This is a top work of political science by two major scholars of American politics, Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government.
I just finished Chapter 1. The authors take on what they call the "folk theory" of democratic governance, which is the ideal conception of democracy and electoral politics envisioning majority rule and an informed electorate. They're especially critical of the "retrospective theory of elections," which has been one of the more popular explanations of voting behavior in recent years. The approach, however, doesn't tell us much about electoral outcomes, other than a fickleness surrounding current political and economic issues that tend to make the elections akin to a coin flip.
Achen and Bartels argue that rather than government effectiveness and policy preferences, partisanship and social identity more powerfully determine voter choice and democratic outcomes. The book's amazingly jargon-free so far, and is hence well-suited to the general reader while still deeply embedded within the longstanding debates on democratic theory in American political science.
I'm enjoying it.
In any case, check out more at Amazon, Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government.
I'll have more on the book later. I'm gearing up for my fall semester preparations (syllabus writing, class digital supplements, and so forth), so I thought it'd be good to read some real "science-y" type literature before school starts.
Monday, July 25, 2016
Donald Trump Gets Polling Bounce After Republican National Convention (VIDEO)
Actually, it's a pretty solid bounce.
A number of organizations are reporting a Trump bounce after Cleveland.
This is ephemeral, of course, because the Democrats are likely to get a bounce as well following Philadelphia, but it shows that voters are responding to the GOP ticket, despite what the MSM hacks would have you believe.
Here's the Los Angeles Times, for one, "Trump takes lead over Clinton as GOP convention generates a bounce for its nominee."
And at CNN, "Trump bounces into the lead." He's got a six-point lead in the CNN poll.
Also at Morning Consult, "Trump Surges Past Clinton With Post-Convention Bump."
The one possibility here is that the DNC hacking scandal ends up being more damaging than many would believe, and the Democrats fail to get a significant bounce coming out of their convention.
I doubt that though. Frankly, I expect Hillary Clinton to give a rousing speech on Thursday night, and Bernie's speech tonight will make the case for Democrat unity despite being slammed in the horrible DNC emails. He'll argue that Hillary's better than Trump.
So, we'll see. We'll see.
And watch, at Morning Joe:
A number of organizations are reporting a Trump bounce after Cleveland.
This is ephemeral, of course, because the Democrats are likely to get a bounce as well following Philadelphia, but it shows that voters are responding to the GOP ticket, despite what the MSM hacks would have you believe.
Here's the Los Angeles Times, for one, "Trump takes lead over Clinton as GOP convention generates a bounce for its nominee."
And at CNN, "Trump bounces into the lead." He's got a six-point lead in the CNN poll.
Also at Morning Consult, "Trump Surges Past Clinton With Post-Convention Bump."
The one possibility here is that the DNC hacking scandal ends up being more damaging than many would believe, and the Democrats fail to get a significant bounce coming out of their convention.
I doubt that though. Frankly, I expect Hillary Clinton to give a rousing speech on Thursday night, and Bernie's speech tonight will make the case for Democrat unity despite being slammed in the horrible DNC emails. He'll argue that Hillary's better than Trump.
So, we'll see. We'll see.
And watch, at Morning Joe:
Ansbach, Germany: Syrian 'Refugee' Suicide Bomber Pledged Allegiance to Islamic State (VIDEO)
Well, this comes as a surprise (eye roll).
At NYT and France 24:
Previously, "Syrian 'Refugee' Suicide Bomber Blows Himself Up in Jihad Attack in Ansbach, Germany."
At NYT and France 24:
Suicide Bomber in Ansbach, Germany, Pledged Loyalty to ISIS, Officials Say https://t.co/wYNY82WuuD #news pic.twitter.com/EfDpyqUExp— Santanu Kandar (@santanukandar) July 25, 2016
Previously, "Syrian 'Refugee' Suicide Bomber Blows Himself Up in Jihad Attack in Ansbach, Germany."
