Iraq and the Election

Is Iraq off the political agenda for campaign '08?

Time has an analysis of the issue, with this week's Bush administration shuttle diplomacy to the Mideast the point of departure:

On his grand tour of the Middle East, George Bush was far away from the ground wars of the U.S. presidential campaign. Indeed, thanks to the success of the U.S. military surge, the war he started in Iraq is now a second-tier issue in American politics. But Iraq may become a resurgent factor in the strategies of those who want to succeed him in office. The "good news" of the surge and tentative steps forward in Iraqi internal politics may weigh on how voters view the politicians maneuvering to become the next President of the United States.

On Saturday, the current President stopped at the 3rd Army's Camp Arifjan in Kuwait to get a briefing on the war from Gen. David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, and to do some morale-boosting with the troops. He made the most the timing: his visit came just over a year since he announced the troop surge, and he reminded his audience that last year's strategy shift was initially scorned in the U.S. but has turned out to be remarkably effective. At the dusty rally with troops, flanked by an enormous American flag, Bush projected that success out into the future, saying history will judge that "victory was achieved by the U.S. military [in Iraq] for the good of the world."

The event was paralleled in Iraq with a political breakthrough of sorts: the parliament's unanimous passage of a law that allows former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party to take government jobs for which they have expertise and experience. The so-called de-Baathification of the Iraqi government after the fall of Saddam contributed significantly to the violent sectarian divisions of the country as well as to a collapse in the way the country was run. The new law is meant heal the rift between the Shi'ites who now dominate the government and the Sunnis who used to. "I come with an upbeat message," Bush said at the news of the passage of the Accountability and Justice law. It is, he said, "an important step towards reconciliation... an important sign that the leaders of that country must work together to meet the aspirations of the Iraqi people."

While Bush spoke of history's judgment, the short term may be more important right now for most Americans. If the last year in Iraq has changed the course of the war and the region's future, the next year in that country may determine who will succeed Bush in the White House. Petraeus and Crocker have started an analysis that will determine the troop levels through the heat of the election season from July through November. The success of the surge has diminished the role of Iraq in the U.S. campaign; but the political — and electoral — ramifications of the next decision on troop levels remain an open question. Bush even said Saturday that the current draw down, which is expected to bring troops to pre-surge levels by July, and as low as 100,000 by the end of the year, could be reversed if Petraeus decides he needs to beef back up.

Despite left-wing spin to the contrary, the war will be a political plus for Republicans heading into November.

Certainly, events on the ground - security and stability - will shape political perceptions at home. But there should be no mistake that the Bush administration and GOP backers were right that the war was not lost. The effects of the strategic shift under General Petraeus have been dramatic and were unanticipated by most political actors. The military is currently not rushing to redeploy, and if the continued progress in Iraqi political cooperation holds, we'll see more and more evidence that this war is being won.

Republican candidates can take that to the bank in November.

Photo Credit: Time