Trump Ahead by 11-Points in New Hampshire; Rubio Surges in 'Battle for the Second Tier' (VIDEO)

The story's at Newsmax, "CNN/WMUR Poll: Trump Has 11-Point Lead on Rubio":

Here are the results:

Donald Trump: 29 percent
Marco Rubio: 18 percent
Ted Cruz: 13 percent
John Kasich: 12 percent
Jeb Bush: 10 percent
Chris Christie: 4 percent
Carly Fiorina: 4 percent
Ben Carson: 2 percent
Jim Gilmore: 0 percent

And watch, via CNN.

I like that, the "battle for the second tier," heh:



And from yesterday, "Donald Trump Now Holds 21-Point Lead in New Hampshire Tracking Poll; Marco Rubio Scores Post-Iowa Bounce."

I'm going to take a look and see what's up with the UMass poll and will update. Stay tuned...

Hillary Clinton 44 Percent, Bernie Sanders 42 Percent, in New National Quinnipiac Poll

It's within the margin of error. Basically, Bernie's got that dead heat thing going nationally with "Secretary" Clinton.

At Quinnipiac, "February 5, 2016 - U.S. Republicans Want Trump, But Rubio Is Best In November, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Dem Race Is Tied, But Sanders Runs Better Against GOP":

Donald Trump still leads the GOP presidential pack among Republican voters nationwide, with 31 percent, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 22 percent and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 19 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 6 percent, with 9 percent undecided and no other candidate above 3 percent.

In the Democratic race nationwide, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has 44 percent, with Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 42 percent, and 11 percent undecided. This compares to a 61 - 30 percent Clinton lead in a December 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll.

Sanders and Rubio are the strongest candidates in general election matchups. If former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs, he hurts Sanders more than he hurts any of the top Republican contenders.

Among Republicans, 30 percent say they "would definitely not support" Trump, while 15 percent say no to Cruz and 7 percent say no to Rubio.

Sanders has the highest favorability rating among top candidates, while Trump has the lowest.

"Democrats nationwide are feeling the Bern as Sen. Bernie Sanders closes a 31-point gap to tie Secretary Hillary Clinton," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"And despite the Iowa setback, Donald Trump is way ahead of his GOP opponents."

"But that's not the whole story nine months before Election Day. In mano a mano, or mano a womano, face-offs with all contenders, Sanders and Rubio would be the candidates left standing," Malloy added.

"Although he is characterized as the New York counterpunch to Trump, Mayor Mike Bloomberg is more the nemesis of Bernie than he is of Donald." 

Still more.

In a national match-up, "Sanders thumps Trump 49 - 39 percent."

Ted Cruz and the Art of the Dirty Trick

Following-up from yesterday, "Ted Cruz Campaign Sent Voicemails to Iowa Voters Spreading Ben Carson 'Suspension' Rumors (AUDIO)."

From Amy Davidson, at the New Yorker:

There has never been a more tainted victory in the Iowa caucuses,” a spokesman for Ben Carson’s campaign said on Tuesday. He was referring to what he called Ted Cruz’s “abject lies” and, particularly, to what appears to have been a concerted effort on the part of the Cruz campaign to persuade voters at caucuses that Carson had dropped out. Carson himself told Fox News that his wife had had to personally refute that rumor at one caucus site—and once she had, he said, he won there. “Isn’t this the exact kind of thing that the American people are tired of? Why would we want to continue that kind of, you know, shenanigans?” Donald Trump put the charge in his own terms in a tweet: “Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!”

That was only part of what Trump had to say. He threatened to sue Cruz; he made himself the champion of the honor of Ben Carson, a man who Trump has suggested is “pathological.” He tweeted that “the State of Iowa should disqualify Ted Cruz from the most recent election on the basis that he cheated—a total fraud!” Cruz had also sent out a mailer marked “Voter Violation,” which purported to contain information about voters and their neighbors, and was printed on yellow paper to look like a real ticket—which, as Ryan Lizza noted, was just the beginning of its problems. It was a “disgrace,” Trump said, adding what was, for a New York real-estate developer, the ultimate insult: “It looks right out of municipal government.” Cruz tried to dismiss it all as a “Trumpertantrum.” The problem was that, in the whirlwind of Trump’s rage, there were some hard objects swirling around and banging into Cruz’s story.

Cruz has said that he won Iowa by being uncompromising and clever, with all those data-driven, micro-targeted canvassing runs—part of what his campaign reportedly called the Oorlog Project. According to Sasha Issenberg, of Bloomberg News, it was “named by a Cruz data scientist who searched online for ‘war’ translated into different languages and thought the Afrikaner word looked coolest.” (“War” is cool; “war” with a hint of an illiberal siege mentality in its orthography is, apparently, coolest.) And it was, by all accounts, a get-out-the-vote drive like none other—even better than Barack Obama’s, in 2008, which had set the standard...

