Friday, November 11, 2016

On 'Morning Joe': Understanding Trump Voters (VIDEO)

William Jacobson's been watching MSNBC, "Rachel Maddow: Is there a DOOMSDAY PLAN for progressives?":
I will admit, however, that I’ve been watching MSNBC a fair amount this week because their freakout is more interesting than the Fox News football spiking...
I just can't. Seriously, it's bad enough watching CNN.

But MSNBC's got a good YouTube page, and I just watched this Morning Joe segment --- and that's a show I could watch. I'm just not up that early (3:00am to 6:00am Pacific time).

At any rate, lots of analysis on (mis)understanding the white working-class electorate. Interesting point Scarborough brings up: It's not racism. Across those Midwest, in counties that voted Republican this year, those same white blue-collar voters went Democrat in 2008, thinking Obama as going to "ease their pain."

It's good:



Leftist Anti-Trump Protester Says 'People Have to Die' (VIDEO)

It seems there's no end to the stories of incitement and leftist depravity.

These people are one of the main reasons Trump won. Americans are taking our country back from precisely theses ghouls.

At FrontPage Magazine, "'People Have to Die': Unhinged Leftist Protests Greeted by Media Silence."



Black Mother Kicks Her Son Out of the House Because He Voted for Donald Trump in School Election (VIDEO)

I saw this on Twitter first.

And check out American Mirror, "SHOCK VIDEO: Mom throws out young son because he voted for Trump at school":
A young boy was left wailing on the side of the road after his mother kicked him our of her house for voting for Donald Trump in his school’s mock election — and she cruelly filmed the whole thing.

The video starts with the boy, who looks to be about 10 years old, standing at attention in the hallway.
“Because you voted for Donald Trump, you can get your shit and get out. The suitcase is packed by the door,” she said with it in the background.

“It’s been packed since this morning. Bye. And get your sign so the people know why you’re standing out there,” she declared as the boy collapsed into tears.

“Take your sign. Get up!” she ordered as he sat on the floor wailing.

He got up to run into the house and she shouted, “Come over here! Let’s go!”

She wasn’t kidding.

“You wanna vote for him. I’ll show you,” she said as she unlocked the front door to kick the boy out.

“Here’s your suitcase. Bye. Get your suitcase and get out,” the woman barked as the boy screamed.

“Bye. Go. We don’t do Donald Trump here. Get your suitcase,” she continued as the boy tried to avoid leaving the house.
I almost can't believe this.

But I have to believe that she followed that boy down the sidewalk and told him to come back inside. I have to believe that or else I doubt there's much hope for the humanity of leftists.

I just don't know how anyone can be so cruel. He's just a child. A small child who saw Trump on television and liked him.

Trump-Triggered George Mason University Administrator Calls Conservatives 'Worthless Pieces of Trash'

Yeah.

Here's more of that progressive healing they're always talking about.

At Twitchy, "Trump-triggered! George Mason U. admission’s director proves ‘tolerance is a one-way street’."

Hat Tip: Instapundit, "DISPATCHES FROM THE EDUCATION APOCALYPSE."

Supreme Court's Docket Likely to Change

One of the most importantly impacts of Trump's election will be its effect on the Supreme Court. We'll have a new member sometime early next year, and it's likely to be a conservative, which will preserve the 5-4 balance existing at the time of Antonin Scalia's death.

And Ruth Bader Ginsberg is frail. She's pledged to hang on, but how long is unknown. (Rumors swirled last year that Clarence Thomas was thinking about retirement, and so now's a good time, since he can rest assured Trump will appoint a conservative to replace him.)

At any rate, at WSJ, "Republican Victories Likely to Alter Supreme Court’s Docket":
WASHINGTON—Republican victories in Tuesday’s election are nearly certain to alter the Supreme Court’s docket, reviving conservative ambitions and dashing liberal hopes, even before President-elect Donald Trump nominates a successor next year for the court’s open seat.

Legal observers are discussing which cases already in the court’s pipeline are likely to disappear as the Trump administration reverses policies advanced under Democratic President Barack Obama.

