Bearish on HRC

From Megan McArdle, at Bloomberg, "Clinton Support Has Nowhere to Go But Down":

I've long been bearish on Hillary Clinton. It isn't that I particularly dislike her; I don't, and there are certainly a number of presidential aspirants that I like less. I'm simply puzzled at what seems to be the conventional wisdom among Democrats I meet: that Clinton basically has a lock on the presidency, and the next 18 months are a tiresome formality we have to go through in order to set the right tone for her swearing in.

My bearishness had a bit of confirmation this week: a poll showed that Clinton had dropped from massive double-digit leads over plausible Republican presidential contenders to something more in the range of 1-3 points. Tempting though it is to leap on a single piece of data and declare victory, I will ruthlessly squash this primitive urge. It's a single poll, and others will likely show Clinton with more commanding leads in the near term.

However, I do think that Fred Barnes is right that as the polls narrow, we can expect to see some panic from the Democrats. By allowing Clinton to take the lion's share of the fundraising dollars and the media attention, the party has left itself without a plausible alternative candidate. That seemed dandy as long as she was easily trouncing Republicans in polls. But those polls were always going to narrow, because the early polls were basically measuring whether people recognized the candidate's name, not whether they were going to vote for her more than a year hence. As the GOP race sorts out, and the front-runners achieve more public awareness, you're going to see our highly partisan electorate lock into much narrower margins.

Moreover, Clinton will have less room to improve her margins than whoever the Republican is...

More.

And here's Fred Barnes, "The Coming Democratic Panic."

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