Thursday, January 21, 2016

Loras College Poll Has Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in Dead Heat, 25-24 Percent

I've never heard of the Loras poll, but the methodology looks pretty rigorous.

See, "TRUMP AND CRUZ DEADLOCKED, WITH RUBIO A DISTANT THIRD, LORAS COLLEGE POLL FINDS" (via Jennifer Jacobs):
With 11 days to go before the 2016 Iowa Caucuses, real estate mogul Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are deadlocked at the top of the latest Loras College Poll. The two candidates have distanced themselves from the rest of the field, with Florida Senator Marco Rubio the only other candidate receiving double-digit support among likely Republican caucus voters.  The statewide live-caller poll was conducted Jan. 13-18.  Trump and Cruz were also at the top of the December Loras Poll.

As the precinct caucuses approach on Feb. 1, the campaigning is reaching a fevered pitch.  “The Trump versus Cruz dynamic has defined the Republican race in the past couple of weeks.  We are certainly seeing that here in Iowa,” said Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D, associate professor of politics and director of the Loras College Poll.  “Iowa voters have surprised in the past, so it is always wise to watch for out for a last-minute push by someone from back in the field.  Senator Rubio is the one most within striking distance at the moment, and 10 days is something of an eternity in caucus politics.”

Iowa Governor Terry Branstad made headlines with his comment Wednesday that he “think[s] it would be a big mistake for Iowa to support him.” The governor focused on Cruz’s opposition to ethanol as a key reason for concern.

“Governor Branstad’s comments were noteworthy as a high profile intervention into the race, and that isn’t something you usually see.  It will be interesting find out how voters respond to this last minute pitch by the state’s influential and popular GOP governor,” Budzisz said...
More.

If these results are accurate, that means the campaign ground games are going to be decisive. I have no clue what'll happen, frankly. Again, Donald Trump's supposed to be mobilizing all kinds of new participants, so his campaign could blow traditional expectations out of the water.

We'll see. We'll see.

Jackie Johnson's Balmy Friday Forecast

I went out without a jacket today. It was probably 70 degrees and sunny, if not warmer.

Via CBS News 2 Los Angeles:



National Review Disinvited from GOP Debate in Houston for Publishing Editorial Hit Piece, 'Against Trump'

It was bound to happen, I guess.

From Jack Fowler, "Houston, We Have a Problem."



PREVIOUSLY: "National Review's February 15th Issue Goes Nuclear 'Against Trump' as Republican Presidential Nominee!," and "Here's National Review's 'Against Trump' Editorial."

Also, "Here's Rich Lowry on 'The Kelly File' Talking Up National Review's 'Against Trump' Editorial (VIDEO)."

Here's Rich Lowry on 'The Kelly File' Talking Up National Review's 'Against Trump' Editorial (VIDEO)

Following-up, "National Review's February 15th Issue Goes Nuclear 'Against Trump' as Republican Presidential Nominee!," and "Here's National Review's 'Against Trump' Editorial."

I've been blogging like crazy, but Fox News talking heads have been droning on in the background, heh.

Here's Megyn Kelly's lead segment, with Rich Lowry:



Here's National Review's 'Against Trump' Editorial

It wasn't up when I posted a little while ago, "National Review's February 15th Issue Goes Nuclear 'Against Trump' as Republican Presidential Nominee!"

But it's up now, "Trump is a philosophically unmoored political opportunist":

 photo 05646e55-adba-4fdb-ac49-bcad15288087_250_330_zpskto1aaeo.jpg
Donald Trump leads the polls nationally and in most states in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. There are understandable reasons for his eminence, and he has shown impressive gut-level skill as a campaigner. But he is not deserving of conservative support in the caucuses and primaries. Trump is a philosophically unmoored political opportunist who would trash the broad conservative ideological consensus within the GOP in favor of a free-floating populism with strong-man overtones.

Trump’s political opinions have wobbled all over the lot. The real-estate mogul and reality-TV star has supported abortion, gun control, single-payer health care à la Canada, and punitive taxes on the wealthy. (He and Bernie Sanders have shared more than funky outer-borough accents.) Since declaring his candidacy he has taken a more conservative line, yet there are great gaping holes in it.

 His signature issue is concern over immigration — from Latin America but also, after Paris and San Bernardino, from the Middle East. He has exploited the yawning gap between elite opinion in both parties and the public on the issue, and feasted on the discontent over a government that can’t be bothered to enforce its own laws no matter how many times it says it will (President Obama has dispensed even with the pretense). But even on immigration, Trump often makes no sense and can’t be relied upon. A few short years ago, he was criticizing Mitt Romney for having the temerity to propose “self-deportation,” or the entirely reasonable policy of reducing the illegal population through attrition while enforcing the nation’s laws. Now, Trump is a hawk’s hawk.

He pledges to build a wall along the southern border and to make Mexico pay for it. We need more fencing at the border, but the promise to make Mexico pay for it is silly bluster. Trump says he will put a big door in his beautiful wall, an implicit endorsement of the dismayingly conventional view that current levels of legal immigration are fine. Trump seems unaware that a major contribution of his own written immigration plan is to question the economic impact of legal immigration and to call for reform of the H-1B–visa program. Indeed, in one Republican debate he clearly had no idea what’s in that plan and advocated increased legal immigration, which is completely at odds with it. These are not the meanderings of someone with well-informed, deeply held views on the topic.

As for illegal immigration, Trump pledges to deport the 11 million illegals here in the United States, a herculean administrative and logistical task beyond the capacity of the federal government. Trump piles on the absurdity by saying he would re-import many of the illegal immigrants once they had been deported, which makes his policy a poorly disguised amnesty (and a version of a similarly idiotic idea that appeared in one of Washington’s periodic “comprehensive immigration” reforms). This plan wouldn’t survive its first contact with reality.

On foreign policy, Trump is a nationalist at sea. Sometimes he wants to let Russia fight ISIS, and at others he wants to “bomb the sh**” out of it. He is fixated on stealing Iraq’s oil and casually suggested a few weeks ago a war crime — killing terrorists’ families — as a tactic in the war on terror. For someone who wants to project strength, he has an astonishing weakness for flattery, falling for Vladimir Putin after a few coquettish bats of the eyelashes from the Russian thug. All in all, Trump knows approximately as much about national security as he does about the nuclear triad — which is to say, almost nothing.

Indeed, Trump’s politics are those of an averagely well-informed businessman: Washington is full of problems; I am a problem-solver; let me at them. But if you have no familiarity with the relevant details and the levers of power, and no clear principles to guide you, you will, like most tenderfeet, get rolled...
Keep reading.

Notice that stompy-feet tone to the editors' screed. They're not wrong so much as pissing in the wind. Folks like Trump because they believe he'll fight for their values. They don't care if he can articulate them perfectly well. He's hits the bullseye when he stands up for the working-class downtrodden, to say nothing of the Great White Nationalists. Yep, I said it. You can't understand his success unless you see Trump's rise as a revolt against the politically correct, pro-diversity establishmentarians of both parties. Trump's especially got the GOPe running scared.

It's all mixed up right now, but things are going to shake out real soon. Ted Cruz has alienated a lot of people on Capital Hill, and elsewhere, and major figures in the party are saying they'd rather have the Manhattan real estate mogul. I'm just getting a kick out of this from an analytical perspective. What a blast this primary's been so far. I can't wait until the Iowa caucuses, heh.

And see Politico, via Memeorandum, "National Review aims to take down Trump."

Still more, at Gateway Pundit.

GOP Senators Warn of Revolt If Ted Cruz Wins Party's Presidential Nomination (VIDEO)

Following-up, "National Review's February 15th Issue Goes Nuclear 'Against Trump' as Republican Presidential Nominee!"

The Old Gray Lady's story spoke of the most significant split in the Republican Party since Barry Goldwater's campaign in 1964. But when folks start mentioning Donald Trump and the John Birch Society in the same breath, you know they're stretching things.

Here's this, from CNN, "The Ted Cruz pile on: GOP senators warn of revolt should he win nomination."

I couldn't find a YouTube clip or I would've embedded it. But there's a nice CNN video at that link.

More at Memeorandum.

National Review's February 15th Issue Goes Nuclear 'Against Trump' as Republican Presidential Nominee!

Newsmax has the lineup of conservatives featured in the forthcoming National Review issue slamming Donald Trump. See, "National Review Urges 'Say No' to Trump."

