White-Out: Where #Democrats Lost the House

From Ron Brownstein, at National Journal, "In 2009, 76 Democrats represented primarily white working-class congressional districts. Just 15 of them are still in the House today":

Beautiful RT @BlakeSeitz: Zero to 100, real quick. pic.twitter.com/tgetbB22LR

— Kemberlee Kaye (@KemberleeKaye) November 5, 2014

Republicans have surged to their largest majority in the House of Representatives since before the Great Depression by blunting the Democratic advantage in districts being reshaped by growing racial diversity and consolidating a decisive hold over the seats that are not.

Compared with 2009 and 2010, when Democrats last controlled the House, the Republican majority that takes office this week has essentially held its ground in districts where minorities exceed their share of the national population, a Next America analysis has found. Aided by their control of redistricting after the 2010 census, Republicans over the past three elections have simultaneously established an overwhelming 3-1 advantage in districts where whites exceed their national presence, the analysis shows. Those white-leaning districts split between the parties almost equally during the 111th Congress, in 2009-10.

A majority of the GOP gains since then have come from the Democrats' near-total collapse in one set of districts: the largely blue-collar places in which the white share of the population exceeds the national average, and the portion of whites with at least a four-year college degree is less that the national average. While Republicans held a 20-seat lead in the districts that fit that description in the 111th Congress, the party has swelled that advantage to a crushing 125 seats today. That 105-seat expansion of the GOP margin in these districts by itself accounts for about three-quarters of the 136-seat swing from the Democrats' 77-seat majority in 2009 to the 59-seat majority Republicans enjoy in the Congress convening now.

The GOP dominance in these predominantly white working-class districts underscores the structural challenge facing Democrats: While the party has repeatedly captured the White House despite big deficits among the working-class white voters who once anchored its electoral coalition, these results show how difficult it will be to recapture the House without improving on that performance. "The question is: Are we at rock bottom here?" says Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic voter targeting firm TargetSmart Communications.

These trends present Republicans with a mirror-image challenge. The vast majority of their House members can thrive without devising an agenda on issues—such as immigration reform—that attract the minority voters whose growing numbers nationally have helped Democrats win the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections. "When you can go out screaming 'amnesty' and not get any pushback in your districts, you are more prone to scream 'amnesty,' " says veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres. "It leads to an attitude of: 'problem, what problem?'"...

Keep reading.

The way things are going it could be a decade before the Democrats are competitive in congressional elections --- that is, they're not likely to retake the majority in the House for quite some time. Thus, even if the GOP can't retain their Senate majority, Republicans will still have a legislative check on the White House should the Democrat Party continue its dominance in presidential elections. And keep in mind, the Democrats are the party of old white people (as seen in their top-tier candidates for the 2016 nomination). If Republicans remain disciplined, and select an excellent candidate for the GOP nomination, look out.

It's going to be fascinating.