Tuesday, March 29, 2016

First Quarter GDP Growth Tracking at Just 0.9 Percent

Depression economics.

Next to global Islamic appeasement, meager economic growth (due to ideology and statism) will be the key Obama legacy.

At CBNC, "Shocker cuts to Q1 growth pace show faltering economy" (via Conservative Treehouse):
First-quarter growth is now tracking at just 0.9 percent, after new data showed surprising weakness in consumer spending and a wider-than-expected trade gap.

According to the CNBC/Moody's Analytics rapid update, economists now see the sluggish growth pace based on already reported data, down from 1.4 percent last week. According to the rapid update, economists have a median forecast of 1.6 percent growth in first-quarter GDP, which includes their estimates for data not yet released.

"It's not a polar vortex winter. You can't blame the weather this year. It's the consumer. I think there's a problem with the measurement but at the end of the day if the world were as good as we'd hoped, people would feel better and it's not showing up," said Diane Swonk of DS Economics.

Personal income rose 0.2 percent in February, a tenth above expectations, and spending was up 0.1 percent. But revisions to January's spending data wiped out earlier solid gains and showed spending marginally higher — at 0.1 percent from an earlier 0.5 percent.

Fourth-quarter GDP growth was reported at 1.4 percent Friday, revised up from 1 percent.

Economists had been hopeful the first quarter would show a snapback with growth above 2 percent, and some have been optimistic that weak manufacturing was beginning to show signs of bottoming.

They note the size of the revision to consumer spending is rare.

"It's not falling off the cliff. We're not in a recession but it's consistent with worry," said Swonk...