And the story's at the New York Times, "Donald Trump or Ted Cruz? Republicans Argue Over Who Is Greater Threat":

WASHINGTON — With Donald J. Trump and Senator Ted Cruz battling for the Republican nomination, two powerful factions of their party are now clashing over the question: Which man is more dangerous?

Conservative intellectuals have become convinced that Mr. Trump, with his message of nationalist-infused populism, poses a dire threat to conservatism, and planned to issue a manifesto online Thursday night to try to stop him.

However, the cadre of Republican lobbyists, operatives and elected officials based in Washington is much more unnerved by Mr. Cruz, a go-it-alone, hard-right crusader who campaigns against the political establishment and could curtail their influence and access, building his own Republican machine to essentially replace them.

The division illuminates much about modern Republicanism and the surprising bedfellows brought about when an emerging political force begins to imperil entrenched power.

The Republicans who dominate the right-leaning magazines, journals and political groups can live with Mr. Cruz, believing that his nomination would leave the party divided, but manageably so, extending a longstanding intramural debate over pragmatism versus purity that has been waged since the days of Barry Goldwater and Nelson Rockefeller. They say Mr. Trump, on the other hand, poses the most serious peril to the conservative movement since the 1950s-era far-right John Birch Society.

Rich Lowry, the editor of National Review — embracing the role of his predecessor, William F. Buckley, who in the 1960s confronted Birch Society members — reached out to conservative thinkers to lend their names to the manifesto against Mr. Trump. He drew on some of the country’s leading conservatives, including Erick Erickson, William Kristol and Yuval Levin, to write essays buttressing the argument that Mr. Trump had no commitment to restraining the role of government and possessed authoritarian impulses antithetical to conservative principles.

“Donald Trump is a menace to American conservatism who would take the work of generations and trample it underfoot on behalf of a populism as heedless and crude as The Donald himself,” the magazine said in an editorial accompanying the manifesto.

Peter Wehner, a longtime conservative writer, said: “He’s not a conservative, he’s an angry populist. It would be dangerous if the party or movement hands control over to him.”

Yet many members of the Republican influence apparatus, especially lobbyists and political strategists, say they could work with Mr. Trump as the party’s standard-bearer, believing that he would be open to listening to them and cutting deals, and would not try to take over the party.

“He’s got the right personality and he’s kind of a deal-maker,” said Robert J. Dole, the former Republican senator and 1996 presidential candidate.

Of course, this willingness to accommodate Mr. Trump is driven in part by the fact that few among the Republican professional class believe he would win a general election. In their minds, it would be better to effectively rent the party to Mr. Trump for four months this fall, through the general election, than risk turning it over to Mr. Cruz for at least four years, as either the president or the next-in-line leader for the 2020 nomination...
Well, Rich Lowry has a piece up at Politico today, making the distinction between populism and conservatism, of which Donald Trump is the former (not the latter). See, "The Battle for the Soul of the Right."

And at Memeorandum.

Joy Corrigan Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Casting Call (VIDEO)

The swimsuit issue countdown continues.

Here's Joy Corrigan, via Sports Illustrated:



Blizzard Watch: Monster Winter Storm Heads for Washington, D.C., Area (VIDEO)

Here's USA Today, "Major winter storm forecast to slam East Coast."

And at ABC News, "East Coast Braces for Massive Winter Storm."

Just ten years ago scientists were predicting the end of winter whiteout storms on the East Coast. But now this weekend we're expected a storm-of-the-century style blizzard.

Oh boy, it's just a barrel of monkeys with our leftist betters, lol.



Donna Brazile, Far-Left Democrat Hack, Attacks Sarah Palin as 'Liar' for Linking Son's Arrest to President Obama (VIDEO)

Ooooh! This is getting juicy.

Once you bring Palin into the mix it's almost like we're back in 2008!

Following-up from yesterday, "Sarah Palin Blames PTSD and Barack Obama for Son Track's Domestic Violence Arrest (VIDEO)."

And watch, at CNN, "Brazile: Palin a "liar" for linking Obama to her son's domestic violence arrest..."

Now, if we could just get Andrew Sullivan to reprise some Trig-trutherism we'll be really cooking baby!

Israel to Seize EU-Funded Land Projects, Demolishes Structures (VIDEO)

At Reuters, "Israel says will seize West Bank land; demolishes EU structures."

More at the Times of Israel, "Israel to announce major land appropriation in Jordan Valley."

And at the Los Angeles Times, "Israel plan could lead to more Jewish settlements in occupied West Bank":

In a move that could lead to construction of more Jewish settlements, Israel plans to annex 370 acres of agricultural land in the occupied West Bank near the city of Jericho.

The land has been under Israeli control since the Six Day War of 1967 and was already being farmed by members of the neighboring Etzion settlements, which are widely considered to be illegal under international law.

Formal annexation would continue a pattern of Israeli expansion that has been condemned by the U.S. and other world powers because it dampens the prospects for creation of a Palestinian state, which they view as the best hope for a lasting peace.

Israeli Army Radio quoted a defense ministry report describing the plan as “a very sensitive issue which will likely garner harsh critique from Europe and the United States, and of course from the Palestinian Authority.”

The Cabinet is expected to quickly approve the plan, which was authorized in a declaration signed Wednesday morning by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, the radio station reported.

The defense ministry and the prime minister’s office declined to comment. But the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories — the Israeli military body that oversees the occupied West Bank — confirmed the plan.

It would be the largest annexation since August 2014, when Israel incorporated nearly 1,000 acres in the West Bank in response to the nearby kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers months earlier.

Palestinian leaders quickly condemned the new plan...
I'm sure they did.

More.

Anti-Tobacco Coalition Launches Signature Petition Drive for Increased Cigarette Taxes (VIDEO)

I hate new taxes. But I especially hate them when they're imposed through the initiative process by far left-wing nut jobs --- like billionaire enviro-wacko Tom Steyer!

I don't smoke. But it's high time to leave smokers alone.

At the Sacramento Bee, "Coalition launches petition to take tobacco tax to November ballot":

Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer and Democratic Sen. Richard Pan spoke about the evils of cigarettes and vaporizers Tuesday at C.K. McClatchy High School as they joined a coalition of medical and labor groups to launch a petition for a ballot measure that would levy a $2 tax on tobacco sales.

“My mother smoked three packs a day of non-filtered cigarettes and died of lung cancer, so I have a personal interest in preventing smoking and preventing young people from starting smoking,” Steyer said to a room of teenagers. Steyer is a former hedge-fund manager turned advocate for legislation to fight climate change.

The ballot measure calls for the state to largely funnel the revenue from a tobacco tax to Medi-Cal, with some money set aside for anti-smoking programs and research on tobacco-related illnesses and diseases. The tax would apply to cigarettes, e-cigarettes and any other products containing or derived from tobacco or nicotine.

Pan, a practicing pediatrician from Sacramento, warned students that despite misconceptions, e-cigarettes are also addictive and contain nicotine...
Still more.

Let Alessandra Ambrosio Take You Behind the Scenes of GQ’s Body Issue Cover Shoot (VIDEO)

Following-up from the other day, "Alessandra Ambrosio and Cristiano Ronaldo for GQ."

Here's the video:



Woman in High-Speed Chase on 710 Freeway Was Banned from Having Animals (VIDEO)

What a story.

Here's the news from a couple of days ago, at LAT, "6 dogs loose on freeway after police pursuit captured."

And here's the update from this morning, "Woman with dogs that ran on freeway after pursuit was banned from having animals, prosecutors say":

[Tiffini Kuuipo ] Tobe had parked her Mercedes-Benz on the shoulder of the 91 Freeway near Buena Park and had fallen asleep when California Highway Patrol officers spotted her car about 8:15 p.m. Monday and attempted to wake her, prosecutors said.

The CHP officers issued orders asking her to get out of the car but she refused. She drove off, leading authorities on a chase that turned onto the 710 Freeway and reached speeds of up to 90 mph, prosecutors said.

At the end of the chase, Tobe opened a car door and six pit bulls hopped out, wagging their tails as they approached a throng of CHP officers.

NEWSLETTER: Get essential California headlines delivered daily >>

A warrant had been issued Friday for Tobe’s arrest after she failed to appear for a court hearing in an animal abuse case, prosecutors said.

In June she was charged with a misdemeanor count of keeping an animal without proper care after a person saw one of her pit bulls with an exposed bone. The dog had chewed off his own leg, prosecutors said.

Investigators later realized the dog’s foot had been missing for several months and because he had several untreatable lesions, veterinarians were forced to euthanize the dog...

