GOP Looking at Decisive New Hampshire Vote

Jackie Calmes argues the New Hampshire Republican vote is decisive, from the Wall Street Journal:

The outcome of tomorrow's close U.S. presidential primary vote in New Hampshire could be decisive for the Republicans: A loss for either John McCain or Mitt Romney may prove to be a mortal blow.

Mr. McCain, the Arizona senator, has made New Hampshire his make-or-break comeback state after his front-running campaign all but collapsed last summer. Yesterday he continued to gain in state polls and endorsements on Mr. Romney. But with no money and little organization elsewhere, even supporters concede tomorrow's vote is do or die.

"We gotta win in New Hampshire, we need to win in New Hampshire, I think we're gonna win in New Hampshire," said South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, campaigning up north for his Senate friend.

For Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, to lose the state next door would be humiliating -- all the more so after last week's upset loss to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Iowa's kickoff caucuses.

Mr. Romney had based his strategy on winning the first two states. Even before the Iowa defeat, he had lost his New Hampshire polling lead to a revived Mr. McCain. Now, with little time to brake Mr. McCain's momentum, he has been thrown on the defensive by all of his rivals, who sense blood.

Whatever happens in New Hampshire, the final McCain-Romney showdown could come next week in Michigan -- the state where Mr. Romney's father was governor, and which Mr. McCain won in his 2000 nomination fight against George W. Bush.

"Whoever loses" in New Hampshire "is mortally wounded and will probably be finished off in Michigan," predicts John Weaver, the chief strategist to Mr. McCain until the campaign ran aground last summer.

The Democrats' primary tomorrow also will be critical. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is trying to recover from her Iowa loss and winner Barack Obama, the Illinois senator, has erased her longtime polling lead here.

Yet uncommitted Democrats insist that Mrs. Clinton, with a machine co-piloted by former President Clinton and deep support nationally, could lose here on top of Iowa, lose the Democrats' Jan. 26 primary in South Carolina, and still win the nomination. She would do so on the strength of victories Feb. 5, "Super Tuesday," when more than 20 states hold contests. Mr. Clinton is reminding one and all that he lost five states in 1992 before winning one, yet went on to be president.

Complicating calculations, Democrat Obama and Republican McCain are competing across party lines for independents, who comprise the biggest voting bloc and can cast ballots in either primary. But unlike 2000, when Mr. McCain's maverick candidacy won their votes to pad his 19-point win over Mr. Bush, this year many independents are antiwar. Mr. McCain is perhaps the highest-profile supporter of the effort in Iraq. Polls show many leaning to Mr. Obama.

Romney backers hope Mr. Obama takes those votes. "Then the Republican primary will be very Republican, and that's good" for Mr. Romney, says Tom Rath, a prominent New Hampshire Republican who is a senior strategist for the campaign.

A second defeat for Mr. Romney "would be tough, but a strong second would mean that he could go on," says adviser Ben Ginsberg. He predicts a Romney win in Michigan and then "surprises" in South Carolina's Jan. 19 Republican primary, the first where he'll benefit from low expectations. Mr. Romney has struggled for support in South Carolina because he is suspect among many of the Christian conservatives so influential there, due to his support in Massachusetts for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control -- positions he has reversed -- and because of his Mormon faith.

Unlike Mr. McCain, whose campaign operates on credit and volunteer strategists, the wealthy Mr. Romney can continue to supplement his well-greased organization from his bankroll as contributions slack off. But without victories, he will find it hard to justify going on.

Also, the Republican establishment, long favorably inclined to Mr. Romney, now frets that the candidates' battle to date -- by highlighting his many policy flip-flops -- has damaged him as a potential nominee against the Democrats. If Mr. McCain were to make a comeback, Republicans say, he would regain his standing as the Republican most likely to beat a Democrat. That "electability" argument would power his candidacy in a field that many Republican voters view as flawed.

I'm feeling confident on McCain's chances, although I understand he's going to be a hard sell for a lot of conservatives.

Perhaps it's McCain's compromise on immigration reform; maybe it's the McCain-Feingold campaign finance legislation; or maybe it's the Arizona Senator's vote against the Bush tax cuts (which weren't matched with spending discipline). Who knows exactly? McCain stirs a lot of resentment, in any case (here and here, for example).

Yet, as I've noted, some conservatives are coming around to McCain's banner, and, of course, New Hampshire voters are backing the Arizona Senator in poll after poll, with USA Today's new survey showing McCain surging ahead of the pack on the eve of the New Hampshire vote.

I'm convinced that conservatives will see the light on McCain soon enough.