Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Reopening Bookstores

I've been thinking a lot about this, especially for this summer when I'm not teaching, where I'm mostly cruising around to bookstores and libraries, before stopping into the sports bar to read with a couple of I.P.A.s.

At NYT, "For Bookstore Owners, Reopening Holds Promise and Peril":

Last fall, Kyle Hall’s bookstore was destroyed by a tornado. This spring, it was almost wiped out by a pandemic.

For the past two months, ever since Texas ordered nonessential businesses to shut down, Mr. Hall, the manager and co-owner of Interabang Books in Dallas, has taken one unprecedented step after another to keep the store open. In March, Interabang transformed from a brick-and-mortar shop into an online retail business. When the stay-at-home order was lifted at the end of April, it became a curbside takeout operation. Staff members redesigned the storefront display, cramming 100 titles in the window so that customers could browse at a safe distance.

“We called it the bookstore bakery case,” Mr. Hall said. “That was strange, but in a week we got used to it.”

Then the state’s orders changed again, and retailers were told they could open at 25 percent their usual capacity. Interabang’s staff reorganized the layout of the 2,000-square-foot space and put markers on the floor to signal how far apart customers should stand. This past weekend, around 150 customers came to shop, most wearing masks.

“We felt like, if the governor is going to allow businesses like ours to reopen, and doing business was permissible, then we wanted to do it,” Mr. Hall said.

Even as health experts working with the Trump administration warned a Senate panel on Tuesday against reopening the country too quickly, the U.S. retail sector is beginning to get back to business. As some states allow a handful of businesses to reopen and other regions charge ahead full throttle, it is an experiment for bookstore owners and other retailers attempting to strike a balance between staying afloat and keeping workers and customers safe.

“The staff resoundingly said, ‘We are not ready,’” she said.

Among retail businesses, bookstores, especially smaller independent stores, face particular challenges as they navigate reopening. Many indies occupy cramped spaces with warrens of bookshelves, and serve as community centers and cultural outposts as much as retail operations. Book lovers often come in to linger, browse and chat with the staff about what to read next, all behaviors that in a pandemic are potentially life-threatening.

Some booksellers are now in the awkward position of having to disappoint eager customers. Malaprop’s in Asheville, N.C., told subscribers to its newsletter that even though the state had cleared bookstores to open, it would remain closed until at least May 19. When it reopens, shoppers will be allowed to visit by appointment only, to limit the number of people in the store, and face coverings will be mandatory.
Still more.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Anthony Fauci Warns of 'Needless Suffering and Death' (VIDEO)

He actually toned it down in his testimony today, but he's not kowtowing to President Trump.

At CNN and NYT:



Los Angeles County to Maintain 'Stay-at-Home' Order Through July

Lots happening in California.

The Cal State system announced that all 23 campuses will teach online in the fall. (My school's already announced it's going to all remote instruction next semester.)

And Gavin Newsom's under pressure to lift the lockdown and get the economy rolling again, but the health numbers are not looking good. See, "As coronavirus deaths mount, California still very much in danger zone."

And L.A. County's not taking any chances, "L.A. County ‘with all certainty’ will keep stay-at-home orders in place through July":
Los Angeles County’s stay-at-home orders will “with all certainty” be extended for the next three months, county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer acknowledged during a Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday.

Ferrer, though she didn’t issue an official order, said that timeline would only change if there was a “dramatic change to the virus and tools at hand.”

“Our hope is that by using the data, we’d be able to slowly lift restrictions over the next three months,” she said. But without widely available therapeutic testing for the coronavirus or rapid at-home versions that would allow people to test themselves daily, it seems unlikely that restrictions would be completely eased.

Ferrer’s comments came shortly after Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, warned Congress that states that push too quickly to ease orders could undo progress that would trigger an outbreak. Fauci said a 14-day decline in cases is the major checkpoint that states should meet before reopening.

In L.A. County, confirmed cases and deaths have continued to rise, even though beaches in the county are set to reopen on Wednesday, just days after the county lifted restrictions on hiking trails, parks and golf courses and allowed curbside pickup at nonessential businesses. But Ferrer warned Tuesday that further loosening of the rules will be slow.

But how people can use the sand will look different. Face coverings will be required when not in the water, and sunbathing won’t be allowed. Only active recreation — surfing, running, walking and swimming — will be permitted. Coolers, chairs, umbrellas and any of the other accessories that typically dot the shoreline should be left at home.

The update to L.A.'s stay-at-home orders comes as officials try to satisfy two needs: restarting the economy under a new normal while also ensuring that the resurgence in activity doesn’t upend progress in the fight against the coronavirus...
More.

Monday, May 11, 2020

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Richard Overy, Why the Allies Won

At Amazon, Richard Overy, Why the Allies Won.

Why the Allies Won photo 13237670_10209883259701141_6163145939782565492_n_zpsluz2s1sd.jpg

Williamson Murray, The Making of Strategy

At Amazon, Williamson Murray, The Making of Strategy: Rulers, States, and War.



Russell Shorto, The Island at the Center of the World

At Amazon, Russell Shorto, The Island at the Center of the World: The Epic Story of Dutch Manhattan and the Forgotten Colony That Shaped America.



Sophie Mudd Photos

At Celeb Jihad, "SOPHIE MUDD UNDER BOOBS AND NUDE ASS PHOTOS."

FLASHBACK: At Drunken Stepfather, "SOPHIE MUDD’S MASSIVE TITS OF THE DAY."



Hump Day

Heh.

Get a kick out of this, at Drunken Stepfather, "HUMP DAY BOOTY OF THE DAY."

Kern County Hit Hard by Coronavirus

I had no idea the town of McKittrick, in Kern County west of Interstate 5, had so many oil wells --- especially wells that are still operating.

But the town's been hit hard, along with the rest of the county.

See LAT, "Kern County city gets hit with triple whammy: Lockdowns, oil slump and prison closing":

TAFT, Calif. —  The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic is slamming cities and towns across the state.

But for Taft, a city of roughly 9,300 people in far western Kern County, there have been a few extra punches to the gut.

