Sammy Braddy Tease

She'a a lovely British Page 3 fashion model.

At Egotastic!, "SAMMY BRADDY NAUGHTY SCHOOLGIRL TEASE."

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton Campaign in New Hampshire (VIDEO)

Okay, here's a some video for you, heh.

At WMUR News 9 Manchester, "Clinton, Sanders rally in New Hampshire."

That's an interesting clip. It starts with footage from Bernie's rally in Claremont.

Also, at WCVB News 5 Boston, "Clinton, Sanders turn full attention to New Hampshire," and "Hillary Clinton says Sanders must explain policies."

I just don't see Clinton winning in the Granite State. Sanders holds a 63-to-30 percent lead in that UMass Lowell poll I blogged last night.

And Bernie is so on point and message-disciplined, it's going to be a matter of just how big a blowout New Hampshire's going to be for him. If Hillary can keep the damage minimal, beating expectations, then she'll fly out of there with something of a win.

Expect updates...

Snowpack at California's Sierra Nevadas at 130 Percent (VIDEO)

More rain's expected up that way later today, and if the snowpack gets up to around 150 percent of normal, we'll almost be ready to declare an end to the drought.

My gosh this is great!

At KCRA News 3 Sacramento:



Previously, "El Niño's Helping, But Still a Ways to Go."

Former Senator Scott Brown Endorses Donald Trump at Rally in Milford, New Hampshire (VIDEO)

Not sure how valuable these endorsements are. Sarah Palin's endorsement in Iowa didn't seem to help Trump too much, although there's no discounting the earned media, so there's that.

At WMUR News 9 Manchester, "Scott Brown endorses Donald Trump at campaign event in Milford":

They held a joint press conference together, but almost all of the questions were about Iowa.

"Everybody wanted his endorsement and I'm very honored that he's giving it to me,” said Trump.

A lot of the national media tried to provoke Trump into being more expressive about what happened, but Trump did his best to just kind of brush off the loss.

From what he told the crowd, it was clear that the way this is being portrayed is getting under his skin.

"I think that we did very well. I did not expect to do so well. I guess what did happen is one poll came out that said I'm four or five points ahead and that maybe built up a false expectation for some people,” said Trump.

While he kept his cool with the media, Trump let a little New York slip into his vocabulary in his stump speech, swearing twice -- once talking about Russia...

Now, if Trump could get Brown's daughter Ayla out on the stump, I'm sure he'd pick up an even larger chunk of youth demographic, young male youth in particular, heh.

Amazon to Open Hundreds of Brick-and-Mortar Bookstores

I love Amazon, but there's no substitute to long hours lounging and browsing around bookstores.

At the New York Post, "Amazon to open hundreds of brick-and-mortar bookstores":

Amazon.com Inc is planning to open hundreds of brick-and-mortar bookstores, the head of a major U.S. mall operator said.

Such an expansion, which Amazon itself has not confirmed, would position the world’s No. 1 online retailer as a competitor to booksellers such as Barnes & Noble Inc. At present, Amazon operates a single bookstore in its home city, Seattle.

“You’ve got Amazon opening brick-and-mortar bookstores and their goal is to open, as I understand, 300 to 400 bookstores,” Sandeep Mathrani, chief executive of General Growth Properties Inc, said on Tuesday.

He was responding to question about mall traffic during a conference call with analysts, a day after the No. 2 U.S. mall operator reported quarterly earnings.

Amazon spokeswoman Sarah Gelman declined to comment...

Bezos has big plans. He's freakin' out to take over the entire U.S. economy!

I joke, but not by much. He already owns the Washington Post, one of the most important newspaper properties in the U.S., and he's seeking to open his own parcel shipping business on a scale to rival both UPS and the U.S. Postal Service. He's like a 21st-century robber baron, although no one looks at all these new tech giant moguls like that.

More at that top link.

Young Voters in Iowa Favored Bernie Sanders Six-to-One Over Hillary Clinton

Well, America's youth are dumb, but they're not that dumb: they can sure ferret out the true hardline communist in the Democrat field.

From Ronald Brownstein, at the Atlantic, "The Great Democratic Age Gap":

Bernie Sanders answered two important questions with his strong showing in Iowa. But, despite his impressive finish, he’ll need to answer two more to truly threaten Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The most powerful lesson from the Iowa caucus results is that Democrats are facing not just a generation gap, but a Grand Canyon-sized chasm. As I wrote this week, age has emerged as the single most important dividing line in the struggle between Sanders and Clinton.

In the Iowa entrance poll (which questions voters on the way into a caucus, rather than on their way out the door, like “exit polls” in primaries) Sanders amassed astounding margins among young people. He crushed Clinton by an almost unimaginable six to one—84 percent to 14 percent—among voters younger than 30. For those tempted to dismiss that as just a campus craze, he also routed her by 58 percent to 37 percent among those aged 30 to 44.

But Clinton’s margins were almost as impressive among older voters: she beat Sanders 58 percent to 35 percent among those aged 45-64, and by 69 percent to 26 percent among seniors.

That’s an even wider age gap than Iowa produced in the 2008 contest between Clinton and Barack Obama. In that Iowa caucus, Clinton also was routed among younger voters, but Obama stayed more competitive than Sanders did among those older than 45. On both sides, John Edwards, as a strong third contender, also somewhat muted the contrasts. In 2008, Clinton ran 34 percentage points better among seniors than with those under 30; this week, the gap was 55 points.

Obama beat Clinton by 20 percentage points among voters younger than 30, while she beat him by 25 points among voters older than 65, according to a cumulative analysis of the results of all the exit polls in the 2008 Democratic primary conducted by ABC pollster Gary Langer. Voters in the middle-aged groups divided more narrowly: Obama carried those aged 30-44 by 11 points, and Clinton carried the near retirement generation (45 to 64) by seven, according to Langer’s analysis.

But when it comes to piling up votes, one of these demographic advantages is much more useful than the other. Across all of the 2008 contests, according to Langer’s calculations, voters older than 45 cast fully 61 percent of Democratic votes, while those younger than 45 cast 39 percent. That’s an advantage for Clinton. And it’s a slightly worrisome note for Sanders—a cloud passing on an otherwise sunny day—that young voters cast a slightly smaller share of the total Iowa Democratic vote in 2016 than 2008.

Still, Sanders’s overwhelming margins among Iowa’s younger voters—which exceeded even Obama’s 2008 showing—affirmatively answered the first critical question for the Vermont senator’s campaign: Would the connection with young voters evident at his rallies translate to the ballot box?

An interesting hypothesis emerges: when young voters turn out, especially at record levels, far-left radicalism prevails in the outcomes.

As always, I expect Hillary to win the nomination, but it's an extremely much more interesting contest than it was looking to be in mid-2015, when most people --- once again --- expected Clinton to waltz to the nomination.

Thank goodness for Bernie for making it a race.

Still more (via Memeorandum).

Jackie Johnson's Warming Weather Forecast

Once again, here's Jackie!

Via CBS News 2 Los Angeles:

Latest New Hampshire Republican Poll Shows Donald Trump with 24-Point Lead Over Ted Cruz

The poll's out from UMass Lowell, "Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Trump Leads GOP, Cruz and Rubio."

It's interesting. Trump lost two percentage points to Cruz overnight following the Iowa caucuses, but still hold a huge double-digit lead. And as I reported earlier, he's back in vintage form along the campaign trail.