The docket shift should accelerate as the appointment of a successor to the late Justice Antonin Scalia nears, likely reviving cases challenging public-sector unions and campaign-finance regulations.

Without clarity about the court’s future direction since Justice Scalia died in February, the justices ducked cases that otherwise might have been accepted. That will change once a ninth justice joins a court now split evenly between conservatives and liberals.

Before the court’s docket gets more interesting, however, it is likely to get less so if some of the most prominent cases are removed, such as a dispute over which restrooms in public schools transgender students can use.

In April, a federal appeals court in Richmond, Va., relied on legal guidance from the U.S. Education Department in ruling for Gavin Grimm, a transgender student who contended the Gloucester County, Va., school board violated federal sex-equity laws by requiring students to use facilities corresponding to their biological sex. If the Trump administration rescinds that guidance or takes the opposite position, the justices might throw out the lower court opinion without requiring oral argument.

Other cases involving Obama administration policies could meet similar fates.

Earlier this year, the Supreme Court sent back to lower courts challenges to Mr. Obama’s Clean Power Plan, which requires cuts in carbon emissions to reduce climate change; the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans program, which would allow illegal immigrants with children who are U.S. citizens to work; and Affordable Care Act regulations attempting to ensure that women who work for religion-affiliated organizations can obtain prescription birth control through employer-provided health insurance.

With the Trump administration expected to consider canceling such policies, the cases could vanish. The incoming president could also ensure the government doesn’t appeal a lower court decision last month that reduced the independence of another Obama-era legacy, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Another high-profile case, challenging a Missouri law limiting public subsidies for religious schools, is almost sure to leave the docket as a result of Tuesday’s election. The newly elected Republican attorney general, Josh Hawley, had while in private practice filed a friend-of-the-court brief opposing the state on behalf of the Assemblies of God denomination. After taking office in January, he could settle with the Trinity Lutheran Church of Columbia, Mo., which is seeking a state grant to resurface its preschool playground.

Progressive legal activists had imagined a Hillary Clinton presidential victory that, by filling the Scalia vacancy, could create the first liberal majority on the Supreme Court since 1969. Now, however, they can expect to return to the role they have played for nearly half a century: defense against a conservative legal offensive.

The nature of environmental litigation before the high court also is almost certain to shift. During the Obama years, industries, developers and their allies have challenged administration regulations under the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act and other environmental laws...
Still more.

I love that all these Obama-era clusterfuck policies and regulations are going to be flushed. I love it to the high heavens. I love it!

Elections have consequences.

Students Scared Donald Trump Will Deport Their Parents

Following-up from my previous entry, "Long Beach City College Announces Post-Election Student Support and Resources."

At the O.C. Register, "Students scared Donald Trump will kick their parents out of the country":
SANTA ANA – Sad. Nervous. Angry. Confused.

As they sat in a circle Thursday morning, students in Maria Soberanis’ eighth-grade class at Spurgeon Intermediate School had a lot to say about the presidential election.

“I feel scared they’re going to take away my mom and dad and grandma,” one girl softly shared with some 20 classmates.

Such circles have been repeated since Election Day across the Spurgeon campus and other schools in the Santa Ana Unified School District, with teachers trying to help students in the wake of Donald Trump’s election.

“He made a lot of people in my family cry,” Angel Avelar, 13, said.

Meanwhile, the Anaheim Union High School District told parents in recorded phone calls Thursday night that teachers and administrators “are being extra vigilant in supporting those who express fear or anxiety.”

The Los Angeles Unified School District’s board president sent out a message saying support would be offered to those who need it.

And Tom Torlakson, who oversees the state’s public schools, issued a statement late Thursday: “The election outcome has caused deep concern among many students and their families. ...

“In California, diversity is strength," he said. “And I want to tell young women and girls that they will always be safe, be respected, and be protected at school.”

In Santa Ana Unified, children gathered in circles, to talk.

“It doesn’t mean that it makes everything better, but it offers them a chance for their voices to be heard and a chance to recognize that they’re not alone," said Spurgeon's principal, Stuart Caldwell.

On Wednesday, some children had broken down crying, he said. One child said her family was already packing suitcases. Many boys and girls thought deportations would be imminent.

