felch on Friday. Maharaj said the inappropriate relationship with a source and the failure to disclose it earlier constituted "a professional lapse of the kind that no news organization can tolerate."

He added: "Our credibility depends on our being a neutral, unbiased source of information — in appearance as well as in fact."

Tens of Thousands Rally in Moscow to Protest Russian Intervention in #Ukraine

At the Washington Post, "In Moscow, tens of thousands turn out to protest Russian intervention in Ukraine."

And at BuzzFeed, "Tens of Thousands Protest Putin at Anti-War Rally In Moscow."

Tens Of Thousands Protest Putin At Anti-War Rally In Moscow http://t.co/w9N50mh4BA via @hunterschwarz

— Miriam Elder (@MiriamElder) March 15, 2014

Obama Administration to Relinquish U.S. Control Over Internet

At WSJ, "U.S. Plans to Give Up Oversight of Web Domain Manager: Move Seen in Response to International Concern About Country's Control Over Internet Structure."

I tweeted my thoughts:

Big mistake: U.S. to Give Up Web Oversight. http://t.co/6VYTd1uJuj

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) March 15, 2014

Racist Americans Suddenly Become Sexist in 2016

Seen on Facebook, lol.

What the Seasonal and Cyclical Forces in American Politics Suggest About the Coming Elections

I'm fairly inclined toward cyclical theories of politics, and I'm glad I'm on the right side of the cycle this year.

From Charlie Cook, at National Journal, "You Don't Need a Weatherman":

It's surprising how many people who avidly follow American politics don't seem to appreciate that elections are both seasonal and cyclical in nature.

The seasonal aspect is the more obvious one. Clearly in some years, or seasons, the wind is blowing in favor of one party. In other years, it appears to blow in the opposite direction. In others still, as during the time between seasons, the partisan winds do not seem to blow in any direction at all.

Unfortunately, the cyclical nature is lost on more people. In any given even-numbered year, the House is on a cycle of its own, the Senate another, and the governorships yet another. The easiest to identify is the House cycle; with its two-year terms, all you have to do is look at the previous election. If Democrats had a great year and picked up a large number of Republican seats, you know that Democrats are likely to be overexposed and to suffer losses in the coming election cycle. If Republicans had a banner year in the previous election, they are more likely to lose than to gain seats. It's all pretty straightforward.

In the Senate, with its six-year terms, it is necessary to look back three elections, to the last time that the current class was up for the voters' consideration. If one side had a more successful election six years earlier, that party likely will lose seats this time around. So, in 2014, we are looking at a group of seats last up in 2008. That was a year when President Bush's poll numbers were depleted by the Iraq War and his handling of Hurricane Katrina, and further depressed by the financial crisis and the country's subsequent tumble into a deep recession. The GOP suffered a net loss of eight seats that year. The Democratic success back then explains why the party has 21 seats up this year, including six in heavily Republican states, compared with only 15 GOP seats, only one of which is in a Democratic state.

Because 2010 was a terrific year for Republicans, the GOP will have 24 seats up in 2016, seven of which are in states carried by Obama in 2012. Democrats will have only 10 seats up that year, none in a state Obama carried by fewer than 5 points.

These cycles are very important but not entirely determinative. For example, 2006 was a terrific year for Democrats, so the 2012 election cycle—with 23 Democratic and only 10 Republican seats up—theoretically should have been a good year for the GOP. However, 2012 was a prime example of the seasonality of elections. Obama got reelected by nearly 4 percentage points; his state-of-the-art campaign operation maximized Democratic turnout in a presidential year, which normally favors Democrats more than do midterm elections, when the electorate tends to be older, whiter, and more Republican. Plus, Mitt Romney was no prize candidate for the top of the ticket. Making matters worse, Republicans nominated some rather exotic candidates in Indiana and Missouri, seizing defeat from the jaws of victory, and Republicans elsewhere sustained collateral damage. As a result, an election that once looked like an opportunity for Republicans to gain three seats and a Senate majority resulted in a net GOP loss of three seats, dropping the party's Senate roster to 45, six short of a majority.

Governors, most of whom serve four-year terms, are on yet a third cycle. The 2010 cycle was a horrific one for Democrats, who lost six governorships. This year, Republicans are generally overexposed in gubernatorial races, defending 22 seats to just 14 for Democrats. Nine of the Republican governorships (almost half) are in states Obama carried. Only one of the Democratic seats, Arkansas, is in a state where Romney prevailed in 2012.