Here, "Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Trump Leads GOP, Cruz and Rubio":

Trump-38 Cruz-14 Rubio-10 Kasich-9 Bush-9 Christie-5... in Day 2 of our @UML_CPO @7News #FITN tracking poll https://t.co/8rcR1nQnty

— UML Public Opinion (@UML_CPO) February 2, 2016

Donald Trump, at 38 percent support among likely voters, continues to lead all candidates in the Republican primary, but 44 percent of Republicans polled reported that they could still change their mind before Feb. 9. Voters who support Trump remain the most sure of their choice at 69 percent, but this is down from 72 percent in yesterday’s tracking poll results. Support for other GOP candidates is less firm with half or more of voters who favor candidates including Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Rand Paul saying they could change their minds.

The GOP field also saw some movement since yesterday, with Trump’s nearest rivals Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio each gaining two points among likely Republican primary voters polled. Cruz, who won yesterday’s Iowa caucus, is at 14 percent and Rubio is at 10 percent. John Kasich and Jeb Bush are tied at 9 percent, Chris Christie is at 5 percent, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina at 3 percent and Rand Paul at 2 percent. Mike Huckabee, who has suspended his campaign, had zero percent among voters polled...

From the poll highlights:

Trump is the frontrunner in a race without a clear challenger. Cruz takes 12% of the vote, while former governors John Kasich and Jeb Bush take 9% each, Senator Marco Rubio takes 8%, while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie gets the support of 7% of likely voters. No other candidate is above 3% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee did not receive support (zero) from any Republican likely voters surveyed. Trump’s voters are the most certain, with 72% saying that their votes are definite, while 28% say that they “could change their mind.” For candidates like Bush and Rubio, majorities (59% and 57%, respectively) say they could change their mind.

Trump’s support is strongest among men and those with lower levels of education. Those whose highest level of education is a high school diploma (and below) support Trump at 46%,compared to those with a post graduate degree who support Trump at only 18%. Interestingly, Trump’s support is consistent across income levels, between Independents and Republicans and between Moderates and Conservatives. In fact, the only demographic category in which another candidate is preferred to Trump is among those who we identified as being very religious (attend church at least once a week and view scriptures as without any flaws). The most religious voters apparently prefer Ted Cruz to Trump, albeit by a narrow and not statistically significant margin, 7% to 24%.

Also, "UMass Lowell/7News: Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Voters Release 1."

How Ted Cruz Engineered His Iowa Triumph

I meant to post this piece from Sasha Issenberg earlier.

He's so extremely good, at Bloomberg.

And buy his book, The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns.

Swagger, Curses, and Confidence: Donald Trump Returns to Form in New Hampshire (VIDEO)

Was there ever any doubt?

Following-up from earlier, "Donald Trump Lashes Out at Iowa Voters and Media."

At the Washington Post, "In a return to New Hampshire, Donald Trump returns to form":

Donald Trump seems to be back to his old self in New Hampshire tonight. He has the stage all to himself and has much more energy.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

On foreign policy issues, Donald Trump says: "Wouldn't you rather to have Trump as president?"

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Number of times tonight Donald Trump has promised to "beat the shit" out of Islamic State terrorists: Two.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Donald Trump accuses Ted Cruz's campaign of telling Iowa voters that Ben Carson was dropping out of the race -- which has yet to happen.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Donald Trump takes a break from talking about campaign spending to point at reporters, glare and say: "Dishonest people!"

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

Donald Trump shout-out to Ann Coulter: "Where is our Ann? Where is our Ann? ... Stand up, Ann. Oh, she is standing up."

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

After a weekend of back-to-back rallies that were barely 40 minutes long each,Trump filled a full 55 minutes in New Hampshire tonight.

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 3, 2016

MILFORD, N.H. — Donald Trump returned to New Hampshire on Tuesday night with the stakes as high as ever for his presidential campaign, determined to showcase his political resilience after his second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses and rouse his supporters with a rally that was a raucous return to form.

There was swagger, curses and confidence, and thousands of people packed into an athletic center, all bundled up in winter coats and many toting signs.

Speaking for more than 55 minutes, Trump revived the talking points that have defined his campaign: He slammed former Florida governor Jeb Bush. He promised to crack down on illegal immigration, build a wall on the border and bring back jobs from overseas. He criticized career politicians and accused them of selling their influence.

And the crowd roared when he cursed as he pledged to aggressively target Islamic State terrorists. "If we are attacked, somebody attacks us, wouldn't you rather have Trump as president if we're attacked?" he asked. "We'll beat the [expletive] out of them."

But first came a little reflection — and a few digs at the pundits who have described the Iowa victory by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) as a humbling and disappointing moment for the mogul...

More.

WATCH: Rachel Maddow Gets Orgasmic Discussing Socialist Bernie Sanders' 'Big Victory' in Iowa (VIDEO)

She's practically creaming all over the set.

Watch, "Rachel Maddow: Tonight's Iowa result against Clinton 'is such a big victory for Bernie Sanders'."

High Expectations as Campaigns Move Toward the New Hampshire Primaries (VIDEO

Judy Woodruff has an interesting segment with USA Today's Susan Page and Morning Consult's Reid Wilson.

Watch, "What candidates need to do going into the New Hampshire primaries."

Rush Limbaugh Defends Marco Rubio as Full-Throated Conservative and Ronald Reagan Disciple (AUDIO)

Via Hot Air, "Rush Limbaugh: Marco Rubio is a legitimate full-throated conservative and a disciple of Ronald Reagan."

And listen, "Rush Limbaugh: Marco Rubio "a legitimate full-throated conservative."

More at that Hot Air link above.

And earlier, "Marco Rubio in New Hampshire: 'We need to unify the conservative movement...' (VIDEO)."

Donald Trump Lashes Out at Iowa Voters and Media

He was completely magnanimous in yesterday's concession speech, but we're seeing a new tone today. Trump was off Twitter for much longer than usual, which I hope is a sign that he was getting some good, professional campaign advice.

He's moaning about how "self-funding" a campaign is extremely expensive, which it is, although most would argue that he went the cheapskate route in Iowa, at least in terms of voter mobilization. (I don't know if he ran much advertising over the local airwaves, but he's been hammered for skimping on data-driven ground mobilizing efforts from many quarters.)

In any case, NYT's got a burst of his tweets embedded here, "Donald Trump Lashes Out at Iowa Voters and Media."

Expect updates...

Marco Rubio in New Hampshire: 'We need to unify the conservative movement...' (VIDEO)

Well, I doubt he can "unify" the conservative movement, although he'll be able to rally the GOPe behind him.

From WMUR News 9 in Manchester, New Hampshire:

Bernie Sanders: 'We will be in contact with the party tomorrow...' (VIDEO)

Here's Bernie reacting to the results last night, via CNN.



And previously, "The System's Rigged! Bernie Sanders Campaign Calls for Review of Vote Count in Iowa Caucuses."

The System's Rigged! Bernie Sanders Campaign Calls for Review of Vote Count in Iowa Caucuses

From Jennifer Jacobs, at the Des Moines Register, "Iowa's nightmare revisited: Was correct winner called?":

It's Iowa's nightmare scenario revisited: An extraordinarily close count in the Iowa caucuses — and reports of chaos in precincts, website glitches and coin flips to decide county delegates — are raising questions about accuracy of the count and winner.

This time it's the Democrats, not the Republicans.

Even as Hillary Clinton trumpeted her Iowa win in New Hampshire on Tuesday, aides for Bernie Sanders said the eyelash-thin margin raised questions and called for a review. The chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party rejected that notion, saying the results are final.