With prices and demand for oil down, the thousands of pump jacks that ordinarily bob up-and-down on the horizon are at a virtual standstill. That is adding to the misery on main street, where restaurants, gyms, stationery shops and other stores have been ordered closed.

And then there’s the fact that another major employer, the privately owned Taft Correctional Institute, closed its doors on April 30 after sending hundreds of uninfected prisoners to coronavirus hot spots across the country. The decision to close the federal prison was made last fall, long before the pandemic struck, but now the economic pain is hitting.

“It’s been a rough couple of months,” said Mayor Dave Noerr, who is pivoting as fast as he can to get his town’s economy up and running again.

Taft sits at the base of the San Emigdio and Temblor mountain ranges, between the Midway-Sunset and Buena Vista oil fields, in the southwest corner of the San Joaquin Valley. The smell of oil in the air along Mocal Road, just to the northwest of town, is unmistakable.

Once known as Siding Number Two — a stop off the Southern Pacific railway — Taft was subsequently named Moro, then Moron, before town leaders settled on naming the area after then-President Taft in 1912.

It’s been the geographical center of the California oil industry, where companies such as Chevron and Aera siphon up crude from the vast reserves pooled under this remote, dry region dotted with sage brush, clover and buckwheat.

On April 27, Taft’s City Council voted unanimously to open up for business on May 3, in defiance of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s orders.

But two days later, Kern County officials asked Noerr to stand down.

Unwilling to give up, the mayor penned a letter with four county supervisors and state Senate Minority Leader Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield), requesting the governor modify stay-at-home orders.

“Local government should have the flexibility and discretion to navigate reopening stages in a timeline that works best for their communities,” wrote Noerr and those co-signing the letter. Noerr sits on a Kern County advisory board that is evaluating how best to respond to the governor’s orders.

“I hate to say it, but the civil unrest we have been seeing seems to be having a positive effect,” he said, referring to protests over the weekend and the governor’s decision to reopen beaches around the state.

Several counties and cities have pushed back against Newsom’s emergency orders. In the far northeastern part of the state, Modoc County opened up for business on Friday. Sheriffs in Del Norte and Humboldt counties announced they would not enforce the orders.

Kern County has also opted not to enforce the restrictions.

“I see no reason why we should remain closed,” Noerr said in an interview, last week, not wearing a mask. He said the overall economy of the town likely has shrunk by 40%. He doesn’t yet have the numbers to show the true impact.

Sitting at the base of a bronze statue dedicated to the 20th century oil worker pioneers who built the city and the region’s oil industry, Noerr pointed to Kern County’s COVID-19 numbers, which show that Taft now has 16 cases, and that hospitalization rates in the county have started to dip...
More.

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

California's Beach Lockdowns Could Continue Into Late-2021

I'm freakin' gobsmacked at the Democrats' tone-deaf politics here.

Remember from the other day, "Beach Lockdowns" (PHOTOS).

People are not wearing masks, and folks are only slightly better at "social distancing."

Tonight my young son and I went down to the Balboa Peninsula, in Newport, and it was the same thing again.

At the Wedge, the beach and the parks are closed and taped off. You can't even sit on a bench on the sidewalk. But people ignore the signs and few, if any, wear masks. And especially at Balboa, it's not just young people. Perhaps it's mostly local residents who pay local property taxes and feel like they own the place, but older couples were just cruising along without regard to the protocols set in Sacramento.

Which leads me to question recent polls showing overwhelming numbers of Californians down with the lockdown mandates, the distancing protocols, and especially the closed beaches. It's not just hippie protesters down in Huntington Beach. I suspect the numbers of anti-lockdown types are not shown in recent data. Here's the L.A. Times' piece from last week, which purported to show a 75 percent acceptance rate (or "approval rate," if you could call it that) of Governor Gavin Newsom's "stay-at-home" order: "Californians broadly trust state government on coronavirus — but mistrust Trump, poll finds."


The Times's poll, conducted along with the U.C. Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, uses a massive online panel of essentially non-randomized respondents. The I.G.S.'s methods disclaimer says that "stratification" techniques are used to adjust normally anticipated sampling errors, but of course less well-off respondents are already less likely to be included, and frankly, affluent Californians, especially at the beaches, have more time and knowledge important to political participation, and are thus more likely to give a big F.U. to Newsom's mandates. And given the dire straights of polling in recent years, in any case, folks should interpret these results with a large dose of salt.

And now the "experts" are saying it could be a year or more until Newsom's stay-at-home mandates are completely lifted. And about enforcement? No doubt the Newsom regime's "suede-denim secret police" will be coming for your "uncool niece."

See, from yesterday's paper, "California reopening would start slow, not be complete for a year or longer, expert estimates":


SAN FRANCISCO —  So when might California be ready to really loosen up its statewide stay-at-home order?

One expert told The Times it would be a slow process that could take more than a year. But as some counties have pushed to reopen faster, Gov. Gavin Newsom is moving ahead with initial steps in the second stage of his previously outlined four-stage plan.

Newsom, who has said he understands frustrations with the projected pace of reopening, announced on Monday plans to allow some retail businesses to reopen as early as Friday for curbside pickup. And he said some counties would be able to move faster than others to reopen more types of businesses.

Some health experts on the local and national level have cautioned that some coronavirus restrictions — like sports teams not being allowed to play to packed stadium crowds — may need to continue through the rest of this year and into next year...

Stage 4: Full opening:

The full end of the stay-at-home order, allowing the resumption of:

* Sports with live audiences
* Convention centers
* Concerts

Expert forecast: This may not be implemented until the middle or latter part of 2021, Kim-Farley said.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said that, even under the most optimistic scenarios, it would take 12 to 18 months for a vaccine to become available.

Last week, Fauci said it might not be possible for sports teams to resume play this year.

“Safety, for the players and for the fans, trumps everything,” Fauci said in an interview with the New York Times. “If you can’t guarantee safety, then unfortunately you’re going to have to bite the bullet and say, ‘We may have to go without this sport for this season.’”
Still more.