Keep reading.

The "art of the dirty trick." "Artful smears."

This is getting to the mos artful election ever, lol.

Ted Cruz Campaign Sent Voicemails to Iowa Voters Spreading Ben Carson 'Suspension' Rumors (AUDIO)

The story's at Big Government, "EXCLUSIVE–Voicemails: ‘Ben Carson Suspending Campaigning’; Cruz: ‘Accurate Report’."

Here's #1:

[inaudible]…from the Ted Cruz campaign, calling to get to a precinct captain, and it has just been announced that Ben Carson is taking a leave of absence from the campaign trail, so it is very important that you tell any Ben Carson voters that for tonight, uh, that they not waste a vote on Ben Carson, and vote for Ted Cruz. He is taking a leave of absence from his campaign. All right? Thank you. Bye.

Here's #2:

Hello, this is the Cruz campaign with breaking news: Dr. Ben Carson will be [garbled] suspending campaigning following tonight’s caucuses. Please inform any Carson caucus goers of this news and urge them to caucus for Ted instead. Thank you. Good night.

More at TPM, via Memeorandum, "Cruz Camp Left Iowa Voters Voice Mails Repeating Carson ‘Suspending’ Rumors."

Donald Trump Now Holds 21-Point Lead in New Hampshire Tracking Poll; Marco Rubio Scores Post-Iowa Bounce

Following-up from Tuesday, "Latest New Hampshire Republican Poll Shows Donald Trump with 24-Point Lead Over Ted Cruz."

Trump still holds a commanding lead, Ted Cruz is flat, and Marco Rubio's enjoying a post-Iowa bump.

On Twitter:

Rubio gains in @UML_CPO @7News #NHPrimary tracking poll b/c of gains w/ women, age 65+ and registered Republicans https://t.co/8rcR1o7YS8

— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 4, 2016

Rubio w/ post-#IACaucus bounce, but trails Trump by 21; Trump stable @ 38, 38, 38 & 36 (today) in 4 days of tracking https://t.co/8rcR1o7YS8

— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 4, 2016

Re: Umass NH poll, see page 6 at link. Note trend post Iowa. Trump slightly down, Cruz flat, Rubio daily uptick.https://t.co/NA6JStJjYM

— Brit Hume (@brithume) February 4, 2016

Young Democrats Reject Hillary Clinton's 'Slick Willy' Reprise, Flock to Bernie Sanders

Hillary's slick, just like her husband, "Slick Willy" --- and the Democrat youth demographic's not going for it.

At NYT, "Young Democrats Flock to Bernie Sanders, Spurning Hillary Clinton’s Polish and Poise":

Is youth in rebellion against Hillary Clinton? @Yamiche and I report: https://t.co/7VR5Bdywor

— Amy Chozick (@amychozick) February 4, 2016

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Bernie Sanders is 74. He grew up playing stickball in the streets of Brooklyn and watching a black-and-white television.

Yet this child of the 1940s, who says Franklin D. Roosevelt is his favorite president, has inspired a potent political movement among young people today. College students wear shaggy white “Bernie” wigs on campus, carry iPhones with his image as their screen saver, and flock to his events by the thousands.

And armies of young voters are turning what seemed like a long-shot presidential candidacy into a surprisingly competitive campaign.

“He may seem like some old geezer who doesn’t care about stuff,” said Caroline Buddin, 24, a sales associate in Charleston, S.C. “But if you actually give him the time of day, and listen to what he has to say, he has a lot of good ideas.”

In interviews, young supporters of the Vermont senator’s presidential bid almost all offer some version of the same response when asked why they like him: He seems sincere.

For the generation that researchers say has been the most bombarded with marketing slogans and advertising pitches, Mr. Sanders, the former mayor of Burlington, Vt., has a certain unpolished appeal.

The first group of students working to elect Bernie Sanders president sprang up at Middlebury College in Vermont. There are now similar chapters at over 220 campuses across the country, with the biggest one at the University of California at Berkeley.

The movement, at least initially, was not so much the result of an organized effort by the Sanders campaign, but more of a visceral response to the candidate.

“It seems like he is at the point in his life when he is really saying what he is thinking,” said Olivia Sauer, 18, a college freshman who returned to her hometown, Ames, Iowa, to caucus for Mr. Sanders.