Drunk 21-Year-Old Woman Dies of Exposure After Leaving Party in Milwaukee with Temperatures at -6°F (VIDEO)

Folks were making jokes about this woman on Twitter, but I can't laugh. It's just not funny.

She had on just shorts and a tank top. She didn't even make it four blocks before falling into the snow, freezing to death. It was -27°F with the wind chill factor.

She was just 21 and apparently had drinking problems.

Watch, at WISN News 12, "Woman, 21, found frozen outside home identified: Elizabeth Luebke, of Oshkosh, was in subzero temperatures for hours."

Vox's History of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict is Complete Garbage

Well, anything featuring far-left nutjob Max Fisher is complete garbage, so what can you do, heh?

From David Harsanyi, at the Federalist":
Vox, the Internet’s most popular anti-Israel site, has produced an easily digestible ten-minute history of the entire Arab-Jewish conflict for progressives who find Wikipedia too intellectually demanding. (Fingers crossed for the seven-minute video explaining The Reformation.)
Keep reading.

I'm not linking to Vox.

But here's Max on Twitter if you want to troll around, lol.

Two Men Among First to Be Charged Under L.A.'s New Law Restricting Drones (VIDEO)

I hate the overreaching arm of the state (or the municipality, in this case), but considering last year's El Cajon fire, you gotta do something. (See, "Drones Disrupt Aerial Firefight Drops Over Cajon Pass North Fire (VIDEO).")

Watch, at CBS News 2 Los Angeles, "2 Men Among First to Be Charged Under LA's New Ordinance Restricting Drone Operations."

Travel Back in Time with Miss July 2003 Marketa Janska (VIDEO)

Way back, heh.

Watch, at Playboy, "Get a Taste of Miss July 2003, Marketa Janska."

Also, "Marketa Janska at the Playboy Blog: Playmate July 2003."

Iranian-Backed Militia Suspected in Kidnapping of 3 Americans in Iraq (VIDEO)

I tweeted that the hostages were probably already in Tehran when this story first broke. The mullahs can act with impunity in the face of the craven Obama administration.

Watch, here's Bill Hemmer, on America's Newsroom.

PREVIOUSLY: "U.S. Pays Steep Ranson for Four Innocent Hostages Held Captive by Iran."

Whopper: EPA Chief Gina McCarthy Says '99% of scientists agree climate change is happening...'

We're ruled by idiots, and the masses are just sheep to the slaughter.

At Twitchy, "Fact check, please: EPA chief @GinaEPA says ‘99% of scientists agree climate change is happening’."

I'm Halfway Through Orlando Figes', A People's Tragedy

My reading volume has dropped significantly this last week or so. I've been blogging a lot, especially the primaries. There's been tons of great news.

In any case, Figes' book is over 800 pages and I'm halfway through. Maybe I'll finish before school starts on February 8th, but I'm not making any promises, heh.

At Amazon, A People's Tragedy: The Russian Revolution: 1891-1924.

Also, LSTN Satellite Zebra Wood Portable Bluetooth Speaker with Built-in Microphone.

More, Shop Amazon - New Year New You.

Dutch Model Lara Stone Puts On Eye-Popping Display in Wet T-Shirt for Vogue Shoot at Bondi Beach, Australia

At London's Daily Mail, "Lara Stone puts on an eye-popping display as she goes braless in a see-through wet T-shirt for steamy Vogue shoot with hunky male model."

Connecticut High School Student Says Pledge of Allegiance to Islamic State, Gets Pulled from School

Well, was the kid Muslim?

Then, yeah, sounds justified to me. These fuckers will kill ya.

At London's Daily Mail:


We Just Might Get That Trump-Sanders Race

I think so.

From Glenn Reynolds, at USA Today:
Back last summer, I wrote about the prospects for a Trump-Sanders 2016 race. At the time, I thought I was just being cute. Now it looks as if it might happen.

Trump, of course, remains atop all of the polls for the GOP nomination. And now Bernie Sanders is crushing Hillary Clinton in CNN/WMUR's latest New Hampshire poll, 60% to 33%. That’s right, Bernie has a 27-point lead among New Hampshire Democrats.

There’s no question that Hillary is in real trouble. As Peter Wehner noted in Commentary, “Mrs. Clinton is now running as basically the third term of President Obama. She may tweak what he did here and there, but she is fully embracing Mr. Obama. In an election year in which anger and disgust at the political establishment and business as usual are dominant, and in which only a quarter of the American people believe the country is headed in the right direction, that is a dangerous strategy to adopt. In addition, there’s a historical burden Mrs. Clinton faces: Since 1948, a political party has won three straight presidential elections only once, when George H.W. Bush succeeded Ronald Reagan, who was much more popular at the end of his second term than, in all likelihood, Mr. Obama will be.”

With the Middle East on fire and the U.S. economy looking shaky, the “Obama’s third term” strategy isn’t looking very good. But Hillary was part of his administration, so what else can she do?

She also faces increasing legal problems. In particular, as the email story trickles out, it’s now clear that she had beyond top secret material on her secret personal email server. As Politico reports: “In a copy of the Jan. 14 correspondence obtained by Politico, Intelligence Community Inspector General I. Charles McCullough III told both the Senate Intelligence and Senate Foreign Relations committees that intelligence agencies found messages relating to what are known as 'special access programs,' or SAP. That’s an even more restricted subcategory of sensitive compartmented information, or SCI, which is top secret national security information derived from sensitive intelligence sources.”

As intelligence experts like to point out, normal federal employees would face career-ending consequences, if not prison, for this sort of mishandling of classified information, which made it easy for foreign nations to learn extremely important secrets about U.S. intelligence — and U.S. methods of gathering intelligence.  In Charles Krauthammer's view, what Hillary did is worse than what Edward Snowden did: “What people have to understand is that there is nothing higher, more secret than an SAP. And that, from some people I’ve talked to, this is worse than what Snowden did, because he didn’t have access to SAP. And that, if this is compromised, this is so sensitive, that the reason — and the reason it is is that, as a result, if it’s compromised, people die. It also means that operations that have been embedded for years and years get destroyed and cannot be reconstituted.”
Still more.

Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences Seeks New Rules on Awards Diversity (VIDEO)

Look, leftists love affirmative action quotas.

If that's their stand for college admissions, it should be no different for movie awards. A fixed share of the nominations should go to minorities. Of course, then the question becomes what if minorities don't win? Naturally, then, you'll have to have quotas for the actually winners as well.

That's the leftist way to do it. Either that, or tell the leftist quota industry to got to hell. (And that ain't gonna happen.)

At LAT, "Academy board will weigh new voting rules to encourage diversity":

For the last three years, the awards body has been in the midst of a push for more diversity, inviting larger and demographically broader groups to join its 6,261 voting members, and in November, Boone Isaacs announced a new imitative, called A2020, intended to diversify the staff of the organization. But given the size of the academy, and the fact that members belong for life, any change to the organization's overall demographics has been incremental...
More.

Donald Trump's Increasing Prospects Stir Fears Within the Republican Party (VIDEO)

I love this.

The GOPe needs to be stirred out of its stupor.

At WSJ, "Republican Party Grapples With Prospect of a Trump Victory":

When it comes to Donald Trump, two strands of thought appear to be strengthening simultaneously in different camps of the Republican Party: He can’t possibly end up as the presidential nominee, and it looks increasingly likely that he may do just that.

On the first front, a series of prominent GOP pundits and strategists in recent days have issued barbed denunciations of the real-estate mogul. Mr. Trump as nominee “would pose a profound threat to the Republican Party,” wrote Peter Wehner, a former adviser to President George W. Bush. A Trump win, said former Bush speech writer Michael Gerson, would mark “a massive ideological and moral revision” of the GOP. Mark Salter, a longtime campaign adviser to Sen. John McCain, hit a more profane note, calling Mr. Trump “a mean-spirited, lying jerk.”

At the same time, if you trust the polls, Mr. Trump is gaining strength in the early states, and lags behind only in Iowa, where voters are set to kick things off in all of 11 days. Since 2000, among GOP candidates, the size and durability of Mr. Trump’s lead in national polls has been topped only by George W. Bush, who went into the Iowa caucuses with the support, on average, of around 60% of likely GOP voters. Mr. Trump now stands at around 35%, according to the Real Clear Politics running tally. His nearest rival, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, comes in at 19%.