Looking at this November's midterms, then, the wind certainly appears to be blowing in favor of Republicans. The main question is whether it is a light, moderate, strong, or hurricane-force wind. In terms of cycles, on the other hand, Democrats picked up just eight House seats in 2012, after having lost 63 seats in 2010 and having gained 52 seats in the solid Democratic years of 2006 and 2008 combined. The House is pretty much sorted out, and minimal change can be expected. Republicans look likely to pick up a handful of seats.

Notice how the normal expectations of that 6-year cycle are broken-up by the electoral impact of a popular presidential incumbent.

More via Memeorandum.

Kelly Brook 'Audition'

She's still got it.

At London's Daily Mail, "She'd get the part! Kelly Brook poses seductively in cleavage-baring white bodice in racy advert for her new perfume Audition."

How to Stop Putin

From Charles Krauthammer, at the Washington Post, "How to stop — or slow — Putin":

The president of the Los Angeles World Affairs Council challenges critics of President Obama’s Ukraine policy by saying, “What are you going to do, send the 101st Airborne into Crimea?” Not exactly subtle. And rather silly, considering that no one has proposed such a thing.

The alternative to passivity is not war but a serious foreign policy. For the past five years, Obama’s fruitless accommodationism has invited the kind of aggressiveness demonstrated by Iran in Syria, China in the East China Sea and Russia in Ukraine. But what’s done is done. Put that aside. What is to be done now?

We have three objectives. In ascending order of difficulty: Reassure NATO. Deter further Russian incursion into Ukraine. Reverse the annexation of Crimea.

Keep reading...

Chelsea Handler Slams Piers Morgan as 'Terrible Interviewer' During 'Piers Morgan Live'

Folks seems to be getting a kick out of this interview, for obvious reasons.



At LAT, "Chelsea Handler and Piers Morgan lay down the smack talk — again."

#Ukraine Update: U.S.-Russia Talks Break Down

At the New York Times, "U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine Fail to Ease Tension":

LONDON — An 11th-hour bid by Secretary of State John Kerry to ease the escalating crisis over the Kremlin’s intervention in Crimea ended in failure on Friday, raising the likelihood of sanctions against Russia and deepening the most serious East-West rift since the end of the Cold War.

American officials said they presented a range of ideas on how a compromise over Crimea might be achieved, including arrangements to expand the peninsula’s autonomy and safeguard the rights of the Russian-speaking population.

But the officials said that Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, appeared to have little or no leeway to negotiate and that President Vladimir V. Putin was determined that Crimea’s referendum on seceding from Ukraine should proceed on Sunday.

“I presented a number of ideas on behalf of the president,” Mr. Kerry said in a news conference after the talks. “After much discussion, the foreign minister made it clear that President Putin is not prepared to make any decision on Ukraine until after the referendum on Sunday.”

More.

'Within the span of a couple months, the Kremlin, by hook and by crook, has cleared all the media underbrush...'

From Julia Ioffie, at the New Republic, "While the West Watches Crimea, Putin Cleans House in Moscow":

While the world awaits Sunday’s referendum in Crimea and nervously watches the Russian troops massing on Ukraine’s eastern border, the world is missing that, in Moscow, Vladimir Putin is busily cleaning house.

Yesterday, Russian journalist Leonid Ragozin wrote here about Putin’s renewed crackdown on the media: What began just days before the Olympics with a Kremlin attack on Dozhd, the last independent television station in Russia, has now extended to Lenta.ru, arguably the best news site in Russia. On Wednesday, the site’s editor-in-chief was fired and replaced with a Kremlin loyalist, and the whole staff quit in protest. Yesterday, the Kremlin went full-China on the Internet, the holy of holies of the Russian opposition. Using some flimsy legal pretexts, it banned access to various oppositional news sites, to the website of Moscow’s biggest radio station, and to the blog of Alexey Navalny, who is currently under house arrest. Last week, the owner of Dozhd announced that, due to the clampdown, the channel is going to close in a couple months.

Within the span of a couple months, the Kremlin, by hook and by crook, has cleared all the media underbrush. There’s suddenly not much left of the independent media, even of what little of it there was left after Putin’s first two terms at the wheel.

