Wednesday, January 2, 2008

GOP's Rival Camps May Pose Problems in November

A few of the right tunes

This morning's Los Angeles Times suggests the Republican Party's divisions in the primaries could spell trouble come November. Here's the introduction:
The long-standing coalition of social, economic and national security conservatives that elevated the Republican Party to political dominance has become so splintered by the presidential primary campaign that some party leaders fear a protracted nomination fight that could hobble the eventual nominee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney aspires to build a conservative coalition in the mold of Ronald Reagan, but his past support of abortion rights gives many social conservatives pause. Mike Huckabee, a Southern Baptist minister, is a purist on social issues but has angered economic conservatives because he raised taxes while he was governor of Arkansas.

Former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona have tough-guy images and hawkish records, but many Republicans are wary of them because of their immigration and other policies.

The breach within the party was evident here Tuesday, two days before Iowa holds the first nominating contests of the presidential race, as Huckabee and Romney each sought to show he could reach across the conservative spectrum and unite Republicans, as did Reagan and George W. Bush in prior elections.

I've written previously about the GOP divide (see here and here, for example).

The problem's not just that no new Reagan has emerged to energize a broad, rejuvenated conservative movement. The GOP's at war with itself - it's a collection of narrow constituencies unmindful of Reaganesque big-tent politics.

Pro-life forces can't stand Rudy Giuliani. Tough-on-immigration activists feel betrayed by John McCain, who's seen as backing the Bush administration's alleged pro-amnesty alliance with liberals such as Teddy Kennedy. Fiscal conservatives and law-and-order hawks have hammered Mike Huckabee. Opposition to Huckabee's so intense that some conservatives are saying they'd rather vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election!

My hope, as I've stated before, is that the primary process isn't so divisive as to create irreparable damage to the nominee. That's wishful thinking, I guess, if early indicators on the eve of Iowa are any clue.

See more analysis at Memeorandum.

Photo Credit: Los Angeles Times

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