Orange County's beach communities are some of the last bastions of conservatism in the state, and yet Republicans still couldn't hold these seats in the 2018 midterm elections. As long as the Democrats maintain their one-party dictatorship in Sacramento, it's hard to see the overall political balance shifting any time soon.

We may be in for some more rowdy protests in the near future, and I'm not ruling out political violence if radical leftists refuse the kind of compromises necessary to govern such a diverse state, one with a large minority of gun-toting Gadsden flag-waving patriots. Talk about one "long, hot summer."

Sunday, May 3, 2020

New Iryna Photos

Unreal.



Neil Hanson, The Confident Hope of a Miracle

At Amazon, Neil Hanson, The Confident Hope of a Miracle: The True History of the Spanish Armada.



Jennifer Delacruz's Sunday Forecast

Looks a little cloudy at the beaches, but wonderfully sunny inland.

Here's the beautiful Ms. Jennifer, for ABC News 10 San Diego:



Bioluminescence

At Fox News 11 Los Angeles, "Surfer rides surreal bioluminescent waves off California coast."

And LAT on YouTube:



Credibility Bookcases

Following-up, "Cate Blanchett's Books."

At NYT:


And "Credibility Bookcase" focuses mostly on British personalities, but there's some perceptively droll humor:



Global Backlash Builds Against China

From Glenn Reynolds, at Instapundit, "GOOD: Global Backlash Builds Against China Over Coronavirus: As calls for inquiries and reparations spread, Beijing has responded aggressively, mixing threats with aid and adding to a growing mistrust of China."


Howard Fast, Torquemada

It's on Kindle. Don't buy the paperback. It's too expensive.

At Amazon, Howard Fast, Torquemada.



Beach Lockdowns

Here's the latest at LAT, "California stay-at-home order faces revolts at beaches and in rural communities," and "Surfers ignore barriers, protesters confront police on Orange County beaches."

I took my young son down to Corona Del Mar on Friday night to watch the sunset. It was spectacular. But everything was taped off. The grassy knolls were closed and you couldn't walk down the steps to the jetty. People in the crowd weren't wearing masks, especially younger people who were all devil may care. There was even some angry shaming going on. One woman was pissed when a group of men came back up the stairs and jumped over the rail, coming within one foot of her. I think she was right to call them out as rude, although she herself wasn't wearing a mask.

So, that's my little experience of heading down to the water during this pandemic. Maybe the beaches will open back up this week and I'll go for a long walk on the shore at Newport?





Friday, May 1, 2020

John Barry, The Great Influenza

*BUMPED.*

At Amazon, John Barry, The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History.


Schools Debate Giving Straight A’s to Everyone

It's not so much a debate at my college. The administration recommends that faculty members give students "multiple attempts" on their assignments, so they'll pass these easier, and the school won't lose too many students to withdrawal (which hurts funding levels, which are already getting hammered by the coronavirus pandemic and the economic downturn).

But giving out straight A's isn't fair. Students won't study, and the ones who work hard will be penalized, which could hurt their prospects for college down the road.

In any case, at NYT, "Should the Virus Mean Straight A’s for Everyone?":
As high schools approach the end of an academic year without proms or field trips or graduation ceremonies, another fundamental part of American education is being transformed: the report card.

School districts across the country have adopted new grading systems for this semester, driven by concern for students who face hardship from the coronavirus and its economic fallout. Some districts have dropped letter grades altogether, while others are guaranteeing A’s in most cases, or ensuring that students’ performance during the pandemic will not count against them.

But there are places where administrators have encountered stiff resistance to the idea of dropping grades, even temporarily. Some parents and students are concerned about the ability of high achievers to compete in selective college admissions, while others worry that eschewing grades means students will have less incentive to participate in remote learning.

“Are expectations going to be this very fluid line that we keep shifting?” asked Tanji Reed Marshall, a director at the Education Trust, a national advocacy group focused on low-income students and students of color. She warned against “deficit thinking” that underestimates what young people from poor families are capable of, even during a public health crisis.

Over the past few weeks, many public schools have adopted what is called a “hold harmless” approach to grades, including those in Los Angeles, the nation’s second-largest district. The approach allows students to use the rest of the semester to improve their scores, but their final grades cannot drop lower than they were before schools shut down.

New York City, the nation’s largest district, will still issue letter grades in high school, although students with failing scores will get an “in progress” instead of an F. But they can also opt into a pass/fail system that would not lower their grade point averages, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced on Tuesday.

Across the country, there is no clear agreement on the best approach, with some states, including Illinois, Delaware and New Mexico, urging districts to adopt a pass/incomplete or credit/no credit system, and others like Oklahoma warning that a lack of letter grades could cost students scholarships or harm their eligibility for college sports. And school systems are aware that whatever they do now could set a precedent for the fall, when remote learning might continue.

Nowhere has the debate been more passionate than in the San Mateo Union High School District south of San Francisco...

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Cate Blanchett's Books

Not just Ms. Kate's.

This is cool. When I'm watching the news, especially CNN (since Fox is frequently on the conspiracy side these days, especially Ingraham and Hannity), I love looking to see what's on people's book shelves.

I've counted a least three people who've had Ron Chernow's Hamilton on their shelves. It's easily recognizable so I always look to see if it's up there. Tells you a lot about a person, since Hamilton the musical is de rigueur for progressive coastal elites (and their wannabe worshipers in the leftist media).

In any case, at the New York Times:

Bibliophiles do not approach bookshelves lightly. A stranger’s collection is to us a window to their soul. We peruse with judgment, sometimes admiration and occasionally repulsion (Ayn Rand?!). With celebrities now frequently speaking on television in front of their home libraries, a voyeuristic pleasure presents itself: Are they actually really like us?

Blanchett owns all 20 volumes of the Oxford English Dictionary, man!

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Bill de Blasio is Stoking Anti-Semitism

From Batya Ungar-Sargon, at the Forward, "De Blasio is stoking anti-Semitism. He’s not alone."

Demi Rose in Skimpy Bikini-Bottom Only

At Taxi Driver, "Demi Rose Topless in Only a Thong While Wet."

BONUS: "Rita Ora Braless While Crouching in an Open Field," and "Bella Thorne Braless Wearing a Tight White Wifebeater."

