Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Latest New Hampshire Republican Poll Shows Donald Trump with 24-Point Lead Over Ted Cruz

The poll's out from UMass Lowell, "Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Trump Leads GOP, Cruz and Rubio."

It's interesting. Trump lost two percentage points to Cruz overnight following the Iowa caucuses, but still hold a huge double-digit lead. And as I reported earlier, he's back in vintage form along the campaign trail.

Here, "Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Trump Leads GOP, Cruz and Rubio":

Donald Trump, at 38 percent support among likely voters, continues to lead all candidates in the Republican primary, but 44 percent of Republicans polled reported that they could still change their mind before Feb. 9. Voters who support Trump remain the most sure of their choice at 69 percent, but this is down from 72 percent in yesterday’s tracking poll results. Support for other GOP candidates is less firm with half or more of voters who favor candidates including Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Rand Paul saying they could change their minds.

The GOP field also saw some movement since yesterday, with Trump’s nearest rivals Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio each gaining two points among likely Republican primary voters polled. Cruz, who won yesterday’s Iowa caucus, is at 14 percent and Rubio is at 10 percent. John Kasich and Jeb Bush are tied at 9 percent, Chris Christie is at 5 percent, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina at 3 percent and Rand Paul at 2 percent. Mike Huckabee, who has suspended his campaign, had zero percent among voters polled...
From the poll highlights:
Trump is the frontrunner in a race without a clear challenger. Cruz takes 12% of the vote, while former governors John Kasich and Jeb Bush take 9% each, Senator Marco Rubio takes 8%, while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie gets the support of 7% of likely voters. No other candidate is above 3% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee did not receive support (zero) from any Republican likely voters surveyed. Trump’s voters are the most certain, with 72% saying that their votes are definite, while 28% say that they “could change their mind.” For candidates like Bush and Rubio, majorities (59% and 57%, respectively) say they could change their mind.

Trump’s support is strongest among men and those with lower levels of education. Those whose highest level of education is a high school diploma (and below) support Trump at 46%,compared to those with a post graduate degree who support Trump at only 18%. Interestingly, Trump’s support is consistent across income levels, between Independents and Republicans and between Moderates and Conservatives. In fact, the only demographic category in which another candidate is preferred to Trump is among those who we identified as being very religious (attend church at least once a week and view scriptures as without any flaws). The most religious voters apparently prefer Ted Cruz to Trump, albeit by a narrow and not statistically significant margin, 7% to 24%.
Also, "UMass Lowell/7News: Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters Release 1."