Mr. Trump has his vulnerabilities. A solid third of Republicans say they can’t see themselves supporting him as the nominee, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. (Then again, that is the lowest number of the cycle, and down from 74% last March.) In head-to-head races, according to the same poll, he would lose to Mr. Cruz in the primaries and to both Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders in the general election. In a hypothetical matchup against Mrs. Clinton, just 19% of nonwhite voters support him.

On the other hand, Mr. Trump has shown remarkable staying power, and appears to be assembling a disparate block of supporters that could portend surprises in many states. He continues to draw huge crowds in unlikely places, like Lowell, Mass., this month. In WSJ polling, his support among primary voters is similar to what then-Sen. Barack Obama had at this point in 2008, and stronger than Sen. John McCain that year or Mitt Romney four years later.

Just as importantly, both Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz—as well as Mr. Sanders on the Democratic side—are showing signs they may expand the electorate in meaningful ways...
Frankly, I expect Trump to win the nomination. I'm more certain of it now than I was back in September and October. He's never lost his position as the GOP front-runner, and it's now quite possible he could win in the Hawkeye State. That would be a huge blow to Ted Cruz, who doesn't have a real firewall coming out of Iowa. Trump could go on to win New Hampshire and South Carolina, forcing some of the other candidates from the race. I don't expect a contested convention and never have.

It's less than two weeks until it all starts to unfold. And it's less than a year now until the next president is sworn in. God, I can't wait.

Keep reading.

(And while Florida doesn't voted until March 15th, Trump's got a huge 47 percent lead in the Sunshine State. The poll could be an outlier, but still. See Hot Air, "Florida poll: Trump 48, Cruz 16, Rubio 11, Bush 10; Update: Trump up 20 in new NH poll.")

How Sarah Palin Helps Donald Trump (VIDEO)

A great piece, from Byron York, at the Washington Examiner, "Byron York: What Palin does for Trump, and to Cruz":

Even though she is much diminished from her heyday a few years ago, Palin still has influence among some conservatives. Trump now has that on his side, and just as important, Cruz doesn't....

At the [Oklahoma] rally I talked with Jamie Johnson, a veteran Iowa politico who supported Rick Santorum in 2012 and Rick Perry earlier in this race, but is now unaffiliated. Johnson saw the Palin move entirely in terms of persuading voters at the margins of the Trump vs. Cruz contest.

"I think the Palin endorsement is important for all of the Tea Partiers who were deciding which of the two they were going to vote for," Johnson said.

Does Palin still have clout in Iowa?

"To Tea Partiers, she does."

"How big a part of the electorate is that?"

"Probably 15 to 20 percent of the people who caucus. I'd say 15 to 20 percent would identify themselves as Tea Partiers more than anything else, such as born-again evangelicals."

"And you would expect that some of them are caught on the fence now between Trump and Cruz?"

"I know for a fact that they are," Johnson replied. "I've talked to several people in the last two months who have been on the fence between Trump and Cruz. So if they're on the fence, this might be just enough to push them over."

Indeed, at Trump and Cruz events in the last two weeks, I have met plenty of people who were for Trump, with Cruz as their second choice, or were for Cruz, with Trump as their second choice. For some of them, Palin's seal of approval might make some difference. Before she spoke, I asked several people at the Ames rally whether Palin had worn out her welcome; none thought she had.

"It's a valuable endorsement because people still view her as an anti-establishment outsider who they can also relate to," said Craig Robinson, a former Iowa state GOP political director who founded the Iowa Republican blog. "And if there is any strategy to the Trump campaign, it is to dominate the media coverage of the race, and Palin's endorsement will certainly help with that."

That's an understatement. Palin's appearance with Trump immediately captured nearly all the media's attention. In coming days, it will inspire impassioned debate, make talking heads explode, and cause fevered speculation across cable TV...
Exactly.

Trump's a freakin' master of media manipulation. He keeps sucking up all the oxygen, and the Palin endorsement really is a masterstroke for the age. I love it. Like I said earlier, the Cruz campaign was probably hating it, and it turns out they were. They were freakin' fuming that the Texas senator didn't get the former Alaska governor's support.

Still more.

Ted Cruz's Terrible Tuesday

As I was saying yesterday, it's been a tough week for Ted Cruz.

At Time:
The day began with a harsh swipe from the king of Iowa’s political establishment. It ended with a Tea Party queen crowning his top rival in the Hawkeye State.

Ted Cruz hasn’t suffered too many setbacks lately. But Tuesday was a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad day for a candidate hoping to ride a caucus win on Feb. 1 to the Republican presidential nomination...
RTWT.

And ICYMI, "Bob Dole, World War II Veteran, Former U.S. Senator, and 1996 GOP Presidential Nominee, Warns of 'Cataclysmic' Losses with Ted Cruz."

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Jackie Johnson's Thursday Forecast

It rained a little early this morning, otherwise is was a nice day. I wasn't out much, actually. Just hanging around, catching up on some sleep, watching the news, and blogging.

Here's Jackie, at CBS News 2 Los Angeles:



Sarah Palin Blames PTSD and Barack Obama for Son Track's Domestic Violence Arrest (VIDEO)

At London's Daily Mail, "Sarah Palin blames son Track's domestic assault arrest on PTSD and Obama's 'disrespectful' treatment of veterans."


Donald Trump More Than Doubles Ted Cruz in New Hampshire, Latest CNN/WMUR Poll Finds (VIDEO)

Trump leads Cruz by more than 20 points in the Granite State, 34-to-14 percent.

At CNN, "CNN/WMUR Poll: Trump leads, Cruz climbs in New Hampshire."



There's a CNN video at that link above.

Bob Dole, World War II Veteran, Former U.S. Senator, and 1996 GOP Presidential Nominee, Warns of 'Cataclysmic' Losses with Ted Cruz

Dole says Donald Trump would do better.

Needless to say, it's been a rough week so far for Senator Cruz.

At the New York Times, "Bob Dole Warns of 'Cataclysmic' Losses With Ted Cruz, and Says Donald Trump Would Do Better":
Bob Dole, the former Kansas senator and 1996 Republican presidential nominee, has never been fond of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. But in an interview Wednesday, Mr. Dole said that the party would suffer “cataclysmic” and “wholesale losses” if Mr. Cruz were the nominee, and that Donald J. Trump would fare better.

“I question his allegiance to the party,” Mr. Dole said of Mr. Cruz. “I don’t know how often you’ve heard him say the word ‘Republican’ — not very often.” Instead, Mr. Cruz uses the word “conservative,” Mr. Dole said, before offering up a different word for Mr. Cruz: “extremist.”

“I don’t know how he’s going to deal with Congress,” he said. “Nobody likes him.”

But Mr. Dole, 92, said he thought Mr. Trump could “probably work with Congress, because he’s, you know, he’s got the right personality and he’s kind of a deal-maker.”

The remarks by Mr. Dole reflect wider unease with Mr. Cruz among members of the Republican establishment, but few leading members of the party have been as candid and cutting.

“If he’s the nominee, we’re going to have wholesale losses in Congress and state offices and governors and legislatures,” said Mr. Dole, who served in the House and Senate for 35 years and won the Iowa caucuses twice. He described Mr. Cruz as having falsely “convinced the Iowa voters that he’s kind of a mainstream conservative.”

The only person who could stop Mr. Cruz from capturing the nomination? “I think it’s Trump,” Mr. Dole said, adding that Mr. Trump was “gaining a little.”

He said he had met Mr. Trump only once, 30 years ago. “But he has toned down his rhetoric,” he added. As for Mr. Cruz, he said: “There’ll be wholesale losses if he’s the nominee. Our party is not that far right.”

Mr. Dole repeatedly said he was strongly supporting Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida, although he acknowledged that Mr. Bush has had trouble gaining traction...
Dole's about as establishment as you can get. It's a sign, among others, that the GOPe is coalescing around the Donald.

More at Memerorandum.

Jamie Foxx Saves Man from Burning Truck (VIDEO)

Hey, credit where credit's due.

He did a good thing, and the man's father is forever grateful.

At the Los Angeles Times, "Jamie Foxx on rescuing man from burning truck: 'You just had to do something."

And watch, at CBS News 2 Los Angeles, "Jamie Foxx Saves Driver From Burning Truck Outside His Home."

Demi Lovato for Allure

Here, "See Demi Lovato's February 2016 Allure Cover Shoot."

And watch, "Demi Lovato's February 2016 Allure Cover Shoot."

On Twitter as well.

Kelly Brook Posts Photos of Herself Dressed Up as Wonder Woman to Instagram

She makes a pretty good Wonder Woman.