Young voters’ support for Mr. Sanders has created a quandary in Hillary Clinton’s campaign headquarters in Brooklyn, where millennial staff members have tried to persuade their peers to back the former first lady, using social media platforms like Snapchat and Instagram. On Monday in Iowa, Mr. Sanders defeated Mrs. Clinton among voters ages 17 to 29 by 70 percentage points, greater than the 43-percentage-point margin Barack Obama won in the same age group in Iowa in 2008.

That is true among both men and women, and even Mrs. Clinton called the gap “amazing” during an appearance on CNN on Wednesday...

Look, eight years with a stealth socialist candidate who's been stymied in realizing the revolution, youth voters want to complete it with a candidate who loudly proclaims his collective agenda, and tries to sugar coat it by calling it " democratic socialism."

Heh, Bernie honeymooned in Soviet Russia. We're in for one snooker of ride.

Keep reading.

Donald Trump Accuses Ted Cruz of Stealing the Iowa Caucuses (VIDEO)

Today was vintage Trump.

At Politico, "Trump accuses Cruz of 'fraud,' calls for new Iowa election":

Donald Trump’s moment of humility didn’t last long. The billionaire businessman, still licking his wounds after a decisive loss in Iowa on Monday, is now crying foul, accusing Ted Cruz of stealing the election and calling for a do-over.

After congratulating Cruz during his concession speech on Monday night, Trump took to Twitter on Wednesday morning to make the case for why his loss was a crock.

"Ted Cruz didn't win Iowa, he illegally stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong any [sic] why he got more votes than anticipated. Bad!" Trump tweeted Wednesday morning. The tweet disappeared within minutes of posting and was replaced by another that no longer included the word “illegally.”

He followed up with an ultimatum: “Based on the fraud committed by Senator Ted Cruz during the Iowa Caucus, either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified,” he tweeted. Trump said later Wednesday that he'll likely sue. "I probably will; what he did is unthinkable," he said during an interview with Boston Herald Radio.

Trump, the master of reinvention, is trying to flip the script from loser to wronged winner, after the outcome of Iowa pierced the bubble of invincibility around the real estate mogul. Trump had sailed through the first eight months of his presidential run, defying critics who predicted that his incendiary statements would surely sink him. He went into Iowa with a roughly 5-point lead but failed to close the deal, losing to Cruz, 24 percent to 28 percent.

Temporarily bowed, a somber Trump accepted the defeat Monday night and vowed to win New Hampshire. "We finished second, and I want to tell you something, I'm just honored. I'm really honored. And I want to congratulate Ted, and I want to congratulate all of the incredible candidates,” Trump said during his concession speech, flanked by his wife, Melania...

Keep reading.

PREVIOUSLY: "Sarah Palin Slams the 'Lies of Ted Cruz's Campaign'."

Will the Real Progressive Please Stand Up?

I couldn't watch this stupid town hall forum. I went out to Nordstrom's to buy a couple of button-down shirts for work next week.

But see the Los Angeles Times, "Who's a real progressive? Sanders and Clinton make their cases at New Hampshire town hall."

And watch, if you're interested, via CNN, "Bernie Sanders said that Hillary Clinton can't be 'moderate' and 'progressive' in response to the criticism he has taken for questioning her 'progressive record'."

And Grandma responded during her segment, "'I'm a progressive who likes to get things done' - During the New Hampshire Democratic town hall, Hillary Clinton defended her progressive credentials against criticism from the Bernie Sanders campaign."

Keep in mind, there's a debate scheduled for tomorrow night as well, which I'll probably watch. And then the Republicans have a debate on Saturday night, which should be a riot.

Probably the coolest thing is that we've got the Super Bowl on Sunday to take our minds off all of the campaigning, heh.

Sarah Palin Slams the 'Lies of Ted Cruz's Campaign'

My sleep cycle is all messed up.

I stayed up early into the morning reading and blogging, as I always do, but then I had to get going at 7:00am to get my kid ready and take him to school. I feel back asleep after I came back home. I saw folks mocking today's Donald Trump Twitter tirade before I dozed off, and now waking back up I see the campaign's blown apart on all sides.

You gotta love it!

Here's the former GOP vice-presidential candidate, on Facebook, "Dirty Politics: Witnessing Firsthand It's Always Heartbreaking, Never Surprising" (via Memeorandum).

Marco Rubio Lands Cover Photo at Los Angeles Spanish-Language Newspaper La Opinión

El surgimiento del Senador Latino!

I just took the photo and didn't bother picking up the paper. But no doubt he's got the Spanish-language daily's endorsement.

I'm sure El Rushbo would approve, heh.