In Soberanis’ class, the eighth-graders expressed disappointment and sadness that so many Americans voted for Trump, a candidate who has disparaged women, called Mexicans criminals and demanded the immediate deportations of people living in the country illegally.

The school district, Orange County’s largest, is 96 percent Latino.

One student questioned whether America would ever be the same again...
Well, it's not going to be the same for the next four years at least, and hopefully longer. One thing that won't be the same is illegal aliens won't have a completely open sanctuary. There's a crackdown coming. How hard it's going to be I don't know, but some reports yesterday noted that an acceleration of deportations is on the Trump agenda come January. Personally, I'd rather see expedited deportations than a big push to build the wall, which would get bogged down in lawsuits, from what I understand. If illegals know they're going to be caught and punished, it's less likely they'll come in the first place.

But keep reading.

It's morning in America.

Long Beach City College Announces Post-Election Student Support and Resources

I haven't heard about any hateful incidents, but my college is joining other institutions around the country in creating "safe spaces" for students traumatized by the election of Donald Trump.

See, "Message From President Oakley: Post-Election Student Support and Resources":
Dear LBCC Students,

Across our country and throughout college campuses nationwide, people are processing the outcome of an unprecedented Presidential election. For many Americans, and indeed for many college students, this election has brought deep anxiety, discomfort, and uncertainty about the future. Undoubtedly, many of you have seen the responses in community and campus demonstrations, and statements by some that question the safety and rights of students from diverse backgrounds.

I feel compelled to address these concerns and reassure our students that Long Beach City College remains a safe, secure, and supportive environment for all of you. The diversity of our campus is one of our proudest and strongest qualities. We will continue to serve all of you and advocate on your behalf. Every single one of you belongs here and you are welcome on this campus – now and in the future.

While we are seeing some unrest within college and university campuses, we must remember that this unrest is an example of the unwavering rights we have in the United States to speak freely and engage in social action as a community. Our system remains strong and our campus will remain steadfast in its fair and equitable treatment for all students.

I encourage you, during this time of transition and uncertainty, to stay focused on your educational goals. Do not lose sight of what brought you to LBCC and the success that I know lies ahead for each and every one of you.

Campus resources are available to you, so please take advantage of these as you need them. Do not hesitate to contact LBCC’s Director of Student Health Services and Student Life Ginny DuRivage ... if you have any concerns or need to utilize student support resources.

For more information, please see this flyer for upcoming support group sessions, and this statement from the California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office.


Sincerely,
Eloy Ortiz Oakley
Superintendent-President

Pollsters Under Fire After String of Astonishing Misses Around the Globe

I'll have more on this.

I think the biggest problems were with the state-level polls. Sure, the national horse-race polling was off, as clearly evidenced by the RCP average that had Hillary Clinton ahead in the low single-digits throughout the year, but the big story was how pollsters missed the blue-collar surge in the states, especially in those states comprising Hillary Clinton's allegedly impregnable "firewall" in the upper Midwest.

Stay tuned for more on that.

Meanwhile, at WSJ, "Pollsters Face Hurdles in Changing Landscape":
Pollsters are rethinking how they operate after a string of astonishing misses around the globe this year—from incorrectly calling the Brexit vote in the U.K., the peace accord with rebels in Colombia and now the U.S. presidential election.

Pollsters say a confluence of changes are making their jobs more difficult: People are changing how they communicate, moving from landlines to cellphones and the internet. That makes it harder to generate large random samples.

Plus, fewer people are willing to answer surveys. As a result, pollsters must more heavily weight the answers they get, which requires making assumptions that don’t always prove true—especially on the variable of who will show up to vote.

“I would say, as a businessman, ‘Yeah, we have to be concerned about the fact that the business I work in—people are going to question its efficacy,” said Fred Yang, a partner at Hart Research Associates, a Democratic polling firm in Washington.

The industry’s trade association said this week it would conduct a review of the 2016 election to better understand what happened.

The outcome also raises questions about the research businesses rely on to test new products and measure customer behaviors, since many of the same survey methods are used for market research.