More at the Mirror UK, "Kelly Brook displays incredible cleavage as she dresses up as Wonder Woman."

BONUS: At Celebslam, "It's Kelly Brook's 2016 Calendar."

Donald Trump Supporters React to Sarah Palin's Endorsement (VIDEO)

Watch, at NBC Nightly News.

If anything, Palin's endorsement is yet again a media masterstroke for Donald Trump. He can't not get himself on the nightly news and he can't not dominate the 24-hour cable channels.

And supporters are really enthusiastic at that clip.

San Diego Chargers Should Stay in San Diego

Argues Bill Plaschke, at the Los Angeles Times, "The San Diego Chargers should stay right where they are":

The Rams haven't even been here a week, and already they are risking a penalty for too many men on the field.

The Chargers need to get out of the their huddle, and stay out.

The Chargers need to remain in San Diego where they belong. The Chargers need to forget sharing Los Angeles with the Rams, because they can't.

To welcome the Chargers back to Los Angeles as a second NFL team would be to ignore climate, dismiss history, and ultimately be doomed by both.

First, the climate. There is none. This isn't a Chargers town. This has never been a Chargers town. The Chargers had 21 years to woo us as an uncontested suitor and still couldn't make it a Chargers town.

Do you know one Chargers fan who lives within 60 miles of the proposed Inglewood stadium? In two decades, have you known one fan from L.A. County who drove to San Diego on a Sunday morning to watch a game who was not rooting for the opposing team?

The Chargers will cite statistical evidence that 25% of their fans come from Los Angeles, Orange County and the Inland Empire. I've never met one.

There are Chargers fans on the southern and eastern outskirts of San Diego County, but the longtime NFL heartbeat in this town beats through the Rams, and the crazy passion comes from a love for the Raiders. There are more Raiders fans here than Chargers fans, and it isn't even close.

Second, the history. The Chargers have tried to share a stadium with the Rams before. It lasted a year. And the Chargers couldn't wait to leave.

In 1960, the Chargers were part of the fledgling American Football League and played in the Coliseum, and nobody knew they were here.

The Rams averaged more than 70,000 fans, the Chargers would barely draw 10,000. Even for their L.A. debut, the Chargers drew just 17,724, and many of those "fans" were employees of team owner and hotel magnate Barron Hilton...
More.

Also, watch, at ABC News 10 San Diego, "Fans launch 'love letters' campaign to save Chargers."

Desperate Hillary Clinton Campaign to Attack Bernie Sanders as 'Fringe' Socialist Candidate (VIDEO)

Hillary's campaign's crashing, and desperate attacks on Sanders' socialism are going to backfire.

His socialism's exactly why he's surging, especially among young people. I mean, shoot, he's up around 80 percent among Millennials in that CNN/WMUR poll out yesterday.

Sanders has the mojo. Hillary, not so much.

At NYT, "Alarmed Clinton Supporters Begin Focusing on Sanders’s Socialist Edge":


Democrats backing Hillary Clinton, nervously eyeing Senator Bernie Sanders’s growing strength in the early nominating states, are turning to a new strategy to raise doubts about his candidacy, highlighting his socialist beliefs to warn that he would be an electoral disaster who would frighten swing voters and send Democrats in tight congressional and governor’s races to defeat.

It is a scenario many Democrats long dismissed as even remotely plausible: the 74-year-old Mr. Sanders, a registered independent who self-identifies as a democratic socialist, as their nominee. But the possibility of his defeating Mrs. Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire next month has prompted some of her prominent supporters to discuss how they could attack Mr. Sanders if his candidacy began to look less like a threat and more like a runaway train: calling him unelectable and warning Republicans would have a field day if he were the Democratic nominee.

“Here in the heartland, we like our politicians in the mainstream, and he is not — he’s a socialist,” said Gov. Jay Nixon of Missouri, who is term-limited and working to elect a Democratic successor. “He’s entitled to his positions, and it’s a big-tent party, but as far as having him at the top of the ticket, it would be a meltdown all the way down the ballot.”

And after months of ignoring Republican cheerleading for Mr. Sanders, Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has started aggressively highlighting how much the opposition is openly providing him aid and comfort — mostly recently in a new ad by Karl Rove’s group American Crossroads that echoes Mr. Sanders’s attacks on Mrs. Clinton’s ties to Wall Street.

“Republicans and their ‘super PACs‘ have made clear the candidate they’re actually afraid to face,” said Jennifer Palmieri, Mrs. Clinton’s communications director.

Mr. Sanders, for his part, has taken to highlighting polls that show him faring better than Mrs. Clinton against some of the Republican candidates, and his aides insist that voters will look past labels to consider his record, ideas and proposals.

Yet Mrs. Clinton herself has begun urging activists in Iowa to consider “electability and how we make sure we have a Democrat going back into that White House on Jan. 20, 2017.” And her supporters, with the campaign’s blessing, are aggressively moving to sow doubts about Mr. Sanders’s viability, a tactic aimed at alarming primary voters concerned about retaining the presidency and regaining the Senate.

For all the authorized fear-mongering, though, it is clear that few Democrats seeking re-election this year relish the prospect of running with Mr. Sanders on top of the ticket...
Really?

The only difference between Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama is that the former's not afraid to wear his socialism proudly on his sleeve.

But keep reading.

ADDED: Oh, it turns out it's Hillary hatchet-man David Brock's who's cooked up this scheme. See WSJ, "Clinton Ally Attacks Sanders on Socialism." (Via Memeorandum.)

At Least 30 Slaughtered in Attack at Bacha Khan University in Pakistan (VIDEO)

The number killed keeps going higher depending on the news source.

At the Guardian UK, for example, "Pakistan university attack: at least 30 dead as gunmen storm Bacha Khan campus."

And the death toll's likely to rise.

Plus, watch, at Euronews, "Taliban claim attack on university in NW Pakistan, 21 dead."

'Whiteness History Month' at Portland Community College (VIDEO)

At Campus Reform, "Portland Community College to devote an entire month to 'whiteness'-shaming."

Maybe some of this SJW business will die down once O's out of office. At least, one can hope.

And watch, at KOIN News 6 Portland:


Katrina Pierson, Donald Trump's National Campaign Spokeswoman, Discusses Feud with Ted Cruz (VIDEO)

Newt Gingrich was on Hannity's last night moaning about how Donald Trump was diminishing himself by "beating up" on Ted Cruz.

C'mon, it's politics, and Trump's not one to stick to Marquess of Queensberry rules. Ted Cruz looked a little downcast on the campaign trail yesterday as well. But as they say, if you can't take the heat...

In any case, here's Ms. Pierson:


Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Jackie Johnson's Wednesday Forecast

It looks like El Niño's taken a vacation, but that's just temporary.

See LAT, "What happened to El Niño? Be patient, L.A., it'll come, expert says."

Either way, it's been quite mild this past few days.

At CBS News 2 Los Angeles:


The Coming GOP Crackup

Maybe I should pose the title with a question mark, like this: "The Coming GOP Crackup?"

Crackup or not, the churning of the party's a good thing, although journalists like Molly Ball, at the Atlantic, are probably more eager to eschew the query form.

Here, "Portrait of a Party on the Verge of Coming Apart":
Perhaps the GOP’s chaos is just normal pre-primary tension, when an active contest naturally creates an air of conflict, and candidates have an incentive to warn against their rivals in urgent terms. But for many Republicans—the ones not living in fantasyland—the current battle for the party, between the nihilistic forces of Trump and Cruz on the one hand and the uninspiring conventional politicians on the other, feels like something deeper. It feels like a duel from which only one participant will walk away. It feels like the party is on the brink of breaking apart.

With just two weeks until the Iowa caucuses, the prospect of Trump or Cruz as the Republican nominee is no longer distant enough to be ignored. “I’m surprised that it’s lasted this long,” says Cheryl Leonard, a 63-year-old elementary-school speech pathologist, here with her husband and a friend. “I thought that the showmanship would have died down and somebody real would come forward. But maybe that won’t happen.” She agrees with some of the things Trump says about immigration—we can’t let everybody in—but she’s horrified by his divisiveness. “It’s dangerous for the party, the way he’s alienating people,” she says.

Leonard’s husband, Gary, is leaning toward Kasich now that Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina senator who might have rivaled Kasich as the most liberal candidate in the field, has dropped out. “But I think he’s probably too intelligent to win,” he says ruefully. “If we don’t change right now, there are going to be repercussions.”