But that’s not all. In fact, terrifyingly, it’s not nearly all. Yesterday, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the pseudo-nationalist pseudo-parliamentarian, proposed banning the letter Ы (usually transliterated as “y” into English, as in NavalnY or, say, blinY) from the Russian alphabet because it was too “Asiatic.” The day before that, Vladimir Yakunin, head of Russian Railways, the biggest company in the country, proposed spending “trillions of rubles” on a “Trans-Eurasian Development Belt” that would take certain non-Western, non-Anglo-Saxon values into account. Yakunin added that the West had foisted onto Russia a form of economics—in which, judging by the number of Russian billionaires, it’s been quite successful—that was all growth for the sake of growth, and which annihilated Russia’s intrinsic spirituality. (It’s also a strange statement for a man whose children live in the very heart of the Anglo-Saxon West: London.) And that’s all happening with the backdrop of thousands of mysterious men, armed with state-of-the-art weaponry and dressed in uniforms that look very Russian but that Putin insisted they had “bought in a store.”

Westerners rightly know Russia as a font of absurdity, but lately, it’s been hard to keep up: I’ve been trying to write this post for a solid week now, and have been constantly derailed by the increasingly bizarre and worrying developments coming from the Trans-Eurasian Development Belt.

Keep reading.

'Corinne Fisher and Krystyna Hutchinson have had a lot of sex — and they’re not afraid to talk about it...'

That's from a quote at the Other McCain, "Two Sluts Do ‘Empowering’ Podcast."

R.S. McCain's been doing some, ahem, deep excursions into contemporary feminism. Click through at your own risk, lol.

Quiznos Files for Bankruptcy

I've eaten there just one time. I wasn't all that impressed, but it's mostly that I like other restaurants better.

At Business Week, "Quiznos Follows Sbarro Into Bankruptcy as Competition Grows":

Quiznos, founded in 1981, operates restaurants in all 50 states and 34 countries, according to its website. It has about 2,100 stores, all but seven of them franchised, according to today’s statement.

The chain sells toasted sub-style sandwiches and recently added pasta dishes, such as chicken pesto and macaroni and cheese with bacon, to its menu.

“They expanded too fast, they had a weak franchisee network,” Goldin said. “Once the Paneras of the world came along, I think, many consumers thought that was a better quality price point. And Subway came in on the lower end and aggressively promoted themselves as fresh.”

Malaysia to Investigate Flight MH370 Transponders

At the Wall Street Journal, "Investigators Probe Why Transponders on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Went Off" (via Google):

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia—Malaysian authorities are looking into why the transponders on Flight 370 stopped transmitting data, including the possibility they were deliberately switched off, amid new information that showed the plane continued flying for hours after it fell off civilian radar a week ago.

The missing jet transmitted its location repeatedly to satellites over the course of five hours after it disappeared from radar, people briefed on the matter told The Wall Street Journal. The satellites also received speed and altitude information about the plane from its intermittent "pings," the people said. The final ping was sent from over water, at what one of these people called a normal cruising altitude. They added that it was unclear why the pings stopped. One of the people, an industry official, said it was possible that the system sending them had been disabled by someone on board.

If the plane remained airborne for the entire five hours, it could have flown more than 2,200 nautical miles from its last confirmed position over the Gulf of Thailand, the people said

Defense and Acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein declined to confirm those details "at the moment," but he said investigators will probe why the plane's transponders, which send signals about the aircraft to identify it to radar, went off.

Hong Lei, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, chided Malaysia for not sharing information just three days after Beijing asked the country to accelerate its probe and speed up its search efforts on behalf of the families of passengers on the flight. Of the 239 passengers on the plane, more than 150 were Chinese.

"China urgently appeals to Malaysia for all information they have regarding the search," said Mr. Hong. "That will not only help China with its search but also help all sides in the search to make their search more effective and accurately targeted."

Malaysian authorities said they are working with experts from the U.S. and will receive help from a British team, composed of the country's Air Accidents Investigation Branch and engine maker Rolls-Royce, said Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, director-general of Malaysia's Department of Civil Aviation.

"They also have indicated that they are studying the possibility of satellite communication," Mr. Azharuddin said at a briefing at Kuala Lumpur International Airport...

More.

ADDED: "Satellite Data Reveal Route of Missing Malaysia Airlines Plane: Jetliner 'Pinged' Satellites With Location, Altitude for Hours After Disappearance":

Malaysia Airlines' missing jet transmitted its location repeatedly to satellites over the course of five hours after it disappeared from radar, people briefed on the matter said, as searchers zeroed in on new target areas hundreds of miles west of the plane's original course.

