Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Great Odds on McCain Winning Nomination

Many conservatives are licking their wounds this morning, thinking about how they'll carry on now that their candidate's been steamrolled by the McCain victory express.

Darrell over at Morning Coffee has checked the Florida exit polls from last night and declared McCain can't win.

Michelle Malkin is attacking the Florida vote, alleging voter fraud in
suggesting that 20 percent of yesterday's votes were cast by non-Republicans.

Well, let's be honest: McCain's so far the most trusted political leader in the race on the leadership question, and he's also the most electable.

As for allegations of fraud, sounds like sour grapes to me, and if there were irregularities, the state will investigate. Whatever happens, the momentum's shifted to McCain.

The Gallup Poll today notes that
McCain's chances of winning the primary are excellent:

All signs look positive for John McCain now. Our Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows that McCain leads the Republican field nationally. Even before his Florida victory, McCain's lead over Mitt Romney was expanding in our interviewing we did on Monday night. Currently, in interviewing that includes Tuesday night -- but still doesn't reflect the full impact of his Florida win -- he is leading Romney by 11 points. Romney remains just slightly ahead of Mike Huckabee in second place.

Given the wide expanse of states voting next week on Super Tuesday, these national numbers are critically important. McCain's strong positioning is bolstered when we look at his leads in USA Today/Gallup polls conducted in both California and New York. Again, we conducted these surveys prior to the Florida vote, and the possible bounce McCain will get from his victory there in the Sunshine State.

Gallup will track the GOP race every day, as it will be important to see what happens when Rudy Giuliani officially drops out the race, as is widely expected, and if he endorses McCain. This would then reduce the field to four players: McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and Ron Paul. It would not be surprising to find McCain further expanding his national lead in Wednesday night's interviewing.
I'll have more updates and analysis going forward.

I was hoping for a little closure to all the intraparty acrimony, but Malkin's not gotten off her anti-McCain platform, and talk radio's up in arms.

Bald-Headed Geek's report, from the comments:

I blogged about the McCain win this morning, and then listened as Glenn Beck AND Laura Ingraham essentially told people to sit at home rather than vote for him. Frankly, I found their position shortsighted, infantile and idiotic.

If they want to GUARANTEE that either Clinton or Obama captures the White House, this is the best way to do it.
We'll see how things develop this week.

Rudy Giuliani endorsed McCain while I was writing this post, and CNN reports that California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger may do so as well.

The momentum is getting prohibitive for Romney.