On a wall under a high shelf holding shiny amber bottles of bourbon hangs an enormous sign reading “A Strong America Is a Safe America.” The newest Kasich slogan represents his only notable attempt to cater to his party’s fearful mood and lust for machismo. Kasich is introduced by the local state representative, Chip Limehouse, a big, beefy-faced man in a suit, who says: “He’s the adult in the room, and we need an adult running this country!” Among the candidates, only Kasich, Limehouse says, has what it takes to defeat Hillary Clinton in November. “If we nominate the loudest, most outrageous person in the room, we will lose. There’s no two ways about it,” he adds.

Kasich takes the microphone in a blue V-neck sweater and open-collared shirt and does his dorky-dad routine for a few minutes, invoking his mailman father, saying “You’re a doll” to a cherubic 11-year-old girl. He talks about the Ohio budget and bringing people together. “It’s not just about winning an election—it’s about being a uniter, being part of the healing process in our country,” he says. For this crowd, that’s red meat.

Afterwards, standing on the sidewalk outside the bar, I ask Kasich what he thought of Haley’s speech. Trump’s defenders on the far right decried it; which side is Kasich on? He says he didn’t see it—he was out fundraising in California. (Kasich, who has an iPad but not a smartphone and doesn’t use email, doesn’t seem to follow the headlines very closely: A couple of weeks ago, he told reporters he was unaware of the militia standoff in Oregon that was all over the news.) I try again: What does he think about the idea that we should resist the voices of anger? Kasich guffaws and says, sarcastically, “What, we ought to be angrier? Are you kidding me? I don’t think that’s going to fix the problems in our country.”

Kasich has something to add: You may not be able to tell, but he is having the time of his life. “Most people, they get kind of loose and have fun once they lose, and then everybody says, ‘Why didn’t they have fun before they lost?’” he says. “I’m having it right now.” At that, the governor of Ohio turns on his heel and heads for his waiting car.

Trump and Cruz are the outsiders, it’s said, while the other candidates—the ones promoting some version of old-school governance—represent the party establishment. If you’re looking for the establishment, you might expect to find it  at the quarterly meeting of the Republican National Committee, which convened on Thursday in a swank downtown Charleston hotel.

“It’s like the NFL,” says Ron Kaufman, the thin-mustached, Boston-accented committeeman from Massachusetts, a longtime lobbyist and fixer who’s worked for Republicans from Reagan to Romney. (Partisans in each state elect a committeeman and committeewoman to serve on the RNC.) “There are two leagues: the centrist-conservative league, and the right-wing league. We’re in the semifinals to see who’s going to represent each league in the finals.”

Kaufman is for Jeb Bush, who he thinks has an “off chance” to surprise in New Hampshire. The centrist candidate, by his reckoning, has won every Republican primary since 1980; Reagan was only retroactively adopted by the conservative movement, which largely worked against him at the time, according to Kaufman. “I’ve been around since 1865,” he jokes, “so I’m kind of sanguine about the whole thing.” He doesn’t believe that perhaps this year the old rules won’t apply anymore.

If Trump or Cruz does win, he will have laid bare the vacuum where once sat the Republican establishment. Yes, there are the donors, people who give the party a lot of money and think this ought to get them something in return; Trump is running against them. (No less a GOP bigwig than Charles Koch recently lamented his lack of influence on the party.) There are the lobbyists and consultants, but Trump doesn’t listen to them either. There are the elected officials, but they are held hostage by their constituents. There is no smoke-filled room where the poo-bahs could go to work out a deal and end this. In an age of radical disintermediation, parties can’t tell the people what to do...
There's no "off chance" for Jeb. He's through. And Kasich is an also-ran, a footnote in the monstrosity of an anti-establishment realignment.

It's amazing. And exciting!

Still more, FWIW.

Ms. Molly seems wistful at how all the old political firmaments are breaking away.

Edita Vilkevičiūtė for Calvin Klein

She's a smokin' Lithuanian babe.

At Drunken Stepfather, "EDITA VILKEVICIUTE FOR CALVIN KLEIN OF THE DAY."

Kathleen Sorbara Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Casting Call (VIDEO)

Just a couple of weeks now until the big swimsuit issue hits the newsstands!



Ben Carson Campaign Volunteer Killed in Car Crash in Iowa

This is horrible news.

At USA Today, "Carson volunteer dies following wreck in Iowa."

And at the Des Moines Register, "Ben Carson volunteer dies after crash":

OMAHA — A Ben Carson campaign volunteer died in a hospital here after a car crash in western Iowa Tuesday morning.

The accident prompted the Republican presidential candidate to cancel campaign stops Tuesday and Wednesday.

A van driven by a Carson campaign staffer, carrying three campaign volunteers, lost control and was struck by another vehicle on icy Interstate Highway 80 Tuesday morning near Atlantic.

One volunteer, Braden Joplin, was transported to the University of Nebraska medical center in Omaha with serious injuries. He died in the hospital Tuesday around 4:30 p.m., according to a statement from hospital officials.

The other three people in the van were treated and released at hospital in Atlantic, according to Ryan Rhodes, Carson's Iowa campaign director...
More.

Holy Cow! Bernie Sanders Surges to 'Walloping' 60-33 Point Lead in New Hampshire (VIDEO)

I like, "walloping."

At USA Today, "Poll: Bernie Sanders is walloping Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire."

And at CNN, "CNN/WMUR Poll: Sanders trouncing Clinton in New Hampshire":


(CNN) Bernie Sanders' lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire is on the rise, with the Vermont senator leading the former secretary of state by 27 points, 60% to 33%, a new CNN/WMUR poll has found.

The new poll, mostly conducted before Sunday night's debate, found Sanders' support has grown by 10 points since a late-November/early December CNN/WMUR poll, which found Sanders holding 50% to Clinton's 40%.

New Hampshire Democrats' views on the race are solidifying as well, with 52% saying they have definitely decided who they will support, up from 36% who felt that way in early December. Among those voters, Sanders holds an even broader 64% to 35% lead.

But the Vermont senator's support rests heavily on groups whose participation in New Hampshire primaries is less reliable -- notably younger voters and those who aren't registered Democrats.

There are some signs in the poll that the increasingly contested Democratic race is gaining attention among the state's undeclared voters, who are not registered as members of any party and are able to choose which party's primary they will participate in. In the December poll, 38% of undeclared voters who said they planned to vote said they would likely participate in the Democratic primary, a figure that is up to 48% in the new poll.

Those undeclared voters are critical to Sanders' support: 70% in the new poll say they plan to vote for him, 25% Clinton. Among registered Democrats, it's 50% Sanders to 41% Clinton. Still, that represents an increase for Sanders among registered Democrats. The December poll found him trailing Clinton, 47% to 40%, among that group...
Keep reading (there's more video at the link).

Sarah Palin Endorses Donald Trump for GOP Nomination (VIDEO)

I saw this earlier but was busy at the office working up my syllabi for the spring semester. I think this is a major development. Folks on CNN earlier were dismissing Palin as something of a has-been whose creds on the hustings ain't what they used to be. Actually, I'd beg to differ. I expect she's got millions of loyal supporters around the country who're thrilled by her endorsement, and who're excited to see her "stump for Trump."

It's pretty awesome, frankly. I'll bet Ted Cruz is pretty bummed out about it, in fact, to say nothing of the die hard "constitutional conservatives" bewailing Trump's candidacy.

At the Los Angeles Times, "Sarah Palin endorses Donald Trump's campaign for president":

Sarah Palin, a popular figure among evangelicals and tea party followers, endorsed Donald Trump for president Tuesday, giving the New York billionaire a key source of support as chief rival Ted Cruz tries to undercut his standing among conservatives.

Palin joined Trump at a rally in Ames, Iowa, where she hailed his stand against illegal immigration and his vow to take a tough approach to U.S. adversaries on the world stage.

“Are you ready for a commander in chief who will let our warriors do their job and go kick ISIS’s ass?” Palin asked Trump’s supporters at Iowa State University.

The former governor of Alaska can be a polarizing figure. But her strong following among evangelicals and other conservatives makes her a valuable ally at a time when Cruz, a Texas senator, is casting Trump as liberal on abortion, same-sex marriage and other issues...
Plus, at the New York Times, via Memeorandum, "Sarah Palin Endorses Donald Trump, Rallying Conservatives."

More, at the Des Moines Register, "Sarah Palin endorses Donald Trump for president."

Expect updates.