How Political Correctness Leads to Indifference About Child Abuse on the Reservations
It's Naomi Schaefer Riley, at Heat Street, "NEW BOOK: How Political Correctness is Leading Us to Ignore Abuse on American Indian Reservations."
I'm a couple of chapters into Schaefer Riley's new book, The New Trail of Tears: How Washington Is Destroying American Indians.
It's excellent and highly recommended.
I'm a couple of chapters into Schaefer Riley's new book, The New Trail of Tears: How Washington Is Destroying American Indians.
It's excellent and highly recommended.
Jan Crawford at the National Constitution Center (VIDEO)
Watch, an interesting segment, at CBS This Morning, "National Constitution Center tells the story of America":
The National Constitution Center in Philadelphia tells the story of how our founders created a government by the people with an elected president -- and a Constitution that endures and protects us all. Jan Crawford reports.I don't think the question is whether we can "keep" the Constitution so much as we can preserve the liberty that it was originally designed to protect. The Constitution will be with us for a long time. It's how much the interpretation and practice of our constitutional norms have changed that's troubling.
Glorious: Debbie Wasserman Schultz Booed at Florida Democrat Delegation Breakfast (VIDEO)
Absolutely glorious.
Sally Kohn has the sads, lol, "Heckling of @DWStweets right now during her delegation speech makes me sad. I support protest, but also civility. This just feels mean."
Watch. They booed her right off the stage:
More at Instapundit, "HERE’S VIDEO OF DWS GETTING BOOED OUT OF HER OWN DNC BREAKFAST..."
And at Politico, via Memeorandum, "Bedlam erupts as Wasserman Schultz speaks to Florida delegates."
Previously, "Debbie Wasserman Schultz to Resign Following Explosive Email Leaks."
Sally Kohn has the sads, lol, "Heckling of @DWStweets right now during her delegation speech makes me sad. I support protest, but also civility. This just feels mean."
Watch. They booed her right off the stage:
More at Instapundit, "HERE’S VIDEO OF DWS GETTING BOOED OUT OF HER OWN DNC BREAKFAST..."
And at Politico, via Memeorandum, "Bedlam erupts as Wasserman Schultz speaks to Florida delegates."
Previously, "Debbie Wasserman Schultz to Resign Following Explosive Email Leaks."
Cybersecurity Subplot Implicates Russia in Democrat Party Email Hacking Scandal
More on the DNC leaks, a surprisingly tantalizing story of intrigue, at the New York Times.
I'm skeptical, of course. It seems pretty opportunistic for the media to pin this all on Russia, when the world is full of hackers, and frankly China's now considered our biggest cybersecurity enemy.
But what can you do? This fits the meme that Donald Trump is the Putinian candidate.
I'm skeptical, of course. It seems pretty opportunistic for the media to pin this all on Russia, when the world is full of hackers, and frankly China's now considered our biggest cybersecurity enemy.
But what can you do? This fits the meme that Donald Trump is the Putinian candidate.
Democratic leaders and cyberspecialists in the U.S. wonder if Vladimir Putin is meddling in the election https://t.co/tJhvWIMqSF
— The New York Times (@nytimes) July 25, 2016
Researchers conclude two Russian intelligence agencies hacked the DNC/s emails and passed them to @wikileaks. https://t.co/mwo3ZtBPBv
— Steven Lee Myers (@stevenleemyers) July 25, 2016
So, Maybe It's Not the Best Idea to Get Out of Your Car While Touring a Wildlife Park (VIDEO)
Heh.
Not too smart, to put it mildly.
Actually, the woman who was killed tried to save the first woman snatched by the tiger.
And as you can see at the video, that animal wasn't messing around.
At the Telegraph UK, "Family argument in wildlife park leaves woman dead after she leaves car and gets eaten by tiger."
And additional video, via CBS News, "Caught on camera: Woman mauled by tiger after stepping out of car."