Marooned in Marin is Back!

There's not too many local independent bloggers left these days, especially since Twitter exploded over the last decade as the "comment board" of choice for the Internets fever swamp trolls. Even John Hawkins, of Right Wing News fame, hung up his keyboard a couple of years back after Facebook purged his advertising, killing his revenue stream.

See, "A (Part Time) Return to Blogging...":
I have to say that President Trump has greatly exceeded my expectations in the three plus years he has been President. He is not a "movement conservative," as Ronald Reagan was. But, President Trump certainly has been the most conservative President since Reagan. I would argue that, until Trump, our nation has suffered under two Bushes, one Clinton, and Obama of a deficit of leadership where we have become too willing to surrender our sovereignty to globalism. What has happened with COVID-19 should be a wake-up call that we cannot rely on other nations, especially those who are Communist or hostile regimes, for vital things like medicines. Thank goodness President Trump has made us energy independent so we will not have to rely on overseas oil from a region where there are regimes hostile to America.
Also, "Democrats & Media Sycophants Kick & Scream as Trump Lays Path to Reopen US Economy."

Wonderful Ms. Katie

On Twitter:


Brad Pitt is the Man

I love this guy.

The skit's not that funny, actually, but the context is. Dr. Fauci wanted Pitt to impersonate him on 'SNL' and got his wish.

Fauci's came under intense fire from conspiracy-minded bottom-dwellers, and a while back he got a majority security upgrade, including armed federal marshals taking posts outside his home. 

At HuffPo:


And 'SNL':


Newport Beach Votes to Keep Beaches Open (VIDEO)

At LAT, "Newport Beach council votes to keep beaches open, despite crowds and rebuke from Newsom."

And CBS News 2 Los Angeles:



Kat Dennings

See, "Leaked Pics of Kat Dennings."

More here, "Kat Dennings The Busty Actress."

Amazon Sales: Pools, Spas, and Supplies

*BUMPED.*

At least folks can swim in their own backyards during the lockdown, man.

At Amazon, Shopping for Pools, Spas, and Supplies.

Plus, Kaufman – 100% Cotton Velour Striped Beach & Pool Towel 4-Pack – 30in x 60in, and AmazonBasics Cabana Stripe Beach Towel - Pack of 2, Navy Blue.

Also, Outdoor Patio Synthetic Backyard Poolside Garden Black Rattan Wicker Chaise Lounge Chair Cushioned Set Adjustable with Armrest (Set of Two, Royal Blue), and Best Choice Products Adjustable Outdoor Steel Patio Chaise Lounge Chair for Patio, Poolside w/ 5 Positions, UV-Resistant Cushions - Beige.

More, SKINNY TUMBLERS 4 Colored Acrylic Tumblers with Lids and Straws | Skinny, 16oz Double Wall Clear Plastic Tumblers With FREE Straw Cleaner & Name Tags! (Clear, 4).

Still more, Coleman 24-Can Party Stacker Portable Cooler.

And, Fujifilm FinePix XP130 Waterproof Digital Camera w/16GB SD Card - Sky Blue.

Also, Banana Boat Sunscreen Ultra Sport Performance, Broad Spectrum Sunscreen Spray - SPF 30 - 6 Ounce Twin Pack.

BONUS: Sports Illustrated Swimsuit: 50 Years of Beautiful Hardcover.

Hilary Mantel, Bring Up the Bodies

At Amazon, Hilary Mantel, Bring Up the Bodies: A Novel.



Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Everyone Loses in the U.S.-Chinese Clash?

I was just skimming through my old copies of Foreign Affairs and came across this piece, from last year, by Weijian Shan.

It's amazing how quickly it's out of date, and badly wrong, considering the corona epidemic and its effects. President Trump has always been a nationalist on trade, and while he's been woefully uneven on China --- both praising and disparaging Beijing, often during the same press conference --- the strategy that Shan denounces is exactly what the U.S. should pursue.

Here, "The Unwinnable Trade War: Everyone Loses in the U.S.-Chinese Clash—but Especially Americans":

The trade war has not really damaged China so far, largely because Beijing has managed to keep import prices from rising and because its exports to the United States have been less affected than anticipated. This pattern will change as U.S. importers begin to switch from buying from China to buying from third countries to avoid paying the high tariffs. But assuming China’s GDP continues to grow at around five to six percent every year, the effect of that change will be quite modest. Some pundits doubt the accuracy of Chinese figures for economic growth, but multilateral agencies and independent research institutions set Chinese GDP growth within a range of five to six percent.

Skeptics also miss the bigger picture that China’s economy is slowing down as it shifts to a consumption-driven model. Some manufacturing will leave China if the high tariffs become permanent, but the significance of such a development should not be overstated. Independent of the anxiety bred by Trump’s tariffs, China is gradually weaning itself off its dependence on export-led growth. Exports to the United States as a proportion of China’s GDP steadily declined from a peak of 11 percent in 2005 to less than four percent by 2018. In 2006, total exports made up 36 percent of China’s GDP; by 2018, that figure had been cut by half, to 18 percent, which is much lower than the average of 29 percent for the industrialized countries of the Organ-ization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Chinese leaders have long sought to steer their economy away from export-driven manufacturing to a consumer-driven model.

To be sure, the trade war has exacted a severe psychological toll on the Chinese economy. In 2018, when the tariffs were first announced, they caused a near panic in China’s market at a time when growth was slowing thanks to a round of credit tightening. The stock market took a beating, plummeting some 25 percent. The government initially felt pressured to find a way out of the trade war quickly. But as the smoke cleared to reveal little real damage, confidence in the market rebounded: stock indexes had risen by 23 percent and 34 percent on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, respectively, by September 12, 2019. The resilience of the Chinese economy in the face of the trade war helps explain why Beijing has stiffened its negotiating position in spite of Trump’s escalation.