The situation echoes the events on the Republican side in the 2012 caucuses, when one winner (Mitt Romney, by eight votes) was named on caucus night, but a closer examination of the paperwork that reflected the head counts showed someone else pulled in more votes (Rick Santorum, by 34 votes). But some precincts were still missing entirely.

Like Republican Party officials in 2012, Democratic Party officials worked into the early morning on caucus night trying to account for results from a handful of tardy precincts.

At 2:30 a.m. Tuesday, Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Andy McGuire announced that Clinton had eked out a slim victory, based on results from 1,682 of 1,683 precincts.

Voters from the final missing Democratic precinct tracked down party officials Tuesday morning to report their results. Sanders won that precinct, Des Moines precinct No. 42, by two delegate equivalents over Clinton.

The Iowa Democratic Party said the updated final tally of delegate equivalents for all the precincts statewide was:

Clinton: 700.59

Sanders: 696.82.

That's a 3.77-count margin between Clinton, the powerful establishment favorite who early on in the Democratic race was expected to win in a virtual coronation, and Sanders, a democratic socialist who few in Iowa knew much about a year ago.

Sanders campaign aides told the Register they've found some discrepancies between tallies at the precinct level and numbers that were reported to the state party. The Iowa Democratic Party determines its winner based not on a head count, like in the Republican caucuses, but on state delegate equivalents, tied to a math formula. And there was enough confusion, and untrained volunteers on Monday night, that errors may have been made...

Keep reading.

Remember, Pat Caddell warned that the Democrats will never release the raw vote totals, because they'd show the Bernie won the popular voted. The system is rigged!

Plus, more from Ms. Jacobs:

Results from the 1 missing Dem precinct: Sanders won by 2.
But voters can't find any party officials to report to. https://t.co/jB0sDxd3oZ

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 2, 2016

BREAKING: Sanders won 7, Clinton 5 in final missing precinct, chair tells me.
Did Sanders win popular vote in Iowa? https://t.co/jB0sDxd3oZ

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 2, 2016

With missing results, Clinton's excruciatingly close lead narrows. Voters report "chaos" and untrained volunteers. https://t.co/jB0sDxd3oZ

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 2, 2016

The missing Democratic votes are now logged, making the score in the Iowa caucuses:
Clinton: 699.57
Sanders: 697.77#iacaucus

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 2, 2016

Sanders voters: Will @iowademocrats show raw body count? Re-examine precinct paperwork? (This is CLOSER than when GOP got 2012 winner wrong)

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 2, 2016

Marco Rubio Was Expected to Come in Third in Iowa: That's a Bronze No Matter How You Spin It; It Ain't Never Gonna Be a Gold (VIDEO)

From Amanda Carpenter, "The Real Story Coming Out of the Iowa Caucuses":

To listen to a number of folks in the media, Marco Rubio’s third place finish in Iowa is just as good as finishing first. But bronze, no matter how you polish and spin it, ain’t never gonna be gold.

Rubio was always expected to come in third, as evidenced by the fact that his own campaign was promoting their “3-2-1” strategy to the media only a few weeks ago. Meaning they hoped to place third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and first in South Carolina.

No matter. The real story isn’t the brainwashing prowess of Rubio’s communications team; the real story is that Cruz beat him with record turnout, something that was supposed to favor Donald Trump, and Rubio is nipping at Trump’s heels having finished one percent behind him.  And it’s worth repeating: Cruz won more Iowa votes than any other Republican in history. In history.

And this isn’t your daddy’s Iowa caucus, either...

Keep reading.

What Do Men Value More — Intelligence, or Large Breasts?

Heh.

At Instapundit, "I SAY, EMBRACE THE MAGICAL POWER OF 'AND'."

LATEST: LaVoy Finicum Investigation Expected to Take 4-to-6 Weeks (VIDEO)

Following-up, "LATEST: #Malheur Holdout David Fry Says Occupation at Wildlife Refuge is 'Civil Disobedience'." And here, "Ammon Bundy's Attorneys Withdraw Release Request for Release from Custody (VIDEO)."

Also, "'If You're Gonna Shoot, Just Shoot Me'! Victoria Sharp Says LaVoy Finicum Unjustly 'Gunned Down' by LEOs (VIDEO)."

Now, at the Portland Oregonian, "Investigation into death of Oregon standoff spokesman LaVoy Finicum expected to take 4 to 6 weeks":

Investigators said Tuesday they will release no information on the shooting death of Oregon standoff spokesman Robert "LaVoy" Finicum until their work is complete – probably not for another four to six weeks.

The FBI have confirmed that Oregon State Police troopers shot Finicum a week ago at a roadblock along U.S. 395 about 20 miles north of Burns while he and other key figures in the occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge were traveling to another county for a community meeting.

Finicum reached at least twice toward a jacket pocket that later was found to contain a 9mm handgun, the FBI said in a statement last week. The agency released aerial video of the shooting, but the grainy long-distance images and lack of audio have fueled debate about what it shows.

The Deschutes County Sheriff's Office is leading the investigation into the shooting with help from Bend and Redmond police and state police stationed in Deschutes County.

Expect updates...

Deal of the Day: Logitech Multimedia Speakers Z200 with Stereo Sound

At Amazon, Logitech Multimedia Speakers Z200 with Stereo Sound for Multiple Devices, Black.

Also, from Barry Goldwater, The Conscience of a Conservative.

And F. A. Hayek, The Road to Serfdom: Text and Documents - The Definitive Edition.

BONUS: From Matt Lewis, Too Dumb to Fail: How the GOP Betrayed the Reagan Revolution to Win Elections (and How It Can Reclaim Its Conservative Roots).

'If You're Gonna Shoot, Just Shoot Me'! Victoria Sharp Says LaVoy Finicum Unjustly 'Gunned Down' by LEOs (VIDEO)

The latest developments are here, "LATEST: #Malheur Holdout David Fry Says Occupation at Wildlife Refuge is 'Civil Disobedience'." And here, "Ammon Bundy's Attorneys Withdraw Release Request for Release from Custody (VIDEO)."

Ms. Sharp's covered previously here, "#Malheur Occupier Victoria Sharp Says LaVoy Finicum Had 'Hands Up' Before Police Opened Fire (AUDIO)."

And she's out now with additional statements in a new CNN interview, "Woman says she was feet away when shots killed Oregon occupier Finicum."

And stay with the interview all the way to the end. Sharp says that "If I lose my life for the future of America, it's worth it."

(CNN) Victoria Sharp says she is certain LaVoy Finicum was unjustly gunned down by state police after they and the FBI pursued his vehicle in southern Oregon.

"I was just a few feet away in the truck," she insisted to CNN. "I know what I saw."

Sharp, 18, claims she was one of three people in the back seat of a white truck driven by Finicum, one of the armed occupiers at Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. Sharp says she and seven siblings went to the occupation site recently to sing Christian songs and provide "moral support for the protest of the federal government."

They left the refuge near Burns last Tuesday for a community meeting in another town. The FBI said it had information that Finicum and the others in two vehicles were armed.

Finicum pulled away from an attempt to arrest him and Ammon Bundy, the leader of the nearly four-week occupation. A dramatic chase down tree-lined U.S. 395 ensued. As shown on an FBI video taken from a pursuing helicopter, it ends when Finicum swerves to miss a roadblock, nearly hitting an officer and plowing into deep snow.

The driver quickly exits the video with hands in the air....

Sharp said Thursday that as soon as the vehicle hit the snow bank, she heard shots hit the truck. It's not clear on the video whether any rounds were hitting the vehicle.

