Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Obama's Polling Slide Reveals Deep Liabilities

Barack Obama's deep collapse in public opinion continues this afternoon with the findings from the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. Obama holds advantages on domestic isssues, but he's far from where he should be for a generic Democrat at this stage of the campaign, and he's showing deep liabilities on intenational affairs and crisis leadership. Chuck Todd provides the analysis:

The Wall Street Journal's data is in line with other recent survey's tracking an Obama collapse.

As I argued earlier today, at this rate it's unlikely that Obama will enjoy a polling bump from next week's Democratic National Convention. Indeed, it looks like "The One" peaked way too early this year, and since the Illinois Senator's radicalism continues to provide scandal-fodder, buyer's remorse may genuinely come to characterize Democratic Party sentiment after Labor Day.

The "Clinton Factor" will be a likely contributor:

... perhaps the biggest factor keeping the presidential race close has been Obama’s inability to close the deal with some of Hillary Clinton’s supporters. According to the poll, 52 percent of them say they will vote for Obama, but 21 percent are backing McCain, with an additional 27 percent who are undecided or want to vote for someone else.

What’s more, those who backed Clinton in the primaries — but aren’t supporting Obama right now — tend to view McCain in a better light than Obama and have more confidence in McCain’s ability to be commander-in-chief.

See also, "Obama Hammered by Massive Erosion in Public Opinion."