“A corporate market research project, you don’t know if your polling is shit because there’s no election day,” said Dan Wagner, head of Democratic research firm Civis Analytics, which also conducts nonpolitical surveys. In politics, “there’s a day where you’re going to find out whether you were right or whether you’re an idiot.”

Two decades ago, more than one-third of U.S. households contacted for a survey agreed to answer questions, according to the Pew Research Center. Now, that number is around 9%.

“It’s basically gotten more difficult to be accurate,” said Patrick Ruffini, head of Republican research firm Echelon Insights. “It doesn’t take much for everybody to be a little bit—or dramatically—off about what the outcome is going to be.”

About half of all American households rely exclusively on cellphones, but reaching those people is expensive and time consuming because researchers can’t call those people using auto-dialers. A law aimed at telemarketers requires anyone calling a cellphone to dial all 10 digits by hand.

Increasing costs have pushed many researchers toward new survey methods, primarily online, that aren’t as well understood. A study by Pew earlier this year found inaccuracies in online surveys that were hard to explain...
Actually, I think online surveys are ultimately going to replace telephone polling. It's already happening. The Los Angeles Times poll was one of the most accurate --- if not the most accurate --- of the 2016 cycle.

They're polling's not "shit."

But keep reading.

Kellyanne Conway Asks Protesters to Listen to Donald Trump's Victory Speech (VIDEO)

Following-up, "Kellyanne Conway Has Been Offered a Position in the Trump Administration."

At CNN:



Thursday, November 10, 2016

Democrats Anguished by Transition to Donald Trump Era

It's bad all around.

I've never seen a more profound death pall across the body politic. It's almost unreal.

"Dark days," at the Hill:


Kellyanne Conway Has Been Offered a Position in the Trump Administration

I can't think of anyone I'd more strongly want to join the administration. She's been the most articulate and sunny face of the campaign since she took over as campaign manager, and I doubt you'd find a better person to serve as press secretary (and counselor to the president).

From an earlier a WSJ report. Ms. Conway not only confirms she's been offered a job, but shoots down speculation that she'd rather stay in the private sector:


Maybe Trump? Among Republican Foreign Policy Elites, Opposition Softens to Joining the New Administration

Following-up from earlier, "Trump Transition Team Planning First Months in Office."

This is quite interesting.

At the New York Times, "‘Never Trump’ Becomes ‘Maybe Trump’ in Foreign Policy Sphere":
WASHINGTON — Like no other part of the Republican establishment, the party’s foreign policy luminaries joined in opposition to the idea of a Donald J. Trump presidency.

Loyal Republicans who served in the two Bush administrations, they appeared on television and wrote op-eds blasting him. They aligned under a “Never Trump” banner and signed a letter saying they were “convinced that he would be a dangerous president and would put at risk our country’s national security and well-being.”

For his part, President-elect Trump has maligned them as bumbling and myopic, architects of “a long history of failed policies and continued losses at war.”

The coming weeks will determine whether both sides decide they need each other.

On the establishment side, the opposition is now softening for some — driven either by a stated sense of patriotic duty to advise a new president with no foreign policy expertise, or a somewhat less noble motive to avoid years of being excluded from Washington power circles.

“Never Trump” has become “Maybe Trump.” But whether he would have them is another matter.

Since the election was resolved early Wednesday, there have been at least informal contacts between the two factions, according to several people in both camps who refused to be identified. One person who is helping Mr. Trump’s transition team said the group was already receiving résumés from former Republican officials, including some of the signers of two open letters this year excoriating Mr. Trump’s foreign policy views. At the same time, the transition team has also made unofficial overtures to some of the people who signed the two letters — one in March and the second in August.

For now, Mr. Trump is relying on a small circle of advisers to begin considering candidates for national security positions. General [Michael T.] Flynn openly disdains the views of many in the Republican national security establishment, especially those who served in senior positions during the George W. Bush administration. It was these people, he said during an interview shortly before the election, who helped push the United States into “too many conflicts that just seem too perpetual.”

“Mr. Trump, that’s what he wants to change,” he said...
More. (Keep reading especially for the discussion of Omarosa Manigault and the "blacklist" of those who opposed Trump during the campaign.)

I'm not worried about this, at all.