"He had his hands up," Sharp said. "He was shouting that if they were going to shoot, then just shoot him. I remember him saying that if they shoot him, it's an innocent man's blood on their hands."

As seen on the FBI video, Finicum reaches twice toward a jacket pocket. Officers fire. Finicum falls to the ground. The FBI said it recovered a loaded 9mm semiautomatic handgun in that left side pocket of his jacket.

Sharp said she heard three shots and saw Finicum fall. "He wasn't doing anything aggressive, anything," she insisted. "He was just walking with his hands up."

When asked whether Finicum reached for a weapon, Sharp said, "He was not showing any signs of aggression."

Check back here for all the breaking coverage...

Cindy Crawford Announces Retirement from Modeling

She's making the announcement as she nears 50-years-old.

There's a little disagreement as to if she's confirmed the announcement, at People, "Cindy Crawford on Retiring from Modeling: 'I'm Not Making Any Final Statements'."

Also at London's Daily Mail, "'I don't want to keep proving myself': Cindy Crawford announces she is retiring from modelling after 50th birthday."

More at the Sun UK, "‘I can’t thin and bear it’: Supermodel Cindy Crawford slams skinny models as she hangs up her heels at 50."

She's totally hot, and has been a staple of Rule 5 blogging here for some time.

More on Twitter:

Headlines don't always tell the whole story. Thanks for the love everyone — but more here: https://t.co/ggsyhyAZCj pic.twitter.com/UONuOh78jH

— Cindy Crawford (@CindyCrawford) February 1, 2016

I Stayed Up 24 Hours Yesterday to Cover the Iowa Caucuses and the Oregon Standoff

I was tired on Sunday night from my continuous blog coverage of all the political developments, and I fell asleep around 9:00pm. When I woke up around 1:00 on Monday morning is was caucus day and I got up and made some coffee. I took my son to school at the regular time and was going to come home and fall back asleep for awhile. I shut my eyes and muted the television, but never really dozed off. So I got back up and started back up with my blog coverage.

Call me crazy.

Blogging's the best way for me to keep up with all the news, which is good for my teaching, which is actually my day job, lol. In fact, the spring semester starts back up next Monday, and I'm excited and ready to go. I love teaching the most during campaign time, because each day brings lots of new stories and developments. It makes for a lot of fun and engagement in the classroom, and it helps me motivate these young people --- sometimes derided as the "Dumbest Generation," not without good cause --- into voting citizens who take their rights and responsibilities seriously. It's actually an honor to do so. It's important work although the feedback is often long in coming. I don't care about that too much. I get to have the dream job of teaching politics, which is more than any political junkie could ask for.

I don't put out a shingle asking for donations. I do this for fun. But if you'd like to support me you can always do your books shopping through my Amazon links (or any other shopping for that matter).

Thanks for reading.

I had on CNN mostly yesterday, only because I've always thought they have the best election coverage. But Fox News is good too. I don't even know what MSNBC's doing, other than when I check out their YouTube page.

Anyway, stay with me!

LATEST: #Malheur Holdout David Fry Says Occupation at Wildlife Refuge is 'Civil Disobedience'

Following-up from earlier, "Ammon Bundy's Attorneys Withdraw Release Request for Release from Custody (VIDEO)." Here's an update from developments out on the range.

From Molly Young, at the Portland Oregonian, "Oregon standoff holdout David Fry says: 'This is the time to break the law'":

Some highlights: David Fry's parents call in, his father tells him he's proud of him. (1/3) #OregonStandoff

— Molly Young (@mollykyoung) February 2, 2016

One caller asks if they're keeping warm. Fry says yes, they're eating vegetables, hamburgers and staying by the fire. (2/3) #OregonStandoff

— Molly Young (@mollykyoung) February 2, 2016

Fry concedes the refuge occupation is technically breaking the law. He calls it "civil disobedience." (3/3) #OregonStandoff

— Molly Young (@mollykyoung) February 2, 2016

It's an 8 deg morning in Harney County. If the final 4 are really camping, brrr. #Oregonstandoff pic.twitter.com/XjcSn4mpHo

— Amanda Peacher (@amandapeacher) February 2, 2016

Today is like yesterday, which was much like the day before. 4 occupiers remain. It's cold outside. #HappyGroundhogDay

— Amanda Peacher (@amandapeacher) February 2, 2016

BURNS -- The final occupiers of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge are still holding out for a miracle and taking all the prayers they can get.

FBI officials confirmed the armed occupation continued Tuesday, its 32nd day.

Jailed occupation leader Ammon Bundy issued another statement asking the four holdouts to "go home now so their lives are not taken."

He signaled what he wants to happen next: Have the FBI and Oregon State Police leave Harney County so the county sheriff can "cordon off the refuge" as local residents decide what to do with the land, he said.

Local leaders have responded in the past to similar demands by Bundy with silence or an oft-repeated request for him to abandon the standoff and return home.

In the meantime, the remaining occupiers are staying warm by gathering around a fire and eating hamburgers and vegetables...

Keep reading.

And check back for updates. These people can't holdout forever, and things might get crazy, although hopefully not tragic.

Local Musician Nicki Carano Identified as Woman Killed by Massive Tree in San Diego Storm (VIDEO)

Following-up from yesterday, "Fierce Storm Hits San Diego; One Person Killed When Tree Falls on Car (VIDEO)."

That's completely freak. She was just driving down the street, minding her own business. You never know when your number's up.

At ABC 10 News San Diego:

Laura Ingraham Says Donald Trump/Ted Cruz 'Death Cage Struggle' Gives New Hampshire to Marco Rubio (VIDEO)

Heh.

I love the "death cage' analogy.

Watch, via Fox News:

Iowa Caucuses Record Turnout (VIDEO)

At the Des Moines Register, "Caucus turnout: Robust, record-setting and surprising."

And watch, Bill Hemmer speaks to Register political columnist Kathie Obradovich, "Record Turnout at Last Night's Iowa Republican Caucuses."

Ronda Rousey Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Body Paint Photos

At Maxim, "MORE NUDE PHOTOS FROM RONDA ROUSEY'S 'SPORTS ILLUSTRATED' SHOOT JUST LEAKED."

And watch, at TMZ, "Ronda Rousey Gets Racy."

Salvage Team Boards Stricken Cargo Ship Modern Express, Drifting Off the Coast of France (VIDEO)

Via Euronews:

Melissa Francis: 'C'mon Donald!' Iowa Caucuses: Trump Didn't Spend Enough Money (VIDEO)

Watch the Outnumbered analysis featuring Rich Lowry and Andrea Tantaros.

Toward the end of the clip Melissa Frances jumps in with some numbers, comparing the Cruz campaign's big expenditures to the billionaire's tight-fisted failures in the Hawkeye State.

Via Fox News:



PREVIOUSLY: "Donald Trump's the Biggest Loser Coming Out of Iowa (VIDEO)."

Ammon Bundy's Attorneys Withdraw Release Request for Release from Custody (VIDEO)

CNN has a report, "Oregon standoff leader Ammon Bundy withdraws request for release":

(CNN)Ammon Bundy, the rancher who led an armed occupation of a federal wildlife refuge in Oregon, abruptly reversed course Tuesday and withdrew a request to be released from custody as he awaits trial on a felony conspiracy charge, court papers showed.

Bundy had initially been scheduled Tuesday to ask a federal judge in Oregon to release him on electronic GPS surveillance, his attorney Mike Arnold said.

But now Bundy will resubmit that request at a later time, his attorneys said in court papers. He will stay incarcerated "to gather further evidence of his statements and actions encouraging a peaceful protest and civil disobedience," court documents said.