Bob Schieffer's Homespun Wisdom on the Odd Twists and Turns of Election 2016 (VIDEO)

He's been covering presidential elections since 1968, heh.

That's great CBS News lets him come back once and a while to entertain his with his folksy presidential campaign homilies.

Via CBS Evening News:

Former Senator Scott Brown Endorses Donald Trump at Rally in Milford, New Hampshire (VIDEO)

Not sure how valuable these endorsements are. Sarah Palin's endorsement in Iowa didn't seem to help Trump too much, although there's no discounting the earned media, so there's that.

At WMUR News 9 Manchester, "Scott Brown endorses Donald Trump at campaign event in Milford":

They held a joint press conference together, but almost all of the questions were about Iowa.

"Everybody wanted his endorsement and I'm very honored that he's giving it to me,” said Trump.

A lot of the national media tried to provoke Trump into being more expressive about what happened, but Trump did his best to just kind of brush off the loss.

From what he told the crowd, it was clear that the way this is being portrayed is getting under his skin.

"I think that we did very well. I did not expect to do so well. I guess what did happen is one poll came out that said I'm four or five points ahead and that maybe built up a false expectation for some people,” said Trump.

While he kept his cool with the media, Trump let a little New York slip into his vocabulary in his stump speech, swearing twice -- once talking about Russia...

Now, if Trump could get Brown's daughter Ayla out on the stump, I'm sure he'd pick up an even larger chunk of youth demographic, young male youth in particular, heh.

Latest New Hampshire Republican Poll Shows Donald Trump with 24-Point Lead Over Ted Cruz

The poll's out from UMass Lowell, "Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Trump Leads GOP, Cruz and Rubio."

It's interesting. Trump lost two percentage points to Cruz overnight following the Iowa caucuses, but still hold a huge double-digit lead. And as I reported earlier, he's back in vintage form along the campaign trail.

Here, "Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Trump Leads GOP, Cruz and Rubio":

Trump-38 Cruz-14 Rubio-10 Kasich-9 Bush-9 Christie-5... in Day 2 of our @UML_CPO @7News #FITN tracking poll https://t.co/8rcR1nQnty

— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 2, 2016

Donald Trump, at 38 percent support among likely voters, continues to lead all candidates in the Republican primary, but 44 percent of Republicans polled reported that they could still change their mind before Feb. 9. Voters who support Trump remain the most sure of their choice at 69 percent, but this is down from 72 percent in yesterday’s tracking poll results. Support for other GOP candidates is less firm with half or more of voters who favor candidates including Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Rand Paul saying they could change their minds.

The GOP field also saw some movement since yesterday, with Trump’s nearest rivals Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio each gaining two points among likely Republican primary voters polled. Cruz, who won yesterday’s Iowa caucus, is at 14 percent and Rubio is at 10 percent. John Kasich and Jeb Bush are tied at 9 percent, Chris Christie is at 5 percent, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina at 3 percent and Rand Paul at 2 percent. Mike Huckabee, who has suspended his campaign, had zero percent among voters polled...

From the poll highlights:

Trump is the frontrunner in a race without a clear challenger. Cruz takes 12% of the vote, while former governors John Kasich and Jeb Bush take 9% each, Senator Marco Rubio takes 8%, while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie gets the support of 7% of likely voters. No other candidate is above 3% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee did not receive support (zero) from any Republican likely voters surveyed. Trump’s voters are the most certain, with 72% saying that their votes are definite, while 28% say that they “could change their mind.” For candidates like Bush and Rubio, majorities (59% and 57%, respectively) say they could change their mind.

Trump’s support is strongest among men and those with lower levels of education. Those whose highest level of education is a high school diploma (and below) support Trump at 46%,compared to those with a post graduate degree who support Trump at only 18%. Interestingly, Trump’s support is consistent across income levels, between Independents and Republicans and between Moderates and Conservatives. In fact, the only demographic category in which another candidate is preferred to Trump is among those who we identified as being very religious (attend church at least once a week and view scriptures as without any flaws). The most religious voters apparently prefer Ted Cruz to Trump, albeit by a narrow and not statistically significant margin, 7% to 24%.

Also, "UMass Lowell/7News: Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters Release 1."

How Ted Cruz Engineered His Iowa Triumph

I meant to post this piece from Sasha Issenberg earlier.

He's so extremely good, at Bloomberg.

And buy his book, The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns.

Swagger, Curses, and Confidence: Donald Trump Returns to Form in New Hampshire (VIDEO)

Was there ever any doubt?

Following-up from earlier, "Donald Trump Lashes Out at Iowa Voters and Media."