Not too smart, to put it mildly.
Actually, the woman who was killed tried to save the first woman snatched by the tiger.
And as you can see at the video, that animal wasn't messing around.
At the Telegraph UK, "Family argument in wildlife park leaves woman dead after she leaves car and gets eaten by tiger."
And additional video, via CBS News, "Caught on camera: Woman mauled by tiger after stepping out of car."
Sunday, July 24, 2016
Syrian 'Refugee' Suicide Bomber Blows Himself Up in Jihad Attack in Ansbach, Germany
Another attack in Germany.
Looks like the Germans got the jihadi flu, heh.
At Telegraph UK, "Ansbach explosion: Syrian asylum seeker killed by own bomb at German bar."
Looks like the Germans got the jihadi flu, heh.
At Telegraph UK, "Ansbach explosion: Syrian asylum seeker killed by own bomb at German bar."
Jesus. Third attack in Germany in as many days. This is an IED. https://t.co/rwt3mzs4DV
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) July 24, 2016
What is going on in Germany? Isn't this the fourth attack in about two weeks? (Mall shooting, axe, machete...) https://t.co/68XfhQjMFm
— Sarah Kendzior (@sarahkendzior) July 25, 2016
BREAKING: BOMBING Near Ansbach, Germany Music Festival – ONE DEAD https://t.co/9mybUxwZtR via @gatewaypundit
— Jim Hoft (@gatewaypundit) July 24, 2016
Detonation occurred at the entrance music festival '#Ansbach Open' in front of wine bar https://t.co/ZsZSAV6DJC pic.twitter.com/2p3qM9rnAO
— RT (@RT_com) July 25, 2016
3. Germany: Attacker was 27 year old Syrian man. #Ansbach
— Veit Medick (@vmedick) July 25, 2016
4. Germany: Attacker was known to local police. Was denied asylum recently but had temporary residence status. Tried to kill himself twice.
— Veit Medick (@vmedick) July 25, 2016
Electoral College Map: Donald Trump More Than Competitive
Tweeted by CNN's master map magician John King:
Click through to look at the map. Trump's been running even with Clinton in some of those battleground toss-up states pictured, Ohio especially (in that Suffolk poll out this last week).
So, just keep an eye on the battleground states. The national horse race polling is interesting, but that's going to be mostly for mass media consumption. It's going to go down to a few key states, and I think Trump could have a good chance. But like I said earlier, he's going to need to go up with advertising, and soon. He'll need to fork over some of his own cash, if nothing else. Sheesh.
Click through to look at the map. Trump's been running even with Clinton in some of those battleground toss-up states pictured, Ohio especially (in that Suffolk poll out this last week).
So, just keep an eye on the battleground states. The national horse race polling is interesting, but that's going to be mostly for mass media consumption. It's going to go down to a few key states, and I think Trump could have a good chance. But like I said earlier, he's going to need to go up with advertising, and soon. He'll need to fork over some of his own cash, if nothing else. Sheesh.
Advantage hillaryclinton but @realdonaldtrump more than competitive as we shift from #RNCinCLE 2… https://t.co/QzWKK5ZoKK
— John King (@JohnKingCNN) July 24, 2016
Clinton Campaign Manager Robby Mook: #DNCLeaks a Russian Op to Help Donald Trump Campaign
Someone noted on Twitter earlier that this is in fact part of a broader effort to otherize Donald Trump as a foreign presence, an un-American Putinian-candidate.
Inevitable spin, I guess.
The Democrat convention's not getting off to a particularly auspicious start.
At Althouse, "Clinton Campaign Manager Robby Mook floats the conspiracy theory: Russians hacked the DNC emails for the purpose of helping Trump."
Inevitable spin, I guess.
The Democrat convention's not getting off to a particularly auspicious start.
At Althouse, "Clinton Campaign Manager Robby Mook floats the conspiracy theory: Russians hacked the DNC emails for the purpose of helping Trump."