Bundy eventually plans to challenge U.S. Magistrate Judge Stacie Beckerman's order to keep him in custody pending the trial, according to court documents.

Bundy's attorneys have indicated they ultimately plan to argue in U.S. District Court that their client should be permitted to stay at his home in Idaho and only return to Oregon for court appearances. The federal court system's pretrial services earlier recommended Bundy's conditional release, according to court papers filed by Bundy's attorneys...

And at KOIN News 6 Portland, "Bundy withdraws release appeal before hearing: Motion withdrew, lawyers say will revisit later."

Watch:



PREVIOUSLY: "Tense Standoff Between Rival Lavoy Finicum Protesters at Harney County Courthouse, Burns, Oregon (VIDEO)."

Tense Standoff Between Rival Lavoy Finicum Protesters at Harney County Courthouse, Burns, Oregon (VIDEO)

Following up from yesterday, "'Hands Up Don't Shoot'! — Dueling LaVoy Finicum Protests at Harney County Courthouse in Burns, Oregon."

Watch, here's Jennifer Dowling, for KOIN News 6 Portland:

Bernie Sanders' Barnburner Victory Speech at the Iowa Caucuses (VIDEO)

Of all the results last night, I got the biggest kick out of Bernie Sanders.

I'd never vote for him. But I love --- and I mean I just love --- how he's taking it to Hillary Clinton like a brick upside her head.

Pat Caddell was on Sean Hannity's earlier and he claimed that Sanders most likely won the popular vote in Iowa --- the 49.9 to 49.6 percent vote totals being reported are based on the shares of the delegate counts --- but that the Democrat National Committee won't release popular vote data, lest they give Sanders added momentum and legitimacy headed into New Hampshire.

One thing you might have noticed is that Sanders is an extremely disciplined campaigner. He doesn't deviate much from his standard stump speech, but nevertheless captivates voters at every stop. He's hammering on the issues of economic insecurity and economic inequality like no other candidate, and he's shameless in his robust embrace of hard-left ideological attacks on the corporate rich, the billionaires, and the "1 percent." These themes are the more focused priorities that far-left progressives have hoped the Obama administration would push for, and they want the next Democrat administration to be even more radical in seeking to level the playing field in the American economy and dismantle the free-market infrastructure. In plain language, they see Sanders as their agent of "more free stuff." I can see why young, idealistic Millennials have placed so much stock in him.

In any case, I hate the politics, but his populist appeal and cornered-bull tenacity are extremely compelling. Hillary Clinton is looking at a repeat of 2008, and it's gotta be ugly from her perspective. Once again, she got taken to the cleaners by a far-left candidate that came virtually out of nowhere. Yeah, she "breathed a sigh of relief" that she tied and wasn't blown out of the water, but Sanders beat expectations, big time.

In any case, watch his ball-busting speech below

And see the Los Angeles Times, "Sanders campaign manager predicts 'a tremendous bounce'":

The man behind Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign on Monday night said he expects "a tremendous bounce" out of Iowa after the Vermont senator found himself locked in a race there with Hillary Clinton that was too close to call.

“An early success gives your candidate and your campaign credibility to future voters," said Sanders' campaign manager Jeff Weaver. He said he was looking forward to taking the campaign to New Hampshire "where the senator is very, very popular." Sanders is ahead in many polls there.

Although the Iowa race was virtually tied Monday night, Sanders and his supporters looked and sounded like they were celebrating a victory.

In a speech to a jubilant crowd in the ballroom of a Des Moines hotel, Sanders said the Iowa results signaled the beginning of "a political revolution.”

"Nine months ago we came to this beautiful state," Sanders said. "We had no political organization, we had no money, no name recognition. And we were taking on the most powerful political organization in the United States of America."

Sanders, who had to catch a plane to New Hampshire, stuck close to his stump speech, vowing to fight for more equality and to create "an economy that works for working families, not just the billionaire class."

Watch:



The full speech is here (but turn down your volume), "Watch Bernie Sanders' full speech after Iowa caucuses."

Karlina Caune for Elle France

At Egotastic!, "KARLINA CAUNE TOPLESS TEASE FOR ELLE FRANCE."

Also, at Vogue, "Meet Karlina Caune, the World’s Toughest Model."

She's tough!

What to Expect Heading Into the New Hampshire Primary (VIDEO)

Be sure to stay with the entire Charles Krauthammer segment at the clip. I only disagree with him on Hillary Clinton, who I think took a shellacking by coming in a virtual tie with Bernie Sanders (and where Dr. K claims she won the state, only to be corrected by Megyn Kelly).

Other than that, it's an outstanding analysis.

And see also, at the Washington Post, "Here’s what to expect in the New Hampshire Republican primary":

CONCORD, N.H. — Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in Iowa on Monday night, but he faces a strikingly different set of challenges in trying to replicate that victory in New Hampshire’s primary next week. He has a lesser organization here, has spent less time here, and can’t count on such a large evangelical electorate.

History provides a clear warning. In 2008 and 2012, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won the Iowa Republican caucuses with heavy support from evangelicals. Both then arrived here lacking a strong organization, lost this state, and failed to become the GOP nominees.

With the Republican Party’s focus on Iowa now complete, the spotlight on ethanol and evangelicals is out. Now begins an eight-day sprint that in many ways will be entirely different because New Hampshire’s voters reflect a very different side of the GOP. They’re socially moderate and fiscally frugal, and use a primary voting system that allows greater participation by independent-minded voters who revel in upsetting the conventional wisdom.

It’s why a handful of GOP “establishment” candidates who did poorly in Iowa think they’ll perform better here.

“New Hampshire voters reset elections. That’s what you all do. … The reset starts here tonight,” former Florida governor Jeb Bush defiantly told about 300 supporters at Manchester’s Alpine Club on Monday night.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie told a crowd in Hopkinton Monday night that Iowa “has passed the ball to you.” The field would soon be thinned. “You all,” he said, “are going to decide it.”

Ohio Gov. John Kasich told an audience of about 200 at the Bow Elementary School on Sunday that “You come here, and you look and you poke, once in a while you smell and you try to decide, is this our leader? Whether I win or not, I believe in this process. I believe that folks in New Hampshire are the best screeners that America can have to recommend to the country.”

Wayne Lesperance, a professor of political science at New England College in Henniker, N.H., said that “New Hampshire has gone differently than Iowa in six of the last nine elections on the Republican side, so the idea that one follows the other’s lead just doesn’t bear out.”

And yet, Iowa and New Hampshire share more in common this cycle, thanks to Donald Trump. He has held a double-digit lead over his GOP opponents here for more than 30 weeks and dominates the headlines — just as he did in Iowa before losing to Cruz there on Monday...

Trump's up 25 points in the recent Franklin-Pierce/Boston Globe poll, and we'll see new surveys out this week, perhaps as soon as later today. Both Cruz and Rubio will get a boost in the Granite state coming out of Iowa, but not that much and Trump can mitigate any potential decline by doing what he always does: making some news.

Most of all, though, he needs to keep up with the gracious tone he displayed in his Iowa concession, and he needs to talk policy. And importantly, Trump can't blow off the voters. He can't take them for granted, acting with epic hubris and skipping debates, or what not.

John McCain didn't even contest Iowa in 2008, and he won New Hampshire after a long slog through the state on a shoestring. Keep your eyes on Trump and Rubio this week. For some reason I don't expect Cruz's longhorn Texas style to play as well up in the Northeast.

In any case, more at the link.