China hasn’t had a recession in the past 40 years and won’t have one in the foreseeable future, because its economy is still at an early stage of development, with per capita GDP only one-sixth of that of the United States. Due to declining rates of saving and rising wages, the engine of China’s economy is shifting from investments and exports to private consumption. As a result, the country’s growth rate is expected to slow. The International Monetary Fund projects that China’s real GDP growth will fall from 6.6 percent in 2018 to 5.5 percent in 2024; other estimates put the growth rate at an even lower number. Although the rate of Chinese growth may dip, there is little risk that the Chinese economy will contract in the foreseeable future. Private consumption, which has been increasing, representing 35 percent of GDP in 2010 and 39 percent last year, is expected to continue to rise and to drive economic growth, especially now that China has expanded its social safety net and welfare provisions, freeing up private savings for consumption.

The U.S. economy, on the other hand, has had the longest expansion in history, and the inevitable down cycle is already on the horizon: second-quarter GDP growth this year dropped to 2.0 percent from the first quarter’s 3.1 percent. The trade war, without taking into account the escalations from September, will shave off at least half a percentage point of U.S. GDP, and that much of a drag on the economy may tip it into the anticipated downturn. (According to a September Washington Post poll, 60 percent of Americans expect a recession in 2020.) The prospect of a recession could provide Trump with the impetus to call off the trade war. Here, then, is one plausible way the trade war will come to an end. Americans aren’t uniformly feeling the pain of the tariffs yet. But a turning point is likely to come when the economy starts to lose steam.

If the trade war continues, it will compromise the international trading system, which relies on a global division of labor based on each country’s comparative advantage. Once that system becomes less dependable—when disrupted, for instance, by the boycotts and hostility of trade wars—countries will start decoupling from one another.

China and the United States are joined at the hip economically, each being the other’s biggest trading partner. Any attempt to decouple the two economies will bring catastrophic consequences for both, and for the world at large. Consumer prices will rise, world economic growth will slow, supply chains will be disrupted and laboriously duplicated on a global scale, and a digital divide—in technology, the Internet, and telecommunications—will vastly hamper innovation by limiting the horizons and ambitions of technology firms...

Blue Angels Cockpit Cam

Seen just now on Twitter:


Corona Bursts U.S. College Education Bubble

Lots of students want their money back, especially at those elite private colleges.

From Rana Foroohar, at the Financial Times, "Coronavirus bursts the US college education bubble: Soaring fees, worthless degrees and dicey investments have hurt the economy":

Bubbles are bursting everywhere and America’s most prestigious export — higher education — won’t be immune. Universities are like landlocked cruise ships: places with all-you-can-eat buffets and plenty of beer, but almost no way of social distancing.

Many colleges are considering running online classes into the autumn and beyond. But that requires additional resources that most are ill equipped to afford. Even before coronavirus, 30 per cent of colleges tracked by rating agency Moody’s were running deficits, while 15 per cent of public universities had less than 90 days of cash on hand.

Now, with colleges shuttered, revenues reduced, endowment investments plunging, and the added struggle of shifting from physical to virtual education, Moody’s has downgraded the entire sector to negative from stable. The American Council on Education believes revenues in higher education will decline by $23bn over the next academic year. In one survey this week, 57 per cent of university presidents said they planned to lay off staff. Half said they would merge or eliminate some programmes, while 64 per cent said that long-term financial viability was their most pressing issue. It’s very likely we are about to see the hollowing out of America’s university system.

US universities are world class. But the system as a whole is in trouble. Cost is a big part of the problem. I’ve written many times about the US’s dangerous $2tn student debt load. Soaring tuition fees, worthless degrees and dicey investments made by both universities and the government have become a huge headwind to economic growth and social mobility.

If you don’t believe me, take it from the New York Fed, which two years ago called out student debt and the dysfunctions of higher education as problems for the overall US economy. That’s a sad irony, given that a college degree is supposed to increase wealth and productivity. Unfortunately, the US system of higher education — like healthcare, housing, labour markets and so much else in America today — is bifurcated. Those with fancy brand-name degrees from top schools do great. So do many who attend high-quality, low-cost community and state programmes...
Keep reading.

Remote Learning Is Breaking Parents

This is too true. My 18 year old is trying to graduate high school, and this remote learning has been tough for him --- and my wife and I.

At NYT, "With Schools Shut by Coronavirus, Remote Learning Strains Parents":
Daniel Levin’s son, Linus, 7, was supposed to be doing math. Instead, he pretended to take a shower in the living room, rubbing a dry eraser under his arms like a bar of soap, which upset his 5-year-old sister, distracting her from her coloring.

As much as he tried, Mr. Levin, who lives in Brooklyn, could not get Linus to finish the math. His hopes for the reading assignment were not high, either.

“He’s supposed to map out a whole character trait sheet today,” Mr. Levin said one day last week. “Honestly, if he writes the name and the age of the character, I’ll consider that a victory.”

Ciarra Kohn’s third-grade son uses five different apps for school. Her 4-year-old’s teacher sends lesson plans, but Ms. Kohn has no time to do them.

Her oldest, a sixth-grader, has eight subjects and eight teachers and each has their own method. Sometimes when Ms. Kohn does a lesson with him, she’ll ask if he understood it — because she didn’t.

“I’m assuming you don’t, but maybe you do,” said Ms. Kohn, of Bloomington, Ill., referring to her son. “Then we’ll get into an argument, like, ‘No, mom! She doesn’t mean that, she means this!’”

Parental engagement has long been seen as critical to student achievement, as much as class size, curriculum and teacher quality. That has never been more true than now, and all across the country, moms and dads pressed into emergency service are finding it one of the most exasperating parts of the pandemic.

With teachers relegated to computer screens, parents have to play teacher’s aide, hall monitor, counselor and cafeteria worker — all while trying to do their own jobs under extraordinary circumstances. Essential workers are in perhaps the toughest spot, especially if they are away from home during school hours, leaving just one parent, or no one at all, at home when students need them most.

Kindergartners need help logging into Zoom. Seventh-graders need help with algebra, last used by dad circa 1992. “School” often ends by lunchtime, leaving parents from Long Island to Dallas to Los Angeles asking themselves the same question: How bad am I if my child plays Fortnite for the next eight hours?