How Donald Trump Broke the Conservative Movement (And My Heart)
It's from Katherine Miller, at BuzzFeed, not my favorite publication.
Still, this is interesting because I feel entrenched coalitions are breaking up, and that's not a bad thing. At the least, whether Trump wins or not, American conservatism's going to have to do a rethink.
Still, this is interesting because I feel entrenched coalitions are breaking up, and that's not a bad thing. At the least, whether Trump wins or not, American conservatism's going to have to do a rethink.
How Donald Trump Broke The Conservative Movement (And My Heart) https://t.co/CjWivWs4cq pic.twitter.com/sPbVzLx8Vj
— Katherine Miller (@katherinemiller) July 25, 2016
Deal of the Day: EGO Power+ 20-Inch 56-Volt Lithium-ion Cordless Lawn Mower [BUMPED]
At Amazon, EGO Power+ 20-Inch 56-Volt Lithium-ion Cordless Lawn Mower - 4.0Ah Battery and Charger Kit.
Also, Robert Spitzer, Guns Across America: Reconciling Gun Rules and Rights.
And Jennifer Carlson, Citizen-Protectors: The Everyday Politics of Guns in an Age of Decline.
Firmin DeBrabander, Do Guns Make Us Free? Democracy and the Armed Society.
Les Adams, The Second Amendment Primer: A Citizen's Guidebook to the History, Sources, and Authorities for the Constitutional Guarantee of the Right to Keep and Bear Arms.
BONUS: Dana Loesch, Hands Off My Gun: Defeating the Plot to Disarm America.
Also, Robert Spitzer, Guns Across America: Reconciling Gun Rules and Rights.
And Jennifer Carlson, Citizen-Protectors: The Everyday Politics of Guns in an Age of Decline.
Firmin DeBrabander, Do Guns Make Us Free? Democracy and the Armed Society.
Les Adams, The Second Amendment Primer: A Citizen's Guidebook to the History, Sources, and Authorities for the Constitutional Guarantee of the Right to Keep and Bear Arms.
BONUS: Dana Loesch, Hands Off My Gun: Defeating the Plot to Disarm America.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz to Resign Following Explosive Email Leaks
At Heat Street, "DNC Boss Debbie Wasserman Schultz Resigns After Wikileaks Reveals She Burned Bernie Sanders."
And from Ed Driscoll, at Instapundit, "WASSERMAN SCHULTZ OUT AS DNC LEADER AFTER CONVENTION."
ADDED: At CNN:
And from Ed Driscoll, at Instapundit, "WASSERMAN SCHULTZ OUT AS DNC LEADER AFTER CONVENTION."
ADDED: At CNN:
#Breaking: DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz says she will step down https://t.co/J0PJ0m2nUG https://t.co/DhTP65GFlU
— CNN (@CNN) July 24, 2016
Machete Attack: Syrian Muslim 'Refugee' Murders Pregnant Woman in Reutlingen, Germany (VIDEO)
Well, authorities won't to be able to spin this one as an Anders Brevik knock off attack.
At Pamela's, "Knife Jihad: MACHETE WIELDING Muslim “refugee” KILLS woman, injuring two others in #Reutlingen #Germany."
At the Telegraph U.K., "Germany machete attack: Syrian asylum seeker murders 'pregnant' woman in Reutlingen":
And still more, at London's Daily Mail, "Syrian refugee, 21, hacks PREGNANT woman to death with a machete and injures two others before hero BMW driver runs him over, in latest attack to shock Germany."
At Pamela's, "Knife Jihad: MACHETE WIELDING Muslim “refugee” KILLS woman, injuring two others in #Reutlingen #Germany."
At the Telegraph U.K., "Germany machete attack: Syrian asylum seeker murders 'pregnant' woman in Reutlingen":
A Syrian man has attacked and killed a woman he was reportedly in love with, hitting her with a meat cleaver in the southern German town of Reutlingen.Keep reading.