Frankly, I should avoid the Twitter feeds of leftist academics, who were among those arguing that Trump would never be elected. They were wrong, badly so. And I can guarantee you, as Trump looks more presidential by the day, the attractions of being in power again will become irresistible.

Here's What the Entire Leftist Media Establishment Got Wrong

Not a full-on mea culpa, but close. Very close.

At NBC News, "First Read: What We Got Wrong":
What we got wrong in the 2016 presidential election

If you believe in learning from your mistakes, here is everything we and plenty others seemed to get wrong in the general election:

That the poll numbers showing Donald Trump's percentage in the high 30s and low 40s couldn't grow;

That a seemingly stable race -- with Hillary Clinton holding a consistent lead -- wouldn't change at the end;

That the votes out of Urban America and its suburbs would overwhelm the votes out of Rural America;

That Clinton was the one expanding the political map versus Trump doing it;

That changing demographics assured Democratic success in presidential contests, unless the GOP made an explicit appeal to minority voters;

That the Obama coalition could be transferred to another Democrat;

That Trump couldn't win if he got a lower percentage of white voters than Mitt Romney did four years ago;

That the party's that's more united has the advantage in a presidential contest over the more divide party;

That the conventions and presidential debates actually mattered;

That a small band of partisans couldn't get away with trying to delegitimize the media;

And that a presidential candidate who demolished so many norms (not releasing tax returns, talking about jailing an opponent, threatening not to respect the election's outcome) would pay a price for them in the end.
Note this is just NBC, although my headline indicates "the entire leftist media establishment," which should be under indictment at this point. Sheesh.

RELATED: "Crystal Ball's Mea Culpa (VIDEO)."

Trump Transition Team Planning First Months in Office

There's some concern that top policy experts, former government officials, and military personnel, etc., won't serve in a Trump administration, and hence the transition is hampered by a dearth of qualified candidates. (And there's speculation that the Trump camp may have "blacklisted" potential foreign policy / national security recruits.) Indeed, word is that the transition team had yet to call the Pentagon by this afternoon (although I didn't save that tweet; I'll update with it later if I see it.).

In any case, all the academic foreign policy experts are buzzing about this, these of course being the same people who'd never serve in a Trump administration.

Actually things didn't seem so dire at this Wall Street Journal piece, from early today, "Donald Trump Transition Team Planning First Months in Office: Donald Trump’s transition team has had smaller staff than previous Republican nominees":
In his first days in office, Mr. Trump has said, he plans to announce he will reopen the North American Free Trade Agreement, and will withdraw consideration of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. He plans to order his commerce secretary to identify, and then remedy, all foreign trade “abuses that unfairly impact American workers.” He plans to lift restrictions on tapping energy reserves, approve the Keystone XL pipeline and cancel billions in payments to United Nations climate-change programs.

The New York businessman has vowed to cancel President Obama’s promise to protect from deportation undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children, and start deporting as many as two million undocumented immigrants with criminal records.

The first 100 days of the Trump administration “will focus on three to five structural reforms from day one, including controlling the southern border,” Mr. Gingrich said. “It will almost certainly include very dramatic civil-service reform to allow us to fire people who are incompetent or corrupt or breaking the law.”

Several of Mr. Trump’s early initiatives could likely be accomplished through executive orders and regulatory changes, which would make it easy for him to execute because he can bypass Congress. But he could also seek congressional input to foster a better relationship with lawmakers, and his senior staff will have to decide soon on what agenda to set.
Also:
The Trump transition team is working on two floors of an office tower about a block from the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue. The team working on appointments meets on the eighth floor.The group includes New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the transition chairman; Rich Bagger, a former New Jersey state senator who was formerly Mr. Christie’s staff chief and is executive director of the transition; and former Heritage Foundation President Ed Feulner, the transition team’s principal domestic policy adviser.

On the seventh floor are offices of The five main policy teams are being overseen by Ron Nicol, a former Navy officer and longtimeadviser to the Boston Consulting Group. The economics team is headed by William Walton, the head of a private-equity firm, and David Malpass, who was chief economist at Bear Stearns and a GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate from New York in 2010.