Yarlin Matos of the Bronx, whose husband still goes to work as a manager at a McDonald’s, has seven children, ages 3 to 13, to keep on track. She spent part of her stimulus check on five Amazon Fire tablets because the devices promised by the city’s Education Department had not arrived.

Ms. Matos, a psychology major at Bronx Community College, said she must stay up late, sometimes until 3 a.m., trying to get her own work done.

“I had a breaking moment where I had to lock myself in the bathroom and cry,” she said. “It was just too much.”

Laura Landgreen, a teacher in Denver, always thought it strange that she sent her two sons, Callam Hugo, 4, and Landon Hugo, 7, off to school rather than home schooling them herself.

She doesn’t find it strange anymore. “My first grader — we would kill each other,” she said. “He’s fine at school, but here he has a meltdown every three seconds.”

“I need to teach other children,” she said...

Monday, April 27, 2020

Studs Terkel, Hard Times

At Amazon, Studs Terkel, Hard Times: An Oral History of the Great Depression.



Newport Beach Looking to Shut Down After Weekend Surge of Visitors (VIDEO)

It was bound to happen. The crowds have been massive, it not completely out of control, sheesh.

At CBS News 2 Los Angeles:



Joe Biden 'Credibly Accused' of Sexual Assault (VIDEO)

At AoSHQ, "Tara Reade's Former Neighbor Comes Forward to Say Reade Made the Same Allegation in the 90s," and "#DropOutBiden Hashtag Trends as Democrats "Grapple" With the Fact That Their Candidate Is Credibly Accused of Rape."





Jennifer Delacruz's Hot Monday Forecast

Here's the beautiful Ms. Jennifer, forecasting from home, for ABC News 10 San Diego:



Scientists Have Recreated Medieval Battles to Solve Debate Over Ancient Bronze Swords

At Instapundit, "I Love This":
Researchers commissioned the creation of seven bronze swords using traditional methods, then tested them out with the help of local experts used to setting up medieval combat reconstructions, applying techniques from the Middle Ages.

By analysing the marks and indents left on the weapons by the mock battles, and comparing them with a close-up study of 110 ancient Bronze Age swords found across Great Britain and Italy, the team was able to show that the patterns of wear did indeed match up with real combat techniques – indicating these weapons weren’t just ceremonial items...

Sunday, April 26, 2020

Playmate Iryna at the Beach

Here's the phenomenal lady again, pushing boundaries.

Wow!

Also, fully nude here, sheesh.

Cal State Fullerton is One of First in the Nation to Announce Fully Online Education for Fall Semester

I'm waiting to hear if my college is going to full online instruction in the fall. Our summer session for 2020 is already set for fully online remote teaching. It's a matter of time before more local colleges make such announcements, and so far Cal State Fullerton is the first in California.

At the Orange County Register, "Cal State Fullerton to start fall semester with virtual classrooms":

Cal State Fullerton plans to start the fall semester with virtual classrooms and will gradually ease restrictions when it is safe to do so, officials said Monday, April 20, in a virtual town hall for faculty and staff.

“We are assuming in the fall we will be virtual,” Provost Pamella Oliver said. “And of course, that can change depending on the situation, depending on what happens with COVID-19. But at this point that is what we are thinking.”

Oliver said the decision came amid a number of concerns, including the state’s ability to do sufficient testing and case tracking for the coronavirus to make sure it is safe to lift the shelter-in-place order for faculty, staff and students.

As for plans to gradually open the 40,000-student campus, the university must be able to ensure adequate physical and social distancing and also take into account that there could be spikes of the virus in the future that would require flexibility, she said.

The town hall, moderated by CSUF spokeswoman Ellen Treanor, also included President Fram Virjee, Vice President for Student Affairs Harry Le Grande and David Forgues, vice president of human resources, diversity and inclusion, answering questions from faculty and staff. Another virtual town hall for students is scheduled for Wednesday.

When making the decision to reopen, the university will heed the advice of state officials, the Chancellor’s Office, the Orange County Health Agency and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Forgues said.

The campus will look much different at that time, he said. Masks, gloves and other protective gear will be required or highly encouraged. Workplaces and classrooms will be configured based on social distancing, and faculty and staff may be required to work on a rotation or staggered hours or days, he said...
Still more.

Encinitas Cracks Down on Beachgoers (VIDEO)

Following-up, "Cooped-Up Coastal Californians Swarm the Beaches."

Authorities down in San Diego country are not cool. At all.

At 10 News San Diego:



Cooped-Up Coastal Californians Swarm the Beaches

When I'm out at the beach, I don't want worry about wearing a mask and "social distancing" at least six feet from everybody. What's the fun of it, unless you're going down there by yourself? Which I do sometimes now that I'm in my older years.

But as a teenager? No way. You're not going to quit putting sunscreen on your girlfriend's booty, nor stop throwing her in the water. Who wants that?

In any case, the verdict's still out on how well visitors kept to the state's social distancing protocols.

Meh. People are cooped-up and just want to have some fun in the sun, and enjoy a little freedom.

At LAT, "Ventura and Orange County beaches fill up as people seek relief from the heat and weeks of staying home."



Saturday, April 25, 2020

Did Coronavirus Hit Earlier?

In January, I had the worst flu I've every had. I was down for at least a week, laid out in bed, only drinking Seven-Up and eating Cheesehead string cheese sticks now and then.

My oldest son keeps saying I had COVID then, but my symptoms were classic flu-like. Just major, major cough and congestion, and I was expectorating the super yucky dark green mucus. I literally thought I was going to hospital, although I wasn't in much pain beyond the coughing, which was harsh.

Anyway, I just sent my son this piece, and he's yucking it up, telling my he's 95 percent sure I had corona, lol.

At NYT, "Amid Signs Coronavirus Came Earlier, Americans Ask: Did I Already Have It?":


New revelations have left people wondering about ailments early this year. Doctors are thinking back to unexplained cases. Medical examiners are looking for possible misdiagnosed deaths.

CHICAGO — In January, a mystery illness swept through a call center in a skyscraper on Michigan Avenue in Chicago. Close to 30 people in one department alone had symptoms — dry, deep coughs and fevers they could not shake. When they gradually returned to work after taking sick days, they sat in their cubicles looking wan and tired.

