Late Shifts in the Polls Probably Won't Help Desperate Democrats

Following up on my previous entry, "Democrats Now in Retreat as GOP on Verge of Historic Gains in House of Representatives."

Crush these mofos. Flatten them until they're bleeding out of the eye sockets.

At the Monkey Cage, "Why late shifts in the polls probably won’t help Democrats in Senate races":

All of the major Senate forecasting models, including ours at Election Lab, now rely heavily on averages of public polls.  This raises the question of whether those averages will be correct on Election Day, and whether any misses could affect which party manages to retain control of the Senate.  In particular, there is the question of whether polling misses might mean that the Democrats end up with a slim Senate majority after all.

There are reasons to be skeptical that this will happen.  It’s not just that we can’t easily predict whether the polls will over- or underestimate one party’s vote share, as discussed by Nate Silver and by Mark Blumenthal & Co.  And it’s not just, as Josh Katz and Sean Trende have found, that Senate polls already tend to be pretty accurate at this point in time — especially when candidates have a 3- to 4-point lead, as do Republican candidates in Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky and Louisiana.

The other key point is this: Late movement in Senate polls tends to be in the direction of the underlying fundamentals.  I discussed this movement in the polls in an earlier post, and it’s worth revisiting it now.

The analysis is pretty straightforward.  Estimate a simple model of Senate elections from 1980 to 2012 that relies on only a few factors: economic growth, presidential approval, whether it’s a midterm or presidential year, and how the state voted in the most recent presidential election. Then estimate an out-of-sample forecast for every Senate election between 1992 and 2012. Then compare the polls to that forecast.

Here is the gap between the polls and the forecast for the last 60 days of the campaign...

Continue reading.

Basically, public opinion polls should settle closer and closer to the prediction of the electoral model, hence early predictions of GOP gains are increasingly likely to hold true.

So crush their souls, the Democrat-progressive vermin. Flatten them like corpses in the mud.