Saturday, July 11, 2015

Donald Trump Tied with Jeb Bush in Latest Reuters/Ipsos Poll

At Reuters, "White House contenders Trump, Bush in virtual dead heat: Reuters/Ipsos poll":
Donald Trump, who became the center of attention in the race for the 2016 Republican U.S. presidential nomination with his denunciation of illegal immigrants from Mexico, has vaulted into a virtual dead heat with Jeb Bush atop the field, a Reuters-Ipsos poll released on Saturday showed.

Trump, a billionaire real estate developer, had the support of 15.8 percent of respondents in the online poll of self-identified Republicans compared to 16.1 percent for Bush, a former Florida governor.

They were followed by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 9.5 percent, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul at 8.1 percent, surgeon and author Ben Carson at 7.2 percent and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker at 5.8 percent.

However, given a choice of three candidates - Bush, Trump or Florida Senator Marco Rubio - Bush had a comfortable lead at 42 percent among the respondents in the Reuters-Ipsos Republican poll, compared to 28.4 percent for Trump and 20 percent for Rubio....

The controversy over Trump's immigration comments has dominated news coverage of the Republican campaign in recent weeks, and he has climbed in the Reuters-Ipsos poll to draw essentially even with Bush. On June 30, the poll had Bush at 16.9 percent and Trump at 12.8 percent.

A hard line against illegal immigration may find a receptive audience in Republican primary voters, with U.S. conservatives often accusing President Barack Obama of doing too little to secure America's border with Mexico.

Trump also has accused Bush of being weak on illegal immigration, bringing Bush's Mexican-born wife into the debate. "If my wife were from Mexico, I think I would have a soft spot for people from Mexico. I can understand that," Trump said in a CNN interview.

Trump has increasingly come under fire from some of his rivals for the Republican nomination including Bush.

"Everybody has a belief that we should control our borders," Bush said last week. "But to make these extraordinarily kind of ugly comments is not reflective of the Republican Party. Trump is wrong on this."
This is a small sample of 400 respondents, with a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points. Frankly, I like that YouGov poll better, despite it being a non-probability sample. Trump was at 15 percent to Bush's 11 percent in that survey. It sounds more accurate, considering all the huge enthusiasm Trump's generating on immigration.

Via Memeorandum.

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