The Choice After McCain?

What will deep conservatives do now that John McCain has reemerged as the Republican frontrunner?

The same bedrock GOP activists who see the Arizona Senator as RINO were happy to see McCain's campaign crashing down last summer. Where will they go in search of the Ronald Reagan of 2008?

Peter Brown over at The Politico has a nice examination of the available choices:

It is worth remembering that the Arizona senator was the front-runner for the nomination when the race began more than a year ago. But his manner and refusal to adhere to the party orthodoxy turned off too many GOP activists.

He began the campaign as the establishment choice because Republicans usually nominate the aspirant considered next in line — and since there was no incumbent president or incumbent or previous vice president, he inherited that slot.

But strong opposition to his candidacy among some of the most conservative elements of the Republican Party, who suspected he really was not one of them, cost him dearly.

By last summer, McCain's campaign was almost broke, and there was serious talk that he might throw in the towel. Reporters began writing his political obituary.

Nevertheless, his New Hampshire victory has put him back at the top of the pack. Those same folks who rejected him are now on the spot.

They can go with one of the other candidates or, upon reflection, decide that perhaps McCain isn't that unacceptable after all — especially given polling data suggesting he might be a stronger candidate in November than many of his competitors would be.

Given that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's inability to win either Iowa or New Hampshire has badly damaged his candidacy, to which many conservatives had flocked, those Republicans may not have many more palatable choices.

They can hope former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson — perhaps the most conservative of the remaining candidates — mounts a comeback that would make McCain's look like a piker. But that hardly seems in the cards.

Or they can go to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, whose record and rhetoric on taxes and terrorism makes many economic and foreign policy conservatives very nervous, perhaps even more so than does McCain.

Their other alternative is throwing in their lot with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who, on a host of issues, is far to the left of McCain and whose messy personal life makes many conservatives uncomfortable. Besides, after the candidate finished just ahead of quasi-fringe candidate Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) in New Hampshire and lost to Paul 3-to-1 in Iowa, Giuliani's chances for the nomination don't look very good.

Even those who don’t trust McCain can read the polls. During the past few months, when McCain was wandering in the Republican wilderness, he retained a strong image with the overall electorate. Both nationally and in a variety of states, McCain ran better than all but Giuliani when matched against the potential Democratic contenders.

I would add that McCain's been right on Iraq, and he's the most respected figure from either party on national security. But he doesn't invoke the terror issue, like Rudy Giuliani; and on the stump McCain rarely mentions he has a son fighting in Iraq, although the personal nature of war has taken a toll of the McCain family.

I argued the case for a McCain pick by GOP activists in an earlier post, "Can McCain Win the Conservative Vote?"

Perhaps tonight's GOP debate will clarify the issue further.

Photo Credit: New York Times