The satellites also received speed and altitude information about the plane from its intermittent "pings," the people said. The final ping was sent from over water, at what one of these people called a normal cruising altitude. They added that it was unclear why the pings stopped. One of the people, an industry official, said it was possible that the system sending them had been disabled by someone on board.

The people, who included a military official, the industry official and others, declined to say what specific path the transmissions revealed. But the U.S. planned to move surveillance planes into an area of the Indian Ocean 1,000 miles or more west of the Malay peninsula where the plane took off, said Cmdr. William Marks, the spokesman for the U.S. Seventh Fleet.

He said the destroyer USS Kidd would move through the Strait of Malacca, on Malaysia's west coast, and stay at its northwest entrance. Malaysia, which is overseeing the search effort, directed Indian forces to a specific set of coordinates in the Andaman Sea, northwest of the Malay peninsula, an Indian official said Thursday. "There was no specified rationale behind looking in those areas, but a detailed list was provided late Wednesday evening," the Indian official said.

The automatic pings, or attempts to link up with satellites operated by Inmarsat PLC, occurred a number of times after Flight 370's last verified position, the people briefed on the situation said, indicating that at least through those five hours, the Boeing Co. BA +1.00%  777 carrying 239 people remained intact and hadn't been destroyed in a crash, act of sabotage or explosion.

Malaysia Airlines said it hadn't received any such data. According to Boeing, the plane's manufacturer, the airline didn't purchase a package through Boeing to monitor its airplanes' data through the satellite system.

Malaysia Airlines said Friday that it has the required maintenance program in place for its Boeing 777, without elaborating.

If the plane remained airborne for the entire five hours, it could have flown more than 2,200 nautical miles from its last confirmed position over the Gulf of Thailand, the people said.

U.S. aviation investigators said they were analyzing the satellite transmissions to determine whether they can glean information about the plane's ultimate location or status. The transmissions were sent via onboard technology designed to send routine maintenance and system-monitoring data back to the ground via satellite links, according to the people familiar with the matter.

Among the possible scenarios investigators said they are now considering is whether the jet may have landed at any point during the five-hour period under scrutiny, or whether it ultimately crashed.

The people said aviation investigators are exploring the possibility that someone on the plane may have intentionally disabled two other automated communication systems in an attempt to avoid detection. One system is the transponders, which transmit to ground radar stations information on the plane's identity, location and altitude, and another system that collects and transmits data about several of the plane's key systems.

The widebody jet was scheduled to fly overnight to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur in the predawn hours of March 8. Its transponders last communicated with Malaysian civilian radar about an hour after takeoff.

New Rosamund Pike Bikini Pics

She's in great shape, although I have to question her boyfriend's "marriage is gay" t-shirt. Seriously. At this point, everyone's so over it.

In any case, at London's Daily Mail, "ABS-olutely stunning: Rosamund Pike, 35, shows off her sculpted abs as she hits the beach with with businessman boyfriend Robie Uniacke, 53, and infant son Solo."

Larry Sabato: 'Democrats Are in Disarray' After FL-13 Shellacking

Here's political prognosticator Larry Sabato, via Freedom's Lighthouse, "Larry Sabato: Obama “is Going to have Another Bad Midterm” in 2014; “Democrats are in Disarray” – Video 3/13/14."



And see Sabato's Crystal Ball, "Senate Update: Domino Effects." I'm more interested in the Senate. Republicans won't lose the House and will probably pick up a few seats in any case. But the GOP needs six seats in the upper chamber and that remains to be seen.

See Charlie Cook as well, "What FL-13 Could Mean For Democrats." And at the Tampa Bay Times, "David Jolly's victory spells trouble for Democrats nationwide."

Residents in Provincial Southern Ukraine Defend Statue of Vladmir Ilyich Lenin

At Der Spiegel, "Saving Lenin: Soviet-Era Statue a Symbol of Divided Ukraine":

Far away from the protests in major urban centers, the conflict in Ukraine is now reaching all corners of the land. The dispute over a local Lenin statue underscores the country's deep divide.

The revolution reached the Ukrainian city of Illichivsk in the form of a rumor. Three buses, it was said, were on their way to the city from the western part of the country, bearing men carrying weapons who were coming to destroy the city's golden Lenin statue.

