Assessing Republican General Election Chances

I noted in a couple of recent entries (here and here) that GOP general election chances are good this year.

Now Fred Barnes, over at the Wall Street Journal, makes the case for the GOP in November. He suggests Republicans have no need for despair:

True, the outcome isn't entirely in their hands. But Republicans can significantly improve their chances of winning by making smart campaign decisions. And events must also go their way, just as they did for John McCain, now the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.

Let's start with what Republicans need to retain the presidency. Mr. McCain has the biggest role, but other Republicans must help, including President Bush.

- Independent voters. Conservatives unhappy over Mr. McCain's emergence as the Republican nominee have gotten lavish media coverage. But while they love to grumble and grouse, conservatives tend to be loyal Republicans who wind up voting for their party's candidates.

It was the defection of independents, not conservatives, that caused the Democratic landslide in the congressional elections in 2006. Their preference for Democrats jumped to 57% in 2006 from 49% in 2004. Mr. McCain must win many of them back, since independents constitute roughly one-third of the overall electorate.

Mr. McCain is well-positioned to do this, but it won't be easy. What independents like about Mr. McCain -- his maverick style and willingness to deal with Democrats -- is exactly what infuriates conservatives. He must walk a fine line, emphasizing issues like spending cuts and entitlement reform that appeal to both independents and conservatives.

- A volunteer army. Mr. McCain needs one at least as large and powerful as President Bush's was in 2004. Against all odds, Mr. Bush's army of over more than two million volunteers overwhelmed the aggressive, well-financed Democratic effort to drive up voter turnout.

But 2008 is different story. Democrats relied on paid workers in 2004 and can do the same this year so long as rich liberals like George Soros are willing to foot the bill again. The Bush volunteers were motivated by a strong commitment to the president -- a commitment that doesn't extend to Mr. McCain. He'll have to recruit his own army, perhaps by enlisting veterans.

- The right vice president. If elected, John McCain will be 72 when he takes office. (Ronald Reagan was a mere 69 on his first inauguration.) For obvious reasons, this makes Mr. McCain's choice of a vice presidential running mate all the more important.

His pick must not only be credible as a possible president, but also someone viewed by Republicans as a successor should Mr. McCain decide to serve only one term. And that's not all. His running mate must connect with economic and foreign policy conservatives -- and especially with social conservatives. In all likelihood, Mr. McCain will concentrate on attracting independents and downplay issues such as abortion and gay rights. Social conservatives, for whom these issues are crucial, will need a champion.

- President Bush. Given his unpopularity, Republicans don't want the election to be a referendum on the Bush administration. In fact, one of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's reasons for staying out of the 2008 race is to prevent Democrats, just because a Bush is on the ticket, from doing exactly that.

But the president does have an important campaign role. On national security issues, he speaks with considerable authority and with a big megaphone. And there are bound to be opportunities for him to criticize or correct the Democratic nominee on the war on terrorism, terrorist surveillance, Iran, Iraq and the surge, Russia, and much else. The trick will be for Mr. Bush to pick his spots wisely (and infrequently) and not overplay his hand.

So far so good. Next, though, Barnes discusses factors neither McCain nor the GOP can control. One of the most important? Iraq:

Iraq won't be a good Republican issue in 2008.

Why?

Continued security gains are not guaranteed, says Barnes, and political progress is slow, giving the Democrats a wedge issue.

I'm going to disagree here.

John Podhoretz made an interesting argument at Commentary on the GOP and Iraq in '08. The Iraq issue looks good for the Republicans:

It is a great irony that the best political news for Republicans in a notably unfavorable election year—with the public telling pollsters that it is desirous of change and prefers Democratic stands on most issues by margins ranging from ten to twenty points—may come out of Iraq. Should the surge’s progress continue and deepen, the Democratic nominee may find himself or herself in a very uncomfortable position come autumn. The Democratic base will not have changed its mind about the war’s evil, and it will not be happy with a leader who does. So the nominee will find it almost impossible to embrace the surge, and certainly not after having disparaged it caustically in the past. But if the nominee does not embrace the real possibility of victory in Iraq, he or she will run the risk of appearing defeatist, or worse, in the eyes of the same independent voters who fled the GOP in droves in 2006.

Meanwhile, the candidate most associated with the surge, John McCain, will (assuming he becomes the nominee of the Republican party) be uniquely well situated to deploy an accusation he has been leveling at the Democratic frontrunners for nearly a year. “I was very disappointed to see Senator Obama and Senator Clinton embrace the policy of surrender by voting against funds to support our brave men and women fighting in Iraq,” McCain said about a vote the two Democrats cast in May 2007. He called this “the equivalent of waving a white flag of surrender to al Qaeda.”

As his campaign took off in January 2008, McCain sharpened the dagger:

Candidate Clinton has called for surrender and waving the white flag. I think it’s terrible. I think it’s terrible. . . . For us to do what Senator Clinton wants us to do—that is to wave the white flag—I cannot guarantee United States security in the region or in the United States.

This is the ground—as tribunes of an American victory in Iraq—on which Republicans will have no choice but to stand in November 2008. They may not be able to prevail with it, but they have no hope of prevailing without it.

If McCain's defeated in November, it won't be on national security.