Gallup's New Hampshire Republican Vote Breakdown

The Gallup Poll has an interesting breakdown of the New Hampshire primary vote. Here's the take on the Republican side:

* McCain is the top choice among Republican men in New Hampshire; his lead is nine points over second-place Mitt Romney. McCain and Romney tie among women, each with 32% of the vote.

* Younger Republican voters (under age 50) are about equally likely to say they would vote for McCain as for Romney, but among older Republican voters (aged 50 and older), McCain has a significant lead, with Romney in second.

* McCain and Romney are roughly tied among Republican voters without college degrees. McCain leads other Republican candidates among college graduates and those with postgraduate educations.

* If McCain manages to win New Hampshire, it will be because of the independent voter. Among registered Republicans, McCain (32%) and Romney (31%) are evenly matched. But McCain has a clear advantage among independents, with 40% of these "undeclared" voters saying they would vote for him, compared with 25% for Romney.

* Mike Huckabee, the former Baptist minister, fares best among New Hampshire Republican voters who attend church every week, but still trails McCain and Romney among this group. McCain's support is slightly higher among those who rarely or never go to church, as is the case for Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani.

* The majority of Republican voters who say illegal immigration is their top vote issue this year (55%) say they plan to vote for Romney. McCain bests Romney and the other leading Republicans on terrorism and the economy.

* Voters who say the candidates' leadership skills are more important to their vote for president choose McCain as their preferred candidate, while those who say the candidates' issue stances are more important are more likely to pick Romney over any other candidate.

Survey Methods

The results for Republicans in this report are based on interviews conducted Jan. 4-6, 2008, with 776 New Hampshire residents deemed most likely to vote in the Republican primary. For this sample, the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ±4 percentage points.

The likely voter model assumes a turnout rate of 60% of those who say they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary, approximately 25% of New Hampshire adults. The likely voter results are weighted to match this assumption (weighted sample size is 732).

All results reported here are based on likely voters.

The results for Democrats in this report are based on interviews conducted Jan. 4-6, 2008, with 778 New Hampshire residents deemed most likely to vote in the Democratic primary. For this sample, the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ±4 percentage points.

The likely voter model assumes a turnout rate of 60% of those who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, approximately 25% of New Hampshire adults. The likely voter results are weighted to match this assumption (weighted sample size is 722).

All results reported here are based on likely voters.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Looking at the numbers one sees McCain vulnerable only on immigration, quite vulnerable, as a majority of 55 percent see immigration as their top issue. As the discussion above suggests, the Arizona Senator takes 4 out of 10 independent voters, who are considered key to a McCain victory.

McCain might be hoping for a bit of a nostalgia vote as well, a "those-were-the-days" vote, harking back to 2000. A bit of luck's going to help as well.

USA Today's discussion of the survey is here.