Monday, January 21, 2008

Out of Sight? Giuliani's New York Advantage Slides

I've suggested numerous times now that Rudy Giuliani's Florida election strategy is likely to turn out poorly for him. Mainly, the dynamics of media and momentum - taking place for nearly a month - will have passed him by, relegating his once frontrunner presidential campaign to the dustbin.

We won't know for sure until the Florida election on January 29. However,
the New York Times reports on the results of a WNBC/Marist poll that finds Giuliani slipping badly in public opinion relative to GOP frontrunner John McCain:

The strong advantage that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani enjoyed in his home state appears to be slipping away, according to the latest WNBC/Marist Poll, while Senator Hillary Clinton is still leading among the Democrats of New York.

Among likely Republican voters, 33 percent said they supported Senator John McCain. Mitt Romney is the preference of 19 percent, while 18 percent said they would vote for Mr. Giuliani and Mike Huckabee is backed by 15 percent.

When undecided voters who lean toward a particular candidate are included, Mr. McCain has 34 percent, Mr. Romney and Mr. Giuliani both have 19 percent and Mr. Huckabee is still supported by 15 percent.
Some media outlets are sticking by Giuliani's cause; and some polling data indeed shows Giuliani contending well in the Sunshine State.

But the former New York Mayor polled just 2 percent in South Carolina's primary last Saturday. With a week to go before the next vote, Giuliani somehow needs to shift the media focus away from frontrunner McCain and his main challenger for the nomination, Mitt Romney.

Giuliani's circumstances seem more do-or-die than ever.