At Gallup, "Slim Majority in U.S. Expect Republicans to Win the Senate":
Partisans on both sides show signs of wishful thinking when assessing which party will win control of the U.S. House and Senate this fall. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats interviewed in the Sept. 25-30 survey say their own party will win the Senate -- not an unreasonable conjecture given that Democrats currently control the upper chamber and would need to lose a net of six seats to lose the majority. But the slight majority of Democrats, 51%, also believe their party will win in the House -- an outcome out of step with the Republican gains most pundits are expecting.
Likewise, despite the closeness of several races that Republicans must win if they are to gain control of the Senate, the vast majority of Republicans, 76%, are optimistic the Republicans will take the U.S. Senate. Meanwhile, 87% of Republicans believe the Republican Party will control of the House, possibly reflecting their awareness that their party already has a firm hold on it.
The more objective predictions may be those made by political independents, which mirror the national averages. More than half of independents predict Republicans will win the Senate, and a solid majority -- 61% -- say Republicans will win the House.
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