The statue in question stands around seven meters (23 feet) high atop a plinth of black granite. It's made of cast bronze and painted a reddish gold. Against a background of Soviet-era apartment blocks, Lenin is a seven-meter dwarf, striding long-legged through the world. The statue's facial expression, though, seems to suggest he knows where things are headed.

Kristina Fabrika has passed by this statue all through her 21 years. Her mother carried her past it on walks when she was a baby. Fabrika played tag here as a young girl. And she still stops by when she goes into town for the evening.

But on this particular evening in early March, while men in uniform occupy the Crimean parliament building and fly a Russian flag, Fabrika is pacing up and down in front of the Lenin statue in leather pants, a leather jacket and black knee-high combat boots. "This is our city," she says.

A City Removed from Bloodshed

Illichivsk is a small city in the far south of Ukraine. The mayor says Illichivsk, population 60,000, was named after the prophet Elijah. People on the street say the name comes from Lenin's middle name, Ilyich. In any case, the statue in honor of the man stands on a road likewise named Lenin Street, at one end of a boulevard lined with plane trees. Between the city's apartment blocks, the golden Lenin shines like a small sun.

Illichivsk is far removed from the bloodshed of the Maidan protest movement. The majority of people in the country aren't out throwing Molotov cocktails. Most are people like Fabrika, normal people, and these are the ones who matter now. They must find a sense of civic solidarity that can unite the south, north, east and west of this country. They must raise up a nation out of the ruins.

News of the threat to Illichivsk's Lenin statue reached Fabrika at the school where she teaches adults to create websites. Her mother called and said, "Do you know what's happening in town?" Fabrika drove to the statue as soon as the lesson was over.

Fabrika describes herself as apolitical, yet these days she talks about politics day and night. She understands that history is happening in her country, and she wants to be a part of it.

When she reached the Lenin statue that day, Fabrika found that hundreds of people, some carrying clubs, had already gathered there. Like her, they had come to protect their Lenin.

They filled an oil barrel with firewood and set up tents to shield themselves from the freezing rain. Most people went home again when the enemy failed to materialize, but a few toughed it out and continued to stand guard.

Business as Usual

Until this rumor started, the protest movement was something far removed from life here. Lviv was celebrating freedom, Kiev was burning, the Russians were descending on Crimea, but in Illichivsk, located on a quiet stretch of the Black Sea coast near Odessa, nothing was burning and no one was celebrating. The city simply went about business as usual, life as it had been under deposed President Viktor Yanukovych and, before that, under the Soviets as well. People here believed they were safe from the sort of chaos that topples governments, kills people and destroys monuments.

Since the occupation of Maidan Square in Kiev began in the fall, Lenin statues have been toppling all around Ukraine. The Communist Party erected these statues in honor of Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, known as Lenin, founder of the Soviet Union, while Ukraine was still part of the Soviet Union. They were meant to serve as a symbol of Moscow's power. Now, they've become a symbol of revolution in a different way entirely.

In Kiev, demonstrators pulled one Lenin statue to the ground using a steel cable. In Andriyevo-Ivanivka they broke a statue into pieces. In Khmelnitsky, they tore a Lenin statue down, then danced on it. In Kotovsk, they tore its head off.

In front of Kristina Fabrika's Lenin, flames flicker in the oil barrel. The statue here is still standing, and its protectors have speared thick pieces of bacon on sticks and are roasting them over the fire. "For vitamin C," one woman says, humorously.

The woman speaks Russian, like nearly everyone in Illichivsk. Fabrika does speak Ukrainian, but she learned it as a foreign language. One of her grandmothers was born in a town near Moscow.

Fabrika says she didn't really pay any attention to the protests in Kiev at first. It wasn't until the police attacked the protesters on Maidan Square, she says, that she knew there would be war.

More.

Ukrainian Oligarch Dmitry Firtash Arrested in Vienna

At the New York Times, "At Request of U.S., Austria Arrests Ukrainian Businessman":

MOSCOW — The Austrian authorities have arrested a Ukrainian entrepreneur, Dmitry V. Firtash, on bribery and other charges at the request of American law enforcement agencies. Mr. Firtash has strong connections to the ousted Ukrainian president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, and also conducts extensive business in natural gas with Russia.