At the Washington Post, "In a return to New Hampshire, Donald Trump returns to form":

Donald Trump seems to be back to his old self in New Hampshire tonight. He has the stage all to himself and has much more energy.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

On foreign policy issues, Donald Trump says: "Wouldn't you rather to have Trump as president?"

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Number of times tonight Donald Trump has promised to "beat the shit" out of Islamic State terrorists: Two.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Donald Trump accuses Ted Cruz's campaign of telling Iowa voters that Ben Carson was dropping out of the race -- which has yet to happen.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Donald Trump takes a break from talking about campaign spending to point at reporters, glare and say: "Dishonest people!"

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Donald Trump shout-out to Ann Coulter: "Where is our Ann? Where is our Ann? ... Stand up, Ann. Oh, she is standing up."

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

After a weekend of back-to-back rallies that were barely 40 minutes long each,Trump filled a full 55 minutes in New Hampshire tonight.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

MILFORD, N.H. — Donald Trump returned to New Hampshire on Tuesday night with the stakes as high as ever for his presidential campaign, determined to showcase his political resilience after his second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses and rouse his supporters with a rally that was a raucous return to form.

There was swagger, curses and confidence, and thousands of people packed into an athletic center, all bundled up in winter coats and many toting signs.

Speaking for more than 55 minutes, Trump revived the talking points that have defined his campaign: He slammed former Florida governor Jeb Bush. He promised to crack down on illegal immigration, build a wall on the border and bring back jobs from overseas. He criticized career politicians and accused them of selling their influence.

And the crowd roared when he cursed as he pledged to aggressively target Islamic State terrorists. "If we are attacked, somebody attacks us, wouldn't you rather have Trump as president if we're attacked?" he asked. "We'll beat the [expletive] out of them."

But first came a little reflection — and a few digs at the pundits who have described the Iowa victory by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) as a humbling and disappointing moment for the mogul...

More.

High Expectations as Campaigns Move Toward the New Hampshire Primaries (VIDEO

Judy Woodruff has an interesting segment with USA Today's Susan Page and Morning Consult's Reid Wilson.

Watch, "What candidates need to do going into the New Hampshire primaries."

Rush Limbaugh Defends Marco Rubio as Full-Throated Conservative and Ronald Reagan Disciple (AUDIO)

Via Hot Air, "Rush Limbaugh: Marco Rubio is a legitimate full-throated conservative and a disciple of Ronald Reagan."

And listen, "Rush Limbaugh: Marco Rubio "a legitimate full-throated conservative."

More at that Hot Air link above.

And earlier, "Marco Rubio in New Hampshire: 'We need to unify the conservative movement...' (VIDEO)."

Donald Trump Lashes Out at Iowa Voters and Media

He was completely magnanimous in yesterday's concession speech, but we're seeing a new tone today. Trump was off Twitter for much longer than usual, which I hope is a sign that he was getting some good, professional campaign advice.

He's moaning about how "self-funding" a campaign is extremely expensive, which it is, although most would argue that he went the cheapskate route in Iowa, at least in terms of voter mobilization. (I don't know if he ran much advertising over the local airwaves, but he's been hammered for skimping on data-driven ground mobilizing efforts from many quarters.)

In any case, NYT's got a burst of his tweets embedded here, "Donald Trump Lashes Out at Iowa Voters and Media."

Expect updates...

Marco Rubio in New Hampshire: 'We need to unify the conservative movement...' (VIDEO)

Well, I doubt he can "unify" the conservative movement, although he'll be able to rally the GOPe behind him.

From WMUR News 9 in Manchester, New Hampshire:

Marco Rubio Was Expected to Come in Third in Iowa: That's a Bronze No Matter How You Spin It; It Ain't Never Gonna Be a Gold (VIDEO)

From Amanda Carpenter, "The Real Story Coming Out of the Iowa Caucuses":

To listen to a number of folks in the media, Marco Rubio’s third place finish in Iowa is just as good as finishing first. But bronze, no matter how you polish and spin it, ain’t never gonna be gold.

Rubio was always expected to come in third, as evidenced by the fact that his own campaign was promoting their “3-2-1” strategy to the media only a few weeks ago. Meaning they hoped to place third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and first in South Carolina.

No matter. The real story isn’t the brainwashing prowess of Rubio’s communications team; the real story is that Cruz beat him with record turnout, something that was supposed to favor Donald Trump, and Rubio is nipping at Trump’s heels having finished one percent behind him.  And it’s worth repeating: Cruz won more Iowa votes than any other Republican in history. In history.

And this isn’t your daddy’s Iowa caucus, either...

Keep reading.