“I’ve started to think it was the coronavirus,” said Julie Parks, a 63-year-old employee who was among the sick. “I may have had it, but I can’t be sure. It’s limbo.”

The revelation this week that a death in the United States in early February was the result of the coronavirus has significantly altered the understanding of how early the virus may have been circulating in this country. Researchers now believe that hidden outbreaks were creeping through cities like Chicago, New York, Seattle and Boston in January and February, earlier than previously known.

The new timeline has lent credence to a question on the minds of many Americans: Did I already have the coronavirus?

The retroactive search is happening on many levels. People who had suffered dreadful bouts with flulike illnesses are now wondering whether it had been the coronavirus. Doctors are thinking back to unexplained cases. Medical examiners are poring over their records looking for possible misdiagnosed deaths. And local politicians are demanding investigations.

Brian Gustafson, a coroner in Rock Island County, Ill., said he had no capability to perform post-mortem coronavirus tests, but firmly believed that coronavirus deaths and illnesses were missed across the country during weeks, early this year, when the authorities believed the virus was mainly overseas.

Included in Mr. Gustafson’s suspicions of an undercount: himself. He is convinced that he had the coronavirus in January, when he was so crushingly tired and feverish, he could scarcely summon the strength to walk to the bathroom from his bed.

“I think it was here long before we knew it,” said Mr. Gustafson, who is also a nurse and said he believes that he contracted the virus from one of the recently deceased people who was brought to the coroner’s office long before anyone in Illinois was looking for positive coronavirus cases. “That’s the only logical thing I can think of.”

Some people have spent part of their days sheltering at home going over the details of their bouts with what could have been the coronavirus. In Rothschild, Wis., Tommie Swenson and his girlfriend, Tammy Swikert, keep thinking of the illness they contracted during the winter that spread widely through their village of 5,000 people.

It was nothing like the flu, said Mr. Swenson, a retired truck driver. Milk and soda tasted funny, or like nothing at all. He could barely sleep at night, he had such a rattling cough and felt a crushing weight on his chest.

“We talk about it all the time,” Mr. Swenson said. “What if we did have the coronavirus? Are we immune to it now, or are we going to catch it again? What does this mean?”

Infectious disease experts say the answer is complicated. Many believe that between five and 20 times more people have been exposed to the coronavirus than have tested positive, and there is a growing body of data to support that...
Still more.

I never lost my sense of taste or smell, so I'm still not convinced I had it. But no doubt there were corona deaths way before anyone appreciated the seriousness of the pandemic, or its deadliness.

To Survive, Independent Bookstores Get Creative

I'm actually enjoying working from home. I needed a break anyway. I was having anxiety attacks at the beginning of the semester, unrelated to corona, and my teaching was suffering from the decline of my health --- a first in my career.

And while there's no replacement for the dynamic interaction of the classroom setting, I've adapted pretty well to teaching online. Things have been going surprisingly well with my teaching, considering I've never done remote instruction before. I'm kind of proud of my progress. Frankly, it's been mostly self-learning. The training for distance education on my campus was extremely limited --- literally two hours of training on Canvas and faculty members were sent out on their own, the very week of the campus lockdown, to sink or swim.

In any case, amid all the lockdowns and social distancing, I miss going to bookstores perhaps the most. That, and stopping off at the sports bar in the afternoon to quaff an IPA and read a novel before heading home.

The bars will open back up, especially those that offer curbside pickup for food and alcohol orders (like B.J.'s Pizza in Irvine).

I'm not so sure about bookstores, though. In addition to Amazon, I've been buying books at my local favorite, the Bookman in Orange.

In any case, at Business Week, "Independent Bookstores Get Creative to Survive the Long Lockdown":


After several days of hunkering down at home in late March, this reporter decided it was time to seek out a few literary diversions to keep the coronavirus blues at bay—some novels for myself, mysteries for my 13-year-old, a nonfiction thriller for a friend’s birthday. Learning that Walden Pond Books, my favorite independent bookstore in Oakland, Calif., was closed but still taking orders for pickup, I phoned in my list and rode my bike to the normally laid-back shop. On the door was a very unmellow admonition: a cardboard sign blaring “DO NOT TOUCH DOOR HANDLE!!”

After putting on yellow rubber kitchen gloves, I knocked on the window, then stood several feet back. Soon a lone employee wearing a mask cracked open the door and asked for my name. I whispered it. A few minutes later, he reappeared carrying a brown paper bag and handed over the sanitized goods. Before taking it, I looked furtively around, half expecting to see cops.

“Two-thirds of my staff is laid off right now,” says Paul Curatolo, Walden Pond’s co-owner and manager, explaining the reason behind the shop’s speakeasy-like pickup strategy. “I can’t pay them for work I don’t have. But for every day that we’re closed, we are getting more phone calls.”

With much of the nation under strict stay-at-home orders, independent bookstores—which rely largely on foot traffic, browsing, and impulse buying—are struggling like never before. Amazon .com Inc. has long dominated book sales, and many independent shops are Luddite operations that lack robust websites, much less e-commerce operations.

To survive, they’ve had to get inventive in a hurry. Like Walden Pond, many are taking orders over the phone, then providing curbside pickup similar to the virus-impacted restaurants operating carryout only. Wheatberry Books in Chillicothe, Ohio, has launched a virtual storytime for children. Magic City Books in Tulsa is shipping curated “literary care packages” and announced a series of virtual author events. And scores of others, including Taylor Books in Charleston, W.Va., are turning to fundraisers via GoFundMe to stay afloat.

While the number of independent shops in the U.S. belonging to the American Booksellers Association is now more than 1,800, up from about 1,400 in 2009, the business is often fragile even in the best of times. Now the trade group warns that the Covid-19 crisis has put some of its members in grave danger, and many have embraced e-commerce in a bid to weather the long shutdowns.