The 'Black, Queer Liberation Collective' Takes Credit for Shutting Down Oakland's Bay Bridge (VIDEO)

The call themselves the "Black.Seed," although I'm not sure why. Sounds pretty weird. Seems like you wouldn't need too much "black seed" if you're in a queer liberation collective. It's mostly rough-and-ready bare-backing high jinks, NTTAWWT!

From last night, at the Los Angeles Times, "Bay Bridge's westbound lanes reopened after rush hour protest; 25 arrested":

The demonstration was carried out by Black.Seed, which identifies itself as a "Black, queer liberation collective," according to a statement released by the Anti-Police Terror Project.

The collective "shut down the Bay Bridge as a show of resistance to a system that continues to oppress Black, Queer, Brown, Indigenous and other marginalized people throughout the Bay Area," according to the statement...
Here's the group's website, "BLACK QUEER LIBERATION COLLECTIVE BLACK.SEED SHUTS DOWN BAY BRIDGE":
Today, January 18th, Black.Seed has shut down the west-bound span of Bay Bridge. Cars are blocking lanes and individuals are chained across lanes to demand investment in the wellbeing of Black people. Motorists on the Bay Bridge can follow the action by tuning their radio to 107.9, a temporary radio station broadcasting the event. The action can also be followed on Twitter: @APTPaction

Over the last few years, we have seen San Francisco and Oakland destroyed by police murders, rising housing costs, rapid gentrification, and apathetic city officials. Last year, we saw dozens of police murders throughout the Bay Area; since June of 2015 in Oakland alone there have been eight Black men murdered by police.

Today Black.Seed celebrates and honors the radical legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Historically, our people have had to take drastic and dramatic measures to highlight the systemic abuses that harm our communities. 51 years ago, those who came before us participated in direct action in Selma, Alabama, to speak out against the harms of racism and oppression. It is this very spirit of resistance that flows through our lives and actions, in the Black Out Friday, Black Brunches, and highway shutdowns of today.

We are here to move towards an increase in the health and wellbeing of all Black people in Oakland & San Francisco. We stand in solidarity with APTP and demand...
Click through to read the list of demands.

And on Twitter, "Update: All 24 freedom fighters have been released!"

See also the San Francisco Chronicle, "Bay Bridge reopens after protesters chain themselves, shut down span."

When you block traffic on freeways and bridges, you don't bring people over to your side. You piss them off and alienate them. It makes good protest theater, I guess. And virtue signalling.

Conservatives Are Increasingly Frustrated by the Continued Support for Donald Trump on the Right (VIDEO)

I like all the top candidates, Cruz, Rubio, and Trump.

I'll be happy with any one of them and I'll fully support the GOP ticket.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump's making this the most memorable primary season ever. What's not to like?

Well, conservative activists aren't pleased by the surge in support for Trump. It gets ugly on Twitter, where battle lines have long been drawn. I don't let it bother me. Everybody's doing their own thing, pushing their own interests, so it's no skin off my back. I've been out here a long time --- this is the third presidential campaign I've blogged --- and the internecine battles erupt every time.

In any case, at WSJ, "Donald Trump, Ted Cruz Fight on GOP’s Right Flank":

MILFORD, N.H.—Jennifer Ouellette is like many conservatives two weeks before the first votes are cast: thrilled that Sen. Ted Cruz is a leading Republican presidential candidate but flummoxed that his top challenger is Donald Trump.
“How do I convince these people to stop looking at the shiny object and to understand who is the constitutional conservative?” the mother of two from Atkinson, N.H., asked Mr. Cruz at a gathering here Sunday night. “I am having a big fight with my sister about this.”

As the 2016 primary season barrels toward its first balloting, the GOP establishment wing’s split in support of multiple candidates would in previous years have buoyed conservative activists, who have typically been the ones to split among several contenders. But Mr. Trump’s unexpectedly enduring candidacy has complicated that.

In the most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, 61% of Republican primary voters describe themselves as conservative. Messrs. Trump and Cruz split that potentially dominant voting bloc almost in half, with 31% saying they support the New York businessman while 27% are backing the senator. Mr. Cruz outpaces Mr. Trump among the most conservative Republican primary voters by a margin of 36% to 28%, by virtue of his support among evangelical voters.

To many activist groups who are beginning to coalesce around Mr. Cruz, Mr. Trump’s appeal among conservatives lies more in his antiestablishment rhetoric, particularly on issues such as immigration, than on most of his policy stances. As the first votes get closer, private gnashing of teeth among the ranks of conservative Republicans about Mr. Trump, and his support among many on the right, is beginning to burst into the open.

A case in point came Monday, when Mr. Trump was invited to speak at Liberty University, an evangelical Christian school in Virginia. Mr. Trump’s religious credentials have come under question by many during his campaign, and after he was given a glowing introduction by Jerry Falwell Jr., the school’s president, Russell Moore, who heads the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission with the Southern Baptist Convention, tweeted: “Politics driving the gospel rather than the other way around is the third temptation of Christ. He overcame it. Will we?”

Erick Erickson, a Georgia talk-radio host who founded the website Redstate.com, said he has “this conversation with conservative groups every day, ‘What can we do to stop Trump?’ ” Yet, he added, “a lot of them don’t want to burn bridges by going after him.”

Penny Nance, chief executive of antiabortion group Concerned Women for America, said socially conservative groups like hers are concerned at the prospect of Mr. Trump’s winning the nomination: They are practiced in combating centrist Republicans—not someone running as more of an outsider than they are.

“I’ve been very clear about my concerns and so have others, but at the end of the day, we’re not good at attacking this way,” Ms. Nance said. “We don’t enjoy it. It’s not what we admire, the negativity in campaigns.”
Still more.

Erick Erickson's no longer the editor of Red State, but folks there are going guns blazing against the Donald. Here's Caleb Howe yesterday, via Memeorandum, "Documents Show Donald Trump's New York Values Do NOT Include Giving To 9/11 Charities."

Amid Rising Antisemitism, 'Mein Kampf' Reprint is a Bestseller in Germany

Yeah, I commented on this a week or two back on Twitter. You think European publishers could time the re-release of "Mein Kampf" ("My Struggle") any better?

And it's not just anti-Semitism. Remember, all kinds of misfits and gypsies were murdered as well. Europe's got its fair share of outsiders and undesirables flooding in. Why give extreme groups a reminder of the ideological justifications for the Holocaust?

At Legal Insurrection.

Muslim Suicide Bomber Kills at Least 10 In Northwest Pakistan (VIDEO)

Another day, another jihad suicide bomber.

At Blazing Cat Fur.



Spike Lee and Jada Pinkett Smith to Boycott Academy Awards

Hey, I actually support this.

Make the Hollywood hypocrites live up to their highfalutin leftist virtues.

At the Los Angeles Times, "Spike Lee and Jada Pinkett Smith to boycott Oscars; academy responds":
"I am both heartbroken and frustrated about the lack of inclusion," [Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences] President Cheryl Boone Isaacs said in a statement released Monday night. "This is a difficult but important conversation, and it's time for big change."

She added that the academy would be taking "dramatic steps" to alter the makeup of its membership and to accelerate diversity efforts.
Plus, read Boone Isaacs' statement for the Academy, "A statement from Academy President Cheryl Boone Isaacs."

More at the Hollywood Reporter, "David Oyelowo Goes Off on Oscars: 'I Am an Academy Member and It Doesn't Reflect Me'."

'The American Dream has nothing to do with socialism...'

Gretchen Carlson picked up on that bit of polling data finding 43 percent of Iowa's Democrat likely caucus-goers identifying as socialist (discussed here, "43 Percent of Likely Iowa Democratic Caucus-Goers Self-Identify as 'Socialist'").

I'm sure some leftists would say that in fact the America Dream wouldn't be possible without socialism --- remember Elizabeth Warren's (and unoriginal Barack Hussein's) "you didn't build that"?

Well, we need more wonderful folks like Ms. Gretchen to say otherwise, bless her heart.

Watch, via Fox News, "Gretchen's Take: More Americans Turn to Socialism as the Answer."

China's Growth Slowest in 25 Years

"Slow growth" for China is almost 7 percent annual GDP expansion. Would that we had such "slow growth."

Still, it's the downtrend that's key, considering all the buzz over the past decade or two about how China's supposedly about to overtake the U.S. as the world's dominant economy, blah, blah.

At WSJ, "China’s Economic Growth Slowest in 25 Years in 2015":
BEIJING—China recorded a pronounced deceleration in growth last year, affirming that a multiyear slowdown is biting the world’s second-largest economy harder and shows little sign of abating.