Another woman and a man were also injured in the attack. Local authorities have identified the man as a 21-year-old asylum-seeker from Syria who was known to the police and had previously been charged with causing bodily harm.
He attacked the woman with a meat cleaver taken from the kebab shop where they both worked shortly after 4:30pm on Sunday. The German newspaper Bild reports the woman was pregnant...
And still more, at London's Daily Mail, "Syrian refugee, 21, hacks PREGNANT woman to death with a machete and injures two others before hero BMW driver runs him over, in latest attack to shock Germany."
Bernie Sanders Says DNC's Debbie Wasserman Schultz Should Resign (VIDEO)
He's taking it pretty well, heh.
At CNN, via Memeorandum, "Sanders: ‘Awful’ DNC emails should cost party chair her job."
At CNN, via Memeorandum, "Sanders: ‘Awful’ DNC emails should cost party chair her job."
Trump Surrogate Pam Bondi Reacts to Tim Kaine as Democrat Running-Mate (VIDEO)
Following-up from earlier, "Pam Bondi Speech to the Republican National Convention #RNCinCLE (VIDEO)."
Via Fox News:
Via Fox News:
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban Endorses Donald Trump
Heh.
Trump's better for Europe.
At WSJ, "Hungarian Prime Minister Expresses Support for Donald Trump":
Trump's better for Europe.
At WSJ, "Hungarian Prime Minister Expresses Support for Donald Trump":
BUDAPEST—Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Saturday expressed support for U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump, citing Mr. Trump’s views on fighting terrorism.More.
Mr. Orban said Mr. Trump’s proposals for the U.S. would also help Europe solve its security issues in wake of recent terrorist attacks.
The European Union’s current political leadership has failed and should undergo a major revamp to stem the rising fear and insecurity among the European people, Mr. Orban said in Baile Tusnad, a town in Romania’s Transylvania region, which has a large number of ethnic Hungarians.
The Hungarian premier’s annual Baile Tusnad speech gained international interest in 2014, when he rejected liberalism and expressed admiration for “illiberal democracies,” listing Turkey or Russia, among other countries.
Since Mr. Orban came into power with a landslide victory in the 2010 general elections, the Obama administration has criticized Hungary several times for alleged state corruption, failure to observe freedom of religion and shortcomings in following the rule of law.
“The EU is incapable of defending its own citizens, its own external borders, unable to hold together its community—as reflected in the exit of the United Kingdom. What else is needed to state that Europe’s current political leadership has failed?” Mr. Orban said.
The U.K. voted in a referendum last month to leave the bloc...
Laurie Penny Hangs with Twitter's Biggest Troll
This is an excellent excursion into the far-left mindset in the age of Donald Trump.
Bear in mind here that Laurie Penny's a Marxist, or more specifically, she's "a radical queer feminist leftist writer burdened with actual principles."
She thinks Milo Yiannopoulos is a brilliant provocateur who's wrong about everything. She'd deny it, but she's got a hopeless crush on the dude.
But read the whole thing, via Ed Driscoll, at Instapundit:
Bear in mind here that Laurie Penny's a Marxist, or more specifically, she's "a radical queer feminist leftist writer burdened with actual principles."
She thinks Milo Yiannopoulos is a brilliant provocateur who's wrong about everything. She'd deny it, but she's got a hopeless crush on the dude.
But read the whole thing, via Ed Driscoll, at Instapundit:
Army of Unfuckable Hate Nerds explained pointedly by @PennyRed! https://t.co/JzOpiZtWmH #AUHN
— marc maron (@marcmaron) July 23, 2016
“According to the law of the wild web, the spoils go to those with fewest…” — @PennyRed https://t.co/cIS6TE1h0D pic.twitter.com/S2vBwocaxE
— Christopher Pryde (@lowerdoses) July 23, 2016
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