“There’s been a drop in overall book sales as most bookstores are closed to the public right now, except for deliveries and curbside pickup, but a significant increase in online sales,” says Allison K Hill, chief executive officer of the booksellers’ association. “The online sales aren’t very profitable, though, as the cost to manage them is high and the margin is thin. Many independent bookstores will be dependent on government relief, fundraising, and support from their communities to survive.”

Many independent shops don’t have the staff, or the bandwidth, to constantly update websites, much less manage the inventory, shipping, and customer-service challenges that an e-commerce expansion brings...
Keep reading.

When the Bookman lost its lease at its Tustin Avenue location sometime back, the owners opened up a GoFundMe page to help finance the move to a new location. It took a while, but the store did reopen about a year ago at its current location on West Katella Avenue.

I picked up a book the other day. The store offers curbside pickup. You order by phone or online, and then phone ahead when you're ready to pick up. I got over there to pick up and the guy comes out with a mask on to hand me my book. It was unwrapped. I kicked in a large tip on top of the price, and sometime in the next few days I'm going to make a huge donation of books I'm currently cleaning out of my library.

That's the best I can do right now, other than to make more cash donations. Bookman's not opening up a GoFundMe page this time around, or if so I haven't heard about it. I don't know if a second time around would save the business.

So, support your local bookstores folks. Who knows how long the big corporate chains will last? Barnes and Noble might be going the way of Borders before you know it.

Coronavirus Slams the Behemoths of the Retail World

For department stores, things may never be the same --- particularly for those that survive.

At NYT, "The Death of the Department Store: ‘Very Few Are Likely to Survive’":

American department stores, once all-powerful shopping meccas that anchored malls and Main Streets across the country, have been dealt blow after blow in the past decade. J.C. Penney and Sears were upended by hedge funds. Macy’s has been closing stores and cutting corporate staff. Barneys New York filed for bankruptcy last year.

But nothing compares to the shock the weakened industry has taken from the coronavirus pandemic. The sales of clothing and accessories fell by more than half in March, a trend that is expected to only get worse in April. The entire executive team at Lord & Taylor was let go this month. Nordstrom has canceled orders and put off paying its vendors. The Neiman Marcus Group, the most glittering of the American department store chains, is expected to declare bankruptcy in the coming days, the first major retailer felled during the current crisis.

It is not likely to be the last.

“The department stores, which have been failing slowly for a very long time, really don’t get over this,” said Mark A. Cohen, the director of retail studies at Columbia University’s Business School. “The genre is toast, and looking at the other side of this, there are very few who are likely to survive.”

At a time when retailers should be putting in orders for the all-important holiday shopping season, stores are furloughing tens of thousands of corporate and store employees, hoarding cash and desperately planning how to survive this crisis. The specter of mass default is being discussed not just behind closed doors but in analysts’ future models. Whether or not that happens, no one doubts that the upheaval caused by the pandemic will permanently alter both the retail landscape and the relationships of brands with the stores that sell them.

At the very least, there is expected to be an enormous reduction in the number of stores in each chain, which once sprawled across the American continent like a pack of many-headed hydras.

Department store chains account for about 30 percent of the total mall square footage in the United States, with 10 percent of that coming from Sears and J.C. Penney, according to a January report from Green Street Advisors, a real estate research firm. Even before the pandemic, the firm expected about half of mall-based department stores to close in the next five years.

Even as they have worked to transform themselves for e-commerce with apps, websites and in-store exchanges, the outbreak has laid bare how dependent the department stores have remained on their physical outposts. Macy’s said on March 30 that after closing its stores for nearly two weeks, it had lost the majority of its sales.

The Commerce Department’s retail sales report for March, released last week, was disastrous. Overall retail sales numbers for this month are expected to be even worse, given that some stores were open for at least part of March.

Retailers have begun taking extreme measures to try to survive. Le Tote, a subscription clothing company that acquired Lord & Taylor last year from Hudson’s Bay, said in a memo on April 2 that the chain’s entire executive team, including the chief executive, would be let go immediately. It also suspended payments of goods to vendors for at least 90 days, citing “immense pressure on our liquidity position.”

Macy’s, which also owns Bloomingdale’s, extended payment for goods and services to 120 days from 60 days and, according to Reuters, has hired bankers from Lazard to explore new financing. Jeff Gennette, the chief executive, is forgoing any compensation for the duration of the crisis. The company was dropped from the S&P 500 last month based on its valuation.

J.C. Penney has hired Lazard, the law firm Kirkland & Ellis and the consultancy AlixPartners to explore restructuring options, according to two people familiar with the matter, and confirmed that it skipped an interest payment on its debt last week. It is expected to make a decision on what to do, including potentially filing for bankruptcy, within a few weeks, one of the people said.

But none of them were in as immediate dire straits as Neiman Marcus, which has both an enormous debt burden — about $4.8 billion, thanks in part to a leveraged buyout in 2013 by the owners Ares Management and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board — and a raft of expensive rents in the most high-profile shopping destinations, signed during boom times.

In late March, Neiman stopped accepting new merchandise and furloughed a large portion of its approximately 14,000 employees as the rumors of bankruptcy began to swirl. Its chief executive, Geoffroy van Raemdonck, announced that he was waiving his salary for April. The brand denied to vendors and its own employees at its sister brand Bergdorf Goodman that it was engaging advisers to explore a bankruptcy filing, but on April 14, S&P downgraded Neiman’s credit rating. Last week, the retailer did not make an interest payment that was due on April 15, angering bondholders and further fueling suspicions that a bankruptcy filing was imminent. A spokesperson for Neiman Marcus declined to comment...
Still more.

Danielle Mason

Wow!


Friday, April 24, 2020

Ann Althouse Visits Madison Anti-Shutdown Rally

See, "We drove up to the Wisconsin Capitol to see the anti-shutdown rally...... and from the completely closed car, I was able to get some photographs."



PHOTO CREDIT: Ann Althouse on Flickr.

Bridget Phetasy's 'Dumpster Fire'

She's a crazy chick! Remember she posted topless shots previously.

See, "Bridget Phetasy Posts 'Tasteful Nudes' at Patreon for Money, and Responds to Her 'Haters' With Topless Photo on Twitter."

And her topless nude shot here.