Jackie Johnson's Hot Red Tuesday Forecast

Can't forget to blog the lovely Jackie!

Via CBS News 2 Los Angeles:

Donald Trump's the Biggest Loser Coming Out of Iowa (VIDEO)

Yeah, well, I said as much earlier, although the campaign's just beginning now.

And frankly, he gave a classy concession speech, which I'm just now seeing, since CNN was running with somebody, I think Hillary, at the time.

As far as expectations go, he's definitely taken a beating. The sign of a winner, though, is how well they take defeat, with sportsmanship or bitterness. The Donald's gonna be fine. He needs to be on the ground campaigning in New Hampshire first thing in the morning.

In any case, at U.S. News and World Report, "In Iowa, the Emperor Has No Clothes":

The day has arrived. GOP front-runner Donald Trump, the self-proclaimed consummate winner, is now officially a loser, placing second in the Iowa caucuses behind Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

Trump lost despite polling nearly five points ahead of Cruz and the other GOP candidates. He could taste the victory. "Unless I win," Trump said Sunday, "I would consider this a big, fat, beautiful – and, by the way, a very expensive – waste of time. … If I don't win, maybe bad things will happen."

In contrast, a noticeably subdued Trump whitewashed his loss when he took the stage after the caucus, simply encouraging supporters to look forward to the future. "New Hampshire – we love New Hampshire. We love South Carolina." Rather than castigating the people of Iowa, as many expected (and as he's done before), Trump spun the loss as beating expectations: "I absolutely love the people of Iowa. … I was told by everybody, 'Do not go to Iowa. You cannot finish even in the top 10.' "

But overall, Trump's entire campaign has been predicated on his being a winner. And as Talking Point Memo's Josh Marshall summarized, "If you're a 'winner', if you're the alpha, you have to win."

Keep reading.

Anti-Establishment Caucuses, With Unexpected Winners

Here's Susan Page, at USA Today, "Big night for the anti-establishment candidates":

It was a big night in Iowa Monday for anti-establishment candidates — just not always the one who expected it.

A Republican race that seemed to be heading toward a romp to the nomination by billionaire businessman Donald Trump suddenly has turned into a fierce and more extended battle: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the opening contest of the 2016 campaign, and Trump only narrowly managed to finish ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

In the Democratic race, a hairs-breadth divided former secretary of State Hillary Clinton and challenger Bernie Sanders, a stronger showing by the Vermont senator than seemed possible just a few weeks ago. While Clinton did better than her humiliating third-place showing here in 2008, it means that she once again heads to the New Hampshire primary with something to prove.

In speeches to supporters as the results came in, Clinton declared that she was "breathing a big sigh of relief" but acknowledged that she now faced "really getting into the debate" with Sanders about the country's best course forward. Sanders said to cheers that he had taken on "the most powerful political organization in America" and fought them to "a virtual tie." Trump, speaking with unusual brevity, insisted that he "loved" Iowa and might be back one day to buy a farm.

And Cruz, like Trump a candidate viewed with suspicion by the Republican establishment, declared to cheers, "God bless the great state of Iowa."

The polls were proven wrong: Trump had led in the last dozen statewide surveys.

Keep reading.

Jeb Bush Heckled at Iowa Rally Featuring Paid Seat-Fillers; Scores 6th Place at 2.8 Percent (VIDEO)

At New York Magazine, "Jeb Bush’s Last Rally in Iowa Weighed Down by Dated Conservatism and Reports of Paid Chair-Fillers":

The vibe at Jeb Bush’s downtown Des Moines caucus “briefing” Monday afternoon is upbeat and upscale — but it's taking place under the shadow of reports circulating in the right-wing media that the campaign is paying an army of “seat fillers” $25 an hour to make this rally look full. Paid or unpaid, the attendees are more Young Republican than the Baptist-camp-meeting look that prevailed at the Mike Huckabee rally I attended Sunday.

The caucus results are here, "Republican Iowa GOP Caucus Results 2016." Bush didn't even clear 3 percent.

Watch:

How Ted Cruz Pulled Off Victory in the Iowa Caucuses (VIDEO)

From Philip Bump and Scott Clement , at the Washington Post, "How Ted Cruz won Iowa":

Powered by enormous support from very conservative voters, Ted Cruz surged past expectations to capture a victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday night.

Cruz earned the support of 4 in 10 “very conservative” voters in the state, a group which made up 40 percent of the electorate according to preliminary entrance poll data. Cruz was also backed by 1 out of every 3 evangelical voters -- an important victory in a group that was nearly two-thirds of the electorate.

Donald Trump may have been hampered by two unexpected factors: Weaker than expected performance among new voters and a late surge by Marco Rubio. In the last Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll in Iowa, Trump led Cruz among first-time caucus-goers by 16 points. On Monday night, Trump’s margin among this group was closer to half that.

Rubio earned about as much support from new voters as did Cruz. and was the preferred candidate of about 3 in 10 Iowa Republicans who made up their minds in the last week.

TRUMP FADES WHILE RUBIO CLOSES STRONG

Nearly half of Republican caucus-goers report making their final decision in the week before the caucuses, and the entrance poll shows Rubio performed best among this group. Nearly 3 in 10 of final-week deciders supported Rubio; he garnered about as much support among those deciding in January, but only about 1 in 10 of those who decided earlier than that backed Rubio.

Equally stark was Trump’s weakness among late-deciding voters. Just 14 percent of Republicans who decided in the final week supported Trump, compared with 23 percent of those who decided earlier in January and 40 percent who made their decision in December or earlier.

LARGE EVANGELICAL TURNOUT

Cruz leads among evangelical Christians, who made up over 6 in 10 Republican caucus-goers, their largest share of the vote in recent cycles. Cruz garnered about one-third of the evangelical vote, compared with just over 2 in 10 each for Rubio and Trump. Trump’s margin was similar among non-evangelical Republicans, though they made up fewer than 4 in 10 caucus-goers, lower than 2012 or 2008...

Yes, Rubio did do extremely well, and sucked the air out of Trump's momentum.

But the night really does belong to Ted Cruz. It's impressive, especially considering how he's been taking it from all sides all week, and then proved 'em all wrong.

Donald Trump's a big loser, but he's far from out. This is fantastic because it makes New Hampshire a week from tomorrow a real decision-making and game-changing contest.

Still more.

PREVIOUSLY: "Ted Cruz Beats Donald Trump in Iowa's GOP Caucuses."

No Hillary Clinton Validation! Iowa Democrat Caucuses Too Close to Call! (VIDEO)

Following-up, "Ted Cruz Beats Donald Trump in Iowa's GOP Caucuses."

It's too close to call on the Democrat side.

I'm sorry but a 50-50 race on Democratic side is not, if she wins, a Hillary win. This is a draw. The fight continues. No HRC validation.

— Peggy Noonan (@Peggynoonannyc) February 2, 2016

Expect updates. Hillary's giving her, er, concession speech right now...

Ted Cruz Beats Donald Trump in Iowa's GOP Caucuses

Our long national nightmare is over!

I had on CNN, which had Marco Rubio making a victory speech for his surging 3rd place finish (which is hella impressive). But I missed Donald Trump's concession speech (gonna have to find it on YouTube in a little bit).

Meanwhile, I've got Fox News on now, and we're awaiting Ted Cruz's victory speech. It's really major.

Here's Politico's banner headline, "CRUZ WINS IOWA":

The result is a blow to Donald Trump, whose candidacy is premised on his strength and ability to deliver wins.

