Back in 2012, a bunch of conservatives became fixated on some obscure website called "Unskewed Polls," which adjusted that year's election polling correcting for partisan composition, and so forth.
The results were spectacularly wrong. That is, most of the polling in 2012 was accurate. Indeed, Gallup quit doing presidential horse race polling this year because it botched its surveys four years ago, especially its prediction of Romney winning the popular vote.
I'm not going down that rabbit hole again.
I've already scheduled a post for tomorrow morning, linking Sabato's Crystal Ball, which has Hillary Clinton winning with 322 electors. Perhaps she won't do that well. It's just that based on current polling, Donald Trump falls well short of the 270 electors needed to pull off an upset.
He'd need to win Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio to get 269, according to the Wall Street Journal. He'd need to pick up one more state to go over the top, perhaps Colorado.
We'll see, in any case.
Meanwhile, here's this year's "Unskewed Polls," at Gateway Pundit (don't get too excited).
See, "Here’s Why THE POLLS ARE WRONG=> Trump Will WIN IN A LANDSLIDE! (POLLS)."
I'd love for tomorrow map to turn out like this, although I'm realistic.
I mean, c'mon, they've even got Trump winning the Keystone State. I'm just a wee bit skeptical.
0 comments:
Post a Comment