The national security team is headed by former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Mich.). Retired Army Lt. Gen. J. Keith Kellogg heads the defense team, while former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is in charge of domestic issues. The management and budget team is headed by Ed Meese, who served as attorney general under President Ronald Reagan, and Kay Coles James, who served in both Bush administrations.

A sixth team, run by Ado Machida, a former domestic policy aide to then-Vice President Dick Cheney, is devoted to reviewing President Barack Obama’s executive actions, as well as regulation overhauls and immigration. The immigration team is made up of staffers with ties to Sen. Jeff Sessions, the Alabama Republican who has long called for tougher immigration laws, and includes a unit dedicated to figuring out how to build Mr. Trump’s wall along the U.S.-Mexico border...
Ed Meese! The dude's still hangin'!

And see, "Trump’s Transition Team Works to Form Cabinet: Jeb Hensarling, a foe of financial regulation is floated as a candidate for powerful Treasury secretary role, as process heats up."

Van Jones Discusses 'Whitelash' (VIDEO)

Leftists have lost their minds, and that's no joke.

Following-up from this morning, "Van Jones Not Taking It Well: "This was a white lash..." (VIDEO)."

Jones had to explain his comments, with the assumption (naturally) that racism and bigotry only inflict Republicans:



Emmy Rossum in New Episode of 'Shameless'

Here's some lovely Emmy Rossum to take your mind off the election fallout for a few minutes.

At WWTDD, "Emmy Rossum Still Doing Topless in 'Shameless'":
Quite under the radar, Emmy Rossum has bared her tits in sex scenes in Shameless now every single season of the long running show. This is in itself doesn't seem like much of an accomplshment until you imagine all the breathless People articles about Jennifer Aniston being super brave for being topless in her next film only to have that footage never exist or end up on the cutting room floor by order of Aniston. Very few successful actresses in Hollywood will allow themselves to be in recurring topless roles. Certainly not once they have the advantage of being leads in successful long running series giving them quite a bit of leverage...
Keep reading.

Crystal Ball's Mea Culpa (VIDEO)

Following-up from Tuesday morning, "Crystal Ball's Final Projection: Clinton 322, Trump 216."

Larry Sabato and Co. screwed up big time, totally botching their election projections.

The good professor appeared on Fox & Friends yesterday morning, confessing that "we blew it."

Watch, "Donald Trump Elected President - Larry Sabato on Polls: We Were Wrong - Fox & Friends."

And at Crystal Ball, "Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa":
We heard for months from many of you, saying that we were underestimating the size of a potential hidden Trump vote and his ability to win. We didn’t believe it, and we were wrong. The Crystal Ball is shattered. We’ll pick up the pieces starting next week as we try to unpack what happened in this election, where there was so much dramatic change from just four years ago.

We have a lot to learn, and we must make sure the Crystal Ball never has another year like this. This team expects more of itself, and we apologize to our readers for our errors.
I'm interested in this "hidden Trump vote," which leftist outlets pooh poohed. But there must have been one, since Trump ran the table, against almost all the poll predictions.

But see my yesterday entry, "How Could the Polling Be So Wrong?"

Two Americas

At LAT, "Clinton and Trump supporters come from two Americas":
Samantha Miller, a 47-year-old paralegal, stood in the back of a rally in Virginia Beach last month, worried that America had become preoccupied with going “to third-world countries” to fight wars and aid others and needed to “take care of ourself” first.

“No one is here to help us,” she said.

Trump seized on that anxiety with nostalgia for a version of a post-World War II America, when overseas victories and the path to economic security for working-class whites were more clear-cut than they are in a modern world, with messy foreign clashes and fewer paths to economic prosperity for those without a college education.

He said repeatedly that his election represented a “last chance” to reclaim past greatness, and declared in his acceptance speech: “The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer.”
RTWT.

Van Jones Not Taking It Well: "This was a white lash..." (VIDEO)

From CNN's election night coverage, a Van Jones meltdown:



Also, at AoSHQ, "Early Night For Me."

Here's Why Trump Won

A great post from AoSHQ, "One Anecdote That Helps Explain the 'Rage' Our Liberal Masters Don't Understand."