More at Instapundit, "NBC CALLS IOWA FOR CRUZ. Trump and Rubio in a very close fight for 2d and 3d place."

Whoa! Possible Donald Trump could come in 3rd place! #RubioMentum! #IA #IACaucus #IowaCaucuses

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) February 2, 2016

Ben Carson Campaign 'Taking a Break' After Iowa Caucuses — UPDATE!

It's been a couple of hours ago now, but CNN's Dana Bash reported that Ben Carson plans to "take a break" after Iowa, to spend time with his family.

I tweeted.

Ben Carson's campaign may 'take a break' after #IowaCaucuses, per @DanaBashCNN. #Iowa

— Donald Douglas (@AmPowerBlog) February 2, 2016

And from Katie Packer:

Crappy thing to do the night of the caucuses. Crappy to his team, his supporters, the other candidates. Crappy. https://t.co/Ng72YPrsRR

— Katie Packer (@katiepack) February 2, 2016

More at iOTW Report, "Breaking: #BenCarson Will Not Travel to NH, SC in Weeks After Caucuses; Will Go Home Instead."

And at Politico, "Carson isn't quitting after Iowa. He's doing laundry."

Carson's backtracking, via Jennifer Jacobs:

"Contrary to false media reports, Dr. Ben Carson is not suspending his presidential campaign." #iacaucus pic.twitter.com/9Rm5pQXz1O

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) February 2, 2016

Donald Trump and the Revenge of the Blue Collars

From Laura Ingraham, at LifeZette, "Trump & the Revenge of the Blue Collars":

Mogul connects with frustrated middle class as GOP Establishment lashes out in desperation.

DES MOINES, Iowa — “I think they’re delusional,” said Sam Clovis, Donald Trump’s chief policy adviser and Iowa native, regarding his candidate’s persistent critics at National Review.

“This is absolutely a panic on the part of the Establishment of the Republican Party,” Clovis said.

Indeed, as it looks increasingly likely that the Trump train will steam through Iowa, straight through New Hampshire, South Carolina and on to the GOP nomination, “big government Republicans” are scrambling for relevancy.

Most of them simply refuse to recognize what has happened inside the Republican Party — a total disconnect with the concerns and desires of average Americans.

The main reason for the rise of the insurgent candidates in 2016 isn’t what many of the “experts” believe. It’s not that voters are just drawn to his celebrity or enjoy his insults to the high and mighty. It’s not just that they love his politically incorrect approach to the issues. It’s not just that they enjoy the “fun factor” at his rallies where kids are invited to run around his plane or get free helicopter rides.

The narrative of the GOP presidential primary is best understood by focusing on this one fact: For middle-wage earners in the U.S., the median income in 2014 was 4 percent lower than in 2000.

Pew Research released a report in December that painted a bleak, depressing picture of life for America’s working class. Both political parties — Republicans under George W. Bush, Democrats under Barack Obama — have presided over economies that have left them behind. Worse than that, both Bush and Obama advocated policies that made their economic lives worse in almost every way. And you bet they’re angry.

The rich have done fine. Not surprisingly, they weathered the past two recessions better than any other income group, says Pew. But the subset that suffered the most are some of Trump’s core supporters. Pew found that “adults with no more than a high school diploma lost the most ground economically.”

In other words, Bushism and Obamaism have failed them. The Establishment has failed them. And it was never clear how former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush would govern in a markedly different manner than his brother, given his support for more massive trade deals, more immigration, more wars. That formula has been poisonous to our native-born, middle-income workers.

Whether fair or not, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is seen by most of these same voters as a younger, more politically talented version of Jeb. And they aren’t willing to grant him amnesty for his 2013 immigration push with U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

According to a Gallup analysis of Republican and GOP-leaning independents late last year, Trump had a net favorable score of 36 points among men with no college education, compared to a score of 26 among college graduates. A report from the Public Religion Research Institute released in November also found that a majority — 55 percent — of white Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who support Trump identify as working class. In contrast, self-identified working-class whites only account for roughly a third of other candidates’ supporters.

“We’ve been waiting 30 years for somebody to come along and carry on the legacy of Ronald Reagan, and it hasn’t happened,” Clovis said emphatically.

Batting away his boss’s media assailers, he predicts major Trump victories...

Still more.

PREVIOUSLY: "Outsiders Benefit from Voters' Angst."

Burns, Oregon, Stays Warm and Welcoming as Circus of Outsiders Swarms Residents

Following-up on earlier entries, "LATEST: #Malheur Occupier David Fry Remains at Wildlife Refuge Along with Last Three Holdouts," and "'Hand Up Don't Shoot'! — Dueling LaVoy Finicum Protests at Harney County Courthouse in Burns, Oregon."

And now, at the New York Times, "An Unwanted Circus Descends, and an Oregon Town Strives to Stay Kind":

A circus prevails at the #MalheurRefuge occupation in #Oregon, but decency and kindness are holding their own too. https://t.co/UsTWwZXMsx

— Kirk Johnson (@kljohnso) February 1, 2016

BURNS, Ore. — Remote Western towns, in midwinter’s grip, definitely have some romance to them. But this one has become a circus tent: A giddy but tense crush of humanity has descended here in rural eastern Oregon, benefiting businesses and swamping them, filling bars, and making motel rooms unattainable amid a bizarre tide of guns, police, reporters and ideologues quoting (at length) from the United States Constitution.

That’s Burns.

There is no question things have been rough here. The armed occupation that began on Jan. 2 at the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge outside town has dragged on, and tensions heightened last week with the fatal shooting of one of the most visible occupiers, LaVoy Finicum, by Oregon State Police troopers in an arrest that went bad.

The place is just crazily overrun. Every motel room within 70 miles is taken. Barstools are packed at the Central Pastime Tavern, with journalists and armed antigovernment protesters elbow to elbow, tucking down I.P.A.s and perhaps — for braver souls — the bull testicles on the bar menu. Hard to know, but there are probably also undercover F.B.I. agents now and then playing pool in the back, trying to appear like locals in boots and jeans under the mounted bighorn sheep and buffalo heads.

Residents have argued with each other over what to think about the occupiers and their goals, and they have wounded one another in the process.

Anxieties could ratchet up again this week, with a protest planned for Monday at the Harney County courthouse by self-styled patriot groups angry about Mr. Finicum’s death. The United States Marshals Office also said Sunday that one of the 11 people arrested in the standoff — Shawna Cox — had been released, though the authorities would not provide other details. A judge had previously said Ms. Cox could not leave custody until the occupation had ended.

But here’s the thing: For the most part, Burns has not stopped being warm and welcoming to outsiders, even as that has become harder to do. If you were going to spend nearly the entire month of January in a town of about 2,000 people — isolated by distance in the high eastern Oregon desert, and often with bad weather to boot — you could do a lot worse.

“We just decided to be kind,” said Leah Planinz, who owns Glory Days Pizza with her husband, Nick. She was perhaps talking partly about her philosophy, but more specifically about the restaurant’s overstuffed brown leather couch in the back near the arcade room...

Keep reading.

PREVIOUSLY: "Burns, Oregon: Torn Apart by the Malheur Occupation," and "'Ambushed and Assassinated' — Residents in Burns, Oregon, React to Shooting Death of LaVoy Finicum."

'Hands Up Don't Shoot'! — Dueling LaVoy Finicum Protests at Harney County Courthouse in Burns, Oregon

Following-up from this morning, "LATEST: #Malheur Occupier David Fry Remains at Wildlife Refuge Along with Last Three Holdouts."