The Austrian federal police identified the man only as Dmitry F., a 48-year-old Ukrainian citizen, and said he was arrested Wednesday evening in a district of Vienna without incident. A government source confirmed that it was Mr. Firtash. The F.B.I. has been investigating Mr. Firtash since 2006, and an arrest warrant had been issued for him by a federal judge in Virginia, the Austrian authorities said.

The arrest comes amid political turmoil in Ukraine, with Russian forces occupying the Crimean peninsula in the south and regional officials there seeking to break away from Ukraine to become part of Russia.

In a statement, Mr. Firtash’s main company, Group DF, confirmed his arrest but called it a “misunderstanding” with no connection to the unrest in Ukraine. The company said the action in Austria was “related to an investment project dated 2006.”

More.

Russia Counts Cost as West Tightens Sanctions Noose

At Telegraph UK:

The West has threatened visa bans and an asset freeze on individuals unless Russia steps back from the brink on the annexation of Crimea.

Russia risks a wave of capital flight and a shattering economic crisis as the West prepares a package of sanctions over the seizure of Crimea.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel spelled out the danger for Russia in a speech that silenced pro-Kremlin voices in her own coalition and left no doubt that Europe is now fully behind the US on punitive measures.

“If Russia continues on its course of the past weeks, that will not only be a great catastrophe for Ukraine. It will cause massive damage to Russia, both economically and politically,” she said. “None of us wants it to come to this, but we are determined to act. Let me be absolutely clear; the territorial integrity of Ukraine is not up for discussion.”

The West has threatened visa bans and an asset freeze on individuals as early as Monday unless Russia steps back from the brink on the annexation of Crimea. This now looks certain since Russian troops are continuing to dig in across the peninsula before this Sunday’s vote on secession. “It can get ugly fast if the wrong choices are made, and it can get ugly in multiple directions,” said John Kerry, US Secretary of State.

The US and the EU will escalate to “additional and far-reaching” measures if the picture deteriorates, a likely outcome since Ukraine’s premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk has vowed to resist any loss of sovereign soil.

Russia has threatened to retaliate with “symmetrical sanctions” but Tim Ash, from Standard Bank, said it is a one-sided contest that Moscow cannot win. “Russia is facing the entire West. Its economy is already very weak and this could end up being as bad as 2008-2009, when GDP contracted by 9pc,” he said.

Russia cannot suspend oil and gas exports without cutting off its own source of foreign revenue. Any such move would destroy its credibility as a supplier of energy, accelerating Europe’s long-term switch to other sources.

Russian companies have $653bn (£392bn) of foreign dollar debt, and must roll over roughly $150bn this year. Yields on five-year bonds have already spiked 200 basis points, even for blue-chip firms. The rouble has fallen 11pc this year after dropping 8pc last year, making dollar debts harder to repay. “It is going to be very difficult to roll over these bonds, and it will be at much higher cost,” said Mr Ash.

Capital flight reached $63bn last year. Former finance minister Alexei Kudrin said this could reach $50bn a quarter as the crisis deepens. The central bank has already raised interest rates sharply to stem outflows, pushing the economy into recession.

Russia has $480bn of foreign reserves but these cannot easily be used in a downturn since it entails monetary tightening. The Kremlin caused a drastic fall in the money supply and a banking crisis when it ran down reserves by $200bn after the Lehman crisis...

Keep reading.

'What were you wearing when you were sexually assaulted? ...'

Oh boy.

At the Daily Dot, "The ethics of embedding tweets":

Yes, Twitter is public. Anything you post can legally be reposted on news sites like BuzzFeed, even if it’s something you shared under the mistaken assumption that an audience smaller than BuzzFeed’s would see it.

And following the links takes us to BuzzFeed, "Sexual Assault Survivors Answer the Question 'What Were You Wearing When You Were Assaulted?'"

So stupid. And stop with the moral attacks on BuzzFeed. You tweet something and it's out there. Don't get all pissed off at BuzzFeed if it aggregates them in story. Doh.

More at WaPo, "#etiquette: Buzzfeed posted tweets from sexual assault victims. Good call or not?" (Via Mediagazer.)

Texas Father Shoots Teen Boy Hiding In Daughter's Room

This is almost depressing.

TEACH WOMEN NOT TO LIE ABOUT RAPE: Daughter’s lie gets bf shot by father who thought he was rapist http://t.co/hMdYoPZi4L via @Instapundit.

