U.S. to Bulk Up Military Presence in Eastern Europe

If you take seriously the analysis of Graham Allison and Dimitri Simes from April, at the National Interest, then the U.S. plan to bulk up its military presence along the Russian border is extremely provocative and probably counterproductive.

See the New York Times, "U.S. Poised to Put Heavy Weaponry in East Europe":

RIGA, Latvia — In a significant move to deter possible Russian aggression in Europe, the Pentagon is poised to store battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons for as many as 5,000 American troops in several Baltic and Eastern European countries, American and allied officials say.

The proposal, if approved, would represent the first time since the end of the Cold War that the United States has stationed heavy military equipment in the newer NATO member nations in Eastern Europe that had once been part of the Soviet sphere of influence. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine have caused alarm and prompted new military planning in NATO capitals.

It would be the most prominent of a series of moves the United States and NATO have taken to bolster forces in the region and send a clear message of resolve to allies and to Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, that the United States would defend the alliance’s members closest to the Russian frontier.

After the expansion of NATO to include the Baltic nations in 2004, the United States and its allies avoided the permanent stationing of equipment or troops in the east as they sought varying forms of partnership with Russia.

“This is a very meaningful shift in policy,” said James G. Stavridis, a retired admiral and the former supreme allied commander of NATO, who is now dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. “It provides a reasonable level of reassurance to jittery allies, although nothing is as good as troops stationed full-time on the ground, of course.”

The amount of equipment included in the planning is small compared with what Russia could bring to bear against the NATO nations on or near its borders, but it would serve as a credible sign of American commitment, acting as a deterrent the way that the Berlin Brigade did after the Berlin Wall crisis in 1961...

Interesting, although there's not a lot of talk of the downsides.

Are Western nations, and in particular the United States, prepared to take military fatalities in a conflict with Moscow? There's nothing I've seen this past few years to indicate this is so, in fact, polls show entirely the opposite when discussing any proposal for boots on the ground overseas.

There was one poll out a few months ago suggesting that Americans are ready to put troops back into Iraq, but how about into Poland or Eastern Ukraine? Call me skeptical.

Perhaps a show of force will make Vladimir Putin think twice about his foreign policy challenges to the West? But considering the minimal price he's paid for the push toward Russian expansionism, I wouldn't bet against him.

Keep reading, in any case.