Via various sources on Twitter, some tense protesters and counter-protesters:

Statement by @HarneyCountyGov Judge Grasty on today's planned protests: pic.twitter.com/oxAO20yoEw

— Harney Cty. Sheriff (@HarneyCoSheriff) February 1, 2016

Protest at Harney County courthouse is a shouting match between locals yelling "go home" and Patriot movement types, many from out of state.

— julieturkewitz (@julieturkewitz) February 1, 2016

Interesting to see Patriot-movement folks using Black Lives Matter language to protest LaVoy's death. "Hands up, don't shoot," they yell.

— julieturkewitz (@julieturkewitz) February 1, 2016

Big sign posted on Harney Co Courthouse door ahead of protest reminding folks no weapons allowed inside #KOIN6News pic.twitter.com/TKU2oO8bDE

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

A ribbon was also tied around a lamp post ahead of today's planned gathering outside at around noon #KOIN6News pic.twitter.com/FDoQlXqjlN

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

Liz Appelman is ready to stand in solidarity with law enforcement during today's courthouse protest #KOIN6News pic.twitter.com/369EkIBdOR

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

Liz says as many as 100 are expected to come out to counter protest the event organized by militia groups #KOIN6News pic.twitter.com/W9I9DQKZ7U

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

Sign says "Refuge Occupiers Belong in Jail" #koin6news pic.twitter.com/BurVSW78lN

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

Paiute Tribal Chair stands with sign that says "Go Home" outside the Harney Co Courthouse #KOIN6News pic.twitter.com/jCa3EoelhF

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

A view from the courthouse steps on the flip side #koin6news pic.twitter.com/EGYcwO94iJ

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

Many here today came out to protest Lavoy Finicum's "murder" #koin6news pic.twitter.com/1RM7QUiBZS

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

A view from above the protest and counter protest at the Harney Co Courthouse #KOIN6News #MalheurOccupation pic.twitter.com/KYYSizpnUP

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

This sign says "stop the anarchy. Thank you LEO (law enforcement officers) " #KOIN6News pic.twitter.com/vONrRPxWS0

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

This sign reads "you are not our voice" #KOIN6News #Oregonstandoff #MalheurRefuge occupation pic.twitter.com/iWoRtkpfiz

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

Woman in old-style western wear stands with sign that says "For Lavoy" #KOIN6News pic.twitter.com/ypePUTnHEY

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

Crowd winding down, some still holding signs by the courthouse protesting the sheriff & Judge Grasty. #KOIN6News pic.twitter.com/odcqgg5yYV

— Jennifer Dowling (@JenDowlingKoin6) February 1, 2016

Protesters say Finicum's death was murder. Counter protesters are supporting enforcement. #Oregonstandoff

— Amanda Peacher (@amandapeacher) February 1, 2016

I estimate 300 locals here supporting law enforcement and officials, 150 protesting Finicum's death. Tense. pic.twitter.com/uJuJWnZ2XJ

— Amanda Peacher (@amandapeacher) February 1, 2016

Protest/counter protest still going on. Lots of shouting/emotion on both sides. #Oregonstandoff pic.twitter.com/EXIZ31Mlv2

— Amanda Peacher (@amandapeacher) February 1, 2016

In the middle of the protests, a circle of local residents begin to pray. #Oregonstandoff pic.twitter.com/OYuTDse4UT

— Amanda Peacher (@amandapeacher) February 1, 2016

This man is growing hoarse yelling "go home" to the PPN protesters. #Oregonstandoff pic.twitter.com/w5JDJbL84f

— Amanda Peacher (@amandapeacher) February 1, 2016

Seeing lots of photos of Finicum among protesters. This man came from Redmond. pic.twitter.com/59esJhXS9e

— Amanda Peacher (@amandapeacher) February 1, 2016

Protesters tried to approach the courthouse doors; locals backed up to block them. #Oregonstandoff pic.twitter.com/2Pf9wKN99s

— Amanda Peacher (@amandapeacher) February 1, 2016

I'll have more on the protests later tonight, with video if it becomes available. Expect updates...

WATCH: David Yepsen, Former 34-Year Des Moines Register Political Reporter, Says Mild Weather Could Boost Donald Trump Turnout

From WaPo's Robert Costa, on Twitter, "Iowa reporting legend @DavidYepsen says mild weather today could increase turnout, boost Trump (VIDEO)."

Yepson's now the Director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

Dude's got some creds.

Kendall Jenner Rocks Black Calvin Klein Bikini Love Magazine

On Twitter.

And at Love, "Kendall wears black refined bondage bandeau swimsuit top and black refined bondage hipster swim briefs both by Calvin Klein Swimwear."

PREVIOUSLY: "Kendall Jenner, Charlotte McKinney — Sexiest Women of 2015 (VIDEO)."

LATEST: #Malheur Occupier David Fry Remains at Wildlife Refuge Along with Last Three Holdouts

The update, from Julie Turkewitz, of the New York Times:

Just spoke with David Fry, one of the Malheur occupation holdouts. He's still there and tells me there are three others with him.

— julieturkewitz (@julieturkewitz) February 1, 2016

There's a huge protest going on outside the Harney County Courthouse right now in Burns. I'll have more on that later today, along with all the regular Iowa blogging.

What a day, man.

Outsiders Benefit from Voters' Angst

At the Des Moines Register, "How Iowa caucuses got so angry, ripe for outsiders":

HAMPTON, Ia. — This presidential campaign seethes with the anger and frustration of voters who seem to be sick of whatever they consider to be the corrupt, broken “establishment.”

But not here in this quiet, friendly coffee shop where Rick Santorum emphasizes what has become something of a dirty word: experience.

“I’m sort of making the case that, look, I understand your anger,” said the former Pennsylvania senator and winner of the 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses who now languishes at the bottom of the polls. “I was the anti-establishment candidate last time, and that anger was channeled through me.”

But, he insisted, “Channel your anger in a positive direction.”

“I didn’t sell I was going to blow up Washington four years ago.”

The national front-runner and acknowledged beneficiary of unrest on the right this cycle is Donald Trump, the brash billionaire developer who didn’t formally enter the race until June. He boasts that he has made so much money that self-funding his campaign inoculates him from the influence that big donors wage over candidates.

On the left, 74-year-old Bernie Sanders has electrified millennials as their favorite radical grandfather. He embraces what had been assumed to be the politically lethal adjective "socialist" and proclaims a Woodstock-era distrust of Wall Street.

At least one political expert in Iowa says that he has seen this anger brewing for decades as the caucuses have mushroomed into an international reality TV show: Candidates long have promised relief for the economically disadvantaged, but quickly forget caucusgoers once the circus moves on.

Trump had flirted with Iowa for months in early 2015 as the Republican side of the preseason race churned with the typical series of cattle-call events.

Larry Sailer, a stalwart Santorum supporter from rural Hampton, has been irritated by Trump’s rise.

“It’s the same thing that elected Obama eight years ago,” he shook his head. “The popularity deal.”

Conflating Obama and Trump? It’s as if the outsider allure and celebrity mystique now factoring into these caucuses have scrambled everybody’s political calculus.

'There's a lot of angst out there'

This isn’t how the race was supposed to go. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, with a super PAC tailwind of more than $100 million, was expected to dominate the national race and duel in Iowa with whoever emerged as this cycle's darling of the evangelical right. Hillary Clinton, made wiser by her cabinet experience and the 2008 Obama upset, was expected to wow Iowans on her easy waltz to the nomination.

But here we are in February, with Bush's campaign in single digits, a nail-biter race on either side and a path littered with bad predictions.

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