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) March 14, 2014

Ukraine Appeals to U.S. for Arms, Ammunition and Intelligence Support

Well, Obama won't do jack to help Ukraine, other than to yap about how the amorphous international community's going to impose "costs." Yep, that oughta have Putin quaking in his boots.

At WSJ, "U.S. Balks at Ukraine Military-Aid Request: U.S. Officials Wary of Inflaming Russia, Agree Only to MREs" (via Google):

WASHINGTON—Ukraine's interim government has appealed for U.S. military aid, including arms, ammunition and intelligence support, according to senior U.S. officials. But the Obama administration has agreed to send only military rations for now, wary of inflaming tensions with Russia.

The U.S. decision reflects the Pentagon's reluctance to be seen as directly supporting Ukraine's beleaguered armed forces during the standoff with Russia, which has seized the Ukrainian region of Crimea.

The risk of escalation was underscored by Russia's move on Thursday to conduct another military exercise near Ukraine. The Kremlin also confirmed it has sent six Sukhoi fighter jets and three transport planes to another former Soviet republic, Belarus, for joint patrols.

Belarusian officials said the move came in response to increased air patrols in the region by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization amid the Ukraine crisis.

Amid such shows of force, U.S. officials acknowledge the Obama administration faces a difficult balancing act. It wants to show support for Ukraine's interim leaders without further antagonizing an unpredictable Moscow or inadvertently emboldening the Ukrainian military to take steps that could spark violence.

"It's not a forever 'no,' it's a 'no for now,'" a senior U.S. official said of Ukraine's request for lethal military support.

Ahead of a visit to Ukraine Friday with other lawmakers, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona criticized the administration's response. "We shouldn't be imposing arms embargoes on victims of aggression," he said.

Ukraine's request coincided with this week's visit to the White House by the country's new prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and came just before Secretary of State John Kerry was scheduled to meet his Russian counterpart in London in a last-ditch bid for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. A referendum Sunday could decide whether the region of Crimea breaks away from Ukraine and joins Russia.

Addressing the U.N. Security Council in New York on Thursday, Mr. Yatsenyuk offered dialogue with Russia to become "real partners" and vowed to defend all minorities in the country. The U.S. said it had drafted a resolution declaring Sunday's referendum illegal, but it is likely to be vetoed by Russia.

Mr. Kerry spoke briefly with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday, reiterating U.S. concerns about the referendum. Mr. Kerry, in testimony before a congressional panel, signaled that U.S. and its European allies were preparing to take "a very serious series of steps" on Monday, barring a change of course by Moscow.

The sanctions threat was underscored by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who delivered an uncharacteristically sharp warning to Russia.

She said Europe was ready to impose visa bans and asset freezes if Moscow didn't agree to start negotiations with Kiev, and that the West was ready to impose broader economic sanctions if Ukraine were further threatened.

"If Russia continues with its policy of the past weeks, then this wouldn't only be a disaster for Ukraine. We as neighboring states would also regard this as a threat," Ms. Merkel said in a speech to parliament in Berlin.

"This wouldn't only change the relationship between the European Union as a whole to Russia, but would also, and I am deeply convinced of this, massively damage Russia economically and politically," she said.

In a sign of how serious the situation had become, Ms. Merkel felt the need to make it clear that "military action isn't an option for us." But her speech evoked Europe's bloody history, including the world wars and the Holocaust, in insisting that territorial conflicts on the continent shouldn't be repeated.

Her warnings toward Russia are virtually unprecedented for a German leader in recent decades, a period in which Germany has tried to reconcile with its World War II adversary.

Germany's business ties to Russia, with some $100 billion in trade yearly, are closer than that of any other Western nation.

Still more at the click-through.

Irreplaceable Twitter Can't Keep Crashing Like It Did on Tuesday

Well, I was teaching so I didn't miss a thing, heh.

At Wired, "Why Twitter Can’t Keep Crashing."

The Dystopian Internet of 2025

Well, you may have seen reports like this, at the Independent UK, "25 years of the World Wide Web: Tim Berners-Lee explains how it all began."