The growth rate, released by the government on Tuesday, moderated to 6.8% for the fourth quarter and 6.9% for 2015. The annual pace was the weakest in a quarter century, and the quarterly level undershot market expectations, posting its lowest reading since the financial crisis and signaling weakening economic momentum.

Tuesday’s figures put a grade on a tumultuous year that saw the slowdown’s impact spill over to global markets and batter the government’s reputation for competent economic management.

Chinese leaders held an economic policy meeting Monday with senior officials. While state media accounts projected a tone of determined optimism, President Xi Jinping also urged the officials “to stabilize short-term growth.” Premier Li Keqiang talked of “increasing downward pressure” on the economy, complicated by slack global demand.

“The real economy basically hasn’t picked up very well,” said Nomura Group economist Yang Zhao. “We’re going to have a choppier sea ahead of us.”

With growing debt and too much housing and factory capacity, economists—and even Chinese officials—project a tougher year ahead. The stock markets have stumbled into the new year, erasing gains from an unsteady recovery after a summertime crash. And, economists said, the tools the government has traditionally used to revive growth—infrastructure spending, easy credit and ramped-up exports—appear increasingly ineffective.

The 2015 growth rate reported by the government’s statistics bureau was down from the 7.3% gain reported in 2014. Doubts have been raised about the reliability of China’s economic data, though, and 2015’s reported rate sparked renewed concern that growth is slowing faster than the government is saying.

“China’s reported growth rate for 2015 raises many questions rather than providing full reassurance about the economy’s true growth momentum,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University and the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division.

Fears over slowing momentum in China and Beijing’s handling of the economy have combined with concerns over plunging oil and commodity prices to pull down nervy global stock markets since the start of 2016...
Still more.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, Warns Against the 'Deceit and Treachery' of the United States (VIDEO)

It's like the playground bully takes your lunch money and beats you up anyway.

Obama's the hapless kid who keeps giving the playground bully his lunch money only to come in for some more lumps.

Watch, via Euronews:

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that his country remain wary of its old enemy the United States.

In his first comments since most EU sanctions were lifted along with many important US embargoes, Iran's highest authority made it clear that Washington should be treated with suspicion.

"I reiterate the need to be vigilant about the deceit and treachery of arrogant countries, especially the United States...

Hillary Clinton Readies for Long Primary Fight Against Bernie Sanders

Hey, good.

She was supposed to be the inevitable nominee in '08 and look what happened. The alternative was probably worse back then, but at least this time around we know she can be beat.

At the New York Times, "Hillary Clinton Gets Set for a Long Slog Against Bernie Sanders":
Facing a tougher than expected challenge from Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Hillary Clinton’s campaign is preparing for a primary fight that could stretch into late April or early May and require a sprawling field operation in states and territories from Pennsylvania to Guam.

With the Iowa caucuses in two weeks and Mr. Sanders’s insurgent candidacy chipping away at Mrs. Clinton’s once formidable lead there, Clinton aides are acknowledging that the road to the party’s July convention could be an expensive slog. “Remember, I campaigned all the way into June last time,” Mrs. Clinton told CNN last week.

Even though the Clinton team has sought to convey that it has built a national operation, the campaign has invested much of its resources in the Feb. 1 caucuses in Iowa, hoping that a victory there could marginalize Mr. Sanders and set Mrs. Clinton on the path to the nomination. As much as 90 percent of the campaign’s resources are now split between Iowa and the Brooklyn headquarters, according to an estimate provided by a person with direct knowledge of the spending. The campaign denied that figure.

The campaign boasted last June, when Mrs. Clinton held her kickoff event on Roosevelt Island in New York, that it had at least one paid staff member in all 50 states. But the effort did not last, and the staff members were soon let go or reassigned. (Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, said they had been hired as temporary workers to sign up volunteers at the start of the campaign, an effort he said had paid off organizationally.)

The focus on Iowa, which still haunts Mrs. Clinton after the stinging upset by Barack Obama there in 2008, has been so intense that even organizers in New Hampshire, which holds its primary on Feb. 9, have complained to the campaign’s leadership that they feel neglected.

On a call with supporters last week, Mrs. Clinton’s aides laid out a scenario in which the race against Mr. Sanders stretched through April, a prospect that they said would require about $50 million for a national ground operation and other expenses.

“It’s not just a question of the first two states or the first four states,” Mr. Mook said in an interview at Sunday’s Democratic debate in Charleston, S.C. “We’re going to keep going into the map as long as it takes.”

For all its institutional advantages, the Clinton campaign lags behind the Sanders operation in deploying paid staff members: For example, Mr. Sanders has campaign workers installed in all 11 of the states that vote on Super Tuesday. Mrs. Clinton does not, and is relying on union volunteers and members of supportive organizations such as Planned Parenthood to help her.

“It would be good to have the momentum story the day after the caucus of ‘Oh, Bernie won,’ ” Mr. Sanders’s campaign manager, Jeff Weaver, said, “but it’s really about grinding out the delegates, grind, grind, grind, grind, grind.”
More.

'The Revenant' is Really Good

I know a lot of conservatives will dismiss "The Revenant," because Leo DiCaprio is perhaps the most pathetic climate change leftist since Al Gore. That'd be a mistake though. It's a great film. And it's especially great for conservatives, because the film's frontier, man-in-the-wilderness ethic speaks powerfully to American exceptionalism and the ideology of individualism.

Besides, it's an epic of cinematography. A pure beauty to behold. And the story's pretty cool, based on the real life travails of early-19th century frontiersman Hugh Glass.

I can see why the movie's got such huge Oscar buzz. And of course, Leo's been denied a win after five nominations, so he's a shoo-in for a best-actor award this year, especially after seeing how well "The Revenant" did at the Golden Globes.

In any case, the film got decent reviews. See Kenneth Turan, at LAT, "'The Revenant' is a survival tale of beautiful, brute strength," and Manohla Dargis, at NYT, "Review: ‘The Revenant’ Welcomes You to Paradise. Now Prepare to Fall."


Hillary Clinton's 'in the middle of a mini-panic over Sanders' rise...' (VIDEO)

Bill O'Reilly and Charles Krauthammer are having a laugh riot of a time at the clip.

It's good.

Via Fox News:


Record High Surf at Pismo Beach (VIDEO)

Following-up from yesterday, "High Surf at Southern California Beaches (VIDEO)," and "Rip-Roaring Surf Along San Diego Beaches (VIDEO)."

Via KEYT News 3 Santa Barbara:



Monday, January 18, 2016

Is America Racist?

Well, there remain vestiges of racism is America today, but not to the extent the Democrat Party --- and President Obama --- would lead you to believe.

Here's Larry Elder, for Prager University:



Rip-Roaring Surf Along San Diego Beaches (VIDEO)

Following-up from this morning, "High Surf at Southern California Beaches (VIDEO)."

And now at ABC News 10 San Diego:



Hayden Panettiere at the Critics' Choice Awards

Hmm... I guess she's been fighting postpartum depression --- and she's beating it, by the looks of things.

At Pop Sugar, "Hayden Panettiere Makes a Triumphant Return to the Red Carpet After Treatment."

And at WWTDD, "Hayden Panettiere Dynamo."

Family of Robert Levinson 'Betrayed and Devastated' by Obama Administration (VIDEO)

This is why people just hate Barack Hussein. They hate him with an unbridled passion.

At the Fort Lauderdale Sun Sentinel, "Family of Robert Levinson, who went missing in Iran in 2007, upset he wasn't among freed prisoners, say reports."

And watch, at CBS This Morning, "Levinson family feels "betrayed and devastated" after U.S.-Iran prisoner swap." Levinson’s wife, Christine, didn't even get a phone call notifying them of what was happening.

More at CNN, "The family of Robert Levinson speaks." They're really bitter, understandably. This reminds me of the administration's treatment of the Benghazi families, which has been marked by lies and abandonment.

PREVIOUSLY: "U.S. Pays Steep Ranson for Four Innocent Hostages Held Captive by Iran."

Kristen Soltis Anderson Analysis on the Republican Presidential Primary Horse Race (VIDEO)

She's gotten herself a beautiful makeover.

Love that hairstyle.

Remember, she's the author of The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (And How Republicans Can Keep Up).

Via Fox News:



Kirsten Powers is also at the clip. Her book is The Silencing: How the Left is Killing Free Speech.

Kristen and Kirsten.

Heh. I get mixed up on those two names sometimes.

Flowing Curves of Beauty

Loveliness.

At the Political Clown Parade.

Hat Tip: The Other McCain.