Ok fine. But what about this little symposium at the Wall Street Journal? The experts aren't so thrilled with the future world of 2025, "What the Internet of 2025 Might Look Like":

Daily Dark Realities

Llewellyn Kriel, CEO of TopEditor International Media Services: “Everything — every thing — will be available online with price tags attached. Cyber-terrorism will become commonplace. Privacy and confidentiality of any and all personal will become a thing of the past. Online ‘diseases’ — mental, physical, social, addictions (psycho-cyber drugs) — will affect families and communities and spread willy-nilly across borders. The digital divide will grow and worsen beyond the control of nations or global organizations such as the UN. This will increasingly polarize the planet between haves and have-nots. Global companies will exploit this polarization. Digital criminal networks will become realities of the new frontiers. Terrorism, both by organizations and individuals, will be daily realities. The world will become less and less safe, and only personal skills and insights will protect individuals.”

*****

‘Dystopian World’

John Markoff, senior Science writer at the New York Times: “What happens the first time you answer the phone and hear from your mother or a close friend, but it’s actually not, and instead, it’s a piece of malware that is designed to social engineer you. What kind of a world will we have crossed over into? I basically began as an Internet utopian (think John Perry Barlow), but I have since realized that the technical and social forces that have been unleashed by the microprocessor hold out the potential of a very dystopian world that is also profoundly inegalitarian. I often find myself thinking, ‘Who said it would get better?’”

I don't doubt it for a second. The Net's already a mean and dangerous place. And the way things are going right now, it's only going to get meaner, more dangerous, with Hobbesian indifference to lurking pain and enduriing malevolence. I have no doubt.

Democrats Blame Low Turnout for Electoral Disaster in Florida's 13th Congressional District

Another follow-up to this, "In Preview of 2014 Midterms, Republican David Jolly Wins Special Election for Florida's 13th Congressional District."

At WaPo, "Democrats pinning Fla. special election loss on dismal turnout effort":

In private meetings, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and top lieutenants told lawmakers that the race would not define the midterm elections in November, also pinning the defeat on a dismal turnout effort, according to aides and lawmakers in the meetings.

“It’s a disappointment, I won’t pretend it isn’t,” said Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.), exiting a House Democratic Caucus meeting that Pelosi tried to keep focused on staying the course toward the midterms. “It’s a loss, it’s a disappointment. It’s not the end of the world. And I don’t know that it tells you a lot about the complexion of the election in November of this year.”

Republicans openly mocked the Democratic effort to explain the results.

“It’s very significant, by any objective standard,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in an interview, citing the Republican candidate David Jolly’s first-time candidacy and record as a Washington lobbyist as reasons he should have been defeated. Democrats fielded a former statewide official and spent more money than the GOP, while Jolly focused relentlessly on Obama’s handling of the Affordable Care Act’s implementation.

“It’s an indication the American people in a swing district, or arguably a blue district, might want to go in a different direction,” McConnell said.

The Jolly victory came just days after GOP strategists were privately mocking the quality of his campaign. It put Democrats deeply on the defensive because their candidate, 2010 gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink, ran what party officials considered a textbook campaign by pledging — on camera in TV ads that ran heavily — that she would work to fix parts of the health-care law but not entirely repeal it.

Her campaign message is expected to be repeated over and over by Democratic challengers in GOP districts throughout the nation, as well as by four key Senate incumbents who voted for the 2010 health-care measure. The fate of those four senators, all running in states Obama lost in 2012, is likely to determine the balance of power in the Senate, where GOP candidates are clear favorites in at least two states and would need four more to claim the majority.

There's simply no spinning this loss. And while it's true that House races are idiosyncratic and localized, the political momentum goes to the Republicans. It's already bad for the Democrats this year and there was no catching a break in FL-13. In that regard, the implications are huge. Frankly, there's not much the leftist idiots can do at this point. The November midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on their poor policies and leadership, and the president's a drag on Democratic candidates across the board.

See Josh Kraushaar at National Journal for more, via Memeorandum, "Why a Republican Wave in 2014 is Looking More Likely Now."

My Life as a Retail Worker After Being Fired for Racism (And After Domestic Violence Conviction)

Former Politico reporter Joe Williams bemoans working retail, via Instapundit, "FORMER POLITICO REPORTER DISCOVERS THAT working retail is hard":

Do tell. I worked retail all the way through college.

Click through to RTWT.

Obama's Face Is All Over Fake Viagra in Pakistan

Pfft.

He's fake alright. And in Pakistan no less.

No doubt lots of village elders are pounding underage virgins with the help of the President of the United States.

Obama's face is all over fake Viagra in Pakistan pic.twitter.com/X7AKWP6R1x http://t.co/D8Vut3QLhn
— HuffPost Politics (@